The Nomination Is In: The Commonwealth Turf at Churchill Downs

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.  I'd like to begin by wishing the many horse players I know who served in our Military a Happy Veteran's Day. I myself am I veteran of the first Gulf War and a proud former submariner.

My nickname, The Turk, was a common nickname given to the best handicapper in a military man's unit.  Those nicknames stuck with the person, and I have read several obituaries over time of former "Turk's" who served our country proudly and just enjoyed the peace and quiet of the track the rest of their days.  This has been a tumultuous week in our Country, and this Blog is not being political, just expressing the sincere hope that average American's can embrace the differences of opinion and come together to grow jobs and be respectful of the personal choices we all make.

Today's blog is written for The Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner.  Today's target is a very nice 11 horse, 3 YO turf Grade 3, the Commonwealth Turf, at Churchill Downs.  I avoid 3 YO Turf racing like the plague until late in the year as it allows some historical perspective to develop on the past performances.  You typically get a funny mixture of direct to turf runners, modestly bred animals, triple crown trail rejects coming off the dirt, and future turf stars.  Today is no different and the field is both challenging and lacks  and heavy duty chalk which should make for an exciting race with money to be made.

Let's get after it!






Check the track conditions always when preparing your handicaps.  You can find Churchill Down's conditions here.  The weather does not appear to be an issue, with only a 10% chance of rain today and tomorrow.  Expect the turf to be firm.

Let's start with the base handicap and then develop some bet strategies off of that.  My two readers can tell you that sometimes my base handicap is pretty straightforward and I can bet directly from it, or I'll deviate.  With 11 horses, I have them in stratified layers of class and ability, and the bet construction has to take some educated risks and place a few high prices more forward or we might as well bet the tote board order.  33% of chalks win, a metric that has been very consistent for decades.  With big fields, you can get carried away with covering multiple horses Win, Place Show and the bets can get very expensive.  Avoid that trap and only bet what you are willing to lose.  This is not batting average:  Don't worry so much about picking winners that you are afraid to take a chance on putting a 15-1 in the Place Spot.  Public handicapping like this was very hard for me for a long time because, lets face it, no one likes to look stupid.  With that fear I found the handicaps I blogged lagged severely in ROI that the ones I didn't blog.  It was a horrifying prospect.  I had to get past the idea I was going to get a part of the prize, even a minor part, on every bet, and instead focus my handicap on identifying who should finish, and in what order, if the race was raced on paper, and the bet construction takes that base handicap and makes the best educated guesses possible to maximize the risk-reward relationship.  I'm OK with winning 3 out of 10 if those three cover the seven losses and makes me 15% on my money.  That is not always what unfolds but it's what I am always aiming for. Have something you aim for, your betting capital should be treated with deep respect.

Ok Turk, stop rambling and get on with it.  Ok ok...


I have Canadian bred (A shout out to my neighbors to the North courtesy of the Hip) Sir Dudley Digges in my win spot, light-ish chalk I may add.  5 pf 6 in the money on turf, he should handle the firm turf OK and he should like the distance.  He's with a serious group of connections, with The Ramsey's as owners, Trainer Michael Maker and J. Leparoux, up.  He's got class, he's got experience, he's been training over Churchill turf since late September.  I'm covering him in Win and Place on most of my tickets.

Tizarunner is a big stretch for me, both in the base handicap and the bet.  The A--- means he's really a B, but I see a horse who last time out set a 90 Beyer over a firm 1 1/8 miles at KEE winning with a nice late turn of foot. 4 of 5 in the money, a high price at the March 2015 OBS sale of $325,000, classy Tizway son may just be a late bloomer.  Trainer Casse is 17% winner over the turf and I think I'm going to like his price at >6-1 for the Place and Show spots.

Bondurant  is a War Front making just his sixth start, all over grass.  He's never gone past 1 mile and he's taking a big step up in conditions.  I may have him too high and will cover Show/Exotic only.

One Mean Man carries the race high weight of 123 pounds and I may have this modestly bred Mizzen Mast son too low.  He had an OK, somewhat slow summer over grass, with some success at Arlington and CD.  Making Dirt/Turf swap, something Trainer Flint wins 12% of the time.  5 wins in 12 turf starts, 9 of 123 in the money over turf, no wins at the distance and 1 in in two CD starts.  Win isn't unreasonable, Place and Show very possible.

Surgical Strike had moderate success this summer after coming off some nice Spring runs at Turfway and Arlington.  Similar Beyer as many of the runners here, 80-84 with one 90+.  Place/Show/Exotic possible.

Scholar Athlete is a son of a Turk favorite, Einstein (Brz).  This video, the Arlington Million from 2009, has no relevance other than to watch Sir Dudley Digges sire, Gio Ponti sweep to victory over, among others, Einstein.  Scholar Athlete is another Ontario bred, trained by Graham Motion who takes the blinkers off, an angle  he's won 22% on 9 tries. This horse gives way late fairly regulatory.  No better than Place or Exotic, but he has talent.

Finally from the group of horses that will make up my bet selection, Black Out (Fr).  A third Casse entry.  4 wins in 9 turf starts and a field best 92 Beyer.  Ran an exceptional N1X $77K ALW at Belmont over good turf at 1 mile in mid October, his second North America start.  Something makes me wonder that I should have flip flopped Tizarunner and Black Out (Fr) as i get the feeling he's live and Casse is looking for an under the radar score.  I'll be covering in Win down.

I tossed the 1,9,11 and 4 at my own peril.

So what do we have?  We have a pretty level playing field without much separating these runners. Class is my tie breaker: Sir Dudley Digges, Bondurant, Tizarunner, and Scholar Athlete bring the class and I'll hang my hat on them.

a $1 Trifecta Bet costing $46 might look like this:

2-3 OVER 2-3-5-7-8-10 OVER 3-5-6-7-8-10

That may be too pricey and you may not like the risk-reward.  I don't blame you and you can try something with a bit more risk but more reward.

A $2 Exacta for $36 may look like this:

2-10-3 OVER 2-10-3-8-7-5-6

and for $18

2-3-10 over 2-3-10-7-8

These are fun races to bet and I would expect the payouts will be handsome.  Enjoy!

Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: Breeders' Cup Saturday Breeders' Cup Classic Grade I

While not my Chalk, The Turk is enamored with the pretty mare to the left in the wonderful Charles Pravata photo, Zenyatta. We wish her well and hopes she proves us wrong.

Race 9 at Santa Anita Post Time 6:45 ET; The Breeders' Cup Classic Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on very fake dirt for 3 YOs and Up.

I'm not thrilled to be presenting one Euro after another to win but they seem to be better right now on Turf and that form seems to be playing the best on the polytrack. Adian O'Brien has not had success on the American Stage yet but brings a solid runner in Rip Van Winkle with his rider Murtagh up today. Coming in with two straight Grade I wins after getting away in the conditions book from See the Stars, a theme it would seem today and another horse we are giving credit to for running only one beaten length to the superstar. Hedging down and I think he's a very vunerable chalk.

I'm going to give Hall of Famer Baffert's Richard's Kid another chance to show me he's for real. A decent Goodwood followed up his Pacific Classic win. Proven on poly but a big stretch here. Working very well.

Either Gio Ponti or Einstein I expect to step up and possibly surprise for the win and both are capable of being in the top four. How easy it is to overlook these two titans as a knowledgeable horsewoman named Cathy reminded me of today.

Summer Bird has as many wins on an off track (2) as he has on fast dirt, but no starts on turf or poly. In my mind he's done enough to be the 3 YO of the year and if he can find the top three here today, he'll cement his status, but I'm not banking on it.

Mighty Zenyatta is a very very very good horse, a great F&M runner, and a poly monster. I think she should have tried the Classic last year, not this year. I truely hope I am wrong but I think she's wearing down not speeding up and a 98 BSF won't win today.

I have great respect for the little gelding that could, Mine That Bird. I look forward to his 4 YO season and I haven't written him off here, I'm just being realistic. More then talented, but the Goodwood was so-so and last year's BC was abysmal, so this particular form of fake dirt may not be his cup of tea.

These are the days. Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 6th, 2009: The Vice Regent at WO and the Pacific Classic GI at Del Mar

Race 9 Del Mar Post Time 8:10 ET: The Pacific Classic Grade I; 1 1/4 Miles on Fake Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



Live and Long, Richard's Kid is a prime study in educated longshot selections. Two bullets pre race and three solid works since his last race, trained by a high level trainer (Hall of Fame Bob Baffert)and a great jock with Mike Smith up. Just based on the Past Performances, you never pick this horse. It's an angle you have to look for, and even then, its no sure thing, but it happens and it's blindingly obvious in hindsight.

Einstein and Rail Trip ran solid races and seemed to be caught off guard by the strong stretch run of Richard's Kid. Colonel John had a bad trip and had to check up a few times heading into the last 1/4 mile and never got rolling. Informed, my chalk, laid back and never really fired.

It was an odd pace with speed in front and the speed throttled back. That's why they run em'.



Race 8 WO: The Vice Regent; 1 Mile on Ontario Turf for 3 YOs sired by Ontario Stallion



In my pre race analysis I had Guipago with <10% chance of winning. In reviewing the PP I see nothing that would make me think this horse was primed to win this race.

That said, I was very surprised to see this horse rise up the tote board ranking as post time approached. I placed just a few Trifecta bets based on my base handicap with a few variation on the Show horse, all bust of course.

Sometimes, a handicapper has to move on. The races were a mixed bag for me, but a handicapper learns from the wins and the losses.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 6, 2009; The Pacific Classic Grade I; 1 1/4 Miles on Fake Dirt at Del Mar

Oh, mighty Go Between, son of Point Given, winner of the 2008 Pacific Classic and felled sadly by a heart that seemed infallible. Your spirit and memory will hang heavy over the race that defined you.

Go Between's loss and the absence of an injured Well Armed leaves this edition of the Pacific Classic missing two superstars. While we miss their presence, we handicap the race, hope that all starters finish sound, and plan out a handicap that we can use to cash some tickets. I guess that's what its all about.

Race 9 Del Mar Post Time 8:10 ET: The Pacific Classic Grade I; 1 1/4 Miles on Fake Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



A stratification layer of quality levels exists with six of the starters capable of crossing the line first and then a six horse group that contains some Grade II and III runners but more then likely not capable of dictating the outcome in this race.

Of the top layer of horses, the Turk likes Informed for real value and Rail Trip for an almost assured top 3 position.

There is lots to like with Informed. He is coming off an early August Grade II win at Del Mar at 1 1/16 and two races back he beat Rail Trip in a Grade II at Hollywood. A five year old with 6 career wins in 22 starts, there is a parallel that can be drawn with our fallen champion, Go Between. If this horse goes off at his ML 10-1 I will place a small win bet on him. I'm expecting a top four finish.

Rail Trip is a four year old gelding who started his career winning five straight before steeping sideways and then taking a huge leap forward with the Grade I Hollywood Gold Cup win. He's rested since that mid July effort and has been working an interesting program for Trainer Ellis at Del Mar since early August. I don't think you can expect him to be as sharp as he was, but he could surprise me and if he does I will have to reevaluate my view on his long term class. I don't see anyway he doesn't finish in the top 4 and I expect a top 2 finish. 8 of 8 lifetime in the money. Making his first start at Del Mar. Trainer Ellis does have a 25% win rate in 108 tries on 31-60 day layoffs.

The Turk is an unabashed Einstein fan. I'd love to place him in the win spot here, but I must also admit I'm not thrilled with the way his connections have thrown him all around the conditions book. Coming off his second dismal Arlington Millions and returning to fake dirt for the first time since his Grade I win at Santa Anita and a 103 BSF, his only effort on the fake stuff, so this will be his first time on the Del Mar version of fake dirt. You don't need to know much more, this horse is capable of winning on any surface and under just about any pace scenario. He was purchased by Stronach Stables and at 7 YO you have to wonder how many more races he will be allowed to wow us in. Clearly he's capable of winning today and he'll be in my top 4 and most likely top 3.

For the forth spot on my base superfecta ticket I am torn between Mast Track, Col. John and Misremembered. Mast Track has faltered lately but is still dangerous, Col. John is coming off a turf win and hasn't gone longer then 7f since the Breeders Cup Classic, and that leaves Misremembered, freshened since a mid July Grade II win at HOL.

A series of bets based on my base handicap will be made, not quite a box but not quite a wheel either. I'm hunting for a Tri and Superfecta and we'll see what we can do.

Have fun, Happy Labor Day, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 8, 2009; The Arlington Millions Grade I

The Weather in Arlington Heights looks like it will be a bit dicey between two and five PM. You'll find the complete Arlington Card Comments at their website, and you are going to want to see what the turf condition is listed as at racetime. That fake stuff is always listed as fast.

Last year, the Turk and many others were shocked by the 12-1 French Invader Spirit One. I, as many other handicappers, struggle to make apples to apples comparisons of horses from Europe that are intermixed in the PPs with our North American runners. I purchased a copy of Alan Shuback's Global Racing and started to educate myself on the tracks, the races, the level of quality between a Grade I here and a Grade I in Singapore for example. I understand Mr. Shuback is at Arlington today signing books, seek him out and meet a true racing heavy hitter.

I love to handicap the races with the Euro invaders, and that is one of the big draws of the Breeders Cup for me, but my friends, handicapping and betting are two very different and mutually separate activities. If you want your ROI to stay positive and phat, handicap but don't bet on races where you don't feel you have enough information. You can track down everything you'd like on Stotsfold (GB), but it's a time consuming process and not something I do except for the Breeders Cup.

10 cent Super's are in fashion, so in full disclosure, that's going to be my focus.

Arlington Park Race 9 Post Time 5:42 ET; The Arlington Millions Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on immaculate Illinois Turf for 3 YOs and Up.



I like Gio Ponti, especially from gate 6. The 4 YO Tale of the Cat son exploded this year and looks to be a dominant older horse for a few years to come. He has a 1 1/4 mile Turf win on yielding turf in June and a 1 3/8 win on Turf in July on firm turf. He has 6 wins in his last 10 starts and 80% in the money in his last 10 races. He's a staggering 82% in the money on Turf and 7 wins in 11 starts. Smokin'. He'll make a late move off the pace, and their appears to be plenty of pace coming from Presious Passion and Gloria de Campeao.

The Turk is a big Einstein fan, but this isn't a popularity contest. Trainer Pitts has had this horse all over the condition book, but I like him the most on Turf. His last turf win was on turf listed as good and he put up a 106 BSF at 1 1/8. Amazing, he's only gone 1 1/4 once before, a miserable Arlington Millions last year. I may even have him too high, but its not unjustified. 11 of 17 in the money on Turf, 6 wins in last 13 starts, the races lifetime top money winner by a smidge. The 7 YO has been training since mid June. most of my tickets will have him dropping to place, show or also ran.

I like Gloria de Campeao (BRZ) to hit the superfecta ticket. Coming off a big win in the Grade 1 Singapore International Cup a 1 1/4 miles and a well beaten second to Well Armed in Dubai before that. Three wins and a place in last three races. I expect the 6 YO to prompt the pace and the last several hops will set his final position.

My biggest struggle was where to slot Presious Passion. The 6 YO gelding has announced himself as a Turf force. The veteran runner has 39 career starts, 36 on Turf and 12 wins. 50% in the money on Turf, 5 of 5 in 2009. His last few efforts on turf listed as yielding were not so good, so he's a runner I hedged down but will hedge up as the condition of the turf course becomes apparent.

For live and long, I like Mr. Sidney, coming off a yielding turf win a 1 mile in the July 4th Firecracker GII at Churchill Downs.

Little Turk and Mrs. Turk are backing Just as Well today.

This should be a fun a ticket and between Arlington, Saratoga, and a Turk family gathering, my next 12 hours are accounted for.

Enjoy.

I want to end with my heartfelt sympathy for the good folks of Louisville who suffered under Mother Nature's fury this week. The Turk is an Honorary Kentucky Colonel and a longtime sailor on the USS Louisville SSN-724. When I visited the Kentucky Derby Museum last October I was treated like royalty and given a wonderful 3 hour tour of every inch of Churchill Downs. I wish them the best as they rebuild.

Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 13, 2009: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I at Churchill Downs

The Little Turk was campaigning for glory on the soccer field this past weekend. The chance to watch him run free up the wing gave the Big Turk a chance to decompress after handi-blogging nearly 100 races this calendar year. I had several races set aside this week to handicap, but after spending an hour or so on the Stephen Foster field, I could not find the focus to think of any other hoofbeats.

Resetting the pre-race buzz, I looked at this race as a chance for Einstein to once again prove to the racing world that he is the best older horse racing right now in North America. The Pitts trainee doesn't care about the surface at all, he just runs and wins. I also expected a big coming out party for Researcher and Finallymadeit.

The Turk often talks about the best bets being the ones you don't make. I couldn't settle on a bet strategy that I liked so I passed on betting at all. That proved to be a good move, as two horses I considered candidates for Show and the 4th spot on the Superfecta, Macho Again and Asiatic Boy, went right to the wire for the top two spots, while Einstein had a horrible trip and only his class allowed him to find Show.


Race 10 CD: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I: 1 1/8 miles on my ol' Kentucky home dirt for 3 YO and Up.



Watch the trips and tip your hat to the winner.



The race I wanted to handicap this weekend was The Californian at Hollywood Park. Congrats to the former claimer Informed, a horse I would not have picked. The best bets are sometimes the ones we can't make because jr. is playing soccer. Go Fire!

The Nomination Is In: June 13, 2009: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I Churchill Downs

That very nice Vanessa Ng photo to the left is none other then mighty Curlin, the best dirt runner in the past ten years, winning the 2008 Stephen Foster Handicap. Today's edition of the race features arguably the greatest horse running in North America right now, Einstein. The parallel between these two champions is interesting, as Curlin never found a comfort level on turf or synthetic, and Einstein seems to care less what surface he skims across.

Today's edition features at least 7 horses you could make the argument for winning this race, an impressive field indeed. My initial base handicap looks like this:

Race 10 CD: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I: 1 1/8 miles on beautiful Kentucky dirt for 3 YOs and Up.



With Einstein racing recently and putting up a 106 BSF, I don't question his current overall form. He hasn't won on dirt since taking to this track the day after Thanksgiving last year in the Grade II Clark. he is the superior horse and he has the CD experienced J.R. Leparoux up. He will be in the top three and almost all my tickets will have him Win or Place.

I think that Researcher and Finallymadeit are very similar horses and the same arguments for and against them are relevant. Either is capable of winning, but more likely I think both will reside somewhere in the top four.

The next cluster of horses, Arson Squad (long layoff, not a winning just a ticket dweller, Macho Again (likes the off tracks lately and not much of a place and show horse), Bullsbay (6 wins in last 14 starts, 3 of 3 CD, training well, and Asiatic Boy(McLaughlin/Garcia duet coming off long layoff, with lasix coursing through body for first time, something Kiran wins 25% of the time with) could all find their way on the ticket. I like Bullsbay's current resume the best, and Asiatic Boy is a bit of an unknown but I just don't like the long layoff.

My only toss out was Alphabet Magic..

That leaves me with a dilemma. I have been analyzing my betting practices over the past few months and I did notice a bad habit increasing: I'm working too many combinations of horses and not following my betting rules. I got a little loose with my rules around Kentucky Derby time and it's time to refocus. I'll wager between $12-14 and work my base handicap with exacta and trifectas. I'm keying to Einstein winning with the trifecatas.

The Little Turk is playing in a travel soccer tournament today. I'll have plenty of time between games to finish my bet strategy. Pay attention to the track conditions and the tote board.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 7, 2009: The Gotham

This is an exciting time of the year for me, and this year's prep races continue to amaze me. I'm a horse racing fan. I want to be amazed. I guess I'm slightly stunned at how no one horse in the 3 YO division has clearly separated himself from the others, perhaps with the exception of Old Fashioned, but even that is premature. I would love nothing more then to be sitting here in early May with 4-5 horses I could make a strong argument to win the Derby for. One more set of big prep races for these horses to go through, The Florida Derby, The Santa Anita Derby, The Wood Memorial, et al and then pencils down. To me, this has been a very exciting early season.

Yesterday's Gotham was another example of the topsy turvey nature of trying to clearly identify the best of the 401 Triple Crown Nominees. I Want Revenge is a fine horse, and him leaving the synthetics, shipping all the way to New York, and putting in a dominant 8 1/2 lengths victory should make everyone take notice.

There was much to like about I Want Revenge. He's lost to horses that were better then this field. He's faced G1 and G2 fields. He's consistently working at 5F in mid :59's. He's worked a 7f in 1:23 3/5ths and a 6f in 1:10 4/5ths. Those are good numbers. What I didn't like was he was 1 win in 6 tries and he had never raced on dirt. Throw that out the window!

Imperial Council answered the distance question yesterday as well, closing out the final 1/8 in good fashion.

Aqueduct Race 9, The Gotham Grade III: 1 1/16 on the inner dirt for 3 YOs.





The Turk spent an afternoon at Buffalo General Hospital, amused at the contradictory information that has been given to my father in the span of two days: Going home,not going home; Heart fibrillation/No fibrillation: prognosis/different prognosis. I have an awful lot of respect for the medical community, but I can't say the group that's punching the clock while working around Papa Turk has inspired much confidence. I placed no bets on the Gotham, and studying it today, I don't think I would have cashed any tickets with my conservative style. I needed Haynesfield to be in the top four.

On an unrelated note, I am so excited about Einstein. His Big Cap win really cements his place in the older division and the consistency to his efforts would have in a past era made him an American hero, albeit a Brazilian born one. 10 wins now in 24 starts for the 7 year old and over 2.6 million in earnings.

The Nomination is in: January 31, 2009

The Donn Handicap, Grade 1 at Gulfstream Park; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 4 YOs and up.



Another interesting race at Gulfstream. I'm looking out my window at the winter wonderland that is my yard and I'm really wishing I would have made plans to go to the Donn. It will definitely be on my next year's resolutions list.

Albertus Maximus just looms large. Wearing Shadwell Royal Blue and being saddled by McLaughlin for the first time today, he'd be a no brainer if this was fake dirt, but it's not, its honest to goodness real Florida Terra firma and the 5 YO is an unimpressive 0-3 on the real thing. All that said, and this is class personified. A real heavyweight and he should win this, no matter the surface, but....I like Anak Nakal to win this race. Besides having a name I'll never even try to pronounce, I like the current form and the placing of this horse to sneak in at >8-1 and make some noise. I'm swinging for the fences that most people won't place in their top four in this race, but I think he has a legitimate shot.


Arson Squad and Einstein are two other serious contenders for the big money. I think Einstein will gather alot of money on him and he should go off as the chalk. An impressive win in the Clark just after Thanksgiving, and just solid steady work that is indicative of a well deserved vacation but also good health for the 7 YO. Safe bet, little risk, little reward.

Arson Squad is a heavy hype horse. Just 2 wins in last 11 starts. Prado/Duttrow combo clicks at 27% of the time and Duttrow is 26% on dirt and 25% coming off a >60 day layoff. Last two races were speed burners, but I betting he doesn't come back at the same form in his first race back.

I think Bullsbay and A.P. Arrow can make an exotic ticket pay big. I think both are capable of place or show, but I wouldn't predict the wire for either. Bullsbay is just a steady eddie and A.P. Arrow is all over the board. We'll see.