The Nomination Is In: October 15, 2011; The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland

I'm here on this day of rage to represent the 1%; The 1% of horseplayers who are getting phat off the pari mutuel losses of the oppressed 99% betting public. You poor, downtrodden masses, lined up at the betting windows like lemmings, The Ol' Turk is a benevolent 1% type, offering my Truck Nutz Iron Pipe Locks of the Week for free. Win some bread money and any left over, do something humanitarian like save a horse.

All kidding aside, there are some pari mutuel winnings just sitting there waiting to be had each week. You have to pick your marks and you have to know when to just sit back and be a horse fan with no skin in the game. The card in today's Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland is stacked and earns its Grade 1 status; Winter Memories, Together(Ire) ,Summer Soiree, the Breeders' Cup Champ, More Than Real; Wow. We're going to handicap this and have some fun, but there are much easier races this weekend to beat the odds.

Let's get after it today!




Before we go to deep, I pulled up some key race videos that you should take a strong look at. The Fillies and Mares continue to be just a wildly exciting and deep group. These are some of the more sterling runs of the year.

The Del Mar Oaks Grade 1 (20 Aug 2011)



The First Lady Grade 1 (8 Oct 2011)



The Garden City Grade 1 (17 September 2011)



From the outside, with Ramon Dominguez up is Summer Soiree, the Del Mar Oaks champ. The War Front daughter has 4 wins in 5 tries in 2011 including two sizzling turf efforts. Off since August 20, Trainer Motion is 25% off this layoff and a 25% winner Won Last Start. Not sure who she beat at at Del Mar as Nereid and Star Billing are a lower tier here.

The Turk loves Winter Memories and wants to see her win here, but the bettor in me tries to keep an even keel about these things. The beautiful El Prado (Ire) daughter has 6 wins in 8 starts over turf and her last race she closed like a freight train with a turn of foot that defines turn of foot. There should be plenty of speed for her to focus on over the last 1/8 of a mile.

Together (Ire)is a Galileo (Ire) daughter trained by Aidan O'Brien runs back on one week layoff after a willing Place , 1 1/2 lengths off the winner of the First Lady (as an aside, don't cha love the TRACKUS video feeds!. A 21 day layoff in September saw her come back sluggish and an 8 day layoff as a 2 YO was similar results. No wins in 7 starts this season.

Kathmanblu is a very honest girl with a turf master, Leparoux up. 9 of 13 in the money lifetime, 6 of 8 in the money over grass, she'll be in the exotic mix.

It may be time to say that More Than Real had a great trip in the Breeders' Cup but has never stepped forward after that. 2nd lowest lifetime Beyer, never breaking 90 in 6 races. Don't expect much here.

Trainer Shirreffs has two talented girls here with Star Billing and Nereid. Both are off the layoff since the Del Mar Oaks, a break Shirreffs wins off of 14% of the time. Star Billing is 5 of 5 in the money on turf but no wins at the distance. Nereid won 3 of 4 starts over turf and 4 of 4 in the money, but also no wins at the distance.

So what to make of all this? Nereid , Marketing Mix and More Than RealSummer Soiree may rate a bit back after breaking from the outside. Kathmanblu will position in a stalk, 2 lengths back, and a blanket of closers will lay as much as 3 back with Star Billing, Together and Winter Memories all watching each other. This race will be settled in the final hops and i'm leaning towards Winter Memories. I'll assemble a superfecta with the tote board chalk in the top four.

Have fun with it friends. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 6 and 7, 2011: The Kentucky Oaks- Kentucky Derby Double

Well it's finally here! We horse fans start watching 2 year olds like mystics reading tea leaves or chicken bones and graduation day always comes the first weekend in May.

The Turk has done a fair share of handicapping and gambling over the years. At the end of the day, I'm a horse racing fan and having days like this with multiple graded stakes and graded stakes caliber horses puts the fire back in my soul.

I got grumpy the past few weeks. I hated the way Uncle Mo was handled as a three year old and everywhere I looked I saw horses that looked like fine Grade II 9 furlong horses but so few classic distance runners. I let go some of my bitterness when I printed the Oaks day past performances and felt that feeling again.

The unexpected benefit of handicapping the Oaks-Derby Double is that I have no choice but get down to seriously looking at the Derby closely: It's one thing to vote on potential like I did with the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll, but its quite a different thing to take into account track conditions, current form, post position etc.

Let's get it on!



A nice thirteen horse card greets us with a a gaping hole missing since R Heat Lightning dropped out of contention. Coupled with the faltering of Uncle Mo, we have an opportunity to have a good will pay on this double bet and that my friends is why we play this game, the opportunities that present themselves.

After some internal debate I settled on five possible victors who'd I'd love to cover, but my very light chalk is Kathmanblu: 8 of 9 lifetime in the money, 5 wins, a Grade 2 and 3 win, and a solid CD 1 1/16 win on fast dirt. The McPeek runner with Leparoux up, expect an of the pace win in the deep stretch.


Daisy Devine might not win a class battle but she's a tough girl working well and coming in off a Grade 2 dirt win at 1 1/16 miles. The McKeever/ Graham combo wins 27% of the time together and placing her here for me represents some value, as we are afterall, gambling!

Joyful Victory looms large and I would expect her to be the bettors chalk: Her last two wins, a grade 3 and grade 2 she's won by almost 16 lengths combined for the Turk's favorite dirt trainer, Larry Jones. She'll be flying off the pace late as well.

Zazu is interesting to me: Losing my a neck to Turbulent Descent in the Grade I Santa Anita Oaks after beating Turbulent Descent two back. Nice speed figs from SA this winter and this fillie is ultra consistent.

And finally Summer Soiree is a recently transferred from Larry Jones to Graham Motion, with Saez up, and enters off a grade 3 win by 10 lengths. This War Front girl looks pretty serious and will look to strike the front and not give it up.

I guess we need to discuss the track condition I am assuming is fast. Make sure you check in on scratches and changes, the weather and track conditions before you finalize your choices.

For the Derby I considered dropping Uncle Mo completely off, as fear of a Life at Ten sequel is something i don't think Team Mo want any part of. I don't plan on covering him in the Double Bet and that represents the type of risk a bettor has to take. Playing it safe and covering everybody is the best way to take alot of money and turn it into a smaller pot of money.

For two weeks now I planned on making Archarcharch my chalk but post one is quite a hurdle. You have to go back to Winning Colors in '88 and Ferdinand in '86 to see success there. That said, I like his chances quite a bit and love the work and gallop outs he's been doing all week. My chalk is Nehro who I have regarded lightly but I am more compelled after spending some time in analysis: great late kick, a late surge and strong run in the Arkansas Derby, an he seems to be reaching the top of his fitness cycle at just the right time.

I'm expecting Archarcharch will be close and Midnight Interlude seems to be sharpening up well: This lightly raced, inexperienced colt won the Santa Anita Derby just after breaking his maiden. Trainer Baffert seems to be pushing the right buttons in his conditioning and I think he looms as a possible.

Dialed In is a feast or famine late runner who will be heavily bet. He could win but its far from assured and I'm betting against it for the bet sake. I like Shackleford's current form quite a bit as well and Mucho Macho Man will round out my potential covers.

So there we have it. The Turk will be back tomorrow with more racing from Oaks Day and again on Staurday with the Derby Day Late Pick 3.

Have fun, Turk Out!