It Takes a Village: The Canadian Turk Returns to Handicap the Kentucky Derby

The Ol' Turk has asked Cathy, the Canadian Turk to share her thoughts with the readers of the Turk and Little Turk for tomorrow's 137th Kentucky Derby. Cathy goes way back in racing and her street cred is unquestionable: A Steve Cauthen poster on her wall as a child, a bag of Churchill Downs dirt and a run up the stretch , blond hair waving in the breeze that's the stuff of legend. She's a serious journalist, the closest thing to a professional here at the Turk, and she was kind enough to write her second guest blog post for us.

Without much further babbling, I present, Cathy the Canadian Turk.

Seattle Slew. Mine That Bird. Super Saver. One of these things is not like the others. And, after spending a good deal of time studying the PPs for this year’s Kentucky Derby field, I have my suspicions the winner may more closely resemble the latter two horses than the former. To sum it up: This year’s field radiates mediocrity.

The Beyers are subpar at best. With Uncle Mo scratched, only Soldat has earned a 100+ speed figure, which came in a January allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The main prep races (and I no longer count races on synthetic as main preps) were all won by outsiders, with the favorites falling like cheap wooden signs in a windstorm. And don’t even get me started on the conservative prep schedules that have become the norm. It almost makes one miss the old era of D. Wayne Lukas. Almost.

Having said that, it is still the Kentucky Derby. And just like a bad day at the track is better than a good day almost anywhere else, so too is an average Derby field better than good field in almost any other race. And I have an inkling there will be some serious money to be made in the exotics. Therefore, I am concentrating on a trifecta that will pay enough to buy me a box seat at next year’s Derby. (OK, I’d be happy with infield, or even not losing money).

I’ll begin with the favorites:

Dialed In: My first thought is to hang up on this one. I don’t like the fact he hasn’t raced since early April, and I don’t like the fact he will have to weave in and out of horses down the stretch, without a lot of seasoning behind him. Throw in his workouts, which I heard one analyst describe as “lackluster,” and the low odds, and my inclination is to pass. But, with Mo out – and weren’t we all curious to see what he’d do? – I am going to put Dialed In back in my exotics, letting him fill the slot I had reserved for Mo. It’s almost solely based on Nick Zito knowing how to get a horse ready for this race, but I won’t be surprised to see him finish up the track.

Archarcharch. Boy, was drawing the 1 slot badbadbad. I loved the way this son of Arch looked in the Arkansas Derby and, though he’s a closer, we all know what that post can mean. Anyone remember Lookin’ at Lucky’s trip from the same slot last year? Still, if by some chance Jon Court can take him back and keep him out of trouble, he will be there at the end. He’s never run a bad race, except for the Smarty Jones in January, when the horse next to him flipped in the gate. And with a 10-1 morning line, there are too many pluses to resist throwing him in my exotics.

Nehro. He’s the now horse for a good reason. Another couple jumps in Arkansas and he would have been a clear winner. Again, I don’t like the lack of seasoning or the fact he’ll have to work his way through horses in the crowded Derby stretch. However, Nehro stalked the pace in the Louisiana Derby and only lost by a neck. If he can stay close to the pace this Saturday, in my opinion his chances will be greatly improved. Having a vet like Corey Nakatani in the saddle is another bonus. I think he’ll go off at less than 6-1, but I still can’t see not playing him. A horse improving at the right time is always dangerous.

The longshots. There are longshots aplenty but I’ve narrowed it down to three: Soldat, Shackleford and Pantsonfire.
Here’s what I like.

Soldat. Throw out the Florida Derby and you have a horse who’s never finished worse than second. Everybody has a bad day, and maybe Soldat’s occurred on April 3. He’s now the sole owner in the field of a 100+ Beyer and can stalk just behind the speed. He ran well at Churchill last year, albeit on the turf. At 12-1, the odds are right.

Shackleford: He threw in the towel in the Fountain of Youth, and maybe that was his bad day. He bounced back and was just a head behind Dialed In in the Florida Derby, but I’m betting at post time his odds will be three or four times that of Dialed In. I cashed a nice ticket on Funny Cide a few years back, using the same theory after he finished just behind the much lower-priced Empire Maker in the Wood Memorial. He has a win at Churchill and has had some nice workouts. If I can get 12-1, I’ll be a happy camper.

Pants On Fire: Like Soldat, he’s had eight career starts, which I like. I wish he’d had a prep between now and the Louisiana Derby, but again, throw out his bum effort in the Risen Star and he’s never run a bad race. He also beat Mucho Macho Man and Nehro and was very game in his last start. 20-1 seems like a bit of a steal. Plus, I just can’t stop saying his name.

My strategy will be to combine these six in a trifecta, but I’ll wait to see what the odds are before deciding if I’ll do a box or key a few on top. I will not be surprised to see a giant exacta, so I may just box my three longshots in an exacta play and hope for the best.
It’s been a tough first Saturday in May for us handicappers, and I tip my Derby hat to all of you. After trying to figure this field out, instead of a Mint Julep, I’m more in the mood for a glass of water and a couple Excedrin. But horse racing is all about hope, and I will be full of optimism tomorrow when the gates open. Have a great Derby Day and good luck!

The Kentucky Derby: A Guest Handicap by Cathy (the Canadian Turk) and The Wire Players Dirty Dozen Poll Final Edition

Life is amazing. I find the symmetry to life to be the most amazing thing. If you live long enough you'll find people enter your life, leave your life, and reenter again when you never expect it. Case in point is today's guest handicapping blogger at The Turk and the Little Turk, Cathy, the Canadian Turk.

I went to high school where I met my wife. My wife has had a friend from second grade on who I also went to high school with. We all traveled in different social circles: My wife was an upstanding citizen, I was an underachieving vodka drinker, and Cathy was a hippy chick, think Stevie Nicks. What Cathy also was at a very young age was a huge Horse Racing fan with a crush on Steve Cauthen and Affirmed. Cathy went on to become a fantastic journalist with a unique voice.

Last year, Cathy's family joined The Turk's clan for a great day at the races at Arlington Race Track. Since then I've been lobbying for her to share her fantastic insights and handicapping acumen to The Turk. We are honored today that she has accepted and without further blathering from me, I present to you Cathy.

TRYING FOR THE TRI: LUCK HAS EVERYTHING TO DO WITH IT

By the evening of April 3, I had the 2010 Kentucky Derby all figured out. As Eskendereya waltzed all over his Wood Memorial “competition,” I knew it was my year to get revenge for 2009. After last year’s Wood, I also had things all figured out. It was I Want Revenge, then Pioneerofthenile, then everybody else. This year, I was convinced all I needed to do was put a couple longshots under Eskendereya in a trifecta, and I’d be laughing all the way to the windows.

But, déjà vu, the Derby gods decided to again smack down my smugness a week before the race, leaving me scrambling. It’s not pretty to walk around carrying PP’s everywhere you go, tell your son he can’t do homework on his laptop because you need to read handicapping blogs while you watch TVG or tell your kids to fill you in later about school so you can hear Steve Byk’s radio show in the car.

It’s been a lot of last-minute work, but by George, I think I’ve got it. (Of course, I think that every year and am usually wrong, but that’s another story.) There’s money to be made, usually lots, by winning the trifecta, so that’s where I concentrated my efforts.

First things first. The Derby is the biggest field you’ll ever handicap, and I usually begin by throwing horses out. I always start with the ones that have no business in the race (Full disclosure: I did put Mine That Bird on this list last year, but so did most people). So, bye-bye Homeboykris, Backtalk, Dean’s Kitten and Make Music for Me.

Next, I threw out all the synthetic/turf specialists – except for Sidney’s Candy – due to their dismal Derby showings in the past. Because of the unusual amount of speed in the race, I made the decision to throw out all front-runners – again except for Sidney – because I truly believe they will burn each other out.

That left me with a much smaller group to seriously handicap and the more I study, the more I’m Looking at Lucky. He is my top pick and having Baffert in your corner is a bonus.

However, things can and often do go wrong in the Derby, so I need to cover my bases and my posterior. So, the strategy is to put my top three horses on the top and middle of the tri, then add a handful of longshots on the bottom. The 3-3-8 bet I devised on a $1 tri will cost $36, but if it comes in ….sorry, but I know not to get smug again.

Here’s who I picked and why:
THE TOP THREE (Will bet in 1-2-3 slots in my trifecta )

LOOKIN AT LUCKY: He has never run a bad race, ran well in his only dirt start and has been knocked around enough that he won’t freak out when things start getting bumpy in the Derby. His rail post doesn’t scare me – he became fairly familiar with the rail in the Santa Anita Derby and never gave up. These are the qualities you want to see in a Derby contender.

SIDNEY’S CANDY: I was ready to throw him out, but just can’t. He will either win or be completely out of the picture when they cross the wire. Not wanting to look like a fool on May 2 (I know how that feels and I don’t like it), I will add him, although I believe he will not be the same on dirt.

NOBLE’S PROMISE: Throw out his Arkansas Derby and you have a horse who’s never run out of the money and finished barely behind Lucky in his last two starts. If he improves, even slightly, he’ll be there at the end. And his odds should be sweet.

THE REST OF THE BEST (All in the 3 slot)

ICE BOX: Nick Zito, and the fact that the Derby gods love a good comeback story.

DUBLIN: D. Wayne Lukas, and the fact that the Derby gods love a good comeback story.

AWESOME ACT: Lots of excuses in the Wood, and a better wiseguy pick than Mission Impazible

SUPER SAVER: Calvin Borel, plus ran well on a wet track and should be able to rate

JACKSON BEND: Chased Eskendereya, but could get a slice here. Did I mention Zito?

Noticeable in their absence are Devil May Care, who I just don’t think is as good a filly as others who’ve done well in the Triple Crown, and Mission Impazible, who seems to be the big wiseguy horse, meaning his odds will be too low. I may also throw $5 across the board on Noble’s Promise if the odds are right. And, just to be safe, I’ll lay the PP sheets on the couch, see whose name the dog sits on first and put a few dollars on that runner.

Best of luck to the one and only Rachel Alexandra and Happy Derby Day 2010 everyone!

Thanks Cathy! The Turk will be adding his Oaks/Derby Double Handicap as well as the Pick Three on Derby Day as well tomorrow.

And for followers of The Wire Players Derby Dozen, the final poll has been released. This was a really fun and collaborative effort led by Steve at Wire Players and I want to thank him for inviting Ye'Ol Turk to participate.



Have fun with the Derby and Oaks. Don't take these one's too seriously, they are meant to be treasured and remembered. Turk Out!