The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Showing posts with label The Woodward Stakes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Woodward Stakes. Show all posts
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now in our 15th year of providing racing handicaps and warm hearted banter to people who never asked for it and most definitely didn't pay for it. I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for indulging me.
Belmont at the Big A. That's the silliest thing I've heard in a long time. Today's race is at Aqueduct, I'm not sure why they just couldn't say that. I'm not sure why Belmont construction couldn't avoid the fall racing season, but that's over my pay grade. The Woodward. When I first got into horse racing as an adult this race was at Belmont, but it wasn't until the move to Saratoga did I form lifelong memories of this race. Usually on the Saturday before Labor Day, it was a perfect opportunity to spend a last bit of summer at Saratoga, away from the stress of the day job: Rachel Alexandra, Curlin, Mine That Bird (a shadow of himself) and Harve de Grace. The race hasn't been so good at the end of Saratoga meet and I'm glad it came back to Belmont where it can be positioned as a Breeders' Cup prep, but this edition? Life is Good and four also rans. This isn't horse racings='s finest to offer.
What do do with something like this race? Don't play it. You're either a horseplayer or you are a fan. If you are purely fan, do what you like, enjoy the most dominant colt in training currently. If you're a horse player, box the other four in an exacta or put the four in the win and the field in the place box and hope for something whacky.
I wish I had more to offer you, but I can't make gold from straw. If you really want some action, don't bet Life is Good at all. Perhaps he has a bad step or doesn't seem right, I'm sure the Jockey instructions will be clear to protect the horse regardless of today's race. Now you got some value. The reality is longshots most likely Place, not Win. There isn't much to be gained except an Exacta with Life is Good to Win and Informative or Thomas Shelby to Place, the two horses I think most likely to be lowest odds on the board. If you must be right, regardless of the betting philosophies against this, single Life Is Good Over Keepmeinmind and/or Law Professor.
Preservationist with J. Alvarado up; Photo by Coglianese/Joe Labozzetta
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, rapidly completing our tenth full year of providing horse racing analysis and handicapping advice to readers who never asked for it. I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for asking me to share my thoughts with you today on The Woodward, a Grade 1 dirt affair over what should be a fast Saratoga course.
Readers of the Turk will note that I have not been very active in horse racing this year. Quite frankly, I considered quitting The Turk and leaving the sport entirely. I'm tired of the constant ways that this sport finds to turn off the fans, the bettors, the lack of any real vision, the criticism of anyone that offers any real vision, and then the tracks themselves: tone deaf, reactionary, caring only about themselves. Musicians playing on the deck of the Titanic, except the Titanic sank years ago. This is not the grand boat it was. Look at the empty seats behind Preservationist at Belmont as he enters the win circle. Visit tracks most days of the week, you already know what I mean. The Turk is talking to the choir, and its a small choir. I love the sport, as anyone reading this does to. Try as much as I have tried in 10 plus years and I have only been able to grow a few new casual fans of the game. It's disheartening. I still have my loves: Kentucky Downs is opening for its short meet (5 dates beginning tomorrow through September 12), Arlington is still a palace and sooner or later CDI will let it go for someone to try to make it right, and the horses themselves, the older vets grinding out a living. Try as humans do to screw things up, the horses are why I won't quit the sport.
Let's get after this handicap!
Let's start with a bit of light video review.
The Whitney G1 SAR: 1 1/8 Miles/Fast Dirt/August 3
The Alydar $100K SAR ; 1 1/8 Miles/Fast Dirt/August 2
The Gold Cup (Not at Hollywood thanks CDI) Santa Anita: 1 1/4/Fast Dirt/27 May
The Pacific Classic G1 Del Mar; 1 1/4 Miles/Fast Dirt/17 August
I'm pretty torn on this race. There is not a ton of early speed, perhaps enough for the late chargers to take an aim at, but the pace is a bit foggy to me. I'll assume that Mr. Buff, Tom's d'Etat, and Preservationist will strike the lead early. By my base handicap you have already surmised that Yosida (Jpn) and Preservationist have the best opportunity to be there at the wire, with Tom's d'Etat, Vino Rosso, Mongolian Groom and Mr. Buff moving in different direction in the last 1/8 of a mile, some advancing some retreating. I think I just summed up every horse race that's ever been run over grass! My apologies.
I think I ultimately see Yosida's class as what separates him from everyone else by a head or so. The 5 YO $2.3 MM earner is winless in 2019 but possibly just getting going after the grueling Dubai trip, with a very solid Whitney run. 2 of 2 in the money at Saratoga including last year's Woodward. 1 win in 5 dirt starts
Preservationist is my kinda horse, 6 YO, out of Arch, with only 9 career starts. 5 wins in last 7 starts, 5 of 6 in the money over fast dirt. Trainer Jerkens is 29% in Graded Stakes over past rolling year, 21% over Dirt and 24% routes. Jerkens/Junior Alvarado 25% winners in 16 SAR starts.
Out of my group of 4 possible Place/Show horses, I'm intrigued by Mongolian Groom. The numbers tell me I shouldn't be: 0 wins in 8 dirt starts, shipping from California, no SAR starts, no wins at distance, 2 wins in last 14 starts, $370,000 earnings in 14 starts, Trainer Ganbat 0% Graded Stakes in 10 tries rolling year. Why did they ship? Current form off Grade 2 San Diego and 2 weeks back Pacific Classic not too shabby. I like the taking a swing approach. It's not like they shipped to a County Fair, they shipped to Saratoga. I dig the effort.
Vino Rosso, the 4 YO Curlin, has got the class and 2 straight triple digit Beyers, including a saavy Pletcher move to put him in a weak Gold Cup. Ran a solid Whitney. Blinkers off, something Pletcher wins 24% of the time in 25 tries. Training good. Nothing to dislike, but this is gambling and The Turk is unlike a public/paid handicapper who doesn't want to look bad and just tells you what he thinks. Turk thinks Vino Rosso is an OK horse, $1.3 MM earner who is winless at SAR and incredibly has never Placed.
Tom's d' Etat is also very interesting and I consider him a good priced win candidate. 4-1 ML, I think that goes towards 3-1 but I'd like to see it head towards 5-1 to get really excited. 3 of 3 at SAR, 8 of 8 in the money on fast dirt and 4 of 5 in the money at the distance. The 6 year old was a $100,000 Smart Stike who only has 13 starts. 5 of last 7 in the money with 3 wins.
I'm thinking exacta's will be my play and I'm watching the price on Tom d'Etat to see if I include him in win portions of the bet.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. I'm not handicapping today, just relaxing. I put in my work this weekend and ultimately bet on only four races. As I said in just my last blog post, I'm a high volume handicapper and a low volume race track investor. I had some tough luck at Kentucky Downs this weekend, some good handicapping and some bad bet construction actually while at Saratoga I intentionally discounted Yoshida (Jpn) in the Woodward Stakes and have to live with that.
I told my readers the following, "...Handicappers just need to keep plugging away and not be emotional. Nothing I do today can make up for yesterday, today is about today, race 1 is about 1, race 2 is about race 2, etc. When you are a high volume handicapper/low volume bettor-investor as I am you have to demand a return that will cover these sort of misstep days. I'm a lifetime slightly positive ROI player, but its hard to make up the losses. It's hard to be "unemotional". It's taken a lot of mental training and focus to look back on the handicaps objectively, glean what I can from them and move on."
I mean every word of that. I'm nearly 52 years old. I've been handicapping since 1986 (32 years this past August) and I've been a horse racing fan since 1978 (40 years this past May). I'm in the prime of my life and I'm pretty good at picking horses and I just hope, like older handicappers did for me, I can impart some of those painful (read expensive) lessons onto my readers. I was rewarded with a Del Mar Derby win of $251.20 net making my weekend stat line as follows:
$76 Wagered on Four Exactas
$291.70 Returned
$3.84 Returned for each $1 Wagered
G2 Del Mar Derby; 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf
Tourist Mile; 1 Mile on Firm Turf at Kentucky Downs
One Dreamer: 1 Mile 70 Yards on Firm Turf at Kentucky Downs
The Woodward Stakes G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt
I woke up on Sunday Morning a bit dejected. I felt like I handicapped very well over the past few days but I wasn't rewarded. It's easy to spout off about how you should conduct your business as a handicapper and its another completely to act professionally on your own advice, but I did it. I gave myself a few minutes to understand where I went wrong.
In the Tourist Mile, I missed the #8 horse in the top spot. I had it wrote down properly in my book but in my hurry to place my bets before I had to go out (first mistake- I was betting about 2 hours before the race) I screwed up entering the bet. That screw-up cost my $55.10. Every time this happens I tell myself it will never happen again.
In The One Dreamer, I overbet because of mistake #1: I wasn't home to watch the Will Pay's and my bet was too pricy, betting $28 to "win" $21.50. I was off to a great start this weekend! On Leave, who I didn't think was a slam dunk, was a pretty heavy chalk in hindsight.
In the Woodward, rip up the tickets, I didn't do much right there. I did favor Leofric to have a big day and I gambled he'd be my "Kazan" in this race, the long odds filling the place spot in the Exacta. Centimeters away. Luck goes both ways.
I put yesterday behind me and I focused on the Del Mar card today with a primary target of the turf race Del Mar Derby.
In the Del Mar Derby, it all came together, good handicapping and good luck: One more hop and River Boyne (Ire) catches Kazan (Ire) and the exacta is paying $20.
Prerace I said some smart things:
River Boyne (Ire) was tepid and hadn't had a signature moment yet.
I liked the late closing speed of Kazan (Ire) for the exacta.
I'd like Ride a Comet at worse than 4-1 and he went to post 5-1.
That's the line between positive ROI over time and being a losing horse player. It's a razor thin margin and the best way to stay positive is to keep working at your handicapping and your bet construction and cash management. Focus on what you are good at. For me, I've narrowed my focus to exactas. I left a Trifecta and Superfecta on the table ($1,600 how I would have bet them) but that's not my focus anymore. I've hit big takes in the past and its thrilling, but I'm just not interested in the roller coaster of emotions that comes with chasing the big strikes. I'm Ok with low risk/good reward.
I'm working on growing my blog and developing a few more social interactions through it. I had a small but tight group of handicapper friends I knew and sometimes collaborated with but they have moved on. Taking the long view serves me well in life and as a handicapper. Just keep plugging away is today's message. As long as you are a skilled handicapper, the betting will follow.
Rally Cry (far left in Pompa White Silks)- Photo Erica Miller
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now approaching our ninth year of providing handicapping and analysis to people who never asked for it! Today's blog post is written for The Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner. The Thorofan is an organization that I'm happy to be a member of as they represent the fans, a group as ignored as another group, the bettors. The Turk is trying to stay positive in this era of negativity and I will end this thought by thanking the Thorofan for allowing me this opportunity to share my thoughts as well as celebrate and thank everyone involved with putting on the Saratoga meet. We enjoyed mostly good, dry weather, stars, and big attendance and handle. With the Woodward today, Saratoga approaches the end of the season and the horse racing calendar looks forward to one or two more big weekends prior to Breeders' Cup.
The Turk really enjoys fall racing as the past performances are mostly filled now with a 2017 record of performance expectations. As an "information" handicapper primarily, any time I have my current information, the better my handicapping is. With these high level stakes races the handicapper has a real advantage as you can almost always find video of the most recent efforts to combine with the past performances. Perhaps that good or maybe its not: Favorites are winning in 2017 at a 38% clip, returning around $4.90, so when everyone has better information, you have to work harder to find the overlays. It's hard to find them in Grade 1 racing, especially five horse fields like we have today (Milkowski).
I wouldn't call this a great betting race as a gambler but I do think it offers quite a bit of interest as a fan. Gun Runner is 4 of 4 in the money in 2017 with 3 wins and a place in the Dubai World Cup. The four year old Candy Ride (Arg) from Quiet Giant has $5.2 MM in earnings, 5 of 6 in the money at the distance and set a career high Beyer over this Saratoga surface last time out. He'll be going to the gate 1-2 or 3-5 and not much reason to doubt him.
If you are looking for value, and I'm not sure how much value they represent, look at Rally Cry, Neolithic or War Story.
Alydar 98K 6 Aug 2017: Rally Cry by 8+ lengths
Rally Cry with J. Velazquez up here for Pletcher instead of stable mate Neolithic, comes in off a sizzling effort in the Alydar. The Uncle Mo 4 YO bounced back nicely after being dusted in the Grade 1 Met Mile. He should go to gate between 5-2 and 7-2.
Neolithic amazingly has $2.1 MM in earnings on 8 of 10 in the money lifetime and some big dollar Show finishes. Last win at 2 turns? An N1X $37,000 at Gulfstream in December 2016. Somewhere between 6-1 and 8-1 offers some value.
War Story has one win in seven starts at this distance and 3 wins in 18 fast dirt starts. 8-1 or 10-1 into the gate seems reasonable.
Discreet Lover is winless in seven starts at this distance. 30-1 lottery ticket.
I'm not sure what I do with this. I'll be looking at Race 9-10-11 Pick Three and seeing if I can find any value in singling Gun Runner and finding overlays in the first two stake races. The Race 9 Saranac G3 has a 9 horse field and the 7f sprint Spinaway G1 is also a 5 horse affair.
If you like long shots, consider a $2 box exacta with 4-3-1 for $12 or Gun Runner over War Story and Discreet Lover 2 OVER 1-5 for $4.
Frosted winning The Whitney; Photo Adam Coglianese
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk. Today I'm writing this blog entry on The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga for both my hard core readers and the Thorofan Handicapper's Corner.
Frosted! Did you see the Met Mile and The Whitney? I've never been that high on horses returning from Dubai, but wow did this horse blow up that stereotype of me.
He checks every box for me: 13 of 17 in the money lifetime, 9 of 13 in the money the last two years with 5 wins. 5 of 5 in the money with 3 wins at the distance. 12 of 16 with 6 wins on fast dirt. Trainer McLaughlin and Jockey Rosario are 45% winners at Saratoga. Class breeding and premier barn and connections.
I can try and be a wiseguy but that's not me. My handicapping, perhaps old school in this day of analytics, is based on class, pace, past performance and conditions. I'm not going to waste too much time making a case while Frosted will lose and instead focus on who I think will be able to hit the ticket. Bet construction will focus on some exactas with Frosted singled and then maybe one Trifecta with Frosted in place and my Win and Show horses boxed in both spots.
Let's get after this!
Who other than Frosted can win? I see two possible candidates in Bradester and Mubtaahij. Bradester is the modestly bred, with a Classic's pedigree, six year old son of Lion Heart. 9 wins in 22 starts on fast dirt, 16 of 22 in the money on fast dirt, 18 of 24 in the money lifetime. 1 win in 3 starts at the distance and only one appearance at Saratoga, a Place in 2013. Three straight wins, including the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap and the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup over slop.
Trainer Kenneally keep Jock Bravo, up. Expect him to be on the lead all the way. My base handicap assumes Frosted catches him.
Mubtaahij (Ire) returned from Dubai and got one tuneup in the G2 Suburban.
Five straight published workouts at SAR since the Suburban, all at 4f, all about :49 even. Trainer McLaughlin enters him and hard to tell what the expectation is other than a tracking trip. I think he'll be close and could win if Frosted falters.
Shaman Ghost and Breaking Lucky are the others I'm considering for the Trifecta ticket and I'm tossing Samraat at my own peril from the top three. It's fairly rare for me to talk about two horses at a Saratoga race that previously competed at my home track of Fort Erie, but these two did in the 2015 Princess of Wales Stakes as both are Ontario bred.
Shaman Ghost ran a bullet :48 4/5ths, top of 61 horses on 28 August. He exited the Suburban too where he tracked wide most of the trip and fell off. He's on Lasix for the first time today, an angle Trainer Jerkens has done 23 times this year, winning a paltry 4%. Jerkens and Castellano are winless in six tries at SAR.
Breaking Lucky, the 4 YO son of Looking at Lucky (I feel old suddenly!) is slower than most here and in a speed battle I don't think he can win but i think he's game enough to be in the jet stream.
Game, yes. Tactical speed, a bit with a late 2f burst of :23 and 4/5ths. Still looked wonky to me near the finish in Grade 3 company.
I don't feel too much concern tossing Catholic Cowboy (love the name, Mrs. Turk would pick em'), Tapin Mojo or Tale of Verve. They will all be long prices which is a good thing/bad thing. I'm not interested in bet construction that hopes for an incredible fluky finish but someone is and they will have a good day at the track if it happens. My long term ROI is built on avoiding "scratch off ticket" styles of bets. Samraat at least belongs in the conversation of this race, especially off his spring Belmont campaign for Trainer Violette. You can cover alot of horses and overbet or you can make tough choices. I'm making a tough choice and tossing him at my own peril.
My suggested bets are along these lines:
$2 Exacta: 3 OVER 4-1-2 for $6
$2 Tri: 3 OVER 4 -9-1-2 OVER 4-9-1-2 for $24
And/Or (I think OR)
$2 Tri: 4-9-1 OVER 3-2-4-9-1 OVER 3-2-4-1 for $60
I like the Exacta and the Tri with Frosted on top, while the $60 lottery ticket offers the most reasonable pizzazz.
Whatever you do, keep your bets reasonable and enjoy the races.
Do you remember where you were on August 22, 2006? When the news of Horse of the Year Saint Liam dying in a paddock accident broke I was in an airport flying West on business. I couldn't shake from my mind the fuchsia and teal silks, Jerry Bailey up. There is a sadness that comes with this sport you just have to accept. Rest in Peace Saint Liam. Thanks to Tiznow Tim for use of the photo.
Havre de Grace, the four year old daughter of Saint Liam , made it look too easy yesterday. It was a confident run against a good field and she had more in the tank at the end than anyone else. It reaffirmed by feeling that our American fillies and mares are the best runners we have, the most exciting, and right now, the most gutty. It makes me appreciate Blind Luck a whole lot too as she wins yesterday if she was the won entered.
let's get after it!
Yesterday was a thrilling day as a horse fan, the type of day that doesn't come along very often. I was happy for Larry Jones and Fox Hill Farms, a team that gave me one of my happiest Saratoga memories in the past decade, Hard Spun's Kings Bishop win.
I whiffed on the Pick Three; I didn't want to believe a horse that was claimed in June for $75,000 could win back to back Grade 1 wins but that's exactly what Ask the Moon did winning the Personal Ensign after taking the Ruffian Handicap. Ask the Moon, whose name is now associated forever with Ruffian and Personal Ensign. That would make a good movie script!
The Forego made me sad for Sidney's Candy. Previously trained by John Sadler before being sold to WinStar, the four year old Candy Ride is a turf runner but with Trainer Pletcher at the helm he was switched to the dirt here. i don't mind seeing a horse given an opportunity to take down $750,000, but I wasn't thrilled with how Quality Road's career was managed and I don't see a real campaign being charted for Sidney's Candy either. I respected Sidney's Candy enough to cover him but I wasn't shocked at the dull effort and i was shocked that he was the chalk. I hit the Superfecta and I almost didn't without my late insertion of Aikenite into both Show and 4th. He was really closing at the end.
The betting public had The Woodward cold. The order of finish by ranking on the toteboard? 1,2,3,5,4,6,7,8. I hit a $125 Superfecta on a $54 dollar ticket. Pedestrian, not sexy, but cash is cash. The day I start getting disappointed that I only netted $470 for 3 hours work is the day I'll toss my red gel pens in the river.
With Saratoga and Del Mar ending many casual horse racing fans turn their attention to the NFL, baseball playoffs, college football, etc. I'd urge the new readers I've picked up here at the Turk over the past two months to give the sport a chance to keep you hooked. The Stakes Schedule is full of great races and betting opportunities. Even if you only focus on Saturday racing, which most of the time its all the Turk has time for anyhow, you can continue your handicapping skills and stay engaged with the game. I'm expecting Breeders' Cup 2011 to offer some incredible betting opportunities. Stay sharp friends.
