Post Race Analysis for Race Day 12 November 2011; The Churchill Downs Late P3

Getting back to work after the Breeders' Cup as a handicapper, the easiest thing for me to do is to continue working a dirt and turf surface that I'm comfortable with. As long as the weather holds up I'll bet this track right through one of my favorite race days, the day after Thanksgiving and the Clark Handicap.

Today's Mrs. Revere G2 looked like a very strong collection of three year old fillies on paper and the race didn't disappoint. For those who pay attention, Marketing Mix has been on an ascent since late July and looks primed to be a real force next year.

Let's get after it!

Churchill Downs Race 8-9-10



The Pick Three was the planned cornerstone of my betting day but it turned out to be a bust after the first leg. Not much to say really, I was just off in Race 8 and 10. In race 8 I had the 12 horse, Afleeting Lady fifth on my board. In race 10 I tossed the four horse, Media Contact; 0 of 4 at CD, 0 of 5 at the distance but 6 of 7 in the money on fast dirt and I either missed that or discounted it.

In the Mrs. Revere my only regret was the betting public was all over this race and there were no contrarian positions to take. The Superfecta was 1-2-3-4 on the tote board. I do this regularly and that doesn't happen very often. I felt comfortable singling Marketing Mix in my Super and I bet a straight Exacta with Marketing Mix/Bizzy Caroline. It was a chalk fest but that didn't stop me from making some good money management decisions and turing a low risk positions of $80 into $520.

There is money to be made on every card at every track on every day of racing, it just won't always be as sexy as the Breeders' Cup.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: November 12, 2011; The Late Pick Three at Churchill Downs including The Mrs. Revere Grade 2

This picture sums up my 2010-2011 Breeders' Cup experience at Churchill Downs over the past two years; it blew by. It really is hard for me to believe that two of these events have come and gone and I'm loathe to compare the two years because that's not really fair with the solar eclipse of a mare, Zenyatta, creating such a huge buzz in the grandstands last year. On Friday the Turk Clan parked in the prepaid lot right next to Roy and Gretchen Jackson, the owners of Barbaro. I asked Mrs. Jackson if it was difficult for her to come back to Churchill Downs and she answered my awkward question kindly and said it was a place of great memories for her. Thank you Mrs. Jackson for being so forthright with me.

I had a decent two days of gambling, more or less break even. My biggest thrill was Amazombie winning the Breeders' Cup Sprint and my lowest low was being "that guy" loudly telling everyone that Court Vision should have been retired only to watch him win the Mile. I had my money on Turallure and I have a real soft spot for the Woodbine Mile and I should have bet the Woodbine Mile Exacta as that paid a sick about of mooola. Long Live Goldikova, she was a real special treat, and her connections were very sporting with the way she was campaigned, a real lesson to some of our American runners.

I swung for the fences with the Super Hi Five on the Breeders' Cup Classic. If I had won, you'd know about it by now. I had tossed Ruler on Ice but I had the other four. We'll revisit that bet more times in my life. I had Game On Dude to win and really thought I had a sleeper after I jumped off Flat Out. I don't know if there was any more Chantal could have milked out of him, but the way Drosselmeyer flew up the outside, I just don't think she saw him or there was no response. Either way, I enjoyed myself and i enjoyed the weekend for what it was: Multiple Grade 1 winning horses with long odds on very good animals in every race.

The Turk is never going to be confused as being gregarious in my social life. I fake it well in the business world but I'm a pretty reserved fella. I loved walking through the paddock, seeing the excitement, feeling the vibe of people digging horse racing (and vodka). I woke up early on Saturday morning and channeled some positive energy, driving to Mt. Washington before winding my way back to Churchill Downs to watch the horses from the fence line on Longfield Avenue graze and be happy.

The glamour of racing cards with multiple graded stakes one after another is just about over the calendar year. I like to handicap in November and December to sharpen up and look for 3 year olds who were lost in the shuffle and will be staying in training for 2012. I just don't give a hoot about 2 year olds and I never will- I'll get excited about them when the long Derby Trail begins again. I'll be handicapping Churchill until after the Clark and then I'll bounce over to Hollywood park, where I have had some really big December's in the past few years.

I've got a Pick Three at Churchill Downs that I've been noodling over which includes the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere. Let's get after it!



I really like Hungry Island's 2011 body of work but the Garden City, while looking like an off the board effort deserves a look;



She came out of traffic in a perfect striking position but it was Winter Memories day. I liked the rally. That said, I'm backing Marketing Mix to win.

Marketing Mix is a Medaglia d'Oro filly out of Instant Thought (Kris S.) The Ontario bred will have grass master Leparoux up for trainer Tom Proctor, who's a 20% turf winner. A solid 2011 Woodbine campaign, a win in an always competitive Wonder Where, a nice Pucker Up G3 at Arlington and a Place to Together in the QE2 Cup G1 at Keeneland. Training sharply and running well, a deadly combination.

Bizzy Caroline breaks from the two post for trainer McPeek with M. Cruz up. A dreadful Del Mar Oaks G1 was followed up by a Place in the G3 Valley View at Keeneland. A bullet on the poly track there last week. 5 of 8 in the money lifetime over turf, 2 wins in 2 starts on CD turf, the Afleet Alex daughter looks like a handful.

Smart Sting is a Smart Strike/Perfect Sting joint, trained by Roger Attfield. I was ecstatic to see Mr. Attfield win his first Breeders' Cup race (could that possibly be i thought, but yes it was) with Perfect Shirl in the Filly and Mare Turf. Wow! Johnny V is up. 5 of 6 in the money in 2011 with 2 turf wins, but winless at the distance and winless in one effort at Churchill. Comes off a 8.5 furlong fake dirt G3 win and a decent Virginia Oaks G3 effort two back.

Sea Level Drive is easy to overlook but I'm intrigued. An N1X winner on poly at Arlington, she ends up in Leigh Bently's barn, runs a well beaten Place to Marketing Mix in the Pucker Up G3 at 25.5-1 odds and follow that up as the 1.3-1 chalk in an N2X win at 8.5 furlongs on the fake stuff at KEE. This Malibu Moon should like the turf here and Trainer Arnold has her back but there is some baggage there: Arnold is a 3% winner on Fake Dirt to Turf crossovers and a 7% stakes race winner.

Hungry Island, Louakhova and New Normal round out my exotic covers. Louakhova has never finished off the board in 7 starts and won in her North American debut at 1 mile on yielding turf in October. I may be foolish not covering her in the P3 but you can't cover everyone friends!

The New Normal has been training well at Woodbine for Trainer Frostad. Friends, if you aren't paying attention to the good horsemanship north of the American border, pay more attention, especially to Woodbine. The Canadians love bringing good horses south in the Winter. A G3 winner as a two year old, she's been training well but this is first race off a long layoff, a break Frostad wins 15% of the time off of.

I'm going to assemble a Superfecta for the Mrs. Revere and I will most likely follow my alternative bet selection for the P3, perhaps stretching out to one more horse in the Mrs. Revere, Louakhova and downplaying Smart Sting. Hmmmmm. Things to think about minutes before the gate throws open. By doing your handicapping well in advance, I can focus on bet construction, allowing the tote board to help me make some value judgements.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 7, 2011; The 137th Kentucky Derby and an All Graded Stakes Pick 3

Our friend taking a nap off to the left is none other than Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion and the 2011 winner of the Timely Writer Stakes, Uncle Mo. I never blame the horse, but I do question in hindsight the humans that surround the horse. I also found myself shaking my head, but not surprised, with the USA Today this week, in particular an article written by Tom Pedulla. In the article published on Monday May 2nd it was represented that Uncle Mo had a "textbook" workout (Trainer Pletcher's words) and that he was good to go in the Derby, with owner Mike Repole stating that Uncle Mo looked like a different horse than the one that left Belmont Park two weeks earlier.

The Turk is not a trained journalist nor do I pretend to be, but I find it odd that this article was nothing more than a regurgitation of what Trainer Pletcher and Owner Repole had to say. It seems to me that Mr. Pedulla, the 2009 Maryland Jockey Club David F. Woods Award winner, should have got the opinions of a few other observers with perhaps a bit less bias, assuming he had the inches and newsprint available to him from his editors, and if he didn't, again, I am not attacking Mr. Pedulla whom I respect.

Mike Welsh, from his duties as the clocker writing updates for the Daily Racing Form described the workout as well, taking time to note how Stay Thirsty was able to hang well with his far more talented stablemate. It seems Mr. Welsh took the glass is half full approach and attributed Stay Thirsty's work as improving versus my opinion that Uncle Mo was not "textbook".

Mr. Welsh didn't so much contradict Trainer Pletcher's comments but did provide more color. I'm more disappointed that what passes for an article in a national newspaper in the biggest week of the horse racing season was nothing more than an opportunity for Trainer Pletcher to perpetuate the feeling that nothing was wrong with his charge. Just a few days later, another Daily Racing Form article showed a picture that showed Uncle Mo working with a very high action. It seemed apparent that this horse was not ready.

I'd love to understand what the plan was for Uncle Mo as a three year old. The way he was prepared you would think he was made out of glass. We are led to believe that one hundred and thirty seven years of lessons could be thrown away and you could baby your equine into being a classic distance winner.

When will owners and trainers understand that they have the biggest obligation of all to regrowing the sport back to prominence. If the horse is healthy, it must be campaigned. A trainer studies the conditions book and plots a course through the year, planning out the fitness cycle to peak at the time and place of a key race. Owners have an obligation to campaign their horses, travel them as needed, and grow the sport through fan interest. The owner and trainer have much more of an ability to improve the state of the sport than an organization like the NTRA. The horses will generate the buzz and people will come. I would have gotten on a plane to see Uncle Mo in a race at Gulfstream this winter, but not the Timely Writer. How huge would it have been for Uncle Mo to challenge the field at the Arkansas Derby instead of trying a softer spot at the Wood only to get his hay handed to him?

I just don't think all the rich folk at the top of the sport get their obligations. I also don't get why you'd place a horse with a trainer who is more of an managing director than he is a hands on horse flesh conditioner. If Uncle Mo was in a barn that had 15 horses, do you think the trainer would have pussyfooted around? Mr. Pletcher knows horses, of this I have no doubt at all, but with that many high profile horses a man can only spread himself so thin.

The Turk likes to handicap and he's a race fan first and foremost. I get upset when I sense I lack of leadership and I really don't like to read bullshit like I read in the USA Today this week. You prep the horse to shake him down and part of greatness is being sturdy enough to handle the stress and strain of the preparation. You can't just open the doors for a party without doing any planning, unless your party is a crackhouse I reckon. OK, enough rambling.

Churchill Downs Race 9-10-11, the Pick Three including the Grade II Churchill Downs, Grade I Turf Classic and Grade I Kentucky Derby



I was spittin' mad with myself when I went back to my marked up PP's for the Oaks to see I had Pretty Plum a 1st to 4th and an "A". I talked myself out of placing her as high in the final analysis. I would have never put St. John's River so high but the stretch was dead and speed came to die, perhaps an indication that the track wasn't exactly fast. In hindsight St. John's River had a great late kick.

I'll let my spreadsheet speak for itself right now. The horses in blue are my considerations for the pick three. I'll be playing the races vertically and horizontally as well and the card was excellent and has me really jazzed for the first time in awhile.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday March 12, 2011: The GP Pick Three, Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe

Just like I drew it up! Well, yes and no. The Turk and Turk Clan turned yesterday into a fun day of racing, with a rare break from Little Turk's soccer, we were able to build a fire and settle in for the return of Uncle Mo running as close to a televised workout as you can get. We had family over for dinner that ended just in time for the San Felipe and when it was over, The Turk had gained over $1,100 dollars in winnings with some pretty low risk wagers.

My target was a Pick Three built around a single for Mo, but sometimes things just unfold, not like you drew them up but the randomness can produce interesting, sometimes better, results. The Turk unapologetically believes in his betting principles, even when he is going through difficult weeks, as consistency I find is always the best way out of the dark valley. My handicapping allowed me to identify some value and my betting discipline allowed me to keep risks low and rewards darn good.

Let's go!



I thought the Timely Writer was a lousy bet and I wasted no money on it. That's a skill I didn't possess 15 years ago. I thought Rattlesnake Bridge was second best and he was second best alright. Uncle Mo was moving nice through the last 1/4 mile but I still don't know what the point of this race was and why he wasn't racing a month ago, but hey, what do I know!

The Pick Three fell apart with Joes Blazing Arson who I had dead last and the bettors had 6 out of 9. A simple superfecta matrix with the top two in spots Win and Place and the next three bet Place through Fourth kept the bet to $48 dollars but it didn't matter this race.

In the Gulfstream Handicap the exact same superfecta bet came in for $773.80. I discounted Rule a bit and the rest of them just sorta fell into place for me. That's three races now for Rule and the smart trainer should rethink his conditions book strategy. I liked Jackson Bend and will pay attention to his next race back, and Soaring Empire and Tackelberry continue to make a fan of me. Typical Duke of Mischief, close, on the ticket, no winner.

The best handicapping of the day was my identification of Watch Me Go, who I had as an A- and expected a Place or Show result. My eyes got big looking at the tote board and the $10 win bet at 43-1 paid very nice. Did you see the exacta payout of $194, Tri at $7,900 and Super at $19,000? Wow. Never in a million years would I have inserted Crimson Knight.

My second best handicapping and betting move was backing Premier Pegasus on the win bet. As the bettors 4th choice and 7-1 I thought it was a no brainer. Jaycito impressed me and i didn't think too much of Bench Points, my mistake.

It was a fun afternoon of horse racing and winning a few bets made me feel confident again. I'm looking forward to the Rebel next week. Have fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Gulfstream Park Park All Graded Stakes Pick Three and a Post Race Analysis of the San Vincente

The end of February marks the start of the heat up on the road to the Kentucky Derby and today someone will emerge from the Fountain of Youth as a favorite in the coming Florida Derby, a key battleground on the run to the roses.

The Turk turns his red gel pen today at the all graded stakes Pick Three which features a solid Grade II field of fillies in the Davona Dale, a field of mixed expectations in the Grade II sprint, The Hutcheson, and then the main event, the Grade II Fountain of Youth.

Thanks to Alex Feldstein for the kewl picture of the Gulfstream Park starting gate. Let's get it on!

Gulfstream Park Pick Three Races 8-10 with first post 4:14 ET



As always, check the weather, the scratches and changes, and the track condition prior to sitting down with your past performances. As I'm doing my handicapping a day or two before the actual race, the subtle differences in the field composition is what screws my pace expectations and base handicap up the most, but no crying, just planning, will lead you out of the valley of darkness.

Race 8 is a one mile one turn Grade II, the Davona Dale, for three year old fillies. I've attached some key race video from the Grade II Forward Gal for fillies from Holy Bull day in late January.



A Grade II for three year old fillies in January? Really? Many of the runners were in the first race of their cycle, not to take anything away from the winner, Pomeroys Pistol who opened up a 4 length lead before hanging in at the wire, but where was the response from the competition at the top of the stretch? Absent.

I'm backing one of those no response fillies, the bettor's chalk from the Forward Gal, Dancinginherdreams, with Leparoux up for trainer John Ward. a sharp :47 4/5ths work last week signals good form and I expecting the extra panel will be hers.

Oh Carole may be a bit of a stretch, and I placed her there without looking at the morning lines. I stopped just now and took a peek and the track 'capper had her at 4-1.

I guess I'll digress and suggest friends that what I did just did should be how you use morning lines: build your own running line (or assign letter grades like me) and then look at some other analysis like morning lines or internet hacks like The Turk (Note: You'll find some really good handicappers on the internet too, like my friends at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, but still, never let anyone influence your opinions or you will never get better.

Oh Carole comes in off a driving win in an N1X on Forward Gal day. Leparoux leaves for Dancinginherdreams but that doesn't mean this girl ain't good an Castellano/Kenneally combined for an overall 29% winners over past year.

I don't know what to make of R Heat Lightning: Making the 5th graded stakes start of her career (the rest of the field have six graded stake starts combined), the horse clearly has very good quality after winning the Grade I Spinaway and placing in the Grade I Frizette and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Also had no response in the Forward Gal, her first race off the layoff and has been training sharply with 4f in :47 and a Pletcher 26% win rate for the 2nd effort off 45-180 days, an a Pletcher/Velazquez team that wins at GP 25%of the time. Don't ignore.

I like Pomeroys Pistol to possibly find the exotic tickets as well as the journeywoman of the group, Evil Queen, making her 11th start.

Not to sound like a broken record, but a Grade II sprint race like race 9, The Hutcheson for Three Year old's in late February seems a bit pointless. That said, the field has 41 starts and has won 22 times, so we'll leave the discussion of what constitutes a graded stake to more intelligent types and handicap whomever shows up.

I like Madman Diaries as my chalk, the morning line 6-1 and fourth choice. A homebred for trainer Wesley Ward, training very sharply at 5f. Ward wins 31% of the time coming off 61-180 day layoff, and this horse has been off since the Breeders' Cup, my only negative. Ward wins 38% of his Turf/Dirt switches and 44% of his route to sprint switches and a gaudy 29% of his dirt races. Very impressive.

Travelin Man will be the bettor's chalk and comes in off a solid 106 BSF maiden breaker in early January. His work has been pedestrian and I'm not going to get all giddy yet but we will take hime seriously.

Crossbow is a Bernadini son from a Forest Wildcat mare. Dominguez gets the mount for trainer McLaughlin and looks to step forward after two solid previous races. Could step forward or step back, we'll see.

Flashpoint is another maiden only winner with high expectations. The Florida bred son of Pomeroy will look to run loose and I'm thinking he'll fade near the end but we'll see.

I like Razmataz and Manicero to possibly hit the exotic and I've soured on Black N Beauty since the Holy Bull but the distance drop may be the ticket. Leave of Absence needs to do something today.

In the Fountain of Youth I'm a fan of To Honor and Serve but I'm backing Gourmet Dinner today. This is a gut call for me, not the best handicapping methodology, but at least honest. Dominguez is up for trainer Standbridge. the Florida bred banged out a smoking 3f in :34 4/5 this week and a :47 3/5 the week before at 4f.

This is gambling, and while I'm gambling I'll throw Shackleford in there for place: a nice N1X win in early February and I expect him to rate off the pace and be there late.

To Honor and Serve is a heavy hitter, a $575,000 KEE sale sticker price on the trendy Bernadini son. A two time Grade II winner. Training well for Bill Mott, I just want to see what he has before getting misty eyed.

Soldat goes on fast dirt for the first time today. I'm a fan of War Front's and Danzig heirs but I'm being fickle and tossing the 103 BSF on the slop in mid January and dialing his BSF expectations back to low 90's. If you're going to be wrong, swing for the fences!

I'm planning a Pick Three that looks like this:



And finally, while still not 'capping real well right now, I nailed a no brainer pick three at Santa Anita last week, singling The Factor and making a good bet strategy with the two low level races that sandwiched The San Vincente. Consistency and pattern recognition is always more important than fancy betting angles.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nominations Is In: January 22, 2011; The Fairgrounds Pick Three on Lecomte Day

The handsome winner of the Lecomte last year was Ron The Greek, who won from a field of ten that ultimately yielded no significant 3 YOs. The Turk and his sidekick, The Little Turk, are watching as many of the 3 YO preps as we can and if you have a chance, take a look at the 1st edition of the 2011 Derby Dozen Poll voted on by some really savvy people...and me.

Today we are greeted with the malady affecting tracks all over the United States, a small field in a stakes race. We won't let it bother us too much and just like a party, we won't worry about who isn't here, we'll just focus on who is here. It's important friends to know that you have no obligation to actually bet. You can handicap the races, watch the races, and not have "action plays". That said, we have a three stakes race sequence here that has a feel of wide openness and I'm going to take a run at it with a low risk Pick Three.

Let's get after it!

Fairgrounds Race Track: Race 8-9-10; First Post 4:42 ET



Fairgrounds isn't a track Turk plays often, nor is it one I've ever done well at. That's not a coincidence; It takes time to study the race charts, read the writings of the handicappers who do know the track best, study who the local big fish are, and there is only so much time in a day to recreational handicappers, so my strong advice is always to stick to just a handful of tracks and learn them well.

I'm ignoring my own advice, which I don't do here very often, because I had a hankering to play this sequence more than what else was available today. I'll go in armed with humility and slightly defensive and I'll save the bigger betting action for my base tracks: Gulfstream this time of year and more recently the new dirt surface of Santa Anita. Do you have a favorite track? There is no purer pleasure then to walk into your cathedral of choice and watch graded stakes action. About this time of year when it's 5 degrees F outside I start thinking about the lush green of the turf track at Arlington, the cheering crowd at Race 1 on opening day at Saratoga, or the buzz at the 1/16 pole when mighty Zenyatta was chasing down Blame at Churchill Downs. It's these moments when I realize how much I love horse racing and the people involved. A sport that's become irrelevant to most Americans being contested at the highest level by true sportsmen and women. I think I digressed!

Before I get back on target, I'd be remiss to not say how my heart broke at the news of Miesque passing away. Horses like Miesque make me feel my own time on earth passing away, as it seems like yesterday to me watching her Breeders' Cup Mile wins in 1987 and 1988.

The main track yesterday was listed as fast and the turf track was listed as yielding. Looking at the weather it should be dry but not sure how dry the track will get so pay closer attention as the time draws near.

In Race 8, The Silverbulletday, an eight horse field of 3 YO fillies compete at 1 mile and 40 yards on the dirt. The pace scenario is hard to gage, but I expect Seans Silverdancer will strike the lead early and three good off the pace closers will set up, Chloe Kate, Bouquet Booth and Aide. Of those three, I like Bouquet Booth the best: A Grade III winner, 4 of 4 lifetime in the money and training sharply at FG since racing last in late November. The barn wins 225 of races off this length layoff and the Margolis/Bridgmohan combination wins 45% of the time together at FG. This isn't a slam dunk, maybe not even in the to three, but he represents a legitimate winner who won't be the chalk. The likely chalk is Aide, with very lofty connections and one of my favorite sires, Arch. Clearly talented, with a nearly 20 length victory one race back, and with Gomez up for Albert Stall, this filly will attract alot of betting action. Clearly we are hoping she'll lose this one to enhance the pick three payout.

Daisy Devine won the last time out to pay $80.20. The lightly raced daughter of Kafwain can't be expected to win again at those type of odds, and I think we'll see her hit the ticket. Little Miss Holly has improving Beyers and has been competitive and don't discount on the exotics Ambient who ran strongly on a tiring yielding turf at one mile last time out.

In Race 9, a 1 1/16 mile affair on the turf for older runners, Gran Estreno (ARG) has a good chance to be the chalk at post time and I think he's rather deserving; The 8 YO has strong Beyers, a nice late race turn of foot, and solid FG connections with Trainer Stidham clipping along at 29% and Stidham/Napravnik winning 29% of 28 starts together here. 10 wins in last 21 tries for Argentinian bred.

Bill Mott's Midnight Mischief with Theriot up, comes in after faltering as the tepid chalk in a grade III in December. The 5 YO Medaglia d'Oro horse is 3 of his last 11 and has only one win on turf in six tries with a puny Tomlinson rating.

Strike Again, a Smart Strike on the Dam's side and a son of Dixie Union, is 5 of 15 overall, 5 of 14 on the turf and 4 of 5 in the money at the distance. His worst efforts have been on turf less than firm.

Red Strike is a four yeas old gelding from Smart Strike, lightly raced and starting for only the 4th time. Throw the sloppy off the turf last race out and I think you may be looking at the best chance of real value in the Pick Three and any inner race betting.

And finally in The Lecomte I think there are three legitimate chances to win and the uncertainty will hopefully make a decent betting race of this paltry field. Most likely the least of the three to be loved by the bettors is Action Ready. The son of More Than Ready makes a turf to dirt switch, something Bret Calhoun pulls off a staggering 30% of the time with 83 tries. Most of Calhoun's stats are off the hook and he's approaching supertrainer status on Dirt with 26% and now just needs to improve his 16% graded stakes wins. I think he's improving and he's fresh into his race cycle with today being his third effort since December 1st. Lots of bettors will gravitate to Justin Phillips. The erratic last race winner adds blinkers, which Asmussen wins 26% of the time. I took Calhoun to task for his Graded Stakes win percentage and was surprised to see this barn down to 12%. Pants on Fire comes in of two nice efforts, discount if you wish for where they were. I'm discounting at my own peril.

And last Monday's Martin Luther King Day efforts served the purpose and they are deconstructed below.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 8, 2011; Gulfstream Park Pick Three including the Hal's Hope Grade III

The holidays are over, and when you live in Buffalo, all you have left to look forward to is two solid months of miserable cold weather and snow and short, dark days. It's not hard to turn your eyes south and focus on the fact that the horse racing season has begun. The Hal's Hope and the Spectacular Bid are a good way to reengage with Gulfstream Park, where many of the best horses in America have been wintering and planning their campaigns. Let's get it on!

Gulfstream Park Pick Three Race 7-8-9



This is a challenging three race sequence. I'm OK with handicapping any race, but the other side of the coin is actually betting, and when I got done handicapping these Past Performances I was left with the feeling that I was either dead on or wildly whacked. The Turk is a big advocate of responsible betting. That wasn't a moral message about controlling your vices, as the Turk also doesn't judge anyone. What I mean by responsible betting is long ago I gave up the notion I had to bet every race I watched or handicapped. I pick and choose my marks, and I watched my personal ROI skyrocket as I got over the inclination of reflex betting. I still lay duds from time to time, but its fewer and farther in between because I'm perfectly OK with holding back the bet, handicapping, and then critiquing my handicap after the fact to try and analyze why I was so risk averse. Funny things happen when you do this: Sometimes you win and leave good money on the table, and sometimes you lose. Either way, learn something from every handicap, and of course, have fun!

Race 7, the Spectacular Bid, was won last year by a Turk favorite, A Little Warm. We again express our remorse over the loss of A Little Warm's owner, Edward Evans. Nine horses are entered and I struggled with naming a chalk. As a bit of a stretch, and an eye towards value, I placed Grande Shores on top. The son of Black Mambo comes off the pace well, and there will be a hot pace with Wildcat Formation and Duel Exhauzt, and I think he's improving and may catch a few of the assuredly better colts off their games today. To not like is the 0% win Jock/Trainer combo in 25 races at GP.

Leave of Absence runs back after a a 94 BSF at the Big A in November. Training sharply, the Harlan's Holiday son is trained by Richard Violette.

Gangsterontherun is my expected winner, also making his third start like Leave of Absence. Solis is up for Trainer Wesley Ward and the horse has been training very sharply at GP since Thanksgiving and put up two :47 3/5 4f efforts recently.

A tough race indeed and if I wanted to over cover I'd throw in Duel Exhauzt and a Desormeaux mount, War for Gus.

Race 8 is a stocked 1 mile turf N3X Optional Claimer. I think that Guy's Reward and Sleepless Knight are the best of the field. Kelly Breen trained Sleepless Knight is coming off a long layoff, something he only wins 11% of the time, but has won 3 of 6 turf races and 5 of 6 in the money.

Guy's Reward won on yielding turf last time out at CD in late November. The 4YO son of Grand Reward has Desourmeaux up again and Desormeaux and Trainer Romans win together 30% of the time. Expect a nice late turn of foot.

I like the Roger Attfield runner Jimmy Simms to challenge based on the 6 YOs consistently purposeful running. Asphalt is a 4 YO War Chant son who is 9 of 12 in the money on turf. Trainer Eddie Kenneally wins 21% on turf and Leparoux/Keeneally win 20% of the time together in a many start relationship. Dark Cove and Oil Man (IRE) loom as possibles as well. If Dark Cove runs he may need a new jock as Leparoux is assigned to him as well.

And in Race 9, the Hal's Hope, one monster looms, one challenger is possible, and one deja vu horse reemerges. The monster seems to be Morning Line. Nick Zito's runner has two straight 100+ BSF including a very gutty Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, losing by a head to Dakota Phone. 6 of 7 lifetime in the money for the 4 YO son of Tiznow.

Soaring Empire (pictured above) also has two straight 100+ BSF efforts including a deceptive 6th in the Cigar Mile Grade I. Trainer Cam Gambolati is winless in four graded stakes efforts and only started 78 runners in 2010.

Rule returns is the deja vu moment, as last winter he seemed on the verge of a breakout only to be shutdown after failing in the Florida Derby as the chalk. Trainer Pletcher wins 23% of his greater than 180 day layoffs but this seems daunting. Takleberry will gamely provide pace.

I've put together two variations of a $36-$30 dollar pick three bet that is defensive and maybe meek. I may have to rethink as scratches and changes flow in.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: December 26, 2010 Santa Anita Pick 3

Merry Christmas to my friends, family and readers of the Turk and the Little Turk.

To me, the day after Christmas and the opening of the Santa Anita winter meet always signals the start of the new season. I hope everyone had a relaxing few days. I've enjoyed a handicappers holiday, decompressing and getting ready to hit the ground running hard with Derby fever that will set in soon.

We've had an addition to the crack staff of handicappers at the Turk, so please, meet the newest Turk to the team, we'll call him HandHeld Turk. He's a derivative of a model developed by Mattel. I'm just now doing some research on Handheld Turk but I have found some interesting threads on the internet and I have anecdotally from my Aunt, whose father, a genuine old school horseplayer, swore by this machine. I'd like to think he's looking down from heaven and glad that its found its way into the Turk clan. When I get a bit more comfortable with inputting information into Handheld Turk I'll give him a forum for making his selections. Yes, Handheld Turk is greater than 21 years old and is eligible for the fringe benefits offered here at Turk Central, namely unlimited bourbon and cigars. OK, let's get after it!

Santa Anita Race 6-7-8 Pick Three; Post Time 5:30 ET


There's been much written about the switch back to dirt at Santa Anita. I had begun to accept that the fake stuff was here to stay and I'm still a bit shocked at how suddenly the surface was replaced, especially after two successful Breeders' Cup events. I reckon the lost days when it rained is what ultimately did it in, but the switch back to dirt was welcomed by me and it sure does make the winter meet seem relevant again as a place to prep for the Triple Crown races. Today though, we are faced with a new surface and days of bad weather that have taken a toll. It makes sense as a handicapper to watch the races, study the race charts, but limit the amount you are willing to invest with unknown and unpredictable variables at work.

I've built a Pick Three bet around two Grade I sprints and a Grade II turf route. I'm hopeful that the surface will be race worthy, but we'll see. There are some really nice horses lined up for Boxing Day racing and that is ultimately what I always care about the most.

I'll let the handicap speak for itself right now. I'm going with a chalky group of runners in the $24 variety of my prospective bets. I will watch for scratches and changes right up to post time of Race 6 and then roll the dice. I'll be watching the races on my new set-up: My Mac Mini is now connected to the TV via an HDMI cable and I'm streaming HRTV. I'm pretty excited that horse racing friends are coming over today and we'll be able to enjoy the races and good food, courtesy of Mrs. Turk, in comfort.

Enjoy friends, have fun, Turk out!

The Nomination is In: November 26, 2010; The Churchill Downs Late Pick Three including the 136th edition of the Clark Handicap

Poor Meriweather Lewis Clark. He did so much for our sport yet died by his own hand at age 53. I remember Mr. Clark every year as the race named in his honor shouts THANKSGIVING to me as much as turkey, stuffing, gravy. It's been a wet and cold few days at Churchill Downs, located on property donated and named for Meriweather's mothers family, the Churchill's, mother Abigail and his cousins John and Henry Churchill. The weather and the track conditions may dictate the outcome of the Late pick Three so you have to decide for yourself if the unknowns are worth dealing with. I'm going to keep my risk/reward threshold reasonable and take a swing for the fences. Let's get after it!

Churchill Downs Race 10-11-12 Late Pick Three first post 5:12 ET



Yesterday at the Downs the turf races moved to the slop. Check the scratches/changes, weather and track condition before doing much with these races. In Race 10 the obvious issue will be if it goes to the main track and who gets scratched. Film Charm will join the crowd if it goes to the main track and he should be a player. I like the James Tafel/Carl Nafgzer combo with Sweetest Song on turf or slop. The four year old gray has had very definable third race bumps in improvement in her cycle and today's the 3rd race in her current cycle. A win at the distance and a big Tomlinson Wet Track rating. Redreamit, with Gomez up for Trainer McPeek has an even bigger wet track Tomlinson and races for the second time after being freshened. I like the way Persuading is working for Trainer Romans, with a :46 and 2/5ths bullet in early November.

In the Clark Handicap, I'm backing Duke of Mischief tepidly. I really like his efforts at 1 1/8 miles early this year and I think he'll be flying at the end. My exacta combo is two horses I haven't backed often and I'm still not sure I didn't get enough sleep or coffee before typing this. Redding Colliery is six of six in the money in 2010 and has a >100 BSF in 5 of past six races. The 4YO may be making a statement for 2011 today. Completing a trifecta of horses I never though much of, Win Willy is a great slop track runner and has won four of last 11 and 8 of last 11 are in the money. Dubious Miss intrigues me and I had the six year old gelding on top on some of my tickets; A solid CD runner and winner, a solid wet track runner, I'm watching the tote board with this one.

It's a nice field with Regal Ransom and Redding Colliery proving some serious pace. Successful Dan is rolling of late with two straight >100 BSF wins by a combined 10 lengths. Giant Oak doesn't win much but isn't bashful about minor awards. Brass Hat is, well, Brass Hat. Not alot of handicapping required. This feels more like a goodbye dance than a legitimate shot, now go prove me wrong grey beard! Demarcation and Apart ran solid Ack Ack Handicaps and they could finish anywhere here.

Again, especially if the track is a mess, have fun but keep the risk reasonable.

My last week's Late Pick 4 at Aqueduct was so-so. I did hit pretty good with Spa City Fever but not enough to be competitive.



Happy Thanksgiving Friends. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 19, 2010; The Woodbine Mile and Late Pick Three including the Northern Dancer

The Turk has been a big fan of the Woodbine Mile since its inception. The race, run over the The outermost E. P. Taylor turf course is 1 1/2 miles long with a chute allowing races of 1 1/8 miles to be run around one turn. The Taylor turf course and the main dirt course at Belmont are the only mile-and-a-half layouts in North American thoroughbred racing. You need to have a basic understanding of the courses as in many locations a second turn would have been required and that changes the dynamics. In this internet thingy day and age this information is a search browser trip away. Woodbine is the Turk's second favorite turf course in North America, and just like my favorite, Arlington, it's saddled with fake dirt for the main track, a turn off that I struggle to get by. No matter, today is one of the great days at Woodbine, and the Mile and The Northern Dancer, both Grade I's, are premier events. The fields are strong and the handicapping was really difficult, so let's just throw it out on the table and see what we got!

Woodbine Race Track Races 8-9-10; The Late Pick Three with the Grade I Northern Dancer and the Grade I Woodbine Mile, post time of Race 8 is 4:34 ET.


As always, check for scratches/changes, weather (and go back a few days for turf events) and monitor the tote board as the day goes on.

The Pick Three kicks off at 4:34 ET with the Northern Dancer. Marshside was entered all over the place this summer before finally shipping into Woodbine to take the Grade II Sky Classic. It was masterful work inside the conditions book by Trainer Drysdale. I like him here as well but he won't be without strong challengers and this is a good race to look for value. I'll be taking my base handicap and looking at the tote board before post. If I'm backing a horse second or third who is the third-fifth favorite with the bettors and the horse is > 6-1, I'm looking for a win bet to be defensive with. I like Memorial Maniac, a five time loser at this distance to be a real value play. Spice Route is very strong and I can never tell what to make of Expansion, with a wild card being Redwood (GB) who seems to run better RH than LH.

I'm going to keep the risk low on the Pick Three. I'll most likely single or provide just a second cover with value in the Northern Dancer.

The Allowance Race contains an interesting collection of even horses and I'll cover as many as four here, Thunderball, Lady's First Cat, Perfect Loch, and a value pick in his second career start, Summanus, son of Thunder Gulch who will have to shock while adding more distance. There will be some safe value mixed in as well with Casual Dude, Smart Sky, Shellback and Spirit Flying all very capable. Gambling ain't always going to be easy and often you will be perplexed: Build your handicap and live with it, the post race analysis is the tool you use to make adjustments in future base handicaps.

For the main event, the picture for this handicapper is no cleaner. I'm backing Famous Name for no reason other than I had to many nicks against the other runners and perhaps my lack of knowledge with him gave him an unfair advantage. It's quite possible. I think the Usual Q.T. is a nifty horse for Trainer Cassidy, winning 8 of 16 career starts including some of the biggest California turf events and he's 5 of 5 at the distance. No rational reason to downgrade him except I'm not sure he'll love the course and that's what I'm banking on. That said, Grand Adventure and Smokey Fire will fire well on this course and Victor's Cry seems fresh and primed. Trainer Goldberg, a 26% winner, brings in Straight Story with Maragh up, and is more than capable of hitting the board.

As a handicapper, I like to be tested with big, competitive fields. As a gambler, I prefer to pick softer targets, and as a blogger I'm just going to do my best with the marks that I'm interested in. Have fun with it. I'll be betting safely within the races, hunting for value, while I'll most likely keep the pick three to $2 2 picks X 4 picks X 2 Picks $32. I'd actually like to go a bit lower.

Have Fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: September 10, 2010; The Presque Isle Downs Mile and the Pick Three

The Turk caters to a certain reader; a review of my analytics paints me a picture of some heavy hitting hard core gamblers that are reading my blog at this very moment. Those hard core whales are looking for some action on a Friday afternoon, and this weekend, I'm all about Presque Isle Downs. Presque. You don't have to pronounce it to play it, so lets give it a twirl. In all seriousness, for a Race Casino, it's a nice place, an easy location for the Turk to get to, and there are all kinds of things around it like huge outlet malls and water splash parks for those of you that like that stuff. The beer is cold, the tapeta crap plays pretty fair, and you'll likely to see a Sheppard/Strawberry/Augustin Stable runner there pretty often. They have positioned their big weekend on the first weekend after Saratoga ends. Not bad, well played. Let's Go!

Presque Isle Downs Race 5-6-7 including the $250,000 Presque Isle Mile



Some interesting fields will make these races challenging, but challenging is what I'm all about at the end of a long day! In Race 7, The Presque Isle Mile, I stewed on these runners for sometime trying to logically write them down in a predictive order of finish. I settled on Gayego to win, a tepid chalk for me indeed. 8 of 11 lifetime in the money on the fake stuff and familiar with tapeta from the tracks he ran on in Dubai, Alan Garcia ships in to ride for Godolphin. he's stretching back out to a mile after settling into the 6-7 furlong distances but he's capable.

Stunning Stag takes the QEW down from Woodbine for Sid Attard. Pulling back in distance, he's training very well and has looked sharp since May. Easily capable of winning, watch the odds, 6-1 in the morning line, I think he sinks to 7-2 by post time.

Who knows what Mambo Meister will bring? Trainer Gleaves only wins 12% of the time stretching out from sprints to routes and wins only 13% of his routes and 14% of his races overall. This is his 31st start and only second fake dirt try. I'm discounting him a few spots on many cards and I should show some conviction and drop him further but the horse is 19 of 30 in the money lifetime and has the class. I'm dropping him a few slots on most cards.

The second tier is a very nice collection of horses and many of them could easily beat Mambo Meister into that top three. Successful Dan ships in for Grade I winning Trainer Charles Lopresti and he gets Eclipse Award winning J. Leparoux up. He's been training sharply at Keeneland on the fake stuff and ran last out at Arlington in early August on that fake stuff.

Allie's Event won an N2Y with a 92 BSF at 1 mile here at PID in mid August. A 4f :47 last week lets us know he's still sharp. He represents serious value if he reaches the gate >7-1.

Last year's champ, Cherokee Artist returns as a 5 YO. More than capable still. Rocking Rockstar has won 4 starts in 8 tries on fake dirt and his last two synthetic efforts were, rockin. I Know Why, a 4 YO sin of Why Why Why tries fake stuff for the first time but has won three times this year and could break the top four.

I'm going to single the middle race and keep the bet risk relatively low for the pick three at $18. I'll bet the mile with Super's and Tri's with variations of my base handicap including some variations where I will drop Mambo Meister out of top four and Gayego to Show and fourth.

The Turk is all for Chip getting Mine That Bird back for his 5 YO season. I don't know what the Bird has left but it seems to me that he's been placed in positions all year of unrealistic expectations. I had a blast on Woodward Day at the Spa with Sister Turk and I'm glad I got to see the gelding run.



Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 14, 2010; The Saratoga Late Pick Three with the Grade I Sword Dancer

That handsome fella to the left is Sword Dancer (1956-1984) with his Trainer J. Elliot Burch. Fifty years ago the buzz that I feel now when I go to Saratoga to see the Woodward Stakes, with recent memories being the rock star buzz of Curlin two years ago, Rachel Alexandra last year, Quality Road and possibly I Want Revenge this year, but fifty years ago it was Sword Dancer, winner of the 1959 Travers and Woodward, Belmont Stakes, Jockey Gold Cup, and then returning to win the Suburban and the Woodward as a four year old. There are bloggers who do a wonderful job with remembering these historical runners, and I'm not one of them, but I do find it rewarding as a fan to take the time to learn about these horses from yesteryear and why fifty years later its still important to remember them. Let's get after it!

Saratoga Race 9 - 10 - 11 The Late Pick Three



I had modest goals when it came to yesterday's vertical Pick Three Bet and horizontal Race 10 Superfecta bet: Don't overbet and keep the bet on budget. I had a pre race budget of $50 for the sequence and I ended up spending $28 and winning $68. I did it by doing what I said I'd do and I stuck to my plan.

The Pick Three was my main target. I ended up way under budget on my Pick Three bet and I lost, but why I lost requires a bit of discussion. The races I thought I'd lose, the bookends of Race 9 and 11, NYS restricted turf affairs I won with three selections in each as my cover. Race 10, the Sword Dancer, I singled, as I believed the chalk Expansion would win. My second choice and last toss was Telling. To include Telling would have increased the bet by 50% to $36 dollars. That $36 would have returned over $220 dollars, so the risk/reward was where it needs to be, but I was being disciplined and not over covering, and I left this one on the table. It will happen, and you can't let it influence you or the following week you'll have choices galore in your tickets.

What saved my day was that I followed my game plan that I laid out pre race for my readers. I said the more I typed about the Sword Dancer the more it was apparant it was that this was a betting race and that a good price would emerge. I took my handicap and placed a win bet on the most legitimate >8-1 shot on the board, Telling.

The Superfecta paid over $14,000 but I would have had to go very deep with my ticket to get there.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 14, 2010; The Saratoga Late Pick Three including the Grade I Sword Dancer

Ugh. Holding the Saturday Saratoga past performances in my hands made me glad I'm not driving three hundred miles today to see this. If it was a Wednesday or a Thursday this card would be tolerable, but a Saturday? If this is the side effect of extending the meet, then shrink it back down and start it the following Wednesday again. OK, enough whining, as horseplayers the one thing we do have is options and if I was betting real money I'd exercise my right to find a different card and a different sequence of races to bet on as this one neither thrills me nor gives me the feeling I can beat it with any sense of value in return. About the only thing that could make this card look any worse to me would be rain and races off the turf. Check the track conditions, the scratches and the weather before ever proceeding too far. I'm excited about tomorrow's card at Woodbine and I'm also excited when I think this is the last ugh Saturday of the meet at Saratoga so let's muddle through this and in the process I'll show you how I make the donuts when I'm trying to have a low risk/decent reward bet. Let's go!

Saratoga Race 9-10-11 Late Pick Three



Savvy handicappers I shelp around with tell me I shouldn't waste my time on the Saturday Pick Three when there is a tasty Pick Four to hunt at the same time. They are right but here at The Turk I cherry pick sequences I think I can win because hey, who the hell wants to read about my losing bets. As it is, this is a tough series of turf races, with the Grade I featuring a rather bland collection of fairly even horses and its sandwiched by two New York State restricted grass events with equally tough fields. As a horseplayer, that's an important mind set for all of us, don't play, especially chalk, if you don't think you at least have a reasonable chance of winning. There is always another track if you feel like you need to play.

I'm looking horizontally and vertically in this Pick Three with my goal being to construct a Pick Three for less than $20 and a Superfecta Ticket in the Sword Dancer for less than $30 dollars for a total layout of $50; Based on my choices being semi chalky, the return if I do everything right will be low $100's for both bets so the risk/reward is acceptable.

After reviewing the Pick Three I decided that I'd keep the bet even lower in the risk category by singling Expansion in the Sword Dancer. I give him a 40% chance to win and with a Pick Three of $12, I can live with the risk. Over-covering, or better yet, over selecting win choices in a vertical sequence is a mortal sin I strongly urge you to avoid. You will lose plenty of bets and kick yourself because the last toss you made won, but over the long haul you are better off. Personal choice I reckon and I won't preach. The first race I thought was the hardest and my first cut included eight horses. That's why they call it gambling.

And as far as the horizontal bet within the sequence, I'm thinking $1 Superfecta that will cost $29 but I also built a 10 Cent, $13 bet as well.



It's a 1 1/2 mile marathon of a race, and some of these runners will be advancing at the end and some will be shortening their strides and gutting for the wire. Taking a stand on the pace and then taking a shot at who will be coming and who will be going is always tricky, and I still believe the last good horse to make the best last move will win. I'm intrigued by Grassy and I'm wondering if this is the race. I'm also wondering what Al Khali will do against genuine Grade I horse flesh and what Telling still has in the tank.

I like this race alot as a betting race, and as I type I think a good price can possibly rising up to win. Hey, I'm just like you folks, I can be fickle at times. That fickleness tells me I'm right in not wagering much money, if any, on this card. Perhap's I'll invest my Pick Three money on a few win bets of my B-C horses with odds of >8-1. That's a defensive bet technique that has saved many a bad days.

Even on a down Sartaoga card day there are angles to play and fun to be had. Friends, have fun. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: July 3, 2010: The Monmouth Park Late Pick Three including United Nations and Salvatore Mile

The Turk hasn't played Monmouth Park too much over the years. It hasn't nothing to do with the fine citizens of New Jersey, I just always had other options. I've been watching the brave experiment underway this meet at Monmouth and I can't help but think it's the model that many other tracks should be trying to follow. Today's choice was predicated by the quality of racing. I had printed the Belmont Park Late Pick Three Races and while I liked the Grade II Suburban, I wanted nothing to do with betting money on I Want Revenge or Regal Ransom and I may just take a $2WP bet on Haynesfield who is at a nice ML 5-1. Races 10 and 11 didn't interest me much either (N1X 38K 7f on turf and N2L 26K 1 1/16 on turf)so I guess I'm at the shore.

That fine looking Gr./Ro. is Take The Points. I saw Take The Points in the Santa Anita Derby last year and like his stride, but his last six races have been a relevation and he makes his second start off a long trip to Dubai and earns Turk Chalk in today's Grade I United Nations. Munnings and the Duke of Mischief headline a nice but smallish field Salvatore Mile. Rest in Peace Gorgeous George Washington. Let's Go!



As always, start your handicapping with a review of the websites where you will get the key information you need before you wager. The weather looks good today and I expect the Turf will be Firm and Dirt Fast. It's a bit early for scratches and changes but the first race isn't until 5:23 Eastern so check back in.

Race 10 is the Grade I United Nations. It's a very nice 9 horse field with three pace pushers and lead takers (Get Serious/2 & Straight Story/4 & Acclimation/3 and some hard late closers in Winchester and a strong off the pace runner in Take the Points, as well as a wildcard in Chinchon (Ire) , freshly arrived from Graded Stakes action in France.

As I am looking for value in a Pick Three I'm less excited after my handicap then I was before. I see some chalk or close to chalk runners winning legs 1 and 2 and value may come in a big field N3L at 1 1/16 mile on Turf. If this was easy, children would do it (OK, possibly they do with respect to The Little Turk, but you get the idea).

I actually like this as a betting race for a reasonable price Superfecta so I will take no more then the top two for the Pick Three and most likely single this race and the next (just for a low risk, decent reward value bet) but I will build the Superfecta as I laid out above. I'm backing Take the Points or Winchester to win, and I'm really indifferent to which one does win. Winchester, a Clement runner and a son of Theatrical has solid Tomlinsons for both distance and turf and comes in off a very nice firm turf Grade I win at Belmont at 1 1/4 over Gio Ponti. Pretty good credentials for a resume that was second tier before that race. I'm betting he's on the rise and that's why we call this gambling! Take The Points drops back a 1/16 of a mile after finishing fourth in the above mentioned race to Winchester. A very sharp 4f bullet on Turf in :47 confirms he's rounding into form after a taxing trip to Dubai for Trainer Pletcher and jock E. Prado, up again and sporting a 20% win rate with the conditioner.

Of all the front running speed burners, I like Acclimation the best: Running at regular intervals with a G2/G1 and now G1 effort spread across almost equal 5 week rests. 3 wins in last 16 starts but 11 of 16 in the money over the same period and 8 of 12 in the money on turf with 33% win rate. I think it's a bridge too far but never under estimate the loose on the lead angle which I don't see happening with the others here to contest.

I'm only going to go down to my "yellow" rated and that includes a big wildcard in Chinchon (IRE) with Gomez up and Get Serious who I'm thinking will be dropping back instead of going forward by the wire. I might be wrong not backing Jeune-Truc (Brz) for 4th and I'll have to live with that mistake if it happens.

A five horse field greets us in the second leg, the Grade III Salvatore Mile. Munnings is a serious tease: A fireball who fires sometimes and at others seems content for place and show. He ran a real clunker in the slop at Churchill and is now winless on wet dirt, which makes you shake your head at his gaudy 480 Tomlinson for wet surfaces. He's 7 of 7 in the money on fast dirt and you ignore him at your own peril. Gomez gets the mount from usual rider J. Velazquez. Gomez's fortunes seem to fall and rise like the waves on the shore of New Jersey but I digress. A horse I'm VERY guilty of underestimating is the Duke of Mischief. 5 wins in his last 12 starts and his BSF's are anywhere from solid Allowance runner to Grade II star. Only won once in 13starts as the chalk at post time. Trainer Hawkes and E. Coa, up, win 26% of their races together.

Le Gran Cru is a solid runner that is saddled by the Pletcher barn for the first time today. 50% winner over 6 races at 1 mile. He'll go to gate >4-1 and might be a nice defensive win bet.

I'm again thinking I'll single a horse in this leg and I may single Munnings, contrary to what I have in my spreadsheet. I'm fickle when it comes to his regal horseflesh.

Race 12 is intriguing, a 12 horse field running 1 1/16 miles for horses stuck at two wins or less with claiming prices ranging from $25 to $20K. I have a whopping six horses in my top group, far too many but I may just go ahead and bet them all if I single the first two legs which is today's Truck Nutz (c) Iron Pipe Lock of the Week Play. OK, Truck Nutz don't really sponsor me with money, but friends of the Turk know how he respects the entrepreneurial spirit of America. Yeah, it's a holiday weekend and I'm having fun.

So that's my basic plays I'm I'm sticking with it. If i deviate I'll take 2 X 2 in the first two legs and drop down to three picks in race 12, most likely 6-10-12.

Have fun everyone. I'll be back for some Fourth of July hijinks. Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 26, 2010; The Belmont Late Pick Three and the Mother Goose Stakes

It's important to savor life and the old adage of too much of any one thing is a bad thing still holds true. I was "handicapped out" after the Triple Crown season. I handicapped an incredible number of races every week from January 1st until the Belmont Stakes and I needed a handicapper's holiday. I found myself a blogger without a voice, a blogger without an opinion. I followed my own advice and I pushed away from the laptop, enjoyed the sunshine, watched the Little Turk play soccer, smoked some great cigars, but above all else, I left the red flair pen on the table. I only ventured to DRF.com briefly, I took a trip to Arlington with Sister Turk and drank beer and just enjoyed the sights and sounds. I decompressed and I hit the reset button.

When I woke up today it was with a renewed sense of handicapping purpose and I was rewarded with a nice $370 won in the Late Belmont Pick Three and I was fortunate enough to help my friend win over $2,500 when I quickly 'capped another race and I gave him the Pick Four on a $68 dollar ticket. It was darn good day. Let's get after it!

Belmont Park: Race 8 - Race 9 - Race 10 (Race Charts via hyperlinks)



In the 8th race, I backed three horses for the Pick Three and my top choice Officer Flirt who ended up being the bettor's chalk and finishing 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner, Mystical Code who was the bettor's third favorite. My other choice in the field of 10 finished fourth, Sundae's a Meese, so I feel pretty good I had this one covered. One leg down and I'm alive, onto the Mother Goose.

It pained me to pick such a heavy betting chalk, and I expected it with a 6-5 morning line, but this was a very nice field of five and Devil May Care had to earn this win and I had her right where I needed her to advance in the Pick Three. My Trifecta bet didn't do so well when Ailalea never uncorked. I had Biofuel and Devil May Care perfectly placed but missed on Ailalea and I can't say I underestimated Connie and Michael but I wasn't prepared to spend more then $10 on a bet that would likely only return $40 if it came in so I passed. I'm starting to get very excited about The Alabama!

Alive and onto Race 10. I had four choices in the race and I was loaded for bear as my top two choices finished one/two and the Pick Three gained good value when the Duke of Naples, the bettor's sixth choice nosed out the very heavily bet Tagg runner Seattle Mission.

I feel refreshed and I won, always a good combination. The Turk has his Breeder's Cup tickets already and I'm feelin' it.

Have fun, Be Safe, Turk Out!



Sister Turk and "a friend" June 12, 2010

The Nomination Is In June 26, 2010: The Belmont Park Pick Three including the Mother Goose Stakes GI

The end of June. The Triple Crown season came to a merciful end and Northern United States and Ontario racing really kicks up a big notch. Kicking it down a notch is the beautiful filly pictured to the left, Devil May Care. Lost in the shuffle at the Kentucky Derby was the fact she was well placed nearing the top of the stretch and she ran out of steam like many of the runners that day. I didn't think she belonged but my name isn't Todd Pletcher and I do my best to not second guess the horsemen. Freshened after that race, training nicely at Belmont since late May, it's time for her to get back to work and I think she deserves some chalk, all be it light chalk, in today's Mother Goose Stakes, the middle leg of the Belmont Late Pick Three. In keeping with my method of not reading about the races before I handicap them, I was floored by the quality of the five horse field. While I would have loved to have seen 8 runners, this is a nice collection and it should be interesting. Let's go!

Belmont Park Race 8-9-10; The Pick Three including The Mother Goose Grade I



As always, start with the weather, the scratches and changes and the course condition. You have to know what you're working with before you make the doughnuts. It looks like a perfect day and conditions for racing.

Todd Pletcher brings three quality ladies into this race, all of them looking like they belong in the deep Grade I waters. Putting Devil May Care on top may not be the brave thing to do but I reckon she deserves it; A Grade I and II winner, a solid Derby effort and Pletecher's 25% winning off 31-60 day layoff. taking her means you don't believe the Derby effort took too much out of her. make that decision yourself but I think she downshifted enough to not be spent.

My brave handicapper side would prefer to have placed Biofuel on top. Trainer Baker puts the synth runner on dirt for the first time and ships down from the safe and race casino fueled big purses of Woodbine for owner/breeder Brereton Jones. A 5f 1:00 4/5 bullet shows shes ready to roll. Two wins in a row in ungraded stakes. For a bit of value I included her as an alternate in the Pick Three.

Ailalea is a two time Grade III winner that Pletcher gives back to E. Prado. 2 wins on fast dirt, including a win at Belmont. The daughter of Pulpit has serious expectations and a nice last race win to build off of. My gamble is she's close but doesn't win.

The other two runners, Katy Now and Connie and Michael are more then capable: Connie and Michael may be ready to post a surprise after a nice 92 BSF in an N1X at CD in mid May. Katy Now is a daughter of Tiznow and is 2 of 2 on fast dirt.

Race 8 is an inner turf Maiden race for fillies and mares at the $16,000 class level and 11 horses are entered for the grass. Officer Flirt in the four hole and Hear Me Roar in the five both drop in from the $25K level and they seem to be the most serious of the bunch, with Mystical Code also in the mix. Race 10 is an interesting affair, an N1X at the $39,000 level for NYS bred 3 YOs. Trainer Tagg brings a Sakatoga Stable runner in, Seattle Mission. Should be comfortable with the course and the distance. Trainer Pletcher has J. Velazquez up on Adam Rides Again. A in on Belmont turf at 1 1/8 the last time out for the gelded son of Cozzene. Cops Fever doesn't seem to know how to win, winless in 9 efforts at Belmont, but there are signs and the price will be nice, and the Empire Maker son, the Duke of Naples rounds out my possibles. Trainer Levine, with Prado up, puts blinkers on, something Levine wins with 24% of the time.

I'm keeping it light an easy with a $24 gamble on the pick three and a conservative Trifecta worth $4 bucks on the Mother Goose. Have fun with it.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 31, 2010: The Belmont Park Late Pick Three including The Met Mile

It was a great holiday weekend for the Turk, closed out by a workmanlike Pick Three win at Belmont. May has been a disappointing month for The Turk as the lack of a real Triple Crown contender always saps my faith. I handicapped, but my usually race-centric mind was distracted and unfocused. I had to follow my own advice which I dole out to other horseplayers: When you don't feel like handicapping, don't! I've had a relaxing month of analyzing race charts and watching race replays without the pressure of betting or blogging. This week, with the Belmont Stakes sizing up to be a snoozer, I broke out of my funk and handicapped like mad, playing Hollywood, Arlington, Woodbine and Belmont. I felt invigorated thinking about the second half of the racing season, with Belmont and Saratoga, the Monmouth Millions, Arlington and Del Mar all on my horizon. I'm going to forget this Triple Crown season and keep it positive. How about a Quality Road, Zenyatta, Rachael Alexandra Breeders' Cup Classic to make you feel giddy about the future. Let's thinker short term then: Who's going to The Haskell, who's going to the Alabama,Travers and Woodward, who's looking for an Arlington Millions win? All good stuff without the pain of a Triple Crown setback. Ok, let's go!

Belmont Park Race 9 - Race 10 - Race 11 (Race Charts Hyperlinked- Google Doc Inserted)



I kept my betting simple today: My goal was the Pick Three anchored around Quality Road being a single choice and I hoped for a price to take either the first or last leg and pump some value into the bet payout. It didn't really happen like that with the exception of Quality Road keeping his end of the bargain.

Before I placed my bets I realized that Strike it Rich had raced the day before at Monmouth so obviously was scratched here. It made my bet fairly straight forward; three choices in Race 9, one choice in Race 10 and four chances in Race 11. I plunked down a $4 Pick Three Bet for $48 dollars and thought I'd let it ride, no pressure, just fun.

In Race 9, prerace I thought Negligee was the best runner but included Check The Label in my Pick Three. The betting public saw this race about the same way I did and most of the money laid out was on one of these two fillies. Check The Label entered off a 92 BSF and a 1 Mile Turf win at KEE. No surprise in the win but a bit surprised that Crescenda came up for Place. Trainer McDonald was clipping along at 5% winners on turf and he had yet to win a race when teamed with E. Coa up. The lightly raced daughter of Bowman's Band has now won twice and placed twice in four starts and is 3 of 3 in the money on Turf. Not bad indeed.

Race 10 saw another dominant Quality Road victory and I stand behind my statement of believing that he is the best colt in training currently in the World. As I said prerace, if anyone would challenge it would be Musket Man, and he ran his typical solid race. Tizway was a bit of surprise to me but he shouldn't have been; Came in off an N3X 102 BSF win at 7 furlongs in which he ran a final 1/8 in :11.72 and has been training 5 furlongs in :59 3/5ths. Trainer Bond/R. Maragh win about 23% of the time and Bond's won last start is 29%. All good stuff but I valued Tizway further back. I backed Le Gran Cru to finish a bit higher. He ran a strong race and really pressed the pace but that wasn't the race I was hoping for from him. Fractions of :22 2/5, :45 and 1:08 2/5ths sizzled this group and the quality (no pun intended) Grade I talent of Quality Road and Musket Man rang the bell.

As for the Maiden Special Weight I had four choices out of 12 runners I handicapped (two scratched) and the shortest price on the board won, Lisa Jean.

The Pick Three returned $40.60 for $2 and my $4 variety netted $33.20. All in all a fulfilling weekend of handicapping and a nice Pick Three win without much risk.

The Turk has been traveling quite a bit and has had an opportunity to smoke cigars in many different cities lately. A friend of mine handed me a Drew Estate Java, a coffee infused stick, and wow was it good. I don't like flavored cigars but this was really good and it went well with my morning coffee as well.

Enjoy life, it's too short. Turk Out!