The Nomination Is In: A Kentucy Derby Prep Race, The Sham, Grade 3 at Santa Anita

This isn't a blog posting today about a horse race as much as it is about a slumbering, hibernating handicapper coming out of his hole.  As I move closer to 50 years old, a handicapper for the past 30 years, I've taken some breaks from the game in the past.  Sometimes it was because I was 'capped out, too many cards in too many weeks.  This is different: I was bored with the game.  I was frustrated with the closing of Hollywood, the blandness of the handicap division, the Breeders' Cup recurring Santa Anita dates, my local track, Fort Erie, getting screwed by politicians and hacks, deaths of some of my favorite runners, you name it. 

What's changed?  Absolutely nothing, except the great rejuvenating power of a long break, as this is my first handicap since Breeders' Cup weekend.  I love the game, I love the horses, and I enjoy deeply the connections I've made through horse racing that make any dissatisfaction I have with the sport go away.  The thrill of chasing Super High Fives on the biggest days in our sport's calendar is the only drug I indulge in.

Dissatisfaction?  A Kentucky Derby prep race with a six horse field.  Until the sport gets healthier, if it gets healthier, I guess that will have to be sometime the horse fan in me will have to live with.  The gambler in me will remain jaded, not betting for action play, and I'm not sure the value of betting The Sham is, but we'll get to that.  Anyhow, this isn't a blog about much of anything other than the Turk sharing his thoughts on various races and expressing his opinion and prospective as a modern day horse player, armed with great electronics and an old school red pen.  To my readers and friends who I've been writing at since 2008, hello.  To anyone new, I'm the Turk and my boy is the Little Turk.  I'm an Internet handicapping hack who offers bravado free opinions to use or ignore as you will.

Let's get after it.



One thing that is a constant with The Turk is his disdain of 2 YO racing.  I don't care about it and seldom watch it.  The other thing you need to know about The Turk is my disdain for hype.  As much as I enjoy the writing of some very fine turf writers, I do my darnest to not get sucked into who the "next great horse" is stuff.  I'm a paper past performance handicapper whose thesis is everything you need to win at this race is printed on the paper (especially the DRF Formulator's which I'm not paid to pitch).  You'll also notice an absence of advertising in my blog.  I've been offered all sorts of things in the past, from banner ads to live links that lead to products, and while I don't begrudge anyone making money for their efforts, The Turk doesn't blog for any reason other than a release for my thoughts. 

Midnight Hawk, the latest Baffert/Midnight Lute collaboration, looks like the cut and dry chalk for this affair with bullets galore over the surface and a commanding maiden win at Hollywood last month. Blinkers off today. 

If I were to bet this race, which again I'm not sure I will, I have two approaches in mind:  Single Midnight Hawk and bet a value player under him -OR- bet against him, taking him right out of the exacta.  At 8-5 he'll draw serious money to him, so how do you want to play it?  Your call readers. 

The Turk starts with a Base Handicap;  The Base Handicap assigns a letter grade to each entrant and slots the horses into an expected order of finish.  The Turk is an exotic player primarily, so I focus on who is tossed and how many horses I need to consider that can finish in the top four.  The Base Handicap isn't necessarily my betting strategy.  Two different sides of a coin, handicapping and betting.  While Midnight Hawk seems like a legitimate monster to me in this spot as a handicapper, the better in me wants to knock him off.  Have an opinion, an original opinion, and stick to it. 

I can't say I'm thrilled with any other runner but Kristo interests me, maybe not a 2-1.  Sadler's Distorted Humor colt has been off since Halloween.  Work is solid at SA but not eye popping, just steady. Sadler is only 8% off this break. 

I'll Wrap It Up and Ontology, both colts from Tapit, seem very similar;  no dirt wins between either, upper 70's best Beyer, last race wins on fake dirt and turf respectively.  I'm edging Ontology higher as I type and should flip flop them in the chart, but they are both B- so I guess its obvious. 

Top Fortitude is the type of horse I get wrong annually so lets see if I'm consistent. Life is a Joy will need to show me something to get more than a mention.

Have fun friends, I enjoyed my first handicap back.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Fountain of Youth and The Kentucky Derby Point Race Update

The Kentucky Derby Prep Season is over and today begins the Kentucky Derby Championship Series.

My criticism of the current system is that the prep season rewards are too meager, with the leaders after 19 races accumulating only 24 points while today the winners of the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Risen Star Stakes will each receive 50 points and the Place Horse will receive 20. What it does do it motivate the winners of the big 2 YO races to start running sooner, in February, and maybe, just maybe, it adds one additional start before the Derby for some of these runners, and 2 additional starts for fringe horses in the field.

I like the concept, I just think it will need tweaking. I would like there to be real motivation for trainers to run the horses more often and one tweak I'd suggest is a veto on gate draw for the Derby: If you collect X number of points and you started Y number of races during the Prep and Championship Series, a Trainer should be able to Veto Gate Position 1 or 20, or some variation of this, to improve his odds further and reward him for running. Maybe I'm missing something, but how does Winning Colors make history in this arrangement, how does Eight Belles get her chance? Maybe this closes the door on fillies, as while a filly does draw interest, a dead filly does not. I'm also not down with the suits at CDI deciding which races are in the circle of trust and which ones are not. I'm OK with most of the races they selected, but there should be some slots that rotate every year. I dunno, I'm the Turk, a hack handicapper and not one of the deep thinkers of the sport in general. For real talented voices in horse racing, I strongly urge you to read some of the top writers at Turf or Hello Race Fans!






This weekend we have the first two Championship Series Races. Most horses have two starts left before the Kentucky Derby. In the 1st Leg of the Championship Series, there are 95 points for the taking in a start, with the Show Horse gathering 10 points. In the Second Leg of the Series which begins about 5 weeks from now with The Florida Derby, there are 170 points available in a start, with Place gathering 40 and Show getting 20. A Show finish in one of the Big Races (Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes) and as few as 4 points or a Place in the Prep Season races, and I think you are safely in the Top 20. Let's assume the top ten in the list keep hitting the board, from Shanghai Bobby to Super Ninety Nine, then valuable scraps will be left over for between 14 and 25 other horses to fight for.

I've handicapped The Fountain of Youth Stakes and will be watching the Risen Star today as well. As a fan who doesn't care much about 2 YO's, by following the Prep Race Season, I feel like I am more in tune with this year's key 3 YOs, so in this way the Race Series and Points Method has enhanced my interest.

Let's get after this!



I think Violence (pictured above) is good. I respect the field that he defeated in the Hollywood Park Cash Call Futurity G1 but I don't know that he is 9-5 good until I see it again. I'm going to bet against him and my base handicap supports this by favoring Cerro (Ire), a typical Team Valor International runner; improving Beyers, a cutback of a 1/16 off his last race win at GP. His pilot, Castellano, jumps off for Violence, and that gives journeyman Rocco a chance.

I have Violence in the Place spot but he's talented enough to Win, and a wildcard enough to finish out of the money. I dunno and that's why its called gambling. I'm playing the odds, perhaps against my gut, and I'll cover him in the Top 4 in all spots.

My next five are a jumble and I think very little separates them. Falling Sky and He's Had Enough seem to be the best of the bunch but they have to show it.

Today's a good race day and I'll be back tomorrow to update the standings and talk about implications.

Enjoy! Turk Out.

Kentucky Derby Point Race Standings

Like it or not, the 20 spots in the starting gate for the 139th Kentucky Derby will not be based on graded stakes earnings as it has since 1986, but instead points earned in 36 races designated by a completely unbiased (cough) Churchill Downs Incorporated.

I'm on record as liking the concept; I like the idea of a roadmap towards the starting gate. I'm content with watching it happen this year and I think that some really interesting tweaks can be added to the system over the next several years if the men in grey flannel suits can get a bit outside the box. Right off the bat, one of my beefs has been a 2 YO wins a $1.0 Million dollar pot in one of racino races or the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the super genius trainers start to conjure up how little they can start their charge before the first Saturday in May. The next tweaks should reward the runners who take part in the most prep races with a weighted ball advantage at the starting gate draw.

Anyhow, before tomorrow's Smarty Jones we are 12 races into the chase, with 7 left in the Prep Season before we reach the more lucrative Championship Series.

It's realistic that a horse will win the Prep Season with as few as 34 points. The first leg of the Championship Series awards 50 points for a win and 20 for Place, which makes the value of the Prep Season fairly poor. The second leg of the Championship Series is worth 100 Points for the win and only 40 points for Place, so you could argue that current prep leaders Shanghai Bobby and Goldencents need only win one more race and they are cemented. I think some tweaks to the number of points per race may be justified as well.

We'll keep making suggestions and then summarize them after the Kentucky Derby is run.






My beloved Buffalo Sabres just kicked the snot out of the Flyers. All is right in the world again. Have fun race fans, Turk Out!

By the way, I have skipped all coverage of the Eclipse Awards on purpose: I think these sort of popularity contests are a joke and I'd rather see the awards based on points just like this. How Frankel can't be Horse of the Year, I'm still waiting for a sane answer on that. Joke, not to be taken seriously.

The Nomination Is In: The Lecomte at Fairgrounds: 10 Point Kentucky Derby Prep Race

I wasn't sure I was going to talk about Lance Armstrong today, but I think it's important to tell my story. In 1986 I became enamored with International Cycling and The Tour de France. I loved the drama of Greg LeMond, as well as the American 7/11 Cycling Team, taking on these dashing, eccentric and seemingly unbeatable Europeans, like the badger, Bernard Hinault, Thierry Marie, Laurent Fignon, and a youthful Pedro Delgado. It was an American coming of age story with Andy Hampsten, Davis Phinney and of course the eventual winner, LeMond. If blogging were around in 1986, I'd be blogging about the classic races, the Tour and the World Championships. Then, drugs ruined it for me. It wasn't overnight, but I didn't need to be a drug tester to realize the feats I was witnessing were chemically fabricated. The ability to attack constantly on the mountains, stage after stage, the ability to recover so quickly, the ability of middling riders to suddenly become superstars was disgusting to the sportsman in me and in response, I quit the sport cold, sometime after 2001, when Armstrong attacked my hero, Greg LeMond viciously, even forcing his bike sponsor Trek to shutdown their affiliation with LeMond. I am repulsed by what Armstrong did, not only to the sport, but to the people who dared challenge him. I thought less of him when he left the mother of his children, starting women hopping, and I never believed he cared much at all about the cancer patients he made so much money claiming to care about. It took his 13 year old son defending him to finally stir some sense of manhood in him and admit his lies and deceit.

I don't want this to happen to horse racing. I quit betting the local track in the 1990's when I heard rumors of rampant drug use and screwy results. I have faith that horse racing has drug use and cheats under control, but I don't really know for sure. If my faith gets shaken I may shift blogging back to cycling, where clean athletes seem to have retaken the sport again. Go away Lance Armstrong and please don't bother with your attempts at public reconciliation, I don't care.

The Kentucky Derby Prep Season continues today with the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fairgrounds. Let's get after it!



Charles Fipke, like fine diamonds, finds gems like Golden Soul. Comes in off a strong route race here in late December. I expect similar results today.

Elusive Quality son Avie's Quality, trained by Josie Carroll, with Rosie Napravnik up, will provide a serious challenge. The race's sole 90+ BSF rated and the money earnings leader, a first trip across dirt for this Woodbine snowbird.

Trainer Lukas brings in Oxbow, an Awesome Again son from Tizamazin, with J. Court, up. Well traveled so far, looking for him to assert himself at some point on dirt at two turns.

These prep races aren't my betting cup of tea in January, more like handicappers homework. No bets for me, but if I were I'd assemble a trifecta with my top 4 boxed.

Have fun with this friends, Turk Out!