Belmont Race 8, The Frizette
Sky Diva? The public, and the Turk, liked the 5-10 combo, I didn't see the 1 horse at all. The 1-5-10 exacta paid a nice $58.20. A good quality video feed through Twin Spires showed the 10 horse, Gemswick Park shot from the far outside post, and then put up some really fast fractions, at 22.3 and 45.4. Sky Diva had a ground saving trip and then exploded. Persistantly, the 5 horse, closed like a freight train and I'm looking forward to calculating his last 1/4 mile pace.
I never saw Sky Diva coming. His only previous win, his maiden breaker, left us with this PP comment "won in handy fashion." Ditto in this race.
Showing posts with label Frizette. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Frizette. Show all posts
Saturday, October 4, 2008
October 4th, 2008: BEL Race 9
G1, The Champagne for 2yos. 1 Mile on Main track.
For all the horses, this is a new distance. Some strong Beyer's in this group as well, and 6 of the 10 horses have run and G2 or G1 level.
I have a contrarian position the chalk. I like the 7 horse Ventana, whose ML is 8-1. This Baffert horse won at 6f his last time out and since has had a string of consitant and solid works atBelmont. I'll be looking for real value here on a win bet.
The Morning Line set by the track was contrarian in its own right. Hello Broadway, a half brother of Nobiz Like Showbiz and trained by Barclay Tagg, has the 6th best Beyer in the race, but there is lots to like and little seperating the talent. Hello Braodway in the 4 post won at Saratoga on 30 August at 61/2f where he really dug his heels in and gutted out the victory. He's had a string of solid works at Belmont as well and will go well today. There should be value still for a chalk whose only at 3.5-1. If he's pressed down >4.5-1 I think you have to think hard on him.
The only G1 winner of this bunch is the 3 horse, Vineyard Haven, winner of the Hopeful at Saratoga on 1 September. The knock on this win was that Cribnote was distracted and Munnings stumbled out of the gate. It's empty talk with such a small sample size of races to compare these horses with. The Turk dropped a buck and a half at Equibase getting a race chart and all it really told me was the Hopeful was packed with some quality horses. I'm hoping that money chases this horse down from its ML of 8-1, allowing some opportunies to arise elsewhere. At a minimum, he creates bettor anxiety.
Cribnote follows up that G1 debacle with blinkers on today. He owns the second best Beyer in the race and fought hard on the stretch to finish second in the Hopeful. He's starts the day at 4-1.
Munnings goes from the 10 post and his ML is 6-1. His third place, 75 Beyer in the Hopeful came six weeks after he had a 90 Beyer as the chalk to break his maiden. The horse has had steady works since the Hopeful and will have a new jock today.
That's a much bigger A Group then I'd like. The B Group is narrow:
Breakwater Edison ran in the Hopeful as well, finishing 4th after fading in the last few hops to the wire. He has a new rider today and has worked steady at Belmont for at least two weeks. His best Beyer was 89 in a G2 the race before the Hopeful. His ML is a low 12-1 and he starts in post 1
Brave Victory is a horse that I could argue is the dark chalk. He owns the best Beyer of 93, and before that he had a 91 and a 75 since mid July. Nick Zito is having a tough Belmont meet at 8% wins after 13 races, and he saddles a new jock today as Prado is aboard Vineyard Haven for this trip. This is the horse's first taste of a graded stakes race. Brave Victory breaks from the 8 spot and his ML is 6-1. We'll be watching this for a reasonable value play on a win bet.
Gone Astry goes off from ML 8-1 from the 9 post. He ran a 90 Beyer in front of the Turk at Saratoga on Traver's day and followed it up with an 83 in the G2 Futurity that Charitable Man won. he had a 4f bullet, besting 60 other horses on 30 September. I'm wondering if a fast surface today doesn't propell him back into the 90's?
The line between C and D group is blurry and I'll lump them together. A.P. Cardinal has shown nothing to get me excited. He does have stedy consistant works and coming off his maiden breaking win at 6f with a beyer of 64 on a fast track at Monmouth in mid September. His ML is 20-1 and I agree.
Girolamo is ridden today by Alan Garcia (16%) for Kiran McLaughlin(14%). He finished fourth in a G2 race Charitable Man won on 13 September at Belmont. He's a 10-1 ML and has had a consistant string of mid 80 Beyer's. Not sure if he isn't just a consistant also ran.
So....
I'm looking for $2 for Ventana to win if I get >7-1 (probable)
I'm looking for $2 for Cribnote to win if I get > 6-1 (possible, not likely)
I'm looking for $2 for Vineyard Haven if I get >6-1 (possible)
I'm looking for $2 for Gone Astry or Brave Victory only if both >10-1 (doubtful)
I will bet a 7-3 exacta (Ventana and Vineyard Haven) for $2
I'll keep it to six bucks and hope for the best.
For all the horses, this is a new distance. Some strong Beyer's in this group as well, and 6 of the 10 horses have run and G2 or G1 level.
I have a contrarian position the chalk. I like the 7 horse Ventana, whose ML is 8-1. This Baffert horse won at 6f his last time out and since has had a string of consitant and solid works atBelmont. I'll be looking for real value here on a win bet.
The Morning Line set by the track was contrarian in its own right. Hello Broadway, a half brother of Nobiz Like Showbiz and trained by Barclay Tagg, has the 6th best Beyer in the race, but there is lots to like and little seperating the talent. Hello Braodway in the 4 post won at Saratoga on 30 August at 61/2f where he really dug his heels in and gutted out the victory. He's had a string of solid works at Belmont as well and will go well today. There should be value still for a chalk whose only at 3.5-1. If he's pressed down >4.5-1 I think you have to think hard on him.
The only G1 winner of this bunch is the 3 horse, Vineyard Haven, winner of the Hopeful at Saratoga on 1 September. The knock on this win was that Cribnote was distracted and Munnings stumbled out of the gate. It's empty talk with such a small sample size of races to compare these horses with. The Turk dropped a buck and a half at Equibase getting a race chart and all it really told me was the Hopeful was packed with some quality horses. I'm hoping that money chases this horse down from its ML of 8-1, allowing some opportunies to arise elsewhere. At a minimum, he creates bettor anxiety.
Cribnote follows up that G1 debacle with blinkers on today. He owns the second best Beyer in the race and fought hard on the stretch to finish second in the Hopeful. He's starts the day at 4-1.
Munnings goes from the 10 post and his ML is 6-1. His third place, 75 Beyer in the Hopeful came six weeks after he had a 90 Beyer as the chalk to break his maiden. The horse has had steady works since the Hopeful and will have a new jock today.
That's a much bigger A Group then I'd like. The B Group is narrow:
Breakwater Edison ran in the Hopeful as well, finishing 4th after fading in the last few hops to the wire. He has a new rider today and has worked steady at Belmont for at least two weeks. His best Beyer was 89 in a G2 the race before the Hopeful. His ML is a low 12-1 and he starts in post 1
Brave Victory is a horse that I could argue is the dark chalk. He owns the best Beyer of 93, and before that he had a 91 and a 75 since mid July. Nick Zito is having a tough Belmont meet at 8% wins after 13 races, and he saddles a new jock today as Prado is aboard Vineyard Haven for this trip. This is the horse's first taste of a graded stakes race. Brave Victory breaks from the 8 spot and his ML is 6-1. We'll be watching this for a reasonable value play on a win bet.
Gone Astry goes off from ML 8-1 from the 9 post. He ran a 90 Beyer in front of the Turk at Saratoga on Traver's day and followed it up with an 83 in the G2 Futurity that Charitable Man won. he had a 4f bullet, besting 60 other horses on 30 September. I'm wondering if a fast surface today doesn't propell him back into the 90's?
The line between C and D group is blurry and I'll lump them together. A.P. Cardinal has shown nothing to get me excited. He does have stedy consistant works and coming off his maiden breaking win at 6f with a beyer of 64 on a fast track at Monmouth in mid September. His ML is 20-1 and I agree.
Girolamo is ridden today by Alan Garcia (16%) for Kiran McLaughlin(14%). He finished fourth in a G2 race Charitable Man won on 13 September at Belmont. He's a 10-1 ML and has had a consistant string of mid 80 Beyer's. Not sure if he isn't just a consistant also ran.
So....
I'm looking for $2 for Ventana to win if I get >7-1 (probable)
I'm looking for $2 for Cribnote to win if I get > 6-1 (possible, not likely)
I'm looking for $2 for Vineyard Haven if I get >6-1 (possible)
I'm looking for $2 for Gone Astry or Brave Victory only if both >10-1 (doubtful)
I will bet a 7-3 exacta (Ventana and Vineyard Haven) for $2
I'll keep it to six bucks and hope for the best.
October 4th 2008: BEL Race 8
Belmont Race 8: The Frizette, for 2yo Fillies, 1 mile on main track.
The Turk likes to crunch data, and two year old fillies racing in early October don't give you alot of PP data that easily digestible. You have to look at alot of angles and these races are time consuming for the studious Turk. The Little Turk will undoubtedly spend 20 seconds and pick a horse to show, but then again, he's my boy.
I see to pretty classy and consistant horses in this group. The Morning Line chalk is the 5 horse, Persistently. She's a closer riden by Alan Garcia for 3 races now, including a G2 place on 13 September against a really game Doremi...(great race call by the way). It's a new distance, but she has improving Beyer's including the races second best at 85 her last time out. She's aclimated to Belmont and I think the money will chase her down below 2-1.
The only A horse I see is in the 10 spot, Gemswick Park. She's aclimated to Belmont and owns the race's highest Beyer at 91 her last time out. She'll have a new jock I recok, it's a new distance, and its her first Graded Stakes event. She has early speed and will need it from her starting position. I'm looking for value better then here 3.5-1 Morning Line and will bet to win if >4-1.
the rest of the field did little to inspire me. I have two B horses. In the 3 spot is War Echo,owner of a lifetime best 70 Beyer after 2 races. She did run this course and distance to win her last time out. Asmussen owns a gaudy 50% win rate this meet. Would have like to have seen longer, harder drills since 10 September.
My other B is in the 2 post, Royal Ballade. She has a 65 Beyer in her only race and has never faced a Graded Stakes group. It's a new distance with a new jockey. Her ML is 6-1 and I'm guessing she'll go lower. She's worth a flyer at better then 8-1.
The C group includes the following in no particular order:
The 1 horse, Sky Diva. She's ran the distance but she has a lot to overcome
The 4 horse, Miss Ocean City. Very sharp work and she ran an 81 in July to break her maiden.
The 6 horse, Collegiate, ran a 91 in July to break her maiden at 5f but has regressed in longer races.
The 9 horse, Heavenly Vision, ran an 81 in August at 6f to break her maiden, but never challenged in the G2 Matron. A new jock for Bob Baffert's (36% win at meet) filly.
My D group includes the 8 horse, Coffee in Bed. She's got consistent mediocre Beyer's, but she did break her maiden at a mile and 70 yards last time out. I think she's in over her head.
And finally, the 7 horse, Winning Brew. She is intriguing. She puts blinkers on today. She had a strong work at 5f a few days ago. She ran a G1, the Spinaway, in August. Betting her would be a blind shot in the dark, but the price will be very big.
All that said and the Turk can't argue against the ML Chalk, Persistently. I'm going to bet a 5-10 exacta and/or a 5-10-3 trifecta.
The Turk likes to crunch data, and two year old fillies racing in early October don't give you alot of PP data that easily digestible. You have to look at alot of angles and these races are time consuming for the studious Turk. The Little Turk will undoubtedly spend 20 seconds and pick a horse to show, but then again, he's my boy.
I see to pretty classy and consistant horses in this group. The Morning Line chalk is the 5 horse, Persistently. She's a closer riden by Alan Garcia for 3 races now, including a G2 place on 13 September against a really game Doremi...(great race call by the way). It's a new distance, but she has improving Beyer's including the races second best at 85 her last time out. She's aclimated to Belmont and I think the money will chase her down below 2-1.
The only A horse I see is in the 10 spot, Gemswick Park. She's aclimated to Belmont and owns the race's highest Beyer at 91 her last time out. She'll have a new jock I recok, it's a new distance, and its her first Graded Stakes event. She has early speed and will need it from her starting position. I'm looking for value better then here 3.5-1 Morning Line and will bet to win if >4-1.
the rest of the field did little to inspire me. I have two B horses. In the 3 spot is War Echo,owner of a lifetime best 70 Beyer after 2 races. She did run this course and distance to win her last time out. Asmussen owns a gaudy 50% win rate this meet. Would have like to have seen longer, harder drills since 10 September.
My other B is in the 2 post, Royal Ballade. She has a 65 Beyer in her only race and has never faced a Graded Stakes group. It's a new distance with a new jockey. Her ML is 6-1 and I'm guessing she'll go lower. She's worth a flyer at better then 8-1.
The C group includes the following in no particular order:
The 1 horse, Sky Diva. She's ran the distance but she has a lot to overcome
The 4 horse, Miss Ocean City. Very sharp work and she ran an 81 in July to break her maiden.
The 6 horse, Collegiate, ran a 91 in July to break her maiden at 5f but has regressed in longer races.
The 9 horse, Heavenly Vision, ran an 81 in August at 6f to break her maiden, but never challenged in the G2 Matron. A new jock for Bob Baffert's (36% win at meet) filly.
My D group includes the 8 horse, Coffee in Bed. She's got consistent mediocre Beyer's, but she did break her maiden at a mile and 70 yards last time out. I think she's in over her head.
And finally, the 7 horse, Winning Brew. She is intriguing. She puts blinkers on today. She had a strong work at 5f a few days ago. She ran a G1, the Spinaway, in August. Betting her would be a blind shot in the dark, but the price will be very big.
All that said and the Turk can't argue against the ML Chalk, Persistently. I'm going to bet a 5-10 exacta and/or a 5-10-3 trifecta.
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