Post Race Analysis for Raceday 6 August 2011: The Grade 1 Test and Whitney as part of the Saratoga Late Pick 3

Suck or blow? When you work around large machines like I have my whole working career, this is the sort of discussion that starts theoretical: It takes less energy to draw a a material in the gaseous state through equipment with a slightly negative vacuum then it does to push the same gaseous solution through by blowing it under a slight positive pressure. After the discussion on mechanical and electro-hydraulic systems concludes the subject often turns crudely sexual, but that's a topic for a different blog. In horse racing, if you "blow" or "suck" I reckon it doesn't really matter as your tickets will be worthless regardless.

And speaking of losing tickets, what do you do with yours? When I just feel like people watching, I'll hang out at the track and after the results go final I take great pleasure in watching people celebrate as well as go into fits of despair. The poor tickets are either venerated to holy status or they are ripped, shredded, thrown, burned, etc etc etc. Me personally, I can't have negative vibe tickets on my person, they are thrown away immediately, which brings me to the story of the young Asian male at Churchill Downs sitting on the floor during Breeders' Cup Friday digging through a garbage can frantically looking at tickets amongst the filth, but that too is another story for another day.

The Turk is a big boy: I love talking about my wins, and I feel good enough about my decent skills as a handicapper to talk about the train wrecks. The Test was not a horrible handicap for me, I missed on Roman Treasure and it's hard to anticipate American Lady getting pulled up.

I plain sucked and/or blow'd with the Whitney Handicap. I knew it was a challenging field, but ugh, I didn't intentionally try to pick the finish in reverse order.

Anyhow, the carnage via spreadsheet is ugly:

Saratoga Race 9-10-11






So first of all, wow, Turbulant Descent. I may live in the Eastern United States, but I pay close attention to California racing and I knew this filly was special, bust she made a mockery of this field. Perhaps if Savvy Supreme, who was scratched, puts some pressure on Roman Treasure and Ramon and the pace was a bit hotter but....let's cut that loser talk off at the knees right now: The Test field was no match for Turbulent Descent.

My handicap was based on value and the hope that Turbulent Descent would not like the going. I knew no matter what she'd be top three and I backed a pretty fine filly, Pomeroys Pistol and I liked American Lady as well. I'm not as bullish on Her Smile, but her Prioress was honest.

Where do I start with the Whitney? Tizway was 1 of 8 with only 3 in the money finishes at the distance. He does have a tendency to run three race sequences and his first race back is generally a three digit Beyer. He was also training sharply at Saratoga since late June. The six year old now has 7 wins in 20 starts and is 13 of 20 in the money. Where will he point next? The Kelso like last year to prep for the Breeders' Cup Mile or is he main event? I'm thinking main event baby.

Flat Out was 1 of 3 at the distance before yesterday but had 4 wins of 9 starts over fast dirt. I disliked the post draw but I liked the bullets he's been churning out at Monmouth and the Suburban at 1 1/8 miles to pay $13.60 was artistic. The lightly raced five year old son of Flatter is now 6 of 10 lifetime in the money.

I've been a Giant Oak fan a long time but I thought he was no better than an exotic with this field; 2 wins in now 16 fast dirt starts and 2 wins in 10 tries at this distance and only 1 win, The Grade 1 Donn in last 11 tries. He's been training sharp and as expected he closed like a freight train.

Friend or Foe was a colt I was conflicted on pre race: A NY bred 4 YO who was winless in two tries at SAR, but 5 of 8 on fast dirt and he's beaten Rail Trip, Convocation, Ichabad Crane and Ibboyee to name some. He ran respectable in last year's Jim Dandy and Travers and he's had three straight 100+ Beyer's. Respect earned.

Headache I was high on. A morning line 20-1, I thought he had a very good chance to be top four. The 5 YO gelding ran well in the tight Prairie Medows turns and I thought he'd sneak up a bit higher. Trainer Maker has every reason to be proud of him and he didn't disappoint yesterday.

The text on the race charts is often terse but effective. Mission Impazzible "...no rally". I've never been that high on Mission Impazzible and I had him higher yesterday than the fan in me liked, but I'm a handicapper,not a fanboy, and that's why I'm in a foul mood over him. Pletcher's charge is just good enough to tease you.

Rail Trip "...lacked the necessary response". Yup. Trainer Dutrow doesn't seem to be doing too well with the six year old gelding whom I've been a big fan of since Santa Anita Derby Day 2009 and the Santana Mile.

Rodman and Prado fought quite a bit and it just wasn't his day. Apart is no Blame.

Duke of Mischief , ugh. "....but was through after completing three quarters". I took a chance he'd roll from the outside, it didn't happen.

Morning Line? The son of Tiznow was right there and then nothing.

Horse racing, love it!

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Saratoga Late Pick 3 including the Grade 1 Test and Whitney

The equine athletes are horse racing first and foremost to the Ol' Turk, but a close second is the people behind the horses. Can there be a brighter light in Saratoga racing over a longer period of time than the Whitney's? The irrepressible Marylou dances it up with a dashing Tony Randall at the crossroads where glamour and racing met, a yesteryear where rich Corinthian leather in your car meant something.

Anyhow, summer marches along and waits for no one. Saratoga comes and stays with us and before you know it, its gone, along with summer for another year. Saratoga has its own ebb and flow, races that set up races, that lead to championship races, that lead to Fall Belmont and then Breeders' Cup where the circle comes complete for the year. During the flow, stepping stone rocks appear, and today is The Whitney Invitational Handicap, a stepping stone for The Woodward, sure, but Breeders' Cup Classic is what these runners are focused on, with maybe one more stepping stone race before that day in early November. With real dirt back at Santa Anita trainers can point to The Goodwood or The Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont. Stepping stones start with a first stone, and there were many for this group: The Stephen Foster, The Suburban, The Salvator and Met Miles, The Cornhusker, this is a middle stone, some will jump to one more stone in September or October, and then Churchill Downs, trying to follow the path of last years winner, Blame.

This IS horse racing, the handicap division, as weak as it may seem to some, its deep in numbers if not full of elite champions.

Let's get it on!

Saratoga Race 9-10-11



Weather and Scratches and Changes are an issue, so pay attention to both as the day goes on.

I'm going to let the spreadsheets speak for themselves prerace and I'll spend more time than usual postrace breaking down the contenders, my pre race thoughts, and what unfolded. A bit backwards for sure but an exercise I like to do every month or so to help me spot things on the racechart that I see and then take that information and tie back to the past performances, when the animals are kind enough to run on dirt like the story unfolds on paper.

Have fun with a day like today and I'll be back later to mull the effort over.

I handicapped a big field in Race 11 to assemble a Pick Three bet. It's a 7 panel affair over dirt for 3 YOs and Up foaled in NYS which have never won a race other than yada yada yada. I like the 9-10-11 and I most likely will single one of them and keep my exposure low as today is more about handicapping homework than swinging for the fences. These fields are too deep and too talented for me to loosen the purse strings too much.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Gulfstream Park Park All Graded Stakes Pick Three and a Post Race Analysis of the San Vincente

The end of February marks the start of the heat up on the road to the Kentucky Derby and today someone will emerge from the Fountain of Youth as a favorite in the coming Florida Derby, a key battleground on the run to the roses.

The Turk turns his red gel pen today at the all graded stakes Pick Three which features a solid Grade II field of fillies in the Davona Dale, a field of mixed expectations in the Grade II sprint, The Hutcheson, and then the main event, the Grade II Fountain of Youth.

Thanks to Alex Feldstein for the kewl picture of the Gulfstream Park starting gate. Let's get it on!

Gulfstream Park Pick Three Races 8-10 with first post 4:14 ET



As always, check the weather, the scratches and changes, and the track condition prior to sitting down with your past performances. As I'm doing my handicapping a day or two before the actual race, the subtle differences in the field composition is what screws my pace expectations and base handicap up the most, but no crying, just planning, will lead you out of the valley of darkness.

Race 8 is a one mile one turn Grade II, the Davona Dale, for three year old fillies. I've attached some key race video from the Grade II Forward Gal for fillies from Holy Bull day in late January.



A Grade II for three year old fillies in January? Really? Many of the runners were in the first race of their cycle, not to take anything away from the winner, Pomeroys Pistol who opened up a 4 length lead before hanging in at the wire, but where was the response from the competition at the top of the stretch? Absent.

I'm backing one of those no response fillies, the bettor's chalk from the Forward Gal, Dancinginherdreams, with Leparoux up for trainer John Ward. a sharp :47 4/5ths work last week signals good form and I expecting the extra panel will be hers.

Oh Carole may be a bit of a stretch, and I placed her there without looking at the morning lines. I stopped just now and took a peek and the track 'capper had her at 4-1.

I guess I'll digress and suggest friends that what I did just did should be how you use morning lines: build your own running line (or assign letter grades like me) and then look at some other analysis like morning lines or internet hacks like The Turk (Note: You'll find some really good handicappers on the internet too, like my friends at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, but still, never let anyone influence your opinions or you will never get better.

Oh Carole comes in off a driving win in an N1X on Forward Gal day. Leparoux leaves for Dancinginherdreams but that doesn't mean this girl ain't good an Castellano/Kenneally combined for an overall 29% winners over past year.

I don't know what to make of R Heat Lightning: Making the 5th graded stakes start of her career (the rest of the field have six graded stake starts combined), the horse clearly has very good quality after winning the Grade I Spinaway and placing in the Grade I Frizette and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Also had no response in the Forward Gal, her first race off the layoff and has been training sharply with 4f in :47 and a Pletcher 26% win rate for the 2nd effort off 45-180 days, an a Pletcher/Velazquez team that wins at GP 25%of the time. Don't ignore.

I like Pomeroys Pistol to possibly find the exotic tickets as well as the journeywoman of the group, Evil Queen, making her 11th start.

Not to sound like a broken record, but a Grade II sprint race like race 9, The Hutcheson for Three Year old's in late February seems a bit pointless. That said, the field has 41 starts and has won 22 times, so we'll leave the discussion of what constitutes a graded stake to more intelligent types and handicap whomever shows up.

I like Madman Diaries as my chalk, the morning line 6-1 and fourth choice. A homebred for trainer Wesley Ward, training very sharply at 5f. Ward wins 31% of the time coming off 61-180 day layoff, and this horse has been off since the Breeders' Cup, my only negative. Ward wins 38% of his Turf/Dirt switches and 44% of his route to sprint switches and a gaudy 29% of his dirt races. Very impressive.

Travelin Man will be the bettor's chalk and comes in off a solid 106 BSF maiden breaker in early January. His work has been pedestrian and I'm not going to get all giddy yet but we will take hime seriously.

Crossbow is a Bernadini son from a Forest Wildcat mare. Dominguez gets the mount for trainer McLaughlin and looks to step forward after two solid previous races. Could step forward or step back, we'll see.

Flashpoint is another maiden only winner with high expectations. The Florida bred son of Pomeroy will look to run loose and I'm thinking he'll fade near the end but we'll see.

I like Razmataz and Manicero to possibly hit the exotic and I've soured on Black N Beauty since the Holy Bull but the distance drop may be the ticket. Leave of Absence needs to do something today.

In the Fountain of Youth I'm a fan of To Honor and Serve but I'm backing Gourmet Dinner today. This is a gut call for me, not the best handicapping methodology, but at least honest. Dominguez is up for trainer Standbridge. the Florida bred banged out a smoking 3f in :34 4/5 this week and a :47 3/5 the week before at 4f.

This is gambling, and while I'm gambling I'll throw Shackleford in there for place: a nice N1X win in early February and I expect him to rate off the pace and be there late.

To Honor and Serve is a heavy hitter, a $575,000 KEE sale sticker price on the trendy Bernadini son. A two time Grade II winner. Training well for Bill Mott, I just want to see what he has before getting misty eyed.

Soldat goes on fast dirt for the first time today. I'm a fan of War Front's and Danzig heirs but I'm being fickle and tossing the 103 BSF on the slop in mid January and dialing his BSF expectations back to low 90's. If you're going to be wrong, swing for the fences!

I'm planning a Pick Three that looks like this:



And finally, while still not 'capping real well right now, I nailed a no brainer pick three at Santa Anita last week, singling The Factor and making a good bet strategy with the two low level races that sandwiched The San Vincente. Consistency and pattern recognition is always more important than fancy betting angles.

Have fun, Turk Out!