The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
As the Turk likes to tell his readers, sometimes you just have to let certain races go. The Iowa Derby is one of those races. I'll add video when I can find it, but it appears from the chart that the speed went to the front. As I said pre race, Soul Warrior and Red Lead were the pace. The problem was the horses I predicted to come off the pace just never did. Terrain was vanned off and I hope to find some news on him soon. We will take the no news is good news approach. Just an ugly looking race chart. Shake the prairie dust from your sandals, as there are other race tracks to handicap today. the Turk will be back later to handicap The Grade II King Edward from Woodbine and possibly return to Prairie Meadows for the Cornhusker Handicap, an 11:17 ET affair. The Acorn and the Vanity don't really interest me as a handicapper, but I will be watching as a race fan.
Until Later, Turk Out!
Race 9 PM: The Iowa Derby: 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt for 3 YOs
That fine looking animal is none other then Tiz Now, winner of the 2008 Iowa Derby. I've never handicapped Prairie Meadows so this is fun and games for me, but I'm betting my base handicap and a bunch of 10 cent supers and we'll see if we can't start the weekend off on a good note. The picture was taken by Coady Photography.
There is a 30% chance of rain tonight at Prairie Meadows. If you're concerned about the surface go to Weather DOT Com for the local update and avoid the Prairie Meadows pathetic casino-track website which offers almost no useful information.
Race 9 Prairie Meadows Post Time 11:17 ET: The Iowa Derby $250,000; 1 1/16 miles on prairie soil for 3 YOs.
This is an interesting field. I would peg the median BSF of the horses in this race around 85 and there is quite a bit of parity up and down the starting gate. Name recognition will lead many bettors to Uno Mas, but I'm not sure what to make of the Asmussen trainee. I'm putting him just outside of the top four, but he's a wild card as he has the class to be much better then his 0 for 6 in 2009 record.
I've liked Proceed Bee several times over the past few months. I also like Terrain. Terrain is clearly the best horse in this race and with a drop in competition, should be able to win this race. Both will come off the pace, most likely set by Red Lead and Soul Warrior.
Watch the tote and as always look for value. I don't have a strong opinion on my handicap but if forced to choose I'd say it has a mid level chance of being accurate. To me that's not good enough to wager any significant dollars. I will bet several 10 cent supers, and then no more the 10 dollars on straight tri and exacta bets. Have fun.
The first day of March. It's bitterly cold outside, but after yesterday, my Derby fever is really heating up.
There are 401 horses nominated for this year's Triple Crown and the contenders are starting to peal away slowly from the vast number of pretenders. For each Old Fashioned, we have numerous Parade Clown. For each Quality Road we have a plethora of Jack Spratt. For each The Pamplemousse we have Tiz True in legion.
I don't blame the horses, I never blame the horses. Horses are what they are. It's us humans that assign the lofty goals to them. Some of these horses in the Past Performances with the fancy Triple Crown nominee logo will be fun runners, some graded stakes winners, some hard knockers who give it their all and thrill us for years after this year's 3 YOs are off at stud.
I watched four races yesterday, with mixed, semi-poor results. The handicapper in me knew that much is still to be revealed at this point in the year, so I kept the bets small and enjoyed the races for what they were.
Race 8 at Aqueduct: The Stymie Handicap, 1 1/8 miles on the inner dirt track for 3 YO and up.
I expected Researcher to be the chalk and I expected play on Manteca. I was semi-surprised that Barrier Reef was the chalk, but I was not surprised that he won. Pre race I thought that Real Merchant had a chance to be live and long, but I was shocked at how well the foreign raider did here. I liked Barrier Reef's form and success at A, and I think Researcher was just away a bit too long. He'll be back.
Race 9 at Gulfstream Park: The Fountain of Youth Stakes G2, 1 mile for 3 YOs.
I missed on Quality Road. Pre Race when I poured over the PP I noted a few things about the horse: "Hadn't raced since 10 Jan. First time Lasix, Trainer sports 33% win rate in Graded Stakes and J/T don't run alot together, but when they do, they win 40% of the time. 5f in :58 and 2/5 seconds." I didn't like the post position and I didn't like the long layoff. I liked others better, it happens every week.
The number of prep races and chances to bolster earnings are dwindling. Each week, there are heavy hyped horses that seem to stumble when it is their moment to shine. Capt. Candyman Can and Taqarub and This One's for Phil leave me wondering where they fit in. The distance and the trip that these horses took will make me revisit this race several times this week as I try to assign meaning to the chaos. This is the fun part of handicapping, forgiving blame for some efforts and taking credit away from horses that at first blush did well. All that said, I missed on Quality Road. It wasn't that I didn't like him, I just liked others more, so shame on Turk.
Race 9, Santa Anita Park: The Sham Stakes G3, 1 1/8 miles on pro ride for 3 YOs.
The Pamplemousse. He's been wow in his workouts, he's wow physically, and he just toyed with the field in the Sham and made it look way too easy.
Todd Pletcher reminds us he knows a thing about horses. He found a better race for Take the Points and at the same time showed that the colt can run on synthetics just fine. I guess that will be the trifecta of stud values next, getting the G1 on dirt, turf and synth.
As predicted, a Calvary charge left the final results muddled. I swung for the fences on series of straight trifecta bets. If Mark S the Cooler ($22.60) or Hi Flyin Indy ($59.20) make it into the mix, I'm gloating about a big payout. Instead I bet 8 bucks to gain $22.10. Consistency will always rule over the long haul.
And finally I looked at Turfway Park, The John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, 1 1/16 miles on synth for 3 YOs.
I'm not done yawning after two Triple Crown pretenders fizzled, one scratched, and one losing to a good, but out classed opponent.
As the Turk likes to tell his readers, sometimes you just have to let certain races go. The Iowa Derby is one of those races. I'll add video when I can find it, but it appears from the chart that the speed went to the front. As I said pre race, Soul Warrior and Red Lead were the pace. The problem was the horses I predicted to come off the pace just never did. Terrain was vanned off and I hope to find some news on him soon. We will take the no news is good news approach. Just an ugly looking race chart. Shake the prairie dust from your sandals, as there are other race tracks to handicap today. the Turk will be back later to handicap The Grade II King Edward from Woodbine and possibly return to Prairie Meadows for the Cornhusker Handicap, an 11:17 ET affair. The Acorn and the Vanity don't really interest me as a handicapper, but I will be watching as a race fan.
