The Nomination Is In: The Hal's Hope Grade 3 at Gulfstream Park

Out of the Handicapper Hibernation

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our tenth year of providing free handicapping to people who never asked for it.  Before I start to blather, I'd like to thank the good folks at The Thorofan and the The Thorofan Handicappers Corner for welcoming me today as guest handicapper.

What's with the bear?  I like to take a siesta from handicapping every year, usually just after the Clark Handicap when Churchill's late year season is wrapping up.  This past year I shut it down right after the Breeders' Cup.  I have always found these extended handicapper holiday's helpful to me to clear my mind and reset.  I haven't a clue who's on the Kentucky Derby trail, didn't pay any attention to the Pegasus World Cup, nothing, no racing, no handicapping, no blogging.  I do indeed feel fresh and ready to get back after it.  I'm not much of a young 3 YO gambler, I prefer the handicap division with older horses and today's Hal's Hope, 1 Mile over Dirt for 4 Year Olds and Up fills the bill.

Let's get after it!

This is obviously not peak racing season. This is a time of the year where trainers are just shaking the farm rest out of the their handicap division, while others, the journeyman horses, are just running and can only dream about a long romp in a pasture.  My ROI in early season is so-so, especially when I try to get fancy.  I will not be getting fancy here.

The weather may be wet Saturday and it bears watching.  You can find the scratches and changes and track conditions by following this link.  The Gulfstream website was clearly not set up for horseplayers, it is a messy jumble.

I don't see this race as very complex:  There is a clear line of quality runners that are on the outskirts, but in the Grade 1 conversation, and then a few that barely belong in graded stakes competition.  

As my chart shows, I think you can throw a blanket over the likelihood that Malagacy, Send It In or Economic Model can win.  While the odds are similar, I do however like them in the order I listed.

Malagacy had a long break after leaving the Derby Trail in April last year. This is his second off the long break, something Pletcher wins 17% of the time. He'll be very early speed and it's just a question if he can carry.  

Send It In is off a break since last April and this is his first start, something Pletcher is actually 33% good at  in 87 tries.  The six year old Big Brown New York Bred is 14 of 15 on Fast Dirt in the money.  Expect him on the ticket.

Trainer Chad Brown brings the inconsistent 5 YO Economic Model in off a long layoff since October, something Brown wins 28% of the time on 160 tries.  It's really staggering Brown's stat's by the way:  30% winner on 202 tries Won Last Start, 26% of Routes on 652 tries.  

Just below that top group is Irish War Cry, Derby Trail darling on the shelf since a dull PA Derby in September.  Motion is a deliberate trainer, but this is his backyard and I think this is just a tune up with low expectations other than a good run. I need to see something first, but class alone makes him dangerous from Place down.  

Trainer Donna Green has no wins in 4 tries at Graded Stakes in past year and her runner Conquest Big E will be big early pace but should falter to better runners late.  Should.  Show or 4th not unreasonable if hunting value.

The gelded Street Sense 5 YO, Tower of Texas goes on a Turf to Dirt switch for Roger Attfield which feels like an unsure test.  Where he finishes, your guess is as good as mine.

As I said, nothing fancy for me this time of year.  I'll be looking at Exacta's built off my base handicap and I'll use the Tote Board to help me build a bet worth betting.  I'm thinking no more than 5 separate $2 combinations for $10 total and all of them with a 4-1 or better Tote Board Post Time odds on top.  

Have fun with the races friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Donn Handicap G1

Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk, now in our 8th season of providing not much service to very few readers.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan Handicapper's Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.

The Donn!  The Grade 1 Older Horse Division race that for me is the kickoff to any new racing season.The Turk tries not to get too wrapped up in the Derby Trail as I like the older horses and they fit my handicapping style better.  Why? Data.  I look at the past performances of a race like The Donn and I see data, I see 10 plus races of history, stats, pace, information.

What did I see on the Past Performances for this race?  Not much I liked, or better said, a very deep field that the degenerate gambler in me would normally pass on.  You can find easy marks on any card at any field, so why bet a stacked field like this?  Why does any track investor bet? For a return on investment.  It comes down to do I like a horse or two at a price that the betting public laid off a bit?  I don't need crazy long shots, that's for frat boys and movies, I need 4-6 to 1 odds and an exotic view on the race.

Do I have it here?  I dunno.  I'm doing this handicap and bet preparation on a Wednesday night before I know if there are scratches/changes or track conditions less that fast dirt.  I intentionally handicap without the knowledge of morning lines because that's bias I don't need.  Let me hit you with my thoughts and give you my opinion with the cavet that if I did bet this race it would be 10 mins to post after I watched the tote board a bit.

Let's go!











These two videos give you a pretty good feel for Gulfstream Park combatants Madefromlucky (who skipped the Hal's Hope), Mshawish (who skipped Harlan's Holiday for the Cigar Mile) Valid, and Mexikoma (who skipped the Hal's Hope for the Sunshine Millions Classic).

I think money will flow to Keen Ice and why not?  Well, Trainer Roman's is 6% off a 61-180 day break, with 93 chances, and the horse, for is $1.8 Million in earnings, has 2 wins in 13 starts, 1 win in 9 starts in 2015 and only 4 of 9 in the money.  Lightning may drop on me from the heavens, but I put no stock in what a horse does at Saratoga so quite frankly I don't care that he won the Traver's. Bet him, go ahead, I may be wrong but I'm laying off the win for Keen Ice.  I'm not even covering him in the money right now.  

It's a great time to get on my soap box about making decisions.  I don't know if I'm right about Keen Ice, but I have to make an informed decision otherwise when I make my bet selection up I'll cover everyone because I've tossed no one.  Have some conviction, take a stand.

My tepid chalk is Valid.  The 6 YO is 10 of 12 at GP, 4 of 4 in the money at the distance, 9 wins in 28 tries on fast dirt.  The jock colony shunned him with Saez jumping off for Pletcher's Itsaknockout,  Might be too much for him, he did get caught at 1 mile in the Hal's Hope, but he's game and he'll be driving, Win, Place or Show.

I feel pretty similar with Mshawish.  I have no reason to not expect him to be driving at the end, but this is a new distance for the 1 time winner on dirt.

Thinking of the pace, I can see Mott's Closing Bell closing hard in the last 1/16th.  The numbers say no, but he's been training well and my only concern is speed.  Guess we will find out.

Madefromlucky/Financial Modeling and even Closing Bell I'm tossing a blanket over. I think all will be moving forward except Financial Modeling who may drop sooner but will turn some fast panels early.

Itsaknockout is more than capable.  I most likely have underestimated him and he should most likely be in my Place or Show spot.

It's rare for me to truly toss anyone from the exotic ticket but this is a solid field and I have no strong feelings in any one way.

For the sake of the readers I'll make a theoretical bet based on this base handicap.

I'm going to place a $1 Trifecta which will cost $29 on:

4-3 OVER 4-3-5-7-2 OVER 4-5-7-2-8.  I brought Itsaknockout up but left Keen Ice on the outside.  I have two of my Also Ran's in my Bet Selection, Keen Ice and Mexikoma, just a reflection of how I'm feeling about the pace.

I think this is a dog with fleas so I'm leaving my remaining $71 dollars in my pocket which is sometimes a gambler's best bet.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis: Hal's Hope and San Pasqual

Mshawish by a neck over Valid: Photo Leslie Martin/GS Park

There wasn't much money to be made, but good handicapping is good handicapping, and I'm always trying to hone the craft.


A long time ago I made the decision that if I was going to take on the opportunity costs of a race I should also make the effort to review not only my handicapping post race, but also my bet strategy to see if what I did made sense, and more importantly, made a return on my investment.

Hal's Hope G3 Gulfstream Park Race 7: 9 January 2016

The key to my Hal's Hope strategy was plugging Grande Shores into Show.  I expected a different pace scenario and expected him to be moving forward and not backwards at the line, but regardless, he was 5th on the tote board and I had him third.  With Valid/Mshawish covered for Win and Place, and Grande Shores/Matrooh covered for Show a $2 Bet costs $8 and it offered a $33.40 return.   $8 for $33.40 is a good ROI for a 5 horse field.  The Superfecta wasn't worth the bet and seldom is in small fields, returning only $6.34 for $1 buck.    It's so easy and tempting to rip up the tickets and walk away when your bets don't work, but take the time now and then to think about the results and what you could have done differently and you'll improve.

San Pasqual G2 Santa Anita Race 8:  9 January 2016

Picking California Chrome isn't that hard, and the top four on the tote board finished in the top four here which doesn't bode well for wagers unless you single or use a matrix.  The matrix I assembled but didn't bet for The San Pasqual was  5/4 OVER 5/4/6/2/8 Over 4/6/2/8 OVER 6/2/8.  A $1 bet would have cost $30 and returned $57.20.  While still a positive ROI, you'll leave money on the table when you are being discerning.  I was more into the return of Chrome as a fan than a bettor and no regrets to pass on this wager.







Anyway's, it's a good start for the Turk and his red gel pen in 2016.  Happy Handicapping to Everyone.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The G3 Hal's Hope and the Grade 2 San Pasqual

California Chrome: Photo AP

Hello Friends to the 8th year of The Turk and the Little Turk: Horses, Handicapping and Hijinks.

Must See TV.  Any race with California Chrome, a Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Santa Anita Derby winner, a champion, not gelded, who is still racing at age 5, is cause for celebration in my book.

There are plenty of folks on the other side of the fence that hold a grudge against the horse because his connections are a bit o' jackass but I never hate the horse for something the humans do, and God knows, human's do plenty of stupid things in this sport.

The Handicap Division is what the Turk is all about.  I love the older horses, the journeymen who toil away for their owners, more valuable racing that making more horses, or gelded and doing all they can do.  I dig the older horses.  I know most race fans are paying attention to the Sham or some other 3 YO race today, but I couldn't care less yet about the babies.  They will have their time.  I'll catch Derby fever soon enough but the hype machine is something I like to ignore as a handicapper and I'd prefer to see a bit of ink on the PPs before I place investment capital on the line.

Anyway, I'm looking today at Gulfstream and the Hal's Hope and at Santa Anita's San Pasqual.  I've been on handicappers holiday since The Clark Handicap the day after Thanksgiving so I may be rusty, but hey, the red gel pen has muscle memory. Let's get after it!

Valid: Equi-Photo/Taylor Ejdys

Mshawish, a 6 time Turf winner, tried to win his first on fast dirt.  He's a classy horse with very solid connections, yet the Turk is shading towards Valid, winner of 33% of his races on fast dirt, 4 of 11 starts at the distance and 6 wins in 11 starts at GP.  I like the gelded 6 YO's work tab and I think it's his to lose.

I'm taking Grande Shores over a better horse, Matrooh for Show. The 8 YO son of Black Mambo, Grande Shores likes to close on the pack and I'd hedging that he hangs around long enough to come a running for third.  This is the veteran's 22nd start at GP, 16 of 21 in the money, 29 of 38 in the money on fast dirt and 36 of 50 lifetime in the money.

At Santa Anita, the contrarian in me is looking for Hoppertunity to upset California Chrome for the win spot.  Chrome had 2 starts in 2015 and I don't care how good he was, I don't know how good he'll be until I see him.  His work looks good and I'd love to see him freak, so I'll cover the win spot, but the degenerate gambler in me would prefer place.

I like Hard Aces, a six year old Hard Spun, to hit the ticket.  He likes to come late, so I'm going with a similar pace idea as in the Hal's Hope and I'm looking for him to pull onto the ticket in the last 1/16.  Blingo, The Moss's 7 YO gelded Artie Schiller, faded in this race last year and hasn't won since last February.  I think he's right there above the trailers.  Imperative has no wins in 9 starts at Santa Anita, no wins in 3 tries at the distance  and 1 win in 14 tries on fast dirt and he was winless in six starts in 2015.  3 wins in 27 career starts but $1.7 million in winnings, starting to look like a lot of luck when he beat Game on Dude in the Charles Town Classic.

Whatever you do, have fun and enjoy yourself.  Forget the sheets of any color and instead read the works of guys like Brad Free and Tom Ainsilie and work on your 'capping without the pressure of gambling.  Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park

River Seven

Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk's handicap of the Donn Handicap from Gulfstream Park.  Friends of The Turk know that he pretty much ignores two year old racing, enjoys three year old's and the excitement of the Triple Crown Series, but that his real passion is the Handicap Division, our older runners.  Why?  I love to look at my printed out past performances and scribble on horses with 15 starts or more,  with a history, a record that I can sink my analytical teeth into. I like to study the past performances and video and nothing jazzes me up more than seeing a horse blossom as a four or five year old who was labeled as a bust by March of his three year old season.

The Donn Handicap is named after the Donn family that owned and managed the track for sixty years, starting with James Donn, and then James Jr and finally Douglas. While they might not recognize the place anymore, the track is still magic this time of the year when most of the Eastern United States is suffering through polar vortex's and such.

I'd be remiss in not thanking first the good folks at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts today with you in their Handicapper's Corner.  You can find out about Thorofan's Goals from this link and there is South Florida chapter waiting to make you part of the group.

You can take a  few different views on horses:  They start the next season in the same form as they ended the last OR some of them go back to the farm and don't come back the same, at least not right away.  There is always a bit of mystery how they will perform early in the season, but by the Donn most of the runners have either been working regularly or on their second starts off the break.  When I think of The Donn, I think of The Hal's Hope, a Grade 3 event at Gulfstream in early January that is often the first race off the break for the trainers in residence.  Let's take a peek at some of today's runners: Lea, Uncaptured and Neck 'n Neck.





In December Neck 'n Neck, River Seven and Bourbon Courage got together at Gulfstream in the $100,000 Harlan's Holiday.




and I'll only go as far back as The Clark Handicap the day after Thanksgiving at Churchill Downs.






This is a deep and deceptively very good field. I could make a case for six horses winning but hey, this is gambling and we have to take a position and stick with it.  If you handicap the same way, and you approach the races with method and consistency, you'll find that races like this won't be any easier.  That's the reality, no method can make a good race decode into a winning ticket.  What I think I've done is identify the layers, the groupings that these horses are within and from these groupings an exotic ticket can be assembled.  Out of each group someone my drop in group or rise in group and when I do post race analysis (i.e. hindsight handicapping) it always seems so clear where I went wrong.

Let's get after it!

The top layer of potential winners (In Blue) and the next layer of horses (in Yellow) have very little separating them.  For better or worse I'm going to back River Seven to win. For a fan of horse racing in Ontario, its a hoot for me to see River Seven and Uncaptured here together. Winner of the late December Harlan's Holiday, I think he could stay near the lead and wire it.  Trainer Gonzalez 9% off the break and him and Rocco, up, do well together.

River Seven is about as tepid a chalk as I make, and I'm hedging with Romansh and Revolutionary.  Both come in off impressive wins.  Romansh , a pricey Bernadini for Godolphin, made the Aqueduct Discovery Handicap a easy looking romp. Trainer Albertrani is 9% off the break as well.  Johnny V is up.

Revolutionary was shutdown after the Belmont and clipped along nicely in a $100K OC at Gulfstream a few weeks back:




I guess I should stop and say I'm not sure where the pace is coming from in this race.  That clouds the betting analysis as I don't see where a horse like Revolutionary will slot in. Someone will shoot out and an off the pace runner like this will have someone to slingshot off of I reckon. Pletcher's WinStar runner seems primed for a good run and I'm excited to see such quality in the handicap division.  23% off the break, Castellano and Pletcher are 33% together on 125 GP starts this past year!

Lea, wearing colors I still see Blame in as he beat mighty Zenyatta, won the Hal's Hope in his first fast dirt effort.  Mott took over for Stall and we'll see what he can do with a 5 YO that didn't really fire last year.  Rosario up.  I can close my eyes and see Lea at the front, and while I'm sure that wouldn't be the strategy, he could steal it from the front end.  Very strong liking today.

Uncaptured should like the extra distance.  Posts 1-2-3 have won 20 of 32 races this meet.  He could drop in layers but I don't see much reason to think he'd freak up to Win.

Will Take Charge is my favorite of last year's 3 YOs and I'm super excited he's still in training.  That said, Lukas is 3% off long break and this is first race since the Clark.  Training OK, He's going to get heavy betting action and i'm betting him out of Win and Place.  $3.0 MM winner.  Two Grade 1's, two Grade 2's.  Serious.  Doesn't help he gets 123 pounds today, 7 more than River Seven.

Neck n' Neck and Bourbon's Courage round out a solid field of possible contenders.  Neck n' Neck has been horrible at GP, no wins in 5 starts.  Bourbon Courage is training sharp with three straight bullets and is always moving forward.  Could crash the exotic party.

I'm tossing 7-10-11 at my own peril.

So what do I do with this?  The Super High Five is on the menu.  I feel compelled to bet it, but low dollar straight bets, the kinda win that a handicapper's legend is made from if he hits it.  A realistic bet from me might be something along the lines of:



I have no idea how this will finish;  I do know its a big field, with 6 out of 11 I think could win, and it should be a fun race.  Welcome back Handicap Division, I've missed you.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 15, 2011: The Sham and San Fernando at Santa Anita Park

The Turk is back in snow filled Buffalo after a long work week in California.

I've not felt very sharp with my handicapping since shutting myself down for a break after the Breeders' Cup. Any horseplayer knows what I'm talking about: You have stretches of time when you feel unbeatable and then others where you can't seem to find clarity when starring at the PP's. I've been handicapping long enough to know the best way to start to get your groove on is to just keep handicapping, analyzing the race charts afterwards, and focus in on something you're good at in order to build confidence.

I don't preach one thing here and do something completely different. I've been increasing the number of handicaps I work on each week, decreasing my actual betting, and gaining confidence as I count my virtual winnings and ROI.

I also find it helpful that I can ignore playing synthetic tracks if I want to. That wasn't an anti plastic rant as I was growing indifferent to the surface, but it is very nice to be handicapping this wickedly fast Santa Anita Dirt Track and not think about if I need to apply my turf racing angles when on plastic, or even worse, having to think about what version of plastic the track happens to have. Tedious, and I feel free of that.

The Turk is again involved this year with a project by Steve over at Wireplayers.com to identify the best three years old on their march to the Kentucky Derby. The panel of voters is impressive and deep and I'm humbled to be counted among them. We had ALOT of fun with this last year and we will be back this coming Wednesday, and will be out with a new polling every three weeks after that until the day of the Derby post draw. I hope you tune in and have some fun with us.

The Turk's Blog is subtitled "Horses, Handicapping and Hijinks". I'm going to add in 2011 a monthly Hijinks post where I will give advice and tips on gifts and gear for horseplayers and men of certain age with discriminating taste as well as travel stories and fun times at the track. As much as I enjoy the horses, the conversations I've had with strangers at the track are some of my favorite moments.

Anyway, that's about how deep my new year resolutions go towards my horse racing passion, more of the same would sum it up! Let's get after two graded stakes at Santa Anita today.


Santa Anita Race 3 and Race 8



The long travel week left me just wanting to do some handicapping and inner-race betting. These two races seemed like interesting targets. In the Grade 3 Sham Stakes a five horse field will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Tapizar makes his forth start for Steve Asmussen who puts Gomez up today. First start for the son of Tapit, and coming off a layoff since Thanksgiving Day. The colt has been training nicely at Santa Anita with a 6f in 1:12 2/5ths and 4f in :47 1/5 and I will expect him to be a heavy chalk but I'm looking at Clubhouse Ride to give him a tussle. Making his 11th start already, he comes in with three straight show efforts and a blazing 4f in :45 3/5ths this week. 7 of 10 in the money and a 422 Tomlinson at the distance, Valenzeula is up for Trainer Craig Lewis, owner of 9 Grade Stakes starts and no wins. Baffert's wildcard Uncle Sam makes just his second start and I need to see a bit more today before getting to caught up, but Bejarano is up and he has one win on this dirt track already.

In the Grade 2 San Fernando, a scratch by Sidney's Candy while he gets healthy leaves a wide open race. I'm looking at the speed of Tweebster to be a serious challenge for the others. Indian Firewater will run with him, but the colt has 6 places in 13 starts and seems content being close but not winning. A switch to Mike Smith today may prompt a better finish but previous jocks were no slouches either. Thisskyhasnolimits has been very consistent for the past 4 races and will fire off a good effort and I expect he'll find the ticket. Hamish Hy is an interesting entrant, with no dirt or distance efforts but a Grade I turf horse can't be ignored. Trainer Art Sherman has won 3 of 6 turf/dirt switches.

I haven't had time to blog out my post race analysis from last week, but below is the Pick three from Gulfstream and missed by 1 1/4 length when Detirminato edged out Leave of Absence. I was happy to identify the winners of both other races. An OK effort I reckon, but you either win money or you lose money, no moral victories. The pick three paid $320 on a $1 dollar bet, fueled by Detirminato's win, but in the easy mark category, I had The Hal's Hope pegged with what seemed to me a very simple superfecta win. I boxed but still walked away with nearly $135 bucks, offsetting my $30 loss on Pick Three and $10 on a Spectacular Bid exacta bet gone slightly off target.



Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 8, 2011; Gulfstream Park Pick Three including the Hal's Hope Grade III

The holidays are over, and when you live in Buffalo, all you have left to look forward to is two solid months of miserable cold weather and snow and short, dark days. It's not hard to turn your eyes south and focus on the fact that the horse racing season has begun. The Hal's Hope and the Spectacular Bid are a good way to reengage with Gulfstream Park, where many of the best horses in America have been wintering and planning their campaigns. Let's get it on!

Gulfstream Park Pick Three Race 7-8-9



This is a challenging three race sequence. I'm OK with handicapping any race, but the other side of the coin is actually betting, and when I got done handicapping these Past Performances I was left with the feeling that I was either dead on or wildly whacked. The Turk is a big advocate of responsible betting. That wasn't a moral message about controlling your vices, as the Turk also doesn't judge anyone. What I mean by responsible betting is long ago I gave up the notion I had to bet every race I watched or handicapped. I pick and choose my marks, and I watched my personal ROI skyrocket as I got over the inclination of reflex betting. I still lay duds from time to time, but its fewer and farther in between because I'm perfectly OK with holding back the bet, handicapping, and then critiquing my handicap after the fact to try and analyze why I was so risk averse. Funny things happen when you do this: Sometimes you win and leave good money on the table, and sometimes you lose. Either way, learn something from every handicap, and of course, have fun!

Race 7, the Spectacular Bid, was won last year by a Turk favorite, A Little Warm. We again express our remorse over the loss of A Little Warm's owner, Edward Evans. Nine horses are entered and I struggled with naming a chalk. As a bit of a stretch, and an eye towards value, I placed Grande Shores on top. The son of Black Mambo comes off the pace well, and there will be a hot pace with Wildcat Formation and Duel Exhauzt, and I think he's improving and may catch a few of the assuredly better colts off their games today. To not like is the 0% win Jock/Trainer combo in 25 races at GP.

Leave of Absence runs back after a a 94 BSF at the Big A in November. Training sharply, the Harlan's Holiday son is trained by Richard Violette.

Gangsterontherun is my expected winner, also making his third start like Leave of Absence. Solis is up for Trainer Wesley Ward and the horse has been training very sharply at GP since Thanksgiving and put up two :47 3/5 4f efforts recently.

A tough race indeed and if I wanted to over cover I'd throw in Duel Exhauzt and a Desormeaux mount, War for Gus.

Race 8 is a stocked 1 mile turf N3X Optional Claimer. I think that Guy's Reward and Sleepless Knight are the best of the field. Kelly Breen trained Sleepless Knight is coming off a long layoff, something he only wins 11% of the time, but has won 3 of 6 turf races and 5 of 6 in the money.

Guy's Reward won on yielding turf last time out at CD in late November. The 4YO son of Grand Reward has Desourmeaux up again and Desormeaux and Trainer Romans win together 30% of the time. Expect a nice late turn of foot.

I like the Roger Attfield runner Jimmy Simms to challenge based on the 6 YOs consistently purposeful running. Asphalt is a 4 YO War Chant son who is 9 of 12 in the money on turf. Trainer Eddie Kenneally wins 21% on turf and Leparoux/Keeneally win 20% of the time together in a many start relationship. Dark Cove and Oil Man (IRE) loom as possibles as well. If Dark Cove runs he may need a new jock as Leparoux is assigned to him as well.

And in Race 9, the Hal's Hope, one monster looms, one challenger is possible, and one deja vu horse reemerges. The monster seems to be Morning Line. Nick Zito's runner has two straight 100+ BSF including a very gutty Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, losing by a head to Dakota Phone. 6 of 7 lifetime in the money for the 4 YO son of Tiznow.

Soaring Empire (pictured above) also has two straight 100+ BSF efforts including a deceptive 6th in the Cigar Mile Grade I. Trainer Cam Gambolati is winless in four graded stakes efforts and only started 78 runners in 2010.

Rule returns is the deja vu moment, as last winter he seemed on the verge of a breakout only to be shutdown after failing in the Florida Derby as the chalk. Trainer Pletcher wins 23% of his greater than 180 day layoffs but this seems daunting. Takleberry will gamely provide pace.

I've put together two variations of a $36-$30 dollar pick three bet that is defensive and maybe meek. I may have to rethink as scratches and changes flow in.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 3, 2010; The Hal's Hope at Gulfstream & Post Race Analysis for The Count Fleet & San Gorgonio Hcp.

The fine looking, Allen Jerkens trained horse to the left is none other then two time Grade III winner, Le Grand Cru, the Turk's tepid chalk in the Grade III Hal's Hope on opening day at Gulfstream Park. Yesterday's two handicaps kicked off another year of publicly handicapping the ponies for The Turk. While I would have loved to report a big splash, it was more workmanlike and typical of the type of racetrack scores that don't kill you but don't make you rich either. Let's talk about yesterday and then get to today!

Race 8 Aqueduct: The Count Fleet Stakes; 1 mile and 70 yards on fast inner track dirt for 3 YOs and Race 8 at Santa Anita: The San Gorgonio Handicap Grade III; 1 1/8 miles on firm turf for F&M 4 YO and Up.



Full disclosure. I fell asleep yesterday afternoon and woke up with a few minutes to post at Aqueduct in the Count Fleet. I was less excited about this race anyhow after Peppi Knows scratched. I expected a better effort from Ibboyee and I hated the odds this horse was bet down to. I also liked my base handicap and didn't like the idea of a sub $10 exacta winner so I shook off the cobwebs, looked at the Tote Board and bet my 2nd and 3rd choices, which lined up with what the bettors thought as well. Laus Deo rewarded my rather lazy and uninspired bet, but a win is a win.

At Santa Anita, the scratch of Life Is Sweet eliminated a serious money magnet from the mix. I waited patiently on the tote board to see how the bettors responded and the response was about what I expected: Diamondrella was bet down to near even money with money spread nearly evenly between Cat by the Tale, Treat Gently (GB) and Diamondrella (GB). About the best value on the board was Century Park, who pre race I said would set the pace and get gobbled up at the top of the stretch, which is exactly what happened. Without a strong opinion I relied on my first impression of the race, my base handicap. Using it I constructed a win bet, an exacta and I came close to a Superfecta. I had the superfecta lined up to bet but it was a 5 horse box and I didn't think the reward was worth the bet. In hindsight I miscalculated and I left about 24 bucks at the window that should have been mine but mistakes happen, even in the confines of my quiet den. Mistakes are multiplied at the track itself with all kinds of distractions, so do your homework before you get to the track.

The results of the day were positive but more the result of good bet construction then handicapping. I don't always focus my blog on the bet construction mechanics for time constraint reasons, but soon I will do a cradle to grave blog post with spreadsheets and all on both side of the equation. I get more satisfaction from the handicapping side of things, but I get less grief from Mrs. Turk when the betting side of it pans out. A dichotomy for this horse players soul for sure!

Race 8 Gulfstream Park post time 4:43 ET; The Hal's Hope Grade III; 1 Mile on Dirt for 4 YOs and Up.



The best horse in the race is Quality Road followed by Harlem Rocker, two Pletcher trainees. That said, both enter with questions to answer and will hit the top four on class and skill more then anything else, and either could win, but I'm hunting for value and I like Le Grand Cru to win his third straight Grade III.

Le Grand Cru last raced in late October and has strung two straight upper 90 BSFs together to win two Grade III events. Working steady and fast at GP since mid December. The 5 YO son of Dynaformer is detirmined and will strike the lead early and won't cave in even if he slips back in the middle points of call. Sure its a crap shoot but most likely enters the post >5-1. No worse then fourth.

Harlem Rocker is a grade I winning miler who has raced once in over 14 months. :59 2/5ths at 5f in a handride just before XMAS, sharp enough to be competitive, talented enough to win.

Quality Road needs no introduction to most observers of our sport. Supremely talented, a bit of a tease, I do like him at 1 mile more then >8f but this is the first time back in a starting gate for real since the meltdown on live TV two months ago. I was surprised not to see some gate break training works but I'm not an Eclipse Award winning trainer so I'll zip it.

The rest of the field is a mixed bag, with the best of the bunch being You and I Forever. I'm looking at Spin Master as possibly busting into the top four.

Have fun, Turk Out!