The Nomination Is In: The Grade 3 Buena Vista at Santa Anita

Vasilika- Photo: San Diego Union Tribune

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now in our 11th season of providing horse talk and handicapping to people who never asked for it.  I'd like to thank the Thorofan for awaking me from my handicappers holiday and inviting me to write for their Handicapper's Corner. 

Life to me is always about striking a balance.  I try to strike a balance in my handicapping by taking a break from Breeders' Cup until right about now.  I know the powers that be want me to be excited about The Pegasus World Cup, blah blah blah, but I'm not, it's more important to me to put my red gel pen down and relax my brain. 

I'm not much of a Triple Crown handicapper either.  Over the last several years I've really honed in on what I do well.  I keep a database that goes back well over a decade and its always been clear to me my ROI is the best with 4 YO or Greater, Turf, Good or Firm.  That works for me because I love the older horses, the ones not valued yet in the breeding shed, and I love the data that comes through the Past Performances and Race Charts on these animals.  Today's Buena Vista Grade 3 is in the sweet spot.  That beast pictured above is my heavy chalk, Vasilika.  She is just the sort of Mare that makes me love this sport, a survivor, a competitor, a former claimer turned Grade 1 winner.  Great stuff. 

Let's get after it!  The weather looks to be dry today and tomorrow.  The turf is currently listed as good with rail at 20 feet but I'm sure its trending towards firm.

If the past is prologue, which the recent past usually is in horse racing, let's start with same distance, good turf, same track and review what we have here. 

21 January 2019  SA 1 Mile Turf/Good:  Grade 3 Megahertz








I don't think you need to overthink and the system archetype (if your into Peter Senge speak) is simple:  Take Vasilika as heavy chalk and build Place -Show Tri's and Exacta's with value underneath her -OR- put her in Place and Show and Find major value beating her.  I'm not completely sure what I'm doing yet, but those are my game plans when faced with this scenario and my results are typically very good with some massive takes when the heavy chalk stumbles and some good takes when so real value sneaks into Place and Show (or just exacta Place).   Get out of your head ye' beginners that every bet has to be the grand slam.  I often will take a race like this and put Vasilika on top and wheel through my 12-1 and greater Turk Fair Line runners on $2 exacta's.  You'll lose more than you win but the wins should be greater than the losses over time so long as your fair line odds setting is reasonably sound.  I wont waste much time talking about Vasilika, an absolute beast with great late turn of foot and no slouch early either.  50% winner over Turf.  8 wins in 9 SA turf starts.

To me the interesting runners are:

Fahan Mura, with conditioner V. Cerin, is 7 of 7 in the money with 6 wins at SA and 12 of 15 in the money at the distance.   I toss the Pegasus World Cup Turf outing if I'm optimistic.  Cerin's Stakes win percentage of 6% makes me keep things real here, but huge Timeform early speed fig of 125, how she carries will determine if she hangs on for Place-Fourth. 

Mike Smith, atop a Blame filly (oh the irony dear Z) Ms Bad Behavior has seen the best of Vasilika.  I tend to not think more opportunities will change outcomes.  This filly has 4 straight Place finishes, something that I also think is a red flag for winning chances.  12 of 14 lifetime in the money, 9 of 10 lifetime turf in the money and 5 of 5 distance in the money says she'll be heard.  Worst case scenario is a 9-2 exacta. 

Amandine at ML 8-1 and Zaffinah at ML 12-1 interest me.  Conditioner Mullins (23% stakes) turns Amandine (GB) back after weakening in the Megahertz.  The 4 YO has an underlying class and sometimes that jump from 3 to 4 unlocks stars from pretenders.  Zaffinah (Ire) is in same situation.  Trainer Carava is 25% 2nd off 45-180 but zero stakes wins in last rolling year. 

Elysea's World (Ire), ML Place at 4-1, is first time out for Trainer Baltas after leaving Chad Brown's barn.  The 6 YO has never won at the distance, racing at 1 mile only once, and has never won at SA, with a Place effort in December 2017.  I love the late turn of foot.   Easily could upset the apple cart Place to Exotic but I have a hard time picturing her catching the speed in front of her, which there will be many targets. 

Streak of Luck/10 is a pretty flat runner.  A nice bullet work of 5F at :59 3/5ths off a 1 Mile Turf win at SA in late January, albeit at a pedestrian Beyer of 82, signals good form. 

I'm not sure which way I'm going but a couple of ideas:

9 OVER 4-2-6-3 $2 Exacta for $8 OR 4-2-6-3-8 over 9 a $2 Exacta for $10. 

Have fun with it friends!

Turk out.

The Nomination Is In: The Dr. James Penny Memorial G3 at PARX

Fourstar Crook: NYRA Twitter Photo

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. Happy 4th of July to my American readers.

The Turk is a proud American veteran, the son and grandson of soldiers, and my message today to all my fellow Americans is to remember that we live in the greatest County the World has ever known, the most generous Nation the World has ever known, and the most loyal Nation our allies have ever known.

It's trendy to say "...I wish we were more like [fill in the blank but mostly I hear from fan boys of our Northern Neighbors]"  but the Turk ain't buying any of that and I strongly urge all the America haters to keep on hating but at least remember that being allowed to hate is  a freedom you enjoy only because it was protected by the blood of patriots.  Instead of hating, why don't you consider returning to the middle, where compromise and fairness resides.

I must admit, I almost never play PARX.  I was interested more as a horse fan as the New York bred Fourstar Crook (above) leaves the Empire State for the first time and tries to keep a seven race win streak alive.

It appears right now that it could rain in the hours before and during the race.  Keep your eyes on the Scratches and Changes and Track Condition as it gets closer to post.  I don't anticipate changing my thinking much either way.

Let's get after it!




Trainer Chad Brown (23% Turf, 24% Routes, 20% Graded Stakes, 26% Won Last Start) has Joe Bravo up on Fourstar Crook.  The 5 YO Mare will be heavily bet but I like the chalk.  Steady speed improvement over past yeara and she's stretching out another 1/16 today to a distance she has 4 wins in 5 starts at.

Thinking contrarian, I like Light Up Our World (Ire) to have odds somewhere between 5-1 and 8-1 at Post Time.  Trainer Arnuad Delacour is a 40% winner with first time Lasix, 24% Turf, 26% Routes and 23% Graded Stakes.  Flying under the radar?

Cambodia is a 5 YO War Front mare who comes in off G3 Galorett win on Preakness Day.




She had a great trip and I don't think she'll have such an easy early go in this race.  More impressive was the bad trip and late turn of foot by Elysea's World (Ire).  7 of 10 in the money over turf, the race's biggest Tomlinson on grass (443) and the highest Beyer (99).  Brown's got three in this race.

In the Eatontown Park G3 on June 3, Light in Paris (Ire) had a good trip, made a nice late move, but eased up and was taken very late. Tin Type Gal wasn't much of a factor and is tossed here today.



My Impression is an interesting 4 YO, trained by McGaughey (19% Turf, 20% Routes, 13% Graded Stakes but 26% off a 2nd off 45-180 day break).  Sharp work over Belmont grass at 4f on 26 June.  Cutting back in distance.  4 Wins in 7 starts at the distance.  Lots to like at what should be a good price.

I've tossed four, with Gone Away the only one I think of note.  Trainer Michael Matz (5% graded stakes, 14% turf and routes) had the 4 year old run :36 2/5ths at 3f on 1 July and she is in off a win  at Laurel where she powered away in a N2X 25K OC.  Stepping up.

I'm not sure what I'm going to do with it.  I'm thinking I'll hunt for exacta with a few combinations and try to eek a few bucks out of it.  I may single 10 OVER 6-1-2-3-8-9, a $2 bet for $12 and then play around with 8-6 OVER 8-6-10-2-3, a $2 Bet for $20.

Whatever you do, handicap your own race and bet responsibly.

Happy 4th of July!

Turk Out!