The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park

Mr. Speaker

I'm not sure about you friends, but to The Turk, the chase for the Triple Crown starts for me after the Holy Bull, today's handicap. I am so "dumb" right now on the 3 year olds, after paying absolutely no attention to the 2 YO fall racing, that I actually feel pretty good. I got too caught up in Uncle Mo, Union Rags, Shanghai Bobby hype over the past few years and it threw me off.

 The fan in me loves the idea of a monster arriving on the scene as a 2 YO and dominating his way to a Triple Crown, but c'mon, in this day and age, is that really possible? As the bar goes lower on American racing, yes there may be the next Count Fleet, but will there be the next Secretariat, and if there were, would the connections campaign him aggressively? I leave those deep thoughts to bloggers deeper than I.  

 As a simple internet handicapping hack (with a solidly black ROI but why quibble?) I'll stick to throwing darts at these baby racers and learn a bit about them, not for what I'll earn on races like this, but for me its all about the Super High Five on Kentucky Derby and Preakness Day. The Super High Five, my Holy Grail, I've won with low four figure results, but I want the big payout one day and that comes from knowing the runners inside and out and a bit of luck. 


Let's get after it!



I don't have much differentiation between the layers of quality I see in this race;  My top layer all seem capable of winning this race and at a minimum striking Top 4.  Mr. Speaker tries dirt for the first time, something McGaughey wins 14% of the time.  Nice efforts on turf.  Dam as had only 3 dirt route starters, 1 win and an 85 Beyer.

Coup de Grace (God I miss Havre de Grace by I digress) is a Fox Hill Farms product.  Going for 2 turns for the first time, a winner at 1 mile here at GP.  Brown/Johnny V getting together for first time here.  Brown is 32% off the layoff and 29% dirt winner, as well as a 17% Graded Stakes winner.  Dam had 5 dirt route winners and averaged an 86 Beyer, which this runner has already achieved.

Cairo Prince:  His sire, Pioneerof the Nile I watched win the Santa Anita Derby in one of the biggest disappointment racing trips I ever had- the Saturday morning scratch of The Pamplemousse, a speedy but fragile beast, which killed what looked like a major showdown just before the Kentucky Derby that year.  I digress again.  Cairo Prince, a grade 2 winner already and Place in the Nashua by a nose to Honor Code, looks to be a good runner for Trainer Kiran McLaughlin, a Turk favorite.  Training very well, McLaughlin is 27% off a break and $272,000 of earnings here already.  siblings have one 2 of 9 dirt routes for $65K and a 85 Beyer, so he's already above the cut for Dam Holy Bubbette.  Lots to like.

My next group seem capable of winning as well but I'm knocking them back just a little bit, rationally or not.  Intense Holiday, the obligatory Pletcher entry, goes from post 11.  Flat in the Remsen although last 1/16th was in :11 and change.  Dam produced no winners.

Wicked Strong also ran a quick last 1/16 in the Remsen for Show money. Dam produced no dirt route winners.  Honest horse who seems like it can rate already, at good price not an unreasonable win bet flyer.

Financial Mogul's dam Trav n' Kris has dropped some accomplished runners over dirt with a sibling best 106 Beyer and a 95 best Dirt Route. Nice rally at 13.7 to 1 for Place in the G2 Nashua.  Violette no wins in 7 stakes races past year and only 7% off a break that goes back to 3 November.  I'm thinking toss.

Almost Famous and Conquest Titan will be the two that screw me up;  Byrne/Borel race Almost Famous off a 75K OC at Churchill where he dominated after hopping out of gate.  No wins off layoff 61-180 days and no Won Last Starts.  At better than 8-1, real value in Exotic mix I reckon.  Conquest Titan goes for Trainer Mark Casse who I respect quite a bit. Dam Miner's Secret has no raced offspring. Son of Birdstone.  Working nice and comes in off 30 November $75K OC at CD at 8 panels.

I tossed three at my own peril.

I'll be honest, I don't like to bet on such lightly raced horses as I'm an information handicapper and there just isn't much here.  If forced to wager I'll go with something along these lines:

$1 Super:  1-6-7 OVER 1-6-7 OVER 1,4,6,7,8,11 OVER 1,4,8, 11 for $60  I stay true to base handicap for win/place, mix in Almost Famous, Intense Holiday and Wicked Strong into Show and Exotic and shade down Coup de Grace across all four spots and assume Mr. Speaker and Cairo Prince are top three.  10 cent version is $6 and you'll make Ok money if it wins.

Whatever you do, bet responsibly and make your own decisions. Don't let hype or some hack internet idiot who talks in the 3rd person influence your investment decisions.


Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday February 28, 2009

The first day of March. It's bitterly cold outside, but after yesterday, my Derby fever is really heating up.

There are 401 horses nominated for this year's Triple Crown and the contenders are starting to peal away slowly from the vast number of pretenders. For each Old Fashioned, we have numerous Parade Clown. For each Quality Road we have a plethora of Jack Spratt. For each The Pamplemousse we have Tiz True in legion.

I don't blame the horses, I never blame the horses. Horses are what they are. It's us humans that assign the lofty goals to them. Some of these horses in the Past Performances with the fancy Triple Crown nominee logo will be fun runners, some graded stakes winners, some hard knockers who give it their all and thrill us for years after this year's 3 YOs are off at stud.

I watched four races yesterday, with mixed, semi-poor results. The handicapper in me knew that much is still to be revealed at this point in the year, so I kept the bets small and enjoyed the races for what they were.

Race 8 at Aqueduct: The Stymie Handicap, 1 1/8 miles on the inner dirt track for 3 YO and up.



I expected Researcher to be the chalk and I expected play on Manteca. I was semi-surprised that Barrier Reef was the chalk, but I was not surprised that he won. Pre race I thought that Real Merchant had a chance to be live and long, but I was shocked at how well the foreign raider did here. I liked Barrier Reef's form and success at A, and I think Researcher was just away a bit too long. He'll be back.

Race 9 at Gulfstream Park: The Fountain of Youth Stakes G2, 1 mile for 3 YOs.



I missed on Quality Road. Pre Race when I poured over the PP I noted a few things about the horse: "Hadn't raced since 10 Jan. First time Lasix, Trainer sports 33% win rate in Graded Stakes and J/T don't run alot together, but when they do, they win 40% of the time. 5f in :58 and 2/5 seconds." I didn't like the post position and I didn't like the long layoff. I liked others better, it happens every week.

The number of prep races and chances to bolster earnings are dwindling. Each week, there are heavy hyped horses that seem to stumble when it is their moment to shine. Capt. Candyman Can and Taqarub and This One's for Phil leave me wondering where they fit in. The distance and the trip that these horses took will make me revisit this race several times this week as I try to assign meaning to the chaos. This is the fun part of handicapping, forgiving blame for some efforts and taking credit away from horses that at first blush did well. All that said, I missed on Quality Road. It wasn't that I didn't like him, I just liked others more, so shame on Turk.



Race 9, Santa Anita Park: The Sham Stakes G3, 1 1/8 miles on pro ride for 3 YOs.



The Pamplemousse. He's been wow in his workouts, he's wow physically, and he just toyed with the field in the Sham and made it look way too easy.

Todd Pletcher reminds us he knows a thing about horses. He found a better race for Take the Points and at the same time showed that the colt can run on synthetics just fine. I guess that will be the trifecta of stud values next, getting the G1 on dirt, turf and synth.

As predicted, a Calvary charge left the final results muddled. I swung for the fences on series of straight trifecta bets. If Mark S the Cooler ($22.60) or Hi Flyin Indy ($59.20) make it into the mix, I'm gloating about a big payout. Instead I bet 8 bucks to gain $22.10. Consistency will always rule over the long haul.

And finally I looked at Turfway Park, The John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, 1 1/16 miles on synth for 3 YOs.



I'm not done yawning after two Triple Crown pretenders fizzled, one scratched, and one losing to a good, but out classed opponent.

The Nomination is In (Part 2): Race Day February 28, 2009

Santa Anita, The GREAT RACE PLACE, race 9; The Sham, Grade 3: 1 1/8 Miles on Pro Ride, for 3 YOs. Ahhh, the mighty Sham, pride of California, with Pincay up, having the unfortunate luck of being born in the same year as Secretariat. He ends the race pictured here 31 lengths behind Big Red. Never forgotten here in Arcadia, nor should he be. Valiant in victory and proud in defeat.


With Baffert's Ventana scratching, The Turk sees a relatively weak field to push The Pamplemousse, a horse whose hype is building at least as quickly as his talent seems to be as well.

It's a Grade Three race, and I think there are some quality Grade 3 horses in this mix, but in my humble handicappers opinion, only The Pamplemousse is G1 quality.

I'm going to build my ticket with the heavy chalk at the top and I'm going to build several trifectas and exactas that hunt for value, all straight. I think the interesting wildcard is Trainer Pletcher's decision to run here instead of the Fountain of Youth at GP with Take the Points. J/T stats for Pletcher and Gomez at SA are 24%, offsetting the trainers so-so 17% synthetic rate. I don't know where to place this horse, so I'm taking the approach that he's a dirt runner who will vie for the lead and then get swallowed up in a Calvary charge in the stretch. I'm looking for Mr. Hot Stuff, Hi Flyin Indy and Mark S the Cooler to be in the mix.

The money will be spread around this field away from The Pamplemousse and exactas and trifectas will pay big. To paraphrase Danny Ocean, when you have a chance to beat the house, bet big. I may swing for the fences more then usual with this race. God forbid The Pamplemouse loses, the payouts will be big!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday January 17, 2009

Gulfstream Park, Race 9, The Mr. Prospector Stakes G3, 6 furlongs on dirt for 4 YOs and Up



Ikigai came into the race of a blazing 107 Beyer in a 5 furlong race at Calder and a winning Jock/Trainer percentage of 37%, and good but not great work at 4 furlongs. The odds rolled all over the place on this horse leading up to post, but he went off as the bettors 5th choice in a 7 horse race. It pays to be contrarian at the track when you are right. Ikigai was clearly the best on the track today, winning by 2 1/4 lengths.

The fact that Ikigai and Rollers came in one/two was interesting, but reading the tea leaf known as a Past Performance, the clues were there. Rollers had a four race upper 90/100 Beyer streak going until he turned in a dud in the slop at the Big A in November. Rollers turned in some very nice work, a recent 5 furlongs in :59. Tagg and Garcia had the classy 4 year old primed and we'll look for him again.

What does this mean for Black Seventeen? Apologists like myself blamed SA for his fall off, but the 5 YO is clearly on a cold streak. He could use some good ol' fashioned New York State dirt, but brother you gotta wait like everyone else for that, which means he needs to find his game.

He's So Chic had a bad trip and he'll be back.

I hope it wasn't the end for Kelly's Landing. The 8 year old has had a great career, capped with a win in Grade 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, with none other than Frankie Dettori up.

I had two low risk, decent reward bets placed. I had two straight supers with Black Seventeen/He's So Chic/Ikigai/Rollers and Black Seventeen/Ikigai/Rollers/He's So Chic.. Only have to hit a few of those a year the way I bet to stay black, but it wasn't to be.

And at Santa Anita , Race 7, The San Rafael, G3. 1 Mile on Santa Anita imitation dirt for 3 YOs.



The eight horse field scratched its way into a five horse field and the Turk decided to stay on the sidelines. I still like my pick of Ryehill Dreamer. I think he was inserted here to catch the bettors off guard. Our fellow Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance member Amateur Capper wrote me to say that Ryehill Dreamer still had a long coat in the paddock. Shake the coat out big fella, there are races I know you can win at SA, Dmr and HOL.

So what surprised me? The Pamplemousse wiring the race surprised me. I said pre race that this horse was a professional, consistent performer. He ran at 1 1/16 very well in mid December and had a 3f :35 and a 5f 1:00 3/5's and a 4f in :47 his last three practice runs.

I was not surprised by Square Eddie. He's now 2 of 7 lifetime, but 7 of 7 in the money. The Turk thinks winner's win, especially at this early point in a career. I'm not saying Square Eddie is not a winner, I'm saying if he was as professional as The Pamplemousse he'd be better off. Horses mature at different rates, just like us.

2009 San Rafael