The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Showing posts with label 52 Bets of 2020 Series. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 52 Bets of 2020 Series. Show all posts
It's the age old saying, is it better to be lucky or skilled? In my experience at the track, skill gets you break even and luck brings you an ROI with boasting about.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. We started 2020 with the intention of blogging every week and having a 52 Bets in 52 Weeks series of posts. We made it to the end of February before, in this order, my father in law died, the quarantine started and life came to halt, and my father died. When horse racing did return, and when I came out of the fog I was in personally, the world was seen differently by me.
The lack of fans at the track doesn't bother me, but the rhythm of the racing season is ajar. Coupled with a sense of my own mortality, I wasn't sure if this blog, started in a different time and different place, September 2008, was worth continuing.
The reality is that almost no one reads it anymore. My traffic was never great, and it's abysmal now. When people did read blogs, mine wasn't good enough, or my writing not crisp enough to garner regular readers. I soldiered on because I never started this blog for any reason other than to share my insights into the game of handicapping and betting with anyone interested. While the world is different, and my priorities for that matter also, I still like the challenge of betting the ponies and I continue to be good at it. I may not have much charisma as a turf writer, but I have always done a good job picking winners, be it superfectas in the old days, but over the last few years, the exacta near exclusively.
I handicapped the Fourstardave and was struck by how good the field was. For the first time in a very long time I almost didn't toss any runners, and only after some hand wringing did I toss the Show horse, Casa Creed, a Mott horse who at 4 YO I thought was too slow to be with this group. I didn't particularly love recent form, although training nicely at SAR, but last year over this course he put up a 1.33.72 in the Hall of Fame G2. This one was won in 1:33.32. I just thought there was too much in front of him, but I did notice he was 5th on the tote board, just a bit better than the returning last year winner, Got Stormy.
Anyways, in the blog post I was clear that I wasn't interested in betting short paying favorites and I said I'd be inclined to $2 Bet Halladay and Got Stormy OVER Raging Bull, Without Parole and Uni for $12.
My ultimate bet was Halladay/Got Stormy OVER Halladay, Got Stormy, Raging Bull, Without Parole and Uni, a $2 Bet for $16. You hope for the best, luck helps, and on this day that $16 became $125. You'll find the race chart from DRF here.
The lovely Dita (pictured above) honored me with a cigar for my effort.
The 52 in 52 is up to Race 6. I'm just going to keep this spreadsheet rolling forward until the sample size is over 100.
The Turk put up another successful handicap and bet yesterday, but with the whopping $1.50 net earnings, I better keep my day job.
Recalling I handicapped The Fair Grounds, a 1 1/8 mile firm turf race for four year old and ups at of all places, Fair Grounds.
I said the following pre-race:
"... I like Michael Stidham's Synchrony or Norm Casse's Dontblametherocket to win. I gave the edge to Dontblametherocket mostly because he won theCol Bradley here a month ago, has 5 wins in 8 FG starts, 11 of 13 lifetime in the moiney over grass and 4 wins in last seven starts. This is the gelded son of Blame's 2nd off layoff, a 26% Casse angle. They are very close, so Synchrony wins the Base Handicap but I have Dontblametherocket current form as the key driver.
Synchrony is 5 of 5 in the money at FG with 4 wins, 14 of 18 lifetime in the money over grass, 6 of 7 in the money at the distance and has 6 wins in last 15 starts. As I mentioned this is the 7 YO son of Tapit's first start since early October but training at FG since early January.
I'll be building an exact and I have to decide for sure but assuming I include my three "B" horses and possibly my B- group as Place. I don't want to over bet so we'll see.
My B group isn't overpowering but all have good trainer/jockey combos and all are the type of 5-6 year old veterans who hang around Place-Show-Exotic race in and race out. I'm not really sold on the order. Factor This conditioned by Brian Cox has early speed and Cox/Bridgmohan have won 30% of 50 races over past year at FG. Cox is outstanding on turf/routes and graded stakes. Bill Mott's Classic Covey is a 60K ish OC runner primarily with a career best 100 Beyer in a G2 in March 2018. Off since mid October. Midnight Tea Time has 12 Place/Show finishes in 17 turf starts. Could be coming at the end.
Sailing Solo, $100,000 Smart Strike colt has only won $102,000 in his five years. I see promise but no production. 7 of 7 in the money in 2019. Early Speed will flash like Col Bradley where he led before finishing 5th, 5 back. Extra 1/16th today, same jock. I dunno. Ontario Canada Bred Tone Broke is slow but I always like to mention Fort Erie Prince of Wales runners. The 4 YO transitions from mostly dirt and is a huge wildcard. Bombs away candidate but don't bet the mortgage..."
I modified what I said just slightly and bet a 6 horse 1 dollar bet for $30 in which I won $31.50, a 5% ROI, well below my desired 40% baseline. My bet was 2-4-5-6-8-12 BOXED. (4-2 won).
Should I have bet at all? Let the Probables/Will Pay Table help you. If you are like me, its really hard to track the "Will Pays" scrolling across the side of the screen, but Twinspires, my unsolicited and not sponsored choice of betting apps, makes this easy to see.
On the App/Website screen it looks like this:
I made it a bit easier to understand by picking out my bet from the chart. You'll note the probable for 4-2 is exactly $31 on a $1 bet, and that is because I made these screen shots after the race started. I bring this up because you will be looking at this before the race goes to post and the numbers on some of the late movers may change.
So this exercise is, should I have placed my bet? Recalling the bet again
2-4-5-6-8-12 BOXED.
The bets in RED should NOT have been made. If the bet was successful, I'd make less than the bet was worth, a semi persistent problem of mine. The bets in YELLOW are marginal enough to not be bothered making.
I would say betting Synchrony/2 to win was a waste of capital. A Synchrony/Tone Broke/8 Exacta was possible and deserved a stand alone bet. You could say the same about Dontblametherocket/5 and anyone but Tone Broke.
Factor This/4 with the 6 or the 8 would have been nice, with the 12 marginal but acceptable.
I think the take away is the bet wasn't worth the risk. I felt pretty confident pre-race that Synchrony or Dontblametherocket would win and so did the betters sending them off $1.40 and $2.30 to $1 respectively. I should have walked away, the favorites even in this field size were bet down too hard. The scratch of early speed Sailing Solo didn't help.
My weakness is not as a handicapper but as a bettor. I am a good gambler in general but in hindsight this was a bad bet and I got bailed out not losing anything when Factor This won. What should I have done differently besides walk? Break the bet up and not box it lazily is usually always the takeaway. Always try to learn something. Watch the trip of Dontblametherocket. He was 3, 4 and then 5 wide. Watch where he shows up next.
About 10% through the 52 bet challenge and I have a 56% ROI and I'm up about $125 on the year. I still expect to be break even or negative by the end of the year, small sample size and all, and making mistakes like today will not help. I will focus much more and walk away when I see this pattern return.
Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog. To those new to this blog, I started handicapping in 1986 and I've been blogging in a really dreadful fashion since September 2008. I focus on races run over routes of grass primarily by four year old and upwards. I don't really care about The Kentucky Derby or the Triple Crown except as a fan, I prefer the horses, geldings and mares who are just doing their best in relative anonymity in the dark times of racing. It's very sad to me how far horse racing has fallen in the cultural lexicon and not even two Triple Crown winners could change that. At the end of the day, the track owners, horse owners and the breeding farms all act in self interest and the ones that suffer are the dwindling fans, backside workers and ultimately, the horses not worth much post retirement. I digress.
I took a few weeks away from the 52 bets in 52 weeks series I am conducting as I just wasn't thrilled with the races available and the track conditions. I preach walking away if you don't like the race conditions and that's what I did. I will recap the series results at the end of this blog post, the Turk is off to a pretty good start in 2020 after the last race, the Pegasus Turf.
Let's get after today's race, expected over firm turf at 1 1/8 miles, The Fair Grounds Grade 3.
I'm not sure who set the morning line, but I saw the race very similar to the handicapper. I don't look at the Morning Lines until my handicap is set, nor do I find them very useful these days with the ever increasing takeout skewing the odds, but what it tells me is I didn't really identify any overlays. Sometimes boring means less volatility, less volatility means more predictability, more predictability with a larger field isn't a terrible thing for banging out low risk/OK ROI returns. Not sexy, but a cash bulge at the end of the day is always more sexy than not having dinner money.
I'm not going to spend too much time on video today. Only two horses enter off of a Graded Stake last time out, five come in off Col. Bradley $123K Handicap at Fairgrounds on 20 January. From a class perspective, this is a pretty similar group with just a few exceptions. Aw heck, lets look at video of those five.
FG; 18 Jan 2020; 1 1/16 Firm Turf. Col Bradley Handicap $123,000
I like Michael Stidham's Synchrony or Norm Casse's Dontblametherocket to win. I gave the edge to Dontblametherocket mostly because he won the Col Bradley here a month ago, has 5 wins in 8 FG starts, 11 of 13 lifetime in the moiney over grass and 4 wins in last seven starts. This is the gelded son of Blame's 2nd off layoff, a 26% Casse angle. They are very close, so Synchrony wins the Base Handicap but I have Dontblametherocket current form as the key driver.
Synchrony is 5 of 5 in the money at FG with 4 wins, 14 of 18 lifetime in the money over grass, 6 of 7 in the money at the distance and has 6 wins in last 15 starts. As I mentioned this is the 7 YO son of Tapit's first start since early October but training at FG since early January.
I'll be building an exact and I have to decide for sure but assuming I include my three "B" horses and possibly my B- group as Place. I don't want to over bet so we'll see.
My B group isn't overpowering but all have good trainer/jockey combos and all are the type of 5-6 year old veterans who hang around Place-Show-Exotic race in and race out. I'm not really sold on the order. Factor This conditioned by Brian Cox has early speed and Cox/Bridgmohan have won 30% of 50 races over past year at FG. Cox is outstanding on turf/routes and graded stakes. Bill Mott's Classic Covey is a 60K ish OC runner primarily with a career best 100 Beyer in a G2 in March 2018. Off since mid October. Midnight Tea Time has 12 Place/Show finishes in 17 turf starts. Could be coming at the end.
Sailing Solo, $100,000 Smart Strike colt has only won $102,000 in his five years. I see promise but no production. 7 of 7 in the money in 2019. Early Speed will flash like Col Bradley where he led before finishing 5th, 5 back. Extra 1/16th today, same jock. I dunno. Ontario Canada Bred Tone Broke is slow nut I always like to mention Fort Erie Prince of Wales runners. The 4 YO transitions from mostly dirt and is a huge wildcard. Bombs away candidate but don't bet the mortgage.
I think I'll assemble something like this:
2-5 OVER 2-5-4-12-6-11-8 a $2 bet for $24. Seems a bit pricey so I reserve right to reconsider and will post final bet in next blog.
And finally, the 52 Bets in 52 Weeks Series has another win in the Pegasus World Cup Turf on January 25. Recalling from my blog the bet:
"...So what to do with it? While it's not sexy, a $1 six horse boxed exacta of 12-2-3-10-11-1 for $30 should make money provided the top two horses on the tote board don't finish 1-2. " They finished 1-12 with Zulu Alpha at $11.80 to one winning over Magic Wand at $3.70 to one. I said I needed a $30 bet to be justified with some luck and we got it. The $1 exacta paid $88.30. The ROI for the year is 64% with $124 in Net winnings.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog. Our blog, now in its thirteenth year, focuses primarily on turf handicapping of the handicap division. Today's post is written primarily for the The ThoroFan and the Handicapper's Corner. The good people at The Thorofan have created the only nationwide fan- centric organization in the horse racing community. God knows this sport needs a few things, like a sense of community and relevance and joining The Thorofan will allow you to find like minded people who enjoy your passions too!
Who doesn't like a good "whodunit", the classic murder mystery. Handicapping is a lot like that. You have all the usual suspects, you have backstories, competing motivations, strangers in a strange land, and drama. The Pegasus Turf offers all these things. There is no real strong suspect, the race is held without race day medications being given (is it really so hard?), and you have a motley crew of veterans and up and comers. To me, turf racing epitomizes horse racing, a sentiment I know my fellow American's don't really embrace, but as the years go by for me, it's the sort of racing that offers good sized fields and lots and lots of intrigue, the proverbial "whodunit", or maybe more appropriately, who will do it.
I've found recent video on every horse in the field. I think its important to look closely at the Race Charts in concert with videos. It's very easy to brush through the PPs and see a horse hasn't won in three starts, but how many beaten lengths was he, what was the trip like, how impressive was the late turn of foot? The paper tells quite a bit of the story but the video brings it color and sound.
Breeders' Cup Turf G1: 2 November 2019; 1 1/2 Miles Firm SA
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1: 5 Oct 2019; 1 1/2 Miles Firm BEL
The Fort Lauderdale G2: 14 Dec 2019; 1 1/8 Miles Firm GP
The Sea Biscuit Handicap G2: 30 Nov 2019; 1 1/16 Miles Good Turf DMR
The Hollywood Derby G1: 30 Nov 2019; 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf DMR
Hong Kong Cup G1; 8 Dec 2019; 1 1/4 Miles Good Turf' Sha Tin (HK)
Breeders' Cup Mile G1; 2 Nov 2019; 1 Mile Firm Turf SA
Arlington Million G1; 10 Aug 2019; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf AP
It appears the weather will be dry. You can find the scratches and changes along with track conditions here. I'm handicapping expecting firm turf.
The mare, Magic Wand (Ire) just jumps off the paper in terms of pure class and ability. Look at the Hong Kong Cup video above and just watch her explosion in the last 1/8 of a mile as she comes out of traffic and surges. $4.1 MM in earnings. Only 3 wins in 22 turf starts. Only 1 win in 10 starts at this distance. Trainer Aiden O'Brien ouch: 0 of 24 starters last rolling year in Graded Stakes NA, 0 of 28 Turf Starters. With the bloodstock he has access to, that is staggering. I know its a challenging trip but wow.
I have a group of three after the Mare. Arklow is first back after Breeders' Cup, a 61-180 day layoff that trainer Cox does well with, 24% winners on 87 tries. 5 of 7 in the money in 2019 as a 5 YO but only one 1 win, a game Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at 1 1/2 mile. First GP start. 12 of 24 life time starts ended in Win-Place. Without Parole (GB) is first back off the Breeders' Cup Mile. The distance seems to be the biggest question for him although his breeding implies he should handle it, he is one of only two here with a Tomlinson Number >400. Chad Brown Trainee put up bullet 5f last week. No Wins in 3 starts in 2019. Mo Forza is a wildcard. 4 YO son of Uncle Mo should be faster than he's shown. Peter Miller's trainee has won four straight. 7 of 9 in the money over turf and the only other +400 Tomlinson Distance Rated Number in the field.
My exotic/show horse group is four deep and of that two I suspect are better than the other two. Sacred Life (Fr) is 11 of 13 Win-Place finishes lifetime. Chad Brown trainee. Game and gritty. Loses class battle and he's never seen a field like he will today. Late speed and effort could propel and long tote board odds make me consider him in back half of exacta. 7 YO Zulu Alpha first back from Breeders' Cup Turf. 5 straight 100+ Beyers. 10 of 18 in the money over past two years. 16 of 26 in the money over grass. Won at this distance here in March 2019. What you see is what you get. The same can be said for 7 YO Sadler's Joy. Trainer Albertrani skipped the Breeders' Cup and found a win in the G3 Red Smith at AQA in late November and now first time back. 18 of 26 in the money lifetime. Channel Cat is Todd Pletcher's lone entry. Trainer Pletcher was in a downturn last year around this time winning "only" about 22% of the time. That has slipped to 10% Graded Stakes wins in 129 starts over the rolling year. This 5 YO loses class but has enough intangibles to be considered in tickets.
For better or worse I'm tossing everyone else because you can't cover them all. I could have made a case for Next Shares in the exotic group, and Henley's Joy will get better but the water is deep here.
So what to do with it? While it's not sexy, a $1 six horse boxed exacta of 12-2-3-10-11-1 for $30 should make money provided the top two horses on the tote board don't finish 1-2. Even then, it should still pay about 2/3's the cost of the bet, sop gambling that the order and the value pops favorable may be the uncomplicated play.
Alternatively, I'm inclined to $1 exacta 12-2-3-10 OVER 12-2-3-10-11-1-4-5 for $28.
Final Alternative, I'll be watching Arklow closely. If he's 4-5 to 1 I may single and bet a few horses under him in exacta. Lots of options. Arklow may represent the safest Win bet. Cox is on top of his game and Brown's runners here aren't world beaters.
I'll be thinking about this right up to post when I get a look at the odds. A win bet on Mo Forza at the right price isn't out of the question.
The Turk began his 2020 handicapping challenge, entitled 52 bets in 52 Weeks. Through the first three weeks of 2020 the ROI sits at 40.6% with winnings of $227 on $162 dollars wagered. It's a small sample size, plenty of time for the Ol' Turk to screw the pooch. Last Week I took a shot on a race I knew I should have passed on, the Sunshine Millions Turf. As you can see, my base handicap was dead on but this was the result the betting public overwhelming picked. The straight trifecta I handicapped cold paid $3.65 on a $1 bet. Ugh. I bet an exacta hoping that someone other than Beautiful Lover would finish in Place. Close, but ultimately class prevailed. I turned $10 into $4.60. The stuff of legends.
Welcome Friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog. Whenever I see images like the one here, I think of the emotions of the horse player. When I use to be a more frequent, albeit never irresponsible, gambler, I would ride that roller coaster of emotion race to race, the highs, the lows, the incredulity, the shame, the guilt, the euphoria, wash, rinse repeat. That's the game.
I'm not going to tell you people don't make a living a professional gamblers, I know a few, but I am going to tell you, that's no way to live. It's straining, it's stressful, its downright soul crushing to ride that wave and risk it all, easier when its just you, harder when a little one depends on you for everything. The Turk took money out of the game years ago. I have a pot, but my race track investments are limited. I love to handicap, but it's been many years since I gambled with any materiality. I work a job that requires seriousness and professionalism, and above all else, fiduciary integrity. Nothing shouts louder "don't tryst me with money" than being the office horse player. The real reason I went cold turkey is I found I just enjoyed the game more without the stress of money, and I kept statistics. Stats, that dirty little word that gives quantifiable data to you about how the game is really treating you. Sometimes people will ask The 'Ol Turk why the Morning Line odds don't add up to 100%. These aren't horse players mind you, just normal people. The easiest and most honest answer for me is that the 30% or so above 100% those odds add up to is the the difference between the game making a living or you making a living. The takeout is just too damn high and it leaves very little room for error in gambling. With the takeout, and Stats, I realized I was skilled enough as a handicapper to carve out a positive ROI, but I had to play and play alot. Not for me. So I used the stats to hone in on where my best ROI came from. It was obvious to me, the low hanging fruit, wasn't what I was good at, but what I was taking a killing on. I was downright atrocious on the Triple Crown prep races and even worse on 2 YOs. I cut those races out of my betting palate. Next, I realized I was really bad on 1 1/2 mile distances any surface as well as 6.5F or less any surfaces. I cut those out. I was really poor at a few tracks and eliminated those. The exercise showed me what I was good at handicapping, but the corollary was I found it also showed me what about horse racing I liked the most: 4 YO and Up, primarily Turf racing. My ROI is pretty good, good enough to bet consistently, not good enough to bet Little Turk's tuition.
I conceived this year's blog theme to be 52 Bets in 52 Weeks, a small sample size of what a handicapper with over 35 years experience can do and document it, good bad or ugly. So far so good as both week's Base Handicaps produced winning results. While I did not place an actual bet in Week 1, I did yesterday. Why? I thought the race was an honest to goodness no brainer. 7 horse field, no scratches, three horse were given no chance by me nor did they get a chance on the tote board. The only downside? The top four were all bet down pretty hard, especially the winner. With a little luck the Win-Place are reversed and the 4-1 finishes over the 2-1, but that's OK. I bet and bet big when I see no brainer's, $10 exacta for $120. Now, my eye after 35 years doing this will or may be different than yours, so in the words of Han Solo, don't get cocky kid and start to see no brainer's everywhere.
Through two Weeks, The Turk has won $71.20 net of my total investment of $152 with a return on investment of 136%. Don't get use to it. I'm still predicting that I'll take a big pile of twenty's and turn it into a smaller pile of twenty's when 2020 is concluded, but also remember the sample size of 52 is pretty small. Actual bets will always be supported by records and when I don't make actual bets we will use the theoretical ones made in the Blog Post as well a $2 Exacta based on my Base Handicap described in the footnotes of my chart below.
The 'Ol Turk's Twin Spire Account
I'll be back this week with more Turf running from the handicap division. Turk out!
Andina Del Sur (Chestnut Mare) : Elsa Lorieul Photo Credit
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.
Like many things in life, horse racing is as divided into cliques and social groupings. I belong to what people a Tout.
tout1
/tout/
verb
1.
attempt to sell (something), typically by pestering people in an aggressive or bold manner.
"Jim was touting his wares"
2.
NORTH AMERICAN
offer racing tips for a share of any resulting winnings.
noun
1.
a person soliciting custom or business, typically in an aggressive or bold manner.
2.
NORTH AMERICAN
a person who offers racing tips for a share of any resulting winnings.
While I'm not a big fan of being called a "tout" it closely fits the definition per the Oxford Dictionary. The key difference? I'm not offering advice for part of the winnings. I'm not a Pink, Yellow Sheet, etc etc. I offer my handicaps and bet constructions on random races for pure pleasure and enjoyment. Call me a tout if you like, but I'd prefer horse racing fan and hack handicapper!
Lets get after this race today, a 1 1/16 Mile turf event at Gulfstream for 4 YO and up Fillies and Mares.
Lets start as always with a little applicable video handicapping.
29 Nov 2019; AQA. 1 1/16 Miles good Turf. Forever Together $150K
Get a look at Andina Del Sur and Sweet Bye and Bye
14 December 2019; GP 1 Mile firm Turf. My Charmer $100K
Very solid race from deep traffic for Munchkin Money for Show.
19 December 2019; GP 1 Mile good Turf. OC25k.
Solid run by Malkia for owner/trainer Laura Cazares
I think the wild card is Magic Star. On a class basis, she wins before the race begins. 4 YO daughter of Scat Daddy. Trained by Chad Brown with I Ortiz Jr. Up, a 29% win combo at GP. Last raced 26 October,. Brown wins 23% off 61-180 day layoffs. Only third start of her career but if she can figure it out this year, wow what upside. She'll need to show real maturity with this group.
Can't say I had very different feelings than the morning line, as you can see I most tracked similar thoughts with possible exception of being less bullish on Sweet Bye and Bye and Maroubra (Fr).
I'm expecting a workmanlike Andina Del Sur to be workmanlike Nothing fancy for the 5 YO Giant's Causeway, 11 of 17 in the money on Turf, 5 of 8 in the money lifetime at the distance, zero wins in five GP starts, ouch, but she's has 4 of 5 in the money at GP.
I like Munchkin Money and her resilience. 7 YO trained by Clement isn't the fastest or the classiest, but a nice late turn of foot. 2 wins in 3 GP starts, the NY bred should be in the money.
Sweet Bye and Bye is productive: 5 of 6 in the money 2019, 11 of 13 in the money lifetime, but tossing two off the turf dirt affairs,. this mare finishes 11 of 11 in the money. 7 of 7 in the money over turf. 5-2 Morning Line, I'm not sure I am that impressed but she's good. Her and Adina Del Sur will be battling in third straight race. Trainer Klesaris is winless in two Graded Stakes in past rolling year.
I most likely will look at a few Exacta's; a 5-7-3-4 $2 exacta is worth $24, too rich really for a budget gambler looking for value. Something possibly like 4-5 OVER 2-3-4-5-7 $2 exacta for $16 might be my taste, or Adina Del Sur and Sweet Bye and Bye boxed and over Magic Star and Munchkin Money.
The base handicap was pretty darn good. The interesting thing was how little Desert Stone was respected on the tote board, going off 7-1, 5th best in the field of 7.
I swung for the fences a bit by placing Overdue on top of a win bet and exacta. That was a $16 overall losing bet. Betting my Base Handicap would have been a much better exercise as that returned $44.20 on a $2/$16 bet.
