The Nomination Is In: The Connaught Cup G2 at Woodbine

 Welcome Friends to The Turk blog.  I've been a handicapper since 1986 and a Horse Racing Blogger since 2008 with a general specialization of older horses running across a route of grass with exacta bet constructions.  I've been flexing my turf sprint chops over the last few weeks for a change of pace as I like to make sure I don't ignore my handicapping on these sort of races.  I've been handicapping for a long time, and my approach to how I analyze a race has been refined over a long period of time.  My influences are pretty standard for handicappers of my generation: Tom Ainslie, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz.  My own derivative method is to break down these races for Early and Late Speed, Class, Distance, Form and Work, Jockey and Jockey/Trainer stats.  I video handicap when I have time and I feel like I need more context.  I block and I tackle.  What I don't do is handicap looking at the Morning Line, nor do I read articles about the races or the runners before I handicap.  I try to leave other's bias out of my analysis and only deal with my own inherent biases.  

Woodbine is the closest major track to The Turk's home base of Western New York.  I had the pleasure of going to the Fort Erie Race Track last week, the first time since COVID ended.  I learned to play sprints by playing Fort Erie ad nauseum when I was younger.  It's a wonderful track with an uncertain future.  

Today's 7f, 1 turn Connaught Cup Stakes G2 at Woodbine has a nice 10 horse field with a 9 YO favorite, Wesley Ward's Bound for Nowhere, to me sets up a great chance to bet against the old veteran son of The Factor.

Let's get after it!

Connaught Cup G2:  WO 7f on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up

Years ago when I stopped handicapping with any foreknowledge of the Morning Lines, I learned that I was able to spot under and overlays easier.  That said, I had to develop my ability to handicap and set my own fair lines.  In today's race War Bomber (Ire) jumped off the page to me as an overlay.  Let's take a look at his last time out on the Canada Day holiday, the  1 1/8 mile Dominion Day G3 on fake dirt.  

Cutting back will only help, as the blistering 1:11 3/4 mile pace he's up for, just not much beyond that. Good early speed, should be forwardly placed.  20-1 Morning Line,  3 wins in five WO starts, 3 wins in 7 turf starts, winless in two  2023 starts.  I like for a win bet at the right price.  Jock Civaci jumps to Lucky Score, so he's most likely skeptical too!

Lucky Score and Dream for Tomorrow will be respected by the bettors. Lucky Score is moving up a furlong in distance (unraced previously a 7f) but is 4 of 6 Win/Place at WO and over turf and hit triple digit Beyer last time out, also on Canada Day, the Grade 2 Highlander, 6f over grass.  

 

That was a hell of a ride by Civaci to win at the wire at $14.30.  Dreams for Tomorrow has 25% winner Patrick Husband, up, for McGaughey who ships in. The 6 YO is cutting back 1f.  Should be tactical and within a few lengths of the lead at top of stretch and possesses excellent closing speed from there.     

Bound for Nowhere is my kind of horse.  The 9 YO won a G2 last year here at Woodbine but is off to a slow start in 2023.  Adding distance from past two race 5.5f affairs. Dangerous, but I'm skeptical.  

It's a deep race.  Churchtown cuts back 1f and is starting off an 80 day layoff, but training sharply at WO since mid June.  Attfield wins 20% of stake races but has only had 2 turf sprints over a rolling year, of which he has yet to win.  5 of 6 Win/Place over Turf, 2 of 2 Win/Place at WO.  

My last serious consideration is Dream Shake, only second turf start, a surface he is a maiden on.  Ran and won a 7f fake dirt OC50K on 2 July.  Fascinating, but I like to see some success first.  

So what am I doing with all this?  A win bet for War Bomber (Ire) as long as I'm >8-1.  My exacta will be Lucky Score wheeled with War Bomber, Dreams of Tomorrow, Churchtown and Dream Shake.  I'm ignoring Bound for Nowhere at my own peril, I just don't like anywhere near 8-5

Have fun friends!

Turk Out

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Downs Tourist Mile $750K

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now in our 9th Year and 11th month of providing horse handicapping and bet construction to people who neither asked for it nor read it much anymore!

The Turk absolutely loves the quirky turf only track in Franklin, Kentucky, Kentucky Downs. Quite frankly the only thing I don't like about this boutique meet is how short it is, as I'm always left wanting for more.  I'll be playing at least Race 7 (One Dreamer 250K, For F&M 3 YO and Up that haven't won a sweepstakes in 2018 and Race 8, The Tourist Mile 750K for 3 YO and Up, which I'm blogging the details of today.

Are you familiar with Kentucky Downs?  The video below gives you a feel for the Euro flavor sweeping first turn and the tighter second turn.  As well, last year's Tourist Mile is below for familiarization.  The only horse running back in the Tourist Mile is 5 YO Bandar.  Master Merion, a 4 Yo Quality Road gelding trained by Wesley Ward has a win in his only start here while Mr. Cub is 1 win in 2 starts here, a 125K ALW last year at 1 mile on good turf where he pressed the pace all the way before shaking clear as a 4-1 carrying 118# (125# today).   




2017 Kentucky Downs Tourist Mile; For 3 YOs and Up; Turf listed as Good




I went through quite a bit of analysis that was originally developed by Dick Downey of the Downey Profile.  You'll find Dick's Twitter feed here.

You find entries, scratches and changes and track condition here.  The weather looks right now to be wet and I would suspect the track will not be firm.  Let's get after it!

UPDATE 3:00 PM ET:  SCRATCH 2 Master Merion.  Turf FIRM. 




Mr. Misunderstood is having a wonderful turf career: 11 of 13 in the money over grass with 10 wins, setting his best 101 speed rating in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile at Kee.  This is a class drop for him, even from his second to last time out win in the Grade 2 Wise Dan at CD in June and his win in the Ellis Park Preview Mile for Kentucky Downs 26 days ago.

In general you'll note the Turk's Fair Line doesn't show much separation;  72.63% chance my top four wins.  This excites me thinking about the Will Pays on Exacta betting for multiple value combinations.

Mr. Cub is 8 of 14 lifetime in the money over turf, 3 of 3 lifetime at the distance and has a one mile win pressing the pace over good grass a year ago.  The 4 YO Artie Schiller gelding runs back on a 3 week layoff after a dull effort in Lure 100K, 1 1/16 Miles over good turf at SAR.



The running line calls his lost momentum a bobble.  It looked to me like a bobble or he just lost footing on his hard inside line, but whatever the horse was in front on a soft pace and at the top of the stretch dropped back to last quickly.

Bound for Nowhere, talk about a class drop, from a 6F  good turf race at Ascot to Franklin!  He ran a big race in field of 12.



118 Early US Timeform pace.  Distance increase, stretching out from his comfort zone of 5-6 F which makes some sense as the 4 Yo son of The Factor.  Julio Garcia is back up for Wesley Ward, and the combo are 41% winners  on 86 starts over past year all tracks. Here they win the Shakertown Stakes G2 at KEE, 5 1/2 Furlongs over soft footing.  Watch him explode in the straight.




Ken and Sarah Ramsey's Camelot Kitten has a very good late turn of foot with a 113 late Timeform pace fig. 1 win in last 9 starts, a fake dirt Turfway Park win in the Kentucky Cup Classic 100K.  4 wide in the last turn and his closing speed on full display.  I don't like the lack of winning, and he hasn't even been in the money but the one time in last 9 races




Krampus cuts back in distance while increasing in class.  He won last time out at 1 1/8th pressing the pace with an 89 Beyer over firm turf in a 62K OC N2X.  The 4 Yo gelded son of Shakespeare has 4 wins and is in the money 6 out of 8 starts over grass.

Master Merion, a gelded 4 Yo Quality Road ( a Turk favorite runner and a damn fine sire) is 10 of 11 in the money over grass and 4 of 5 in the money at the distance with a win at Kentucky Downs in one start.  He's also first time back from Ascot for Wesley Ward but didn't do as well as Bound for Nowhere.  Last turf win was a Breeders' Cup Weekend undercard race, Let It Ride Stakes 79K at Del Mar at 1 Mile over firm turf. I may have him too low and is a live threat at least for Place and Show.





Finally Great Wide Open (Ire) has one win in last 11, 4 wins in 24 turf starts and the 6 YO comes in on a 61-180 day break (June 23).  Big early Timeform Pace of 124.  Last few running lines: "....drifted...faltered late...no response...weakened late....game and faded.."  The "game" was his last win, 1 mile 80K OC on turf at FG.  Eh.

I tossed Bandar from contention at my own peril

I'm not sure what I'm doing yet with this one.  I'm thinking about $8-10 of Exactas and $4 of Win Bets defensively bet.  I want to get a better feel for the surface and the Will Pays before committing.

Have Fun, Turk Out!