Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: Turf

The 'Ol Turk will be handicapping and hunting for exotic payout Nirvana at the Breeders' Cup, and Handicappers Homework before the Past Performances are printed and red ink is applied to them aids the process.

It goes without saying, the Europeans add a real layer of complexity to the handicapping. Speaking as a bettor, I think it helps that there is a real visceral feeling out there that the Europeans on turf are vastly superior. Maybe they are, and let the big money flow to them, it will be our job with the homework to know as much as we can about them so we can determine which North American runner has a chance, as an overlay, of taking down the house.

Nathaniel, trained by John Gosden in the King George and Queen E Stakes. Caution, poor Rewilding is seen breaking down. If you have a moment, read the comments of Trainer John Gosden, one of the Turk's favorite conditioners. I admire this man greatly.



Sea Moon is trained by Sir Michael Stout. The colt would be coming in off a Show finish in the St. Leger.



I've found some comments related to Sea Moon's stamina, which Trainer Stoute seems to dismiss and the connections intentions for the Breeders' Cup seem to be firmed up as well.

St Nicholas Abby is trained by Aidan O'Brien. The Montjeu colt was fifth in the Arc. Don't look for the filly Danedream in Louisville but Treasure Beach we'll get too.



All this does is state the obvious, that with defections, we may see some horses in the Turf that will be looking at the race as chalk free and opportunity city. We have to keep in mind that not every European sent here is top tier.

Aidan O'Brien's other expected starter is Treasure Beach who is starting in Woodbine on October 16th. Some pretty darn good horses, including possible turf starter Dean's Kitten, went into the gate on Arlington Millions Day and here is Treasure Beach taking the Secretariat Stakes



And another strong Treasure Beach effort, the Irish Derby.



Winchester would be coming in off a horrid Joe Hirsch, but Belmont that day was a bog with no real turf pace. Look for Dean's Kitten again. Don't worry handicapping poor Cape Blanco, that fine horse was retired after this effort because of injury.



Winchester was much stronger in the Sword Dancer. Look for Teak's North as well, another possible Turf starter.



And the United Nations, Teak's North punches his ticket for the Turf.



And speaking of punching tickets, Celtic New Year earned a trip to the Turf with a win in Del Mar, in the Del Mar Handicap. A great trip but really gutty holding off Bourbon Bay.



What I've taken away from this is so far I see no real favorite and I'm sure the next week will be interesting, as some folks out there who didn't consider this race may not start to look at this as the wide open affair it is shaping up to be and may take a swing at it. Building a Superfecta out of this may be really challenging but we could be looking at a five figure Super so its worth the try.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 13, 2011: The Arlington Millions and the Anatomy of the Bet

I love Arlington Park. It's a real treat for me to go to a track that gets it so well. I love buying my seats online, getting a box for seven so I can stretch out and spread out, just like if I'm at my kitchen table. I appreciate the kind and hard working folks that come and take my order and entertain me with stories of high rollers, real and imagined. I could prattle on about not enjoying the poly track, but I'd be lying: I've grown use to it and I think it plays pretty fair. I come for that lush green turf. I come for that magnificent paddock. and I come for the people I meet and the city that doesn't appreciate it enough.

Yeah I'm a bit giddy, but that's what winning my first Super High Five bet has done for me. Readers of the Turk will remember that I kicked myself rather hard for leaving my 1991 annual salary on the table by not placing the Super High Five Bet on the Preakness when I had the sequence nailed. I was livid with myself in May and I've waited for an opportunity to wipe this shame off my handicappers report card.

When preparing my handicap for The Thorofan's Handicappers Corner, I completed my base handicap and concluded that just betting a trifecta wasn't going to be worth it: I didn't see any scenario where some real long money was going to crack the ticket. I decided early on that this was my Super High Five Moment. But how to bet is the question. Taking the top six of the base handicap and boxing them is not an option as to that would cost you $720.

Let's get after how I approached that.



My base handicap is a breakdown of the layers of expected finish in the field. I had a WTF moment a few blog entries back and explained my layer handicapping philosophy. As a layer handicapper, I'm less concerned about the actual winner and more interested in "slotting" the horses properly and then having them finish within their slot somewhere, anywhere. I'm seldom emotionally wrapped up with having to have a horse win. Perhaps Zenyatta at the Breeders' Cup Classic was the last time I felt that pang. I have my favorites; my sentimentality is what makes me a fan, being a cold hearted calculator is what makes me a good bettor.

I wanted my risk exposure to be much less than $720 and I started by eliminating some horses who I didn't think would win and I scratched Dean's Kitten and Wigmore Hall from the WIN spot. This isn't a smart move, but its a fiscally sound move. The way you get to a $50,000 high five is by having $19.30 to 1 shot Dean's Kitten win. That said, I didn't want to spend $720 and someone had to get chopped.

Next I make a stand at who won't finish Exotic-Fifth. If I'm going to chop the long shots from winning, it doesn't make much sense to have the Chalk and Place contenders fifth. That eliminated Gio Ponti and Cape Blanco. This isn't a smart move either but hey, listen to me, unless you want to spend $720 you have to make tough choices. This is gambling after all.

Those trims of the WIN and the Fifth Spot took the bet down to $288. While not outside my price range, I thought it was too much of a capital risk and wanted it a bit smaller.

I took the red pen and took the biggest stand that would determine if I won or lost: I eliminated Gio Ponti from any finish except Win and Place. I also eliminated Wigmore Hall and Dean's Kitten from Place.

Sitting at $152, I rested.



What went right? Discounting Zack Hall (Fr) completely and putting Dean's Kitten, who I thought was way too low at a Morning Line 50-1 in the top six. The turf was much softer than I predicted Thursday night and that played to our Euro friends. I also paid attention to the turf conditions and reduced the chance Cape Blanco would drop.

What went wrong? I thought the turf would be a little firmer and Mission Approved's speed would carry far enough. He dropped like a rock in the stretch. Respecting Rahystrada from 1-5. I really thought he could be the value driver.

I've had a full weekend with friends and family. For only having time to handicap and bet one race, I'm feeling pretty good about this.

Enjoy the day, Turk Out!