The Nomination is In: April 25, 2009; The Withers GIII and The Derby Trial GIII

With most race fans getting Derby fever, Keeneland closing, Churchill Downs opening, there is quite a bit to get excited about. The Turk prefers to get excited by honing his handicapping mind on some horses this week that at one time were considered Triple Crown Nominees, some of which could emerge in the shorter Preakness, but will most definitely not be racing for the roses. The first race is a 4:50 ET post at Aqueduct, The Withers Grade III. For the sharp eyed amongst you, that handsome grey is Ontario bred, hero of Fort Erie and the 2008 Prince of Wales Stakes and Withers Champion Harlem Rocker, with Coa Up.

Race 9 AQU: The Withers GIII; 1 Mile on Dirt for 3 YOs



This Ones for Phil will go to the post a huge favorite, with odds pushed to 3-2 or worse. With a 7 horse field as of right now, if this race is worth betting it will take the heavy chalk finishing no better then 2nd. I'm going to key my hopes on Mr. Fantasy and then look for value adders like Everyday Heroes, most likely going to post >12-1, and Gone Astray, most likely a >7-1 starter, to fill in some spots on my tickets. That's my strategy after one cup of coffee and I'm sticking to it. As always, watch the tote and work your handicap.

The next race I'm noodling with is at Churchill Downs, The Derby Trials Grade III. This race which goes to post at 5:17 ET, features Turk Favorite Silver City. Another handsome gr/ro. is last year's winner Macho Again, with Leparoux up, today's Silver City rider.




Race 10 CD: The Derby Trials Grade III; 7 1/2 furlongs on KY Dirt(!) for 3 YOs.



I like Silver City, especially after being freshened up and given more realistic expectations. This is an opposite situation then the Withers where I will be betting against the chalk. Here I will look to supplement an expected chalk with others in some low cost, OK reward prospects. Instead of hunting for 20 dollar exactas today I may try to swing for the fences with some straight Tri's and Super's and have some fun. I like Hull's work and Santana Six is interesting to me as well. The rest of the field is sorta ho-hum. Ho-Hum can be a bettors best friend as it creates unexpected results.

Enjoy. It's 70 degrees in Buffalo, Turk is Out!

The Nomination is in: February 16th, 2009

The Turk is very interested in the Southwest today at Oaklawn. 10 of the 401 Triple Crown nominees are present, which means someone has a chance to announce themselves as a real contender, but many more will be exposed as good horses who shouldn't be spoken of in the same breath as Triple Crown.



It seems to me that Silver City and Old Fashioned are the two best horses in this race. I believe, as many others do, that Old Fashioned is a special horse; Good at 2 YO but not rushed, allowed to be a horse for a long break after Thanksgiving, working steady and fast, and the absolute best Trainer working in North America right now, Larry Jones. Jones saddled 477 runners in 2008. It was too many for a trainer who believes in the traditional ways of doing things, the right way of doing things. For all those reasons, Old Fashioned is going to be fully prepared for the Derby, but maybe he's not at his absolute best today. The competition to garner the earnings in this era of fewer prep races must be intense. I think Old Fashioned could win this race even at 90% effort.

I think Silver City is a fine horse. The Unbridled's Song son may be a classic distance runner, but he'll have to prove himself at longer distances. William Calhoun, who saddled 866 runners in 2008, winning 26% of the time, including a gaudy 28% on dirt, 27% of last start winners and 26% off >31 day layoff, has been working Silver City in a mixture of 1 mile breezes and 4 and 5f bullets.

After the big two, there are some interesting horses running today that could take a real leap up in profile, including one I don't have the guts to pick too high, but I go hmmmmmm when I look at his run lines, Kick On. I don't like his post position, but he's working really well and fast. At 1 mile, with the speed he's been flashing, you never know, especially if the fractions get numbing. He's flashed early speed in his races but faded, so well see.

On an unrelated note, the Turk is now a Thorofan. After reading the news that Turk jock favorite Richard Migliore joined the fledgling group, I wanted to be a part of a grass roots organization like this that is about the fans and growing the sport. Thorofan should consider the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance as a strategic partner, providing a fan voice to the fan group.

For more information: www.thorofan.com