The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Red Smith at AQA

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for inviting me to share my thoughts with you today.

This is not a race or a track I would generally handicap.  It's not that I'm biased, I just find the variables too many and the motivations of the connections too varied regarding the starting of turf runners in a northern climate track in late November.  You have the tight inner track, the weather, the horses who are building towards next year, the horses who are looking for one last kick at the can, the grizzled vets who are on their way to amassing 50 starts in their careers.  You get it all post Breeders' Cup, late season racing.  All that said, what these types of races are good for to me is isolation:  Almost all the runners are outside of the hype and BS marketing that can skew a horse players opinion of a race, and  very few of them I have played this year.  It allows me in the isolation of just my red gel pen annotated DRF Formulator PPs (an unpaid endorsement)  to study the data and bet purely on what I see on paper and a bit of video.


The NYRA website is one of the more friendly horse player track sites in my opinion.  You'll find scratches and changes and track condition here.  The weather Friday/Saturday is rainy and windy early Friday but then drying up.  I'm going to handicap like the turf is good.   I can't imagine it getting much better or worse but I'll take note of track conditions at end of today.  This is an inner turf race which was unveiled in late 2018 replacing the "all weather" inner track.  The turns are tight and the field is big.   Can't say that helps the trips that can be expected.  The race does not start in the chute.

I don't consider myself a coward, but this field  scares me as a handicapper.  When I was a high volume handicapper, I would have spent very little time on this race and just handicapped the tote board, putting prices on the 3rd or 4th horses on the board the public liked, longer than 6-1.  As a turf race handicapper, there are a few variables here I'd rather not deal with: Trainer motivations for this race at this track, current condition of the runners, the track itself.   As far as motivation, its a $300K G2, so I get it, but these are not the stars of the barn, these are horses that were possibly considered from Breeders' Cup, didn't perform as expected in their final tune-ups, as well as grizzled veterans, and horses that tried dirt with limited success and this is next stop.  Variables.  Variables are what put the betting capital more and more at risk. 

So if you are going to invest time handicapping a race like this,  bet construction has to weigh on your mind pretty early.  Right off the bat I see two Chad Brown horses entered. I've seen this movie too many times and I know how it ends is my first thought, but upon close inspection, neither a iron pipe locks.  Highest Honor from the 1 post has one turf win, has fared poorly in big field/outside post positions last few out.  Balthus is hard to tell at the end of 4 YO campaign where his career is headed.  These two will get bet, deservedly so, but I'm thinking my bet construction is against them.  Can I find a foil?  Soldier Rising isn't exactly a dark horse, but I like him to win enough to single him, anchor my bets to a single and then look for value in my exacta and Tri plays.   Conditioner Clement cuts back just slightly from last time out, a 4th place finish here in G1 Turf Classic.  5-6 in the money in 2022. 12 of 14 in the money lifetime turf, 4 wins in 14 turf starts.  Ortiz is up.  

If I can anchor to Soldier Rising, what do I want in exacta? Of the two Brown horses I'd rather see neither finish in Place, but I might hedge with Balthus if I'm hedging and tote board odds favor the payout, otherwise I like a group of Astronaut, Temple, Mooney Love and Reigning Spirit, tossing Highest Honor. 

Astronaut is a 5 YO Quality Road, workmanlike. 6 of 13 lifetime starts Place or Show.  Conditioner Albertrani 0 for 32 Graded Stakes on rolling one year basis.  Temple ran past 23-1 odds into Place  last time out in the G3 marathon Sycamore at KEE.  4 of 6 starts in the money in 2022 for the gelded  son of Temple City.  Mooney Love is intriguing.  Mott's been looking for the right spot for the 4 YO with one North American win, a $115K N1X at SAR last time out in late July.  Finally Albert Stall's Reigning Spirit  won last start and is training well and could provide some late deep close sizzle.  

I'm guilty of grinding these types of affairs into dust with the handicapping effort I expend, but I'm going to keep this one simple:  I'm really betting against Chad Brown, tossing 4 of the 12, and building an exacta hinged around a singled Win for Soldier Rising.  

$2 Exacta 9 OVER 4-8-6-3 is $8.  Have fun friends, Turk Out! 

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at KEE

Hello Friends and Welcome to The Turk and The Little Turk blog, a blog focused primarily on horse racing handicapping since 2008. The Jenny Wiley. Are the the sort of horse player that cares enough about the names of these races to figure out why they are named, or no? I assume if you don't care about the names of the races, you probobly don't care alot about the the names of the horses, refering to them by thier post postions. There is nothing wrong with either approach. I've tried for many years to be a horse racing fan. The sort of fan that cares about the names, the horse's, thier pedigrees, their connections, interesting backstories and strorylines. It hasn't gotten me very far except worried that the downward spiral of this sport may not be arrested. In the 1970's I was a fan of the offbeat: Boxing, Formula 1 and Horse Racing. Why? Sports Illustrated and ABC Wide World of Sports. I'm fascinated at the resurgence of F1, driven by the accessability of the drivers and the circuit through television shows. It helps there is a governing body that cares about the sport holistically. Horse racing, with their small thinkers and fifedoms and refusal to take the erradication of performance enhancing drugs seriously enough, the blind eye to excesssive on track deaths, can't/won't get out of thier own way. All of this, at a fan website, The Thorofan, mind you, was a long winded way to say there has to be a metaphor somewhere in the name of the Jenny Wiley.

Ms. Wiley was captured in 1789 right from her home by Native Americans, three of her childen and her uncle murdered, a fourth child died in the harsh conditions, sold from one tribe to another, finally escaping after having a vision in a dream of what to do. Perhaps their is an escape and revival story for horse racing somewhere. Luckily, today's race is at one of the shrines of horse racing, Keeneland, to the north and west of Ms. Wiley's ordeal. It isn't tracks like KEE that are a problem, but then again, you can't have boutique meets like KEE, SAR, and my favorite, Kentucky Downs, without the year round back track support, ownership, and the fans. The Thorofan is doing thier part. Enough old man rambling, let's get after this! How is it good for horse racing to have two Trainer Chad Brown runners making up 85% of the morning line odds. A six horse field, with Scarabea also entered in Race 5and why wouldn't she go somewhere better than his bloodbath? Anyways, lets take a look at a few races to give these runners some context. The Queen Elizabeth II Cup G1: 1 1/8 Miles on Yielding Turf KEE 16 Oct 2021 The Pucker Up Stakes G3: 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf at Ap 14 August 2021. Yielding, Firm, Good. Shantisara is the real deal. Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf G3; 1 1/16 Firm Turf GP 29 January 2022 The First Lady G1; 1 Mile Good Turf KEE 9 Oct 2021 So what to do with this? The two favorites will be bet hard, with what I would expect Shantisara being the post time tote board leader. I'm going to take an $2 Place bet for $8 on all the non Chad Brown runners and hope for the Place upset. 8/5/2/1 The turf should be somewhere between Good and Firm and no rain is in current forcast. You can find up to date track conditions here. Have fun friends. Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Dr. James Penny Memorial G3 at PARX

Fourstar Crook: NYRA Twitter Photo

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. Happy 4th of July to my American readers.

The Turk is a proud American veteran, the son and grandson of soldiers, and my message today to all my fellow Americans is to remember that we live in the greatest County the World has ever known, the most generous Nation the World has ever known, and the most loyal Nation our allies have ever known.

It's trendy to say "...I wish we were more like [fill in the blank but mostly I hear from fan boys of our Northern Neighbors]"  but the Turk ain't buying any of that and I strongly urge all the America haters to keep on hating but at least remember that being allowed to hate is  a freedom you enjoy only because it was protected by the blood of patriots.  Instead of hating, why don't you consider returning to the middle, where compromise and fairness resides.

I must admit, I almost never play PARX.  I was interested more as a horse fan as the New York bred Fourstar Crook (above) leaves the Empire State for the first time and tries to keep a seven race win streak alive.

It appears right now that it could rain in the hours before and during the race.  Keep your eyes on the Scratches and Changes and Track Condition as it gets closer to post.  I don't anticipate changing my thinking much either way.

Let's get after it!




Trainer Chad Brown (23% Turf, 24% Routes, 20% Graded Stakes, 26% Won Last Start) has Joe Bravo up on Fourstar Crook.  The 5 YO Mare will be heavily bet but I like the chalk.  Steady speed improvement over past yeara and she's stretching out another 1/16 today to a distance she has 4 wins in 5 starts at.

Thinking contrarian, I like Light Up Our World (Ire) to have odds somewhere between 5-1 and 8-1 at Post Time.  Trainer Arnuad Delacour is a 40% winner with first time Lasix, 24% Turf, 26% Routes and 23% Graded Stakes.  Flying under the radar?

Cambodia is a 5 YO War Front mare who comes in off G3 Galorett win on Preakness Day.




She had a great trip and I don't think she'll have such an easy early go in this race.  More impressive was the bad trip and late turn of foot by Elysea's World (Ire).  7 of 10 in the money over turf, the race's biggest Tomlinson on grass (443) and the highest Beyer (99).  Brown's got three in this race.

In the Eatontown Park G3 on June 3, Light in Paris (Ire) had a good trip, made a nice late move, but eased up and was taken very late. Tin Type Gal wasn't much of a factor and is tossed here today.



My Impression is an interesting 4 YO, trained by McGaughey (19% Turf, 20% Routes, 13% Graded Stakes but 26% off a 2nd off 45-180 day break).  Sharp work over Belmont grass at 4f on 26 June.  Cutting back in distance.  4 Wins in 7 starts at the distance.  Lots to like at what should be a good price.

I've tossed four, with Gone Away the only one I think of note.  Trainer Michael Matz (5% graded stakes, 14% turf and routes) had the 4 year old run :36 2/5ths at 3f on 1 July and she is in off a win  at Laurel where she powered away in a N2X 25K OC.  Stepping up.

I'm not sure what I'm going to do with it.  I'm thinking I'll hunt for exacta with a few combinations and try to eek a few bucks out of it.  I may single 10 OVER 6-1-2-3-8-9, a $2 bet for $12 and then play around with 8-6 OVER 8-6-10-2-3, a $2 Bet for $20.

Whatever you do, handicap your own race and bet responsibly.

Happy 4th of July!

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 12, 2009; The Garden City Handicap Grade I on Turf at Belmont

The Turk just returned from a trip into the Northeast where it was windy, rainy and feeling very much like the Fall. My black eyed Susan's are fading and a few of my trees are shedding leaves. Being a Northern Soul, I embrace the four seasons and don't dread the coming snow but instead I am grateful for life, love and the Autumn Meet at Belmont.

Let's get to it!

The Main Track is a sloppy mess and the Turf Course is already listed as Soft with races 1,5,9, and 10 moved to the Main. You can look at the hour by hour forecast at Belmont, but the damage is done and I wouldn't expect track condition to improve much as the day goes on.

Everything is a handicapping angle. While the Turf being soft is a hard challenge, we will stick to trying to identify a base handicap of current form, class, pace and distance and jockey/trainer success in the race specific situation. With an off turf situation, Turk's looking for late finishing speed to be what rules this race.

Race 8 at BEL; Post Time 4:43 ET (but watch for the card to be compressed because of weather); The Garden City Handicap Grade I; 1 1/8 Miles on inner Turf for Fillies 3 YO.



Trainer Chad Brown, living the dream with a 21% win rate, brings Breeders Cup Champ Maram back for her second race off a very long layoff. Maram has been training very sharply at Saratoga and banged out a bullet 5f in :59 and 2/5ths on the 7th. After her long layoff she won at One Mile on the Turf at Sartoga with a lifetime best 90 BSF. Only her 5th race, shes undefeated and has a yielding turf Grade III win at Belmont under her girth strap already. I like her post and her tactical speed. I like Chad Brown and he's starting to develop supertrainer stats and I hope that is a compliment: 24% on Turf, 22% Graded Stakes, 26% 31-60 day layoffs.

The Clement trainee Miss World is coming off a win on turf listed as good in a N1X at SAR in mid August. This is a big jump in class for the daughter of Bernstein, but it's called gambling for a reason. We like to think of it as educated gambles, and we like the late speed and the guts. A jock change to "no place like his California home" G. Gomez signals intentions. Most likely will go to post >6-1, there is value in her if she finds the top three and that's how I'm approaching it.

There is SO much to like about Gozzip Girl; A Grade III, II and I winner, 5 of 6 on the Turf, a race best 97 BSF lifetime, Desormeaux up, a yielding turf win,and great Jock/Trainer specific stats; 445 win rate together at BEL, 25% wins in Graded Stakes, 25% wins off last start win, 21% on a 61-180 day layoff. And that's my slight rub, freshened since 5 July, breaking from post 1, she's got plenty to win this race but I'm leaning towards a slight fallback to her battle ready competitors. More then good enough to be in top four.

My B Group are a nice collection of runners who will factor in the ticket most likely in the 3 and 4 spot. I'll work some of them in accordingly.

So what's it all mean? I'll be watching the tote and the scratches and the weather leading up to post time. I'll have a superfecta and trifecta strategy based on my base handicap and I'll generate 5-6 variations on that. I'm also leaning towards shifting to some value exactas or even win bets if I get the right price on a few runners here.

Be flexible, but be prepared.

Have fun, Turk Out!

LATE NEWS:
MARAM has indeed scratched.

Gomez is off of Miss World as well.