The Nomination Is In: The Grade 3 Pimlico Special on Black Eyed Susan Day

Page McKenney in Purple with Silver Diamonds

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk on Black Eyed Susan Day. I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for giving me the opportunity to handicap for you today's Pimlico Special, a Grade 3, 1 3/16 mile affair on the dirt for 3 Year Olds and Up.  To the left is Page McKenney, a local trained by Mary Eppler, a closer whose in the deep end of the pool class wise and will have to be at his very best to hit the ticket today.  We are gambling after all, so let's take a look at this field and see what we are working with.

Let's get it (our preak) on!  By the way, thanks to Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club, for use of the photo.

	Horse/Post	Turk's Grade
Win	Commissioner/10	A-
Place	Page McKenney/5	B-
Show	Transparent/2	A-
Exotic	Top Billing/8	B-
Also Ran's	Cat Burglar/9	B
	Vyjack/7	C++
	Encryption/3	C-
	Kid Cruz/6	D
	Tapiture/1	Scratched
	Albano/4	Scratched
	Pimlico Race 14: Post Time 6:21 ET	Pimlico Special G3
	1 3/16 Miles on Dirt	For 3 YOs and Up

It's hard not to like the Evil Empire's   Todd Pletcher's Commissioner.  His last four races back to the Belmont Stakes last year, he has sat right on the pace, within 2 lengths of the lead at first call, and you should expect that today.  Purely on class, the son of A.P. Indy seems to be the package, but don't get carried away by any hype.  He laid an egg in the Donn Handicap, was barely Show in an Optional Claimer one race and one month before that, and then he went unraced after the Belmont.  I think you'd be foolish to not cover him in the top spot, but let's hope that he cracks and one of the closers gets him, as there is money to be made in this race if that happens.

The closer bench got a bit shorter with the scratch of Tapiture, offset by the scratch of pace setter Albano. Still, closers like Page McKenney and Top Billing still provide a horse player some hope as both will go off >10-1 I reckon.

Page McKenney is my top upset pick.  Remember, most longer odds finish in Place, not Win, but let's suspend analytics for a moment and get caught up in how cool it would be for a local to win here.  The sport always needs a feel good story and the horse lover in my is a sucker for that stuff.  The cold horse player in me still likes what I see: deep closes in last three races, 23 of 34 in the money lifetime, 12 of 15 life time in the money on fast dirt and the local edge.

Returning to probabilities, Transparent and Cat Burglar loom as threats from a 4-1 to 6-1 range of value.   The Florida bred Transparent is a big fat tease in my book.  4 of 16 wins to starts, 4 of 13 wins to starts on fast dirt, some hideous Grade 1 starts, but some pretty sharp current form for McLaughlin's Godolphin 5 YO Bernadini son.  If he's not on the pace, he's most likely not winning, unless this dog learns new tricks late in his career.

Top Billing, son of Curlin, has an unaccomplished 6 race career so far.  His last race was a deep close and he trained sharply at 4f in :48 flat last time out over BEL.  Don't ignore.

Cat Burglar is criminally low in my handicap but you have to take positions and live with it.  Baffert is shipping in the 5 YO Unbridled son with 9 career starts, 8 of 9 in the money, 8 of 9 in the money on fast dirt, and a lack luster first effort of 2015, although Baffert is 24% on 29 tries in the 2nd effort off a long layoff.  He's put some nice bullets up lately, the most impressive :47 2/5ths in 4F at CD.

Vyjack is an on the pace runner who has cracked more than he's gamely rallied.  He won the G1 Kelso last year in September and not much since.  Handicapping is about current form, pace, class and little else and I don't see it here.

So what to make of this?

I could go easy and play some exacta's:  a 2-5-8-9-10 $2 Box is $40 bucks.  Great if someone other than Commissioner wins, not so great otherwise.

I may play a few Tri's:  Something like this: 5-10 OVER 2-5-8-9-10 OVER 2-5-8-9-10 a $2 bet for $48 or 5-8-10 OVER 2-5-8-9-10 OVER 2-5-8-9-10 a $2 bet for $72.

Have some fun with it friends, I think that this race, as long as it stays at 8 horses, should provide some value.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Pimlico Special Grade 3

Welcome friends to The Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner, I am The Turk, and along with my 14 year old son, The Little Turk, we handicap and blog as many stakes races as we can, offering our handicaps at their fair market value, and our betting advice for what it's worth as well.

The Little Turk has been to many a Grade 1 race in his young life, and the picture to the left was taken by him last year when we arrived on Black Eyed Susan day at Pimlico.  It was a cold and fairly miserable day last year and this year doesn't seem much better.  The weather will be atrocious tomorrow, and while it may stop raining by race time, the track should be listed as wet.

This should be a more prestigious race than it is. A distance increase and more purse money this year doesn't hurt, and the field, if not cream of the crop, is at least fairly well level.  The wet track should be a bit of an equalizer and the wild card.

My initial thoughts of the past performances:

• 5 horses with 400 plus Wet Tomlinson Numbers
• Zero wins at the distance (with Exception of Korean Major King)
• Zero Pimlico wins and only one start (Major King again)
• 9 horse field, one toss (Major King), 5 legitimate winners (2,3,5,6,8)
• betting options galore: 10 cent super, super hi five, Preakness/Pimlico Special Double and Pimlico Special/Dixie/Preakness Pick 3

Let's start off looking at some last race video with the key players.

Oaklawn Handicap Grade 2 Fast Dirt 1 1/8 Miles (Carve, Revolutionary, Prayers for Relief, Golden Lad)



Charlestown Classic Grade 2 Fast Dirt 1 1/8 Miles (Moreno)




Without a Will Take Charge or a Game On Dude, there are some good efforts on display in those videos.



I'm not sure what type of betting option I'm going to choose for this race. I haven't watched any Pimlico races this week, so I'll want to watch closely and see how the track is playing wet and note any particular lane biases, if any.

I like Revolutionary to have a better than 2-1 chance to win;  Pletcher's trainee ran hard at Will Take Charge after being cut off in traffic in the stretch last time out.  Training consistently and should handle the track and the distance just fine.  The class of the race.

In my base handicap he's much lower, but I'm leaning towards some value in the Place spot and I'm thinking Bourbon Courage from the outside will come late.  Hasn't won since 2012 but 10 Place and Shows in 17 starts for the 5 YO Lion Heart horse.  It's a reach but I like the value.  You could easily insert Prayers for Relief into this slot too if you are value hunting and are OK with risk for reward.

In my mind there is a blanket over Moreno, Cat Burglar and Carve.  I don't see much to differentiate them from each other.  Cat Burglar is the least accomplished here, coming in off of Optional Claimers 62K and 40K affairs.  Baffert is shipping him in for a reason and he places Napravnik up.  Baffert and Rosie win 53% of the time together over a 15 race sample size.  Moreno is almost always in it and has had some very good efforts over the past year. He'll be top 5 without question and I think top three.  Carve is a 4 YO gelded son of First Samurai, trained by Brian Cox who places Castanon up, with the two of them 41% winners together over 29 races.

I'm leaning towards Golden Lad and Valid dropping like stones after setting the pace and I'm shading against Prayers for Relief too but for no particular reason except you can't cover them all.

I'm not sure I feel that strongly about my handicap to bet serious money.  Something simple like a five horse superfecta box with the 6-9-3-2-5, ten cent variety, will cost you $12.  I  may be more daring tomorrow after I see how the track plays and what the scratches and changes are.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Pimlico Special-Preakness Double and The Black Eyed Susan

Nothing but flowers. Happy Black Eyed Susan day friends. With the manic work hours that I put in, these two weeks since Oaks Day have flown by, literally, as I've had many a frequent flier mile to focus on The Preakness. An eleven horse field, with the Derby Champ I'll Have Another not even expected to be the tote board leader at post time. I like the idea of singling the top spot in the Preakness to anchor my Super High Five and Superfecta exotics and then trying to pencil in the confusion that will occur within the next layer. This is what i think about when I need a few minutes of mental escape from work, a few minutes here and there, just enough to keep me sharp. To my readers who joined me during and around the Derby and are new racing, that is one of the benefits of the sport, constant and numerous mental challenges, number crunching with a human and equine angle. It's more rewarding than playing a slot machine, scratching a ticket, or Sudoku.

I love the multi-day bets like this weekend's Pimlico Special-Preakness as they really drive my interest in both days cards and a low priced wager that you can draw friends and coworkers into you with. My focused handicapping yesterday was on today's card and I'll highlight my thoughts on the Pimlico Special and the Black Eyed Susan, and then will have a preview of my thoughts on the Preakness so we can construct the double bet. We'll take a look at the weather for both days first and remember to keep your eye on the tote board and the scratches and changes.

Let's get after it!



It does not appear weather will be a consideration at all the weekend. For me, I like that. I prefer fast dirt and firm turf and no inclement weather as predicting an order of finish is hard enough, and anytime you can eliminate variables it just makes handicapping more precise. You find the scratches and changes as it gets closer to race time.

I can't say I'm a fan of any of the horses in the Pimlico Special. It's not that i dislike them, I guess I haven't been seduced by a dazzling performance. There are a few candidates though, and my Handicap Division loyalty is available to somebody this year, so hope does spring eternal. Hymn Book will be putting in his second effort off a long layoff, with Trainer McGaughey winning 20% of these. I do like that Hymn Book's 2nd time back off layoffs lat year all created Beyer jumps. What not to like is this six year old has never won on Fast Dirt (how is that possible?) but has won on a wet track 4 times and on turf 3 times.

Mission Impazzible is the career money winner here (how is that possible?) with over $1.3 MM on 3 wins, but is 12 of 17 in the money. There is only Grade 1 and 2 races on the past performances, a great sign that this horse performs at a high level every time out, and he's battle tested. :59 2/5ths bullet at Belmont in 5f signals sharpness. Lots to like.

Alternation is 3 of 3 in 2012 for Trainer Von Hemel and is 9 of 12 in the money on fast dirt. This 4 YO Distorted Humor son can really make a statement in the older horse division with a win here.

Seven year old Cherokee Artist is pretty sharp right now, with a career best 103 Beyer at 1 1/16 on PIM dirt in late April and a :59 flat 5F bullet last week.

I really liked Nehro last year coming out of the Arkansas Derby, giving Archarcharch all he could handle. Nehro powered a good Derby day for me last year as well and shutdown after the Belmont. A rather flat return in the Oaklawn Handicap, today could be a telling race for how his 4 YO campaign is waged.

Endorsement, the Sunland Derby winner, is a lightly raced 5 YO now, making 9th career start and making first start since winning the 1 Mile Grade 3 Texas Mile at Lonestar, making a nice late move. Harty places M. Garcia up.

I like value in the Double Bet so I may drop the chalk of the Pimlico Special and add Endorsement to drive up potential earnings, so to be clear I am considering dropping most either Mission Impazzible, Alternation or Hymn Book and supplementing with Endorsement, especially if Endorsement >6-1.

For the Preakness, I like Bodemeister quite a bit tomorrow. That said, I may drop him from the double bet, with the only other alternative being to single him and hope for the value to come from the Pimlico Special. I got options and no real reason to solidify my choices yet. Creative Cause, Went the Day Well and I'll Have Another are my win choices.

The Black Eyed Susan is a neat like collection of fillies. It's hard not to like Baffert's Mamma Kimbo. Undefeated with two wins including the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes at OP, 2 fast dirt wins, amazing work. Lots to like!

I have a feelin' about Plum: One win at Pimlico already, 4 wins in six starts on fast dirt, a serious class test for the Maryland bred. I may have her two high in my rankings but I'm covering in exotic spots.

Disposable Pleasure is a hard knockin' Giacomo daughter making fourth straight Grade 2 start. Castellano is up today, and won with this girl last October. Castellano and Pletcher rocking away at 29% win clip in 228 starts over past year.

In Lingerie is Pletcher's other runner, with Johnny Velazequez up. Bullet works getting sharp off layoff after winning Grade 3 on fake dirt in March. Glinda the Good and Welcome Guest round out the serious quality.

Have fun with today's races. The Turk's heart is heavy today as I just returned from a memorial mass for my dear Aunt Carmella who passed away this week. Selfless, caring for nothing other than her family and friends, with a genuine smile and a warmth you don't encounter very often in life. A very special light went out in the world. Rest in Peace Aunt Carm.