The Nomination Is In: March 3, 2012; The All Grade One Late Pick Three at Santa Anita on Big Cap Day

Hello friends, I'm writing this from the wind tunnel known as Western New York today. I can't remember in my lifetime such a mild winter, punctuated my oddities like multiple wind storms and snow lightning. It's felt like spring since, well, fall ended, and I'm not complaining. I will start with saying a quiet prayer for the people in the mid west who are dealing with just hellish tornadoes, the aftermath is what is rolling through my area now. I know what 70 miles per hour feels like, I can't even begin to imagine what it must be like to go to sleep and be awakened by nature's killer. Anyway, I know like many of you I turn towards the horses and the track as an escape from the ugliness and the pain of the outside world, but it's hard not to ignore such a tragedy tearing through horse country.

With the season turning towards spring very soon, horse racing season does pick up a notch for me. Older horses running at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter over dirt is my idea of ultimate racing. The Big Cap, The Santa Anita Handicap, is celebrating its 75th running. The race is a treasure of imagination to me: Seabiscuit winning in 1940, Shoemaker up on Round Table and Ack Ack, four straight legends with Affirmed in 79', Spectacular Bid in '80 and John Henry in '81 and '82 with more recent memories the back to back wins of Milwaukee Brew and Lava Man, as well as my favorite older horse Einstein in 2009.

Before we go to far let's look at the track record setting 1979 Affirmed in 1:58.6. How soon till that falls? I don't think today but the way the Arcadian speedway is playing, its only a matter of time.



I'd also be remiss in not mentioning, ah what the hell, showing 2001 Tiznow by special request.



I'm not sure yet how I'm going to play the races, horizontally or vertically, but I've built my base handicaps and they are a bit chalky in the first two legs.

Santa Anita Races 9-10-11



There's no chance of rain and the track should be fast. In Race 9, The Las Virgenes, I sure like Reneeesgotzip; training very sharply and enters fro Trainer Miller (18% last start winners) off a crushing win in Santa Ynez Grade 2. The only thing I don't like is Trainer Miller's Soul patch (just kidding!)



Eden's Moon comes in for Trainer Baffert looking very impressive. Training very sharply with :46 1/5th at 4 furlongs and 1:12 2/5ths at 5 furlongs, as well as an 11 length win in a MSW 56K in January. Stepping up, maybe ready to step out. I'll most likely sit on the sidelines on this race but I will look for value with Willa B Awesome who I'll want >6-1.

The Frank Kilroe Mile is Race 10 and it's hard not to like heavy chalk Mr. Commons, the 4 year old son of Artie Shiller who seems to have come into his own after returning to California following last year's Preakness. Two straight 1 Mile turf wins in the Grade 2 Sir Beaufort Stakes and The Arcadia. Trainer Shirreffs and Mike Smith winning 24%of races together at SA.

Jeranimo and Willyconker (Ire) will be close: Willyconker (Ire) came late in the Arcadia and should still be value as a 40K claimer in a Grade 1. I'm thinking top four for Trainer Doug O'Neill.

Jeranimo is 8 of 11 in the money over turf and 5 of 6 in the money over Santa Anita turf and at 6 YO, is the race's career earner at $840,000.

Jeranimo got the better of Mr. Commons in the Oak Tree Mile.



I'm curious about how Jimmy Simms runs and Compari will be in the mix. Jimmy Simms is firing bullets of 1:10 4/5ths and 1:11 3/5ths at 6 furlongs, good stuff, and Asmussen and Nakatani are clipping away at 23% together at SA. Compari dropped back in class and string two wins together, beating Willyconker in an 80K OC in January and is a Grade 2 winner.

In the Big Cap a field of 13 compete and there is an awful lot of quality in this race.

Trainer Mott ships into Santa Anita with Ron the Greek. Why is he here? To win obviously, or Mott would not have picked the spot. he's got the only classic distance win of this group and has gone a mile and a quaretr twice while the rest of the field combined has tried 5 times. I'm looking for value and I think he represents that at >6-1.

As a horse racing fan, I love Ultimate Eagle; Let's watch him crush the Strub field in early February.

Strub G2 1 1/8 Dirt SA



That was his first dirt win and he really throttled Jaycito and Prayers for Relief.

Setsuko and Norvsky have my attention; Dick Mandella in a bit of symmetry trains the gelded son of Pleasantly Perfect. He prepped in an N1X in February and then fired off a 1:12 even at 6 furlongs and a smokin' 1:23 4/5ths at 7 furlongs. He lost by a nose to Game On Dude in the fastest edition of the race last year in 15 years. Norvsky is looking for his first dirt win as a 6 YO, but he is full of class on turf and 13 of 15 in the money over grass. Trainer Warren wins 55% of his Graded Stakes on 11 tries and 20% of his Turf/Dirt Switches, although he's a 25 winner on Dirt and 6% at SA overall.

Uh Oh Bango will draw some attention. Here he is in the San Antonio

The San Antonio G2 1 1/8 Dirt SA



I'm more apt to try Holladay Road or Gladding; Holladay Road is a Cal State bred for Trainer Canani with Bejarano up. A nice 1:11 4/5ths 6f signals good form and Canani is 33% off the 31-60 day layoff. Sadler's Gladding has been freshened since the Ack Ack in November and while training well, Sadler is just 13% off 61-180 day break.

Have fun with this friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday February 7, 2009

The Turk enjoyed today's races, even if they were a bit chalky. As I show, mixing in some longer odd horses with the chalk can still produce a good Trifecta.

Race 8 at Aqueduct: The Whirlaway Stakes 100k, 1 1/16 on dirt for 3 YOs.



The Turk felt really good about Haynesfield today, and I also felt and wrote that I expected Mike from Queens to take show. I thought that Peace Town would take the place, and he was there to the top of the stretch before fading and giving way to Cellar Dweller, a horse I had a hunch could make some exotic tickets work today.

I don't think much was reveled today except there aren't many 3 YOs at this meet at the Big A of the quality to take on Haynesfield. His last four races have been won by a collective 19 1/2 lengths. How good is he?

Fair Grounds Race 9: The Risen Star Stakes, G3: 1 1/16 miles on Dirt for 3 YOs.



I'm still shocked that the bettors choice of chalks was Giant Oak. Yes, I liked this colt too, but Friesan Fire in my mind clearly has better current form, and I found it no surprise Larry Jones horse won again.

Post race analysis confirms my pre race opinion that Flying Pegasus was up to the challenge, but I had discounted Uno Mas. It seemed to me the horse had hit a wall and was as good as he would get. While not a great finish, I won't criticize a finish in the money too much. I guess I was most disappointed in Indygo Mountain. He really needs to show something soon, or he just isn't the colt I think he is.

Race 6 at Santa Anita: The Las Vigenes G1: 1 Mile on Pro Ride for 3 YO Fillies.



No great surprises here. Stardom Bound. Stardom Bound. Stardom Bound. My dearly departed Aunt Rosie would have loved this beautiful grey who showed speed and power today.

I was surprised to see Saucy Evening bet down as low as she was. She ran a gutty race, as did Haka. I discounted African Skies (GB) greatly, but she ran well and we'll look for her again.

Race 8 at Santa Anita: The Robert Lewis Stakes G2: 1 1/16 miles on Pro Ride for 3 YOs.



Break out the cigars. Pour the bourbon. The Turk hit himself a nice Trifecta in this race. I liked Papa Clem a lot, for no particular reason and he didn't disappoint. If you can insert a longer odds horse into the Tri with a chalk that will win, if gives you a good shot at payouts like this. I have to count, but I've hit maybe three of these since November. The money I've made just on those three wins easily balances the books on my misses. I have no illusions of beating the races, but I do like to prove that a $2 bettor can break even if he keeps his betting discipline. The tri paid $100.90.

Whew! It was a full day. Thanks to my horse racing friends who motivate me to do my homework and produce the best quality blog I'm capable of.

The Nominations Are In: February 7th, 2009

Spectacular, Spectacular. The Turk would love nothing better then to be at the track today, but which one? If forced to choose, I'd say Santa Anita. If I was picking for the most compelling race to me, it would be Fair Grounds.

The Turk has analyzed five races today: Race 8 at FG, The Risen Star G3, Race 8 at Aqu, The Whirlaway 100K, Race 6 at Santa Anita, The Las Virgenes G1, Race 8 at Santa Anita, The Robert B. Lewis G2 and finally Race 9 at Santa Anita, The Strub G2.

Fair Grounds Race 9: The Risen Star G3, 1 1/16 miles on Dirt for 3 YOs.


As usual, my analysis is not a betting strategy. I have constructed a matrix of my expected order of finish. As always, I believe strongly in watching the tote board and looking for value, even if that means betting my third favorite to win if his value is just wowza!

I think my two top horses, Fiesan Fire and Giant Oak are far from locks. My second tier of horses, especially Indygo Mountain and It Happened Here could surprise for a solid win payout. I'm intrigued by Flying Pegasus and Giant Oak, as I think their stock could really rise.

Aqueduct Race 8: The Whirlaway 100k: 1 1/16 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



Ho hum field. I expect Haynesfield will continue his dominating streak.

Santa Anita Race 6: The Las Virgenes G1: 1 Mile on Pro Ride for Fillies 3 YO.



Another race with a dominating Chalk. Stardom Bound, the beautiful gr/ro hasn't raced since the Breeder's Cup and has a new trainer with Frankel. Work steady.

I'm going to take a 2 buck flyer in the race in the hope that Stardom Bound isn't sharp. My best two candidates are Navigator and Saucey Evening. Like I said, I'd love to see this one live.

Santa Anita Race 8: The Robert B. Lewis: 1 1/16 miles on Pro Ride for 3 YOs.



Pioneerof the Nile finds himself all over Derby favorite lists, and rightfully so. He's a synthetic monster and will be a force in California, of that I am sure. Since the Cash Call, he has worked steady and with urgency in his gallop. 6f and 5f work is very, very good.

I Want Revenge gave Pioneerof the Nile everything he could handle in the CashCall. Papa Clem, and a possible live wire, Oil Man, may compete. As I said, I wish I was here today.

Santa Anita Race 9: The Strub G2: 1 1/8 on Pro Ride for 4 YOs.
I'm burned out at this point, so now charts. i'll be watching Gio Ponti, Nownownow, Cowboy Cal, and from the 13 post Slew's Tiznow. I'm taking Nownownow.