The Nomination Is In: The Old Friends $250K at Kentucky Downs

"....and they're off!"  Photo:  Thoroughbred Daily News

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. We're back for the second of five days of this meet and the focus race is the $250,000 Old Friends, Race 9, for three year old's and up which have not won a sweepstakes in 2018.

You will find entries, scratches and changes and track condition here.  The weather looks like it may be a bit wet a few hours before post time before stopping.  I'm assuming firm turf for now.

Because this is the work week, and I'm a working class stiff, I won't be conducting the usual video and trip analysis here in the blog.  If you are new to The Turk, please check out my achieve, as I put alot of time and attention into trip handicapping and the results have been well worth it.

Let's get it on!




The Turk is a form handicapper who utilizes video analysis and analytics to form base handicaps which I use to primarily pick exacta bets.  In calendar year 2018 I return $1.65 for each $1 invested.  With older turf runners I believe in late turn of foot, tactical speed depending on track configuration, race distance and post position, class, and trip analysis over past several races.  These Kentucky Downs races are serious challenges and the conditions on this race, "...which have not won a sweepstakes in 2018..." opens up the field widely.

None of these runners scream "chalk".  The morning line favorite is 4-1  Undrafted.  Wesley Ward's runners Undrafted and Master Merion are making their first starts since late June at Ascot.  Undrafted has $1.4 MM in career earnings with 12 Win-Places but is winless in 4 Kentucky Downs starts.

Instead of rambling like I normally do, I'm going to let the base handicap stand and I will post an update with my selections prior to the race.

UPDATE 11:12 ET 9/5

Undrafted/8 and Conquest Panthera/9, along with All Right/8 are early scratches.  Undrafted (20%) and Conquest Panthera (16.67%) represented 37% winning odds by the morning line.  This thing is wide open. 

I'll be back with my picks before post time.  

Have fun (mid week) with this one.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Ellis Park Kentucky Downs Preview Day

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, nearly 10 full years and over 630 blog post offers to a reading public that never asked for such dreadful writing.  

I'll be honest, I’m not sure The Turk, late in our 9th year of blogging and with over 600 blog posts, has ever blogged Ellis Park Racing.  The Turk has zero bias against the good people of Ellis Park and their fine track, I'm just not sure I ever found the occasion to handicap and gamble there.  

Sunday's Kentucky Downs Preview Day gives me just such occasion.  Ellis Park racing secretary Dan Bork conceived the idea, envisioning Preview Day as “…being a win-win-win for the two tracks and their horsemen. Hence, the Ellis stakes are designed as launching pads to lucrative stakes at Kentucky Downs’ elite meet that runs Sept. 1, 6, 8, 9 and 13th.   Following a concept popularized by the Breeders’ Cup, the four winners of the Preview stakes are guaranteed a spot in the corresponding race at Kentucky Downs, as well as having their entry fees waived, a savings of $3,000 or $4,000 for the owners, depending on the race” (Ellis Park, 2018). 

I fell in love with Kentucky Downs and their quirky short meet, all turf schedule. The racing to me is phenomenal and as a gambler, it represents an incredible mental challenge.  It comes just after Saratoga and Del Mar wrap up and is some of the finest turf racing in North America, regardless who comes. 

The weather in Henderson, Kentucky looks like it was good Saturday and will be good on Sunday, so expect firm turf.  The turf oval is exactly one mile.  For the classic distance, the gate is at the top of the stretch. I'm primarily focused on Races 6 and 8 with Race 6 the Turf Cup Preview at 1 1/4 Miles for 3 YOs and Up and Race 8  The Mile Preview for 3 YOs and Up.

Let's get after it!

Right off the bat, its clear Trainer Brian Cox has come ready to dominate.  In Race 6, an 8 horse field enters the classic distance route over grass.  Arklow, the 4 YO son of Arch will be the post time favorite and is my chalk for the win. The distance is something he's never raced at but is a cutback from 1 1/2 miles last time out.  He has the best late turn of foot.  Cox with Bridgmohan up are 38%  winners in 32 starts at EIP.  Cox's has great numbers period: 29% with 2nd off 45-180 days off, 28% turf winners in 552 tries, 29% route winners in 773 tries and 24% stakes winner in 229 tries. 

I show myself singling Arklow, but not completely sure I'll be doing that as he's no iron pipe lock for the win.  I have a trio listed just below:  Tizzarunner and Sir Dudley Digges are Classy while Harv Won't Tap represents late speed and value.  Harv Won't Tap is the classic overlay if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, not for Win but Place or Show.  The 4 YO has solid late speed and appears to be improving for Trainer Stidham. 

Flatlined and Rated R Superstar aren't that different and each has excellent late turns of foot as well.  Rated R Superstar goes over grass for just the second time and I can't see the ML 9-2 justification.  Trainer McPeek's Dirt to Turf  is 10% in 80 tries and he's only a 9% Turf Winner in 214 tries.  Minor prize only.  

In Race 8 at 1 Mile, Mr. Misunderstood does look like very heavy chalk: 9 wins in 12 Turf Starts, 4 wins in 5 starts at 1 Mile, and enters off G2 Wise Dan win beating World Approval who is pretty good at the turf racing thing.  Another Cox/Bridgmohan combo.  Cowboy Culture, a 4 YO Quality Road colt enters also for Cox.  First start of 2018.

Newly gelded Parlor is 8 of 12 in the money over grass and has the race best Timeform US late Pace fig of 124.  He's been a 82-87 Beyer horse until last race out 97 (Also the Wise Dan G2).  Beware regression. Seim Reip  is a classy under performer.  Very big early speed, the only question will be for how long he can carry it.  4 wins in 7 tries at 1 Mile and 6 of 7 in the money at the distance is encouraging. 

I'm not sure what I'm doing yet with the betting.  My initial thoughts working backwards is to single  Mr.Misunderstood in the 8th and slot the 9-2-6-1-8 for a $10 bet and hope for some value in the Place position.  In the 6th, the easy button is a $2  7-6-3-2  box for $24 but I don't like spending $24 on an exacta so I may just go 7-6 OVER 7-6-2 3 for $12. 

Have fun friends.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Arlington Classic G3

Millions Day 2016

The Turk loves Arlington.  My first time at the track was a bit unconventional;  July 31, 1985,  the day the old track burned to the ground.

I was in the US Navy at the time, stationed at Great Lakes Naval Training Center, as an E-3 in Machinist Mate A School.   One normal school night, I was told to grab my gear and get on a truck to go help with a large fire.  I spent about 8 hours doing odds and ends in support of the firefighters and the first responders.

The Turk hadn't quite become The Turk at that point, that didn't happen until the following summer of 1986 that I spent at Saratoga Springs, but I was a race fan and was saddened by what I saw that day.  If it wasn't for the fire it's doubtful we would have the beautiful facility we have now, so if there was a silver lining, it's that.  Now if the State of Illinois can get out of their own way and allow horse racing to grow again.



The Turk thinks the Arlington turf course is the best in the United States and doesn't even mind the fake dirt.  He only wishes they could attract better fields with bigger purses.  I was at the Millions last year, and given the choice between an outrageously priced Travers Stakes Day at Saratoga and The Millions, I'll take Chicago any day.


Turf handicapping is my first love.  It doesn't mean I have my best ROI with it, but I love the tactics of the turf racing and a late turn of foot over a route of grass excites me more than the dirt.  Today's handicap is the Arlington Classic, a Grade 3 run at 1 1/16 miles.  Expect the track to be listed as something better than Yielding, but that's just a guess and take a look as race time approaches.  The weather in Arlington Heights appears to be rather crappy tonight but a bit dryer tomorrow.

Anyways. let's get after this!




Trainer Brian Cox has Cowboy Culture, a 3 YO Quality Road baby out of English Willow.  A 90 Beyer over turf is the race high, set a a 1 Mile distance two races back. Cox is 32% off 31-60 day layoff and 33% in 317 starts over turf, while he and Bridgmohan, up, are 27% together.  Training sharply over CD turf.

Fast and Accurate was eased at the Kentucky Derby three weeks back.  The G3 Spiral Stakes winner looks primed for turf sucess but I don't think I like him to win quite yet until he's done it a bit more.  He's close and I'm covering him in Win Spot.

Giant Payday is 3 of 4 in the money over Turf but 0 of 4 in 2017 and 1 win lifetime in 8 starts.  maybe on the lead and setting early pace but I expect a gradual fade to Place thru Exotic.

Parlor is also 3 of 4 in turf starts and returns to the turf 3 weeks after last effort over grass at CD.  Might really surprise for Eddie Kenneally.

Gorgeous Kitten and Sakonnet offer wild card value for me in Place thru Exotic, with expected finishes no higher than Show. Michael Maker trains Gorgeous Kitten for owner/breeders The Ramsey's and this colt could easily crack the Top 3.  Sakonnet is not as high end as Gorgeous Kitten but the maiden will be game.

I'm looking for a bit of low priced fun:  $0.10 Super of 6-8 OVER 6-7-8-9 OVER 3-4-7-8-9 OVER 3-4-7-8-9 for $6 bucks.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!