The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga

Signing Line

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, I am the Big Turk and my son, The Korean,  is the Little Turk.  At 16 years old The Little Turk has been to plenty of Grade 1 races and hit plenty of cold exactas.  The kid has the stuff.  Me?  I'm a internet hack handicapper, old school, with a style that is a derivative of the techniques taught by my favorite handicappers, men like Brad Free and Tom Ainsile, Steve Davidowitz and Alan Shuback.  My blog, The Turk and the Little Turk, has been producing handicaps for people who never asked for them since 2008.  No self promotion, no pink sheets, no subscriptions, no high brow prose, just plain talk, handicapping based on form factors I consider key drivers and bet construction that is often too conservative, yet has produced  positive ROI over a long period of time.

Thanks to the good people at The Thorofan who allow me an opportunity to talk horses with you.  I'm a bit of a loner.  I like to go to the track, but when I go, I'm seldom working as a handicapper.  When I go, I'm a fan, there for the horses, the people, the relaxed nature and the rhythm of race day.    I do my best handicapping away from the track, in solitude, at my kitchen table, late in the evening.  Meets like Saratoga appeal to the fan in me.  I love Saratoga and it's really the track that became ground zero in my horse racing romance when I used to live on Jumel Place and walk to the track, summer of 1986.  It's been 30 years since I was a resident of Saratoga, a young man with a Skiddy Kiddy girlfriend, a fast car, plenty of cash, a mean grove dancing at The Metro and time to kill.  The city has a special place in my heart even if the track seems designed to stab me in the heart.  You see, I'm not that good at Saratoga.  My ROI at Saratoga is just so-so, negative over time.  I love the track but for whatever reason I've never played it well.  You've been warned!

So what are we doing today?  The Jim Dandy is a 3 YO handicap prep for The Travers Stakes.  A six horse Grade 2, with five of six entrants being Triple Crown nominated, a Grade 1 winner in Creator, two Grade 2 winners with Mohaymen and Destin and a fairly even group of runners.  My first reaction is that as a betting opportunity I'm not sure what we have here: four of the six runners will have short prices and the other two might be a bit long, and I don't see upset possibilities with the bigger prices, but possibly Place or Show.  Let's not jump ahead yet to the bet construction, lets just break this down first into a base handicap.






Let's start with Mohaymen's Fountain of Youth at GP.



Shutdown after an exotic finish in the Kentucky Derby, Trainer McLaughlin is 22% off the 60-180 day break.  Five Wins in six Fast Dirt starts and five wins in seven career starts. Smoked by Nyquist in the Florida Derby on an off track and the Kentucky Derby.



I'm not going to give Mohaymen too much of a pass for the trip: at the top of the stretch he had no response even though he went wide most of the way.  He was just beaten and Nyquist's acceleration was phenomenal. It would have been great to have Nyquist here but I always respect Haskell runners.



I thought Mohaymen looked pretty game at the top of the stretch where again he was wide most of the race.  Exaggerator just blew past him as he chased down Nyquist.  I'm thinking in this company, Grade 2 company, he looks good.  He's my chalk.

I typically toss Belmont performance. Sometimes I'm right to do that, sometimes I'm wrong. I think Destin deserves consideration as a high class runner.  Watch this gutty fight in the last 1/16th to win the Tampa Bay Derby.





This might be blasphemy, but the Belmont Stakes is typically a yawn for me.  I loved Rags to Riches, and of course American Pharoah's, but this year's edition was pretty, pretty good.

Owner of the top Beyer on fast dirt, Destin is five of seven in the money lifetime and Trainer Pletcher has maybe the best pilot in the race, Castellano, up. Tactical speed may win this race.

I've been a big Arkansas Derby race respect giver and Creator gets that praise this year.



Does wow cover it?  Last at first call, a dazzling move through traffic by previous pilot Santana (Ortiz up today as he was on Belmont win) and a driving win.  He's not going to be within three at the top of the stretch unless the pace really plods, which I'm not expecting, and I'm not sure I like his running style here.  Steve Asmussen knows a thing or two about horse racing, and he likes him here so maybe i'm right, maybe I'm wrong, but handicapping is about being decisive and I have him shaded down a bit.

I may have Governor Malibu too high in my base handicap, and in my bet construction I may flip flop him with Creator on some tickets and Race Me Home on others.  This New York bred may not win the Class competition but I'm a big fan of Clement's barn and I like the tactical speed here too.  Five of six in the money on fast dirt and seven of eight lifetime in the money.  I like tough, game, speedy Malibu Moon's.

I liked this effort in the Grade 2 Peter Pan at BEL in May.  Game, smart, gutty in final 1/16th.



Race Me Home (Ire) represents a horse that will run at a good price and may spice up some pretty blah tickets if he can sneak into the top three or two.  He'll be coming off the pace, like Creator.  They should have plenty of speed to set their sights on.  This Easy Goer Stakes , an ungraded 1 1/16 race at BEL had some pretty good horses in it and Race Me Home doesn't embarrass himself with this effort.



I'm tossing Laoban, owner of a :46 2/5ths bullet (1/86) this week at my own peril.  He's been slow in races and I'd like to see a bit more before I sign up for that. This Uncle Mo is a maiden still, seven races into his career, not sure he was worth the $260,000 fee yet.

I don't know what I'll do with this yet.  I'm thinking my base handicap will look similar to the tote board with maybe the exception of Creator being too low and Race Me Home and Governor Malibu being too high.   I'm most likely going to single Mohaymen and then build a matrix of possibilities for Place and Show.  I'm not planning on spending too much as the risk-reward for my bet construction methods, is seldom there in a six horse, top heavy card.  I'll tweet out my bet from my handle @turkandlilturk after checking the tote board, the scratches and changes and the track condition.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 1, 2010: The Oceanport and Haskell Daily Double at Monmouth Park

This Turk took the month of July off from blogging. My five readers wondered what I was up to, at least I like to think one of them did, and what started as just a break to recharge the batteries turned into deconstruction of my handicapping and bet construction tendencies. Self analysis has always been something I believed made me better and I have always been a big fan of quality handicapping and post race analysis trumping quantity.

As any handicapper can attest, the race is always easier to predict after its raced. OK Turk, WTF do you mean? I mean, post race I take the race chart, watch a replay if I can find one, and let the race unfold backwards from the finish to the starting gate. I study the race within the race to spot horses with strong quarters that had bad trips along the way and I study my pre race handicap and see where I got it right and where I got it wrong. There are some races you just throw out and don't lose sleep over. Two weeks ago I stood at the rail and watched Golden Moka beat a very talented Big Red Mike and another strong runner Hotep in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie. This horse hadn't been past 5.5 furlongs and went out and shocked these route runners. Hard to fathom from the past performances.

Most of the time, most of the time, when I look at the race chart and then look at my handicap, I can see clearly what I did or what I should have seen pre race. That's what I mean, if you are going to be successful, you have to be able to look post race and make sense of it from the past performances. I digress.

I was successful this weekend because I built a good base handicap, I worked my base handicap, and my bet construction stayed true to my base handicap and I didn't over spend and under produce.

Also digressing, the above picture is Looking at Lucky meeting Cocco Puff. Very cute! Alright, let's get after it.



I wasn't that emotionally wrapped up with the results of either of these races, another good key that I sometimes struggle with. In both races I identified what I thought was the best two horses, Looking at Lucky and Get Serious, discounted them into second place and chalked the two horses I thought were at a good point in their training form and poised to strike mild upsets, Trappe Shot and Violon Sacre. It didn't happen but it doesn't mean the thought process was flawed and if I don't mind saying so myself, the bet construction addressed it perfectly.

The Daily Double bet was a simple 2 picks by 2 picks valued at $2 for an $8 total bet. It would have been a much better payout had the order been flipped, but not enough to retire on.

I had the exactas in both races as well, boxing my base handicap top two entries. My boss is a CPA who also holds an MBA. He taught me to never negotiate against myself when dealing with a counterparty. The concept is pretty simple; I offer you $5,000 for your used car, we talk for awhile and you tell me how good the stereo is and before you counter offer me I'm telling you I'll pay $6,000 for it. In this case, I have a base handicap I believe in, so why place too many contradictory bets; If I have a horse fifth in the bas handicap he shouldn't be part of my bet matrix in the superfecta in the Win or Place spots.

This thinking paid off with the Haskell bet and almost hit in the Oceanport. Taking my base handicap, I boxed the Win and Place horses, and then for horses 3-5 I boxed them for Show and 4th. Both bets were constructed identically for a five horse matrix that cost $24 dollars for a $2 super ticket. I cashed nicely on the Haskell and overall I did well for 1 hours work.

I had a line in my pre race analysis that I ultimately erased. It said that Looking at Lucky was the best three year old in the United States right now. I believed that before the race but I was hesitant to say it so boldly. I am most impressed by the way he trains on poly and then ships and looks great on dirt. If he races as a four year old I'd love to see him on turf, and the son of Smart Strike has a decent enough Tomlinson number you would think this horse could win a Grade I on all three surfaces. We could use more of that in the gene pool. I don't want to praise Lucky by knocking the rest of the class of 2010, what some may call mediocrity may just be parity. I'm leaning toward mediocrity but that doesn't mean Looking at Lucky isn't a very good, short of great, horse. The pairing with M. Garcia is unfortunate for Go-Go, but Gomez is a wildly good rider who didn't really give Baffert much of a choice.

Sister Turk and I had a wonderful day at the Spa on Saturday, taking in the Jim Dandy and the Diana. I bet A Little Warm, a horse I liked all spring, who I think can give Looking at Lucky a good run at the Travers. The thing about this group of three year olds is that I'm not sure all of them don't need just the right pace scenario and then just the right trip to win. Nobody is going out there four wide at the top of the stretch and winning on overwhelming talent. Don't be surprised to see Golden Moka crash the Travers party this year and who the hell knows what a win by him would mean for this crazy Eclipse Award category.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 2, 2009: The San Diego Handicap plus Video Replay of Jim Dandy, WV Derby, and Haskell

The Turk likes to wax poetic about creating handicaps and then working the handicap. It's a two step process in my mind. The handicap can be something akin to a crossword puzzle or Sudoku, a mental exercise -or- it can be used to build bets that hopefully take a small pile of money and turn it into a slightly larger pile of money. The dangerous trap horseplayers can fall into is the hunt for the big score. While they happen, there is low hanging fruit aplenty all over the cards at tracks everyday. I love the big score and I'm still on a high after filling my pockets on the FourStarDave Sunday, but those types of scores for a low risk bettor are few and in between. The San Diego Handicap at Del Mar on Sunday is the best example I can give of creating a handicap, working a handicap and having a nice return to show for it. It's not sexy, but its workmanlike, like those coal mining horseplayers pictured above.

Race 8 Del Mar Sunday August 2, 2009: The San Diego Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 miles on fake and 'no safer then dirt' dirt for 3 YOs and Up.



The Turk took a stand on Sunday against the madness around Well Armed. I love the horse and was thrilled with his loose on the lead drubbing that he delivered in Dubai, but the horse hasn't raced since March and he was bet down to Secretariat/Ruffian levels. If he would have won, the risk/reward meter just isn't high enough in reward to justify it, and obviously if he lost...

So what to do? I looked exacta and I keyed everything to Informed winning. The current form of Informed is far superior to Well Armed, even if the horses aren't equals on paper. I worked my handicap. I placed four $2 exacta bets using my handicap, and I tossed the bottom two horses and Well Armed because again, winning with Well Armed second isn't really winning and the risk/reward doesn't justify the bet. $8 in bets returns $53 in winnings. Not sexy, workmanlike.



I put together a few other videos from the weekend races I handicapped. Enjoy. Turk Out!

The Jim Dandy



The West Virginia Derby



Haskell Invitational



Quality Road's Return in the Amsterdam Stakes



The Traver's is going to be quite a gathering!