The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Showing posts with label Dona Bruja (Arg). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dona Bruja (Arg). Show all posts
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.
While I'm bummed to not be at this year's edition of Million Day, I know I'll be back soon and I'm still excited to play and be apart of the action. That's Little Turk and I hanging out on MillionPreview Day 2009. AP gave away hats that day (Little Turk wearing) and I'm sporting a Santa Anita 2008 Breeders' Cup hat. There should be better horse hats available for fans, but sadly they are mostly junk.
In yesterday's blog posting I put up my thoughts on The Million and this morning I'm fleshing out my thoughts on at least the Pick Three that begins with Race 9, The Secretariat and continues on in Race 10, The Beverly D.
What am I looking for in Turf racers? I like to see late turn of foot, trip information for at least the last three months of races, gas conditions and distance that the horse has had the most sucess with, and class. I'm less interested in W-P-S results than the visual look of the race shape and what the horse was able to do with the trip and pace it was presented with. When judging Euros I use the Timeform information available and gather as much information as I can.
Let's work our way through the video handicapping of both races first.
Let's get after this!
Working backwards, relevant video on Race 10, the 1 3/16 Mile Beverly D. The Diana G1 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf- Sistercharlie
In Race 9, The Secretariat at 1 1/4 Miles for 3 YOs
Belmont Derby 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf- Analyze It and Hunting Horn (IRE)
Kent Stakes G3 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf: Carrick and Untamed Domain. The former had no excuse while the later had a horrible trip.
Nasrullah Handicap 1 1/4 Miles Left Handed on Good Ground. Lucius Tiberius (Ire)
You'll find video of the American Derby G3 7 July 2018 at this link: Dubby Dubbie, Captivating Moon,Pont Du Gard and Real Story.
You'll find a scouting report on Lucius Tiberius and Hunting Hornhere.
The cost to benefit ratio of any horizontal bet is the races that add uncertainty, and with that uncertainty, long prices in the Win Spot. In this sequence, Race 9 to me seems the most possible to produce a >10-1 Winner and possibly>12-1. Avoid the temptation to cover too many horses, as in my example a 5-2-4 combo at $2 is an $80 bet. I would rather lose $16 with a chance at winning three figures than bet $80 to make $80. I'm most likely settling on Lucius Tiberius and Hunting Horn OVER Sistercharlie OVER Robert Bruce, Oscar Performance, Spring Quality and Almanaar. I'd actually be OK to $32 but you get the idea.
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk. Little Turk and I are back after a beautiful weekend in Chicago.
What a difference a year makes: Last year we broiled under the sun and this year, while not cool, was far from warm. Either way, no rain, firm turf and a great time.
I can never say enough about the Arlington International Racecourse. They treat you good, the facility is well maintained, and the fan experience for me never fails.
The only downer for me was the death of Permian and the injury to William Buick. It literally happened the first hop after the finish line and Little Turk and I saw it happen in real time. The horse appeared to me to have suffered a terrible break and I told the Little Turk I didn't think he was savable and he wasn't. Bless his heart, he remembers the dead and he immediately thought of when we saw Turk favorite George Washington break down in the Breeders' Cup Classic on a sloppy track in Monmouth. Buick's father is quoted as saying William is in good spirits and was set to fly home on the Sunday after the race (Fuller) . With Scottish (Ire) scratching in the Arlington Million, his day was over. Now lets just hope we see him up again soon.
I felt bad for the connections, as they were visibly upset on the track, looking for a divot or anything that may have led to the break and the fall. I commend the track for getting the temporary barriers up quickly. I personally don't care for how quickly we move on as a sport when one of the runners breakdowns like that. I understand the horse player attitude, I witnessed it in my Twitter feed the lack of "dwelling" on it, the desire to forget it quickly, the harassing of anyone that showed empathy. It's just not me. It bothered me on Saturday and it bothers me the number of deaths at Saratoga this year. Writers I know and respect constantly downplay it, write it off to coincidence, cite the varied ways the breakdowns happened. Like I said, I hold onto these deaths longer and I don't have any answers, just an observation that the horse racing media doesn't like to talk about the breakdowns more often, doesn't aid the fan in the process of grief anywhere near as much as they could.
It's hard to call a day where we risked $476 dollars and grossed $882 in returns unsuccessful, but I was a mess most of the day on my verticals while my horizontal P3's were very good. Silly me not playing the P4's, which would have made me low four figures, but I left that money on the table. I said I was a mess, mostly on the bet construction side of things. In fairness, the handicapping wasn't bad.
Anyway, I've got the charts update with Post Race Info and the bet results are below that. At least it wasn't that chalky.
Welcome friends to the Post handicap review of the Turk and the Little Turk. The Turk gave out for the Arlington Handicap one name as live and long, none other than 12-1 Ghost Hunter and $2 win bettors were rewarded with $26. The 7 YO Ghostzapper has run very well on the AP fake dirt and won last time out over Deleware Park grass.
I was surprised that Kasaqui tracked and fired too late. I was not surprised that Oak Brook ran so well coming off the Black Tie Affair win. A ridiculous 20-1 Morning line that carried over to the Tote Board.
I had very limited betting today. I passed on the Suburban. As you'll see, with a scratch the field dropped to five and I was pretty sure Shaman Ghost would win. I wasn't/still isn't a Keen Ice backer, but he made one hard run and it was plenty today.
The Modesty and the Arlington Handicap was a mixed bag for me. Just focused on the slotting, the color shows I had the horses slotted appropriately in order of finish. I did pretty good on the Modesty with a Trifecta, Exacta and a $10 Win Bet on Dona Bruja (Arg).
In the Arlington Handicap as I said previously, I was eyeing Ghost Hunter as the long shot and had a $10 win bet on him. I gave back about half those winnings on some poorly constructed cards centered on Kasaqui and Manitoulin.
Finally at Belmont, I was turned off by a six horse Suburban and really turned off when Sunny Ridge scratched and left five.
Hindsight 20-20 I made a major betting error. If I would have simply boxed my trifecta selections from my base handicap, a $2 bet costing $12, would have returned $96. I left money on the table, but I was just turned off.
Finally, a few races from Belmont Park to pay attention to.
Race 10: The Belmont Derby Invitational. 3 YO 1 1/4 Miles Grass.
Today is my second favorite day of the year at arguably my favorite turf track in the United States, Arlington. What used to be called Million Preview Day is now called Road to the Million, and my primary focus is on two 1 3/16 routes over grass. By the way, Little Turk and I will be traveling to Arlington for the Million, our second straight year, and would love to meet any readers, you know yourselves, while we are there.
In the Modesty, Dona Bruja is a five year old Argentinian beast. 9 of 9 in the money over turf and a solid first start in the US in the G3 Mint Julep in early June.
Time and Motion is a Grade 1 winner as a three year old who hasn't quite found her groove as a four year old, with two starts and one Show finish. Trainer James Toner started a freshening over Belmont turf for past six weeks. 8 of 12 in the money over turf, the Tapit daughter looks to get going in advance of Million day. Hard not to like the gutty and game Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup effort from last October.
Darling Duchess cuts back from 1 1/2 miles today where she won last time out in late May. 2 wins in six starts at this distance. Speed is an issue.
Prado's Sweet Ride tracked along evenly in the AP Matt Spellman at 1 1/16 miles over yielding turf a month ago. As the chalk he finished in Show. The 5 YO goes for Trainer Chris Block, winless in past 12 stake races.
Storming Elle and One Liz round out my potential exotics. I tossed La Piba and Bonita Cat. Darling Duchess will be on the lead and should bring the speed. I would expect only Dona Bruja and Time and Motion to make serious late runs. The bet can be as simple as 1 and 3 Over the 1 and 3 Over some combination of horses, or maybe even the 1 Over 3 Over Field. I'll stew on it and you do too!
The Arlington Handicap is a very nice field of fairly even quality with a few class standouts. I could go into a major rant about why Arlington can't have more racing days like this, with more fields like this, but I'll sound like a broken record. Industry insider Ray Paulick has done a better job than I could possibly explaining the situation.
From a Paulick Report in May, "...The racing industry has been trying to get some type of legislative relief since 1991, when riverboat casinos were first approved. It's been stymied repeatedly, and the damage done to the breeding and racing industry is immense. Revenue to the tracks and purses for horse owners has cratered. Horsemen are getting out of the business or moving their stables and breeding stock to neighboring states, all of which offer more substantial purses. Illinois racing has become a shell of its former self.
Slots might have been the answer 10 or 20 years ago, when the competition came from 10 casinos scattered throughout Illinois, and several others were poised just across the Indiana state line adjacent to Chicago's South Side. One of those gambling parlors, the Rivers Casino in Des Plaines, is only 11 miles from Arlington Park in Chicago's northwest suburbs. Illinois casinos offer a full range of table games – blackjack, roulette, craps et al – to go with slot machines.
More recently, Illinois legislators moved to add electronic games to virtually every tavern and bar in the state. The 2009 law – approved by jailed former Gov. Rod Blagojevich – took several years to clear legal hurdles, but it is now in full effect, with tens of thousands of devices at bars, truck stops and fraternal organizations.
Slot machines are no longer unique (May 29, 2017)."
There is still hope regarding bill SB7, but Illinois is such a messed up state, I'm not sure if I'm prepared to have any faith or hope that Arlington can be saved, I love that track and its a horrible shame what has become of the Illinois racing scene.
Anyway, Illinois racing is not dead yet, at least for another day. Turk favorite, Kasaqui (Arg) looks to be in fine form winning the Wise Dan G2 at CD on June 17.
He has a tendency to take Place (10 in 26 starts) but I'm really impressed by this 7 YO. Perhaps a contrarian view, I like Manitoulin here. Comes in off career best 97 Beyer in a 1 1/8 Turf carrying 122 (He'll be 10 pounds lighter than Kasaqui at 114 today). Second time out as a gelding (poor fella). Sir Dudley Digges is a very classy Ramsey owned Gio Ponti Ontario bred trained by Michael Maker with Leparoux up. These two combine for 23% wins in past year on 196 mounts. Winner in N3x $80K OC last time out and will be closer to the pace than Kasaqui at the top of the stretch. In the one spot is Taghleeb, another Maker conditioned horse, a 6 YO Hard Spun bred by Shadwell. Oak Brook is an up down 5 YO gelded Giant's causeway son that has been claimed repeatedly and is currently in Brian Williamson's barn (8% graded stakes, 10% turf wins, 10% routes). 9 Win-Place results in 19 lifetime races. Took the Black Tie Affair at Arlington at 16-1 last month on yielding turf. Will be on the pace. Ghost Hunter is live and long. 6 Win-Place finishes in 9 turf starts. Trainer Jamie Ness stepping up big time in Class and Competition. Has had sucess over the fake dirt, winning G3 Hashin a 1 Mile here at AP in May. Won last start, 1 1/8 over firm turf at Delaware Park in mid June. Applicator I have rated lower than I expect he will be on the tote board at post time. I look at running lines: Weakened Late a 1 1/4 in G1 Manhattan, No Factor, No Factor, tired, Walked Off, Weakened, faltered. I may be too harsh here. Watch the Manhattan video. I don't see the horse that earned those running lines.
Applicator did not belong in the class for breeder/trainer Mikhail Yanakov but really ran well until being eased at 1/16 pole. Class drop, distance drop. I'll be watching him on the tote board. I'm not sure yet what I'll be doing in the Arlington Handicap. Whatever you do, do your own handicapping and bet responsibly. Turk out!
References
Paulick, Ray. May 29, 2017. "View from the 1/8th pole: Time is Running Out on Illinois Racing." Retrieved from https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/view-eighth-pole-time-running-illinois-racing/
