The Kentucky Derby Standings and Race by Race Results

"....and they're off!"  

With this weekend's Stake Races, the Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes, we will have come to the end of the prime point gathering races. The standings are below as well as a race by race look at the action. Over the next three weeks the Turk is going to go back over the last several prep races, complete video analysis, and we'll watch the workout tabs very closely. The Turk was humbled and honored to be given the Kentucky Derby to handicap for the Handicapper's Corner at The Thorofan, and I tell you right now we have two key targets, The Oaks-Derby Double and the Super High Five. Two bets, two handicaps, a centerpiece day in my handicapping year and I love the challenge.

In case you missed it, I posted all of the Championship Series race videos and it can be found here.

Have fun handicapping friends. Keeneland, it must be spring! Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In : The 138th Kentucky Derby Part 1

Life is precious and short, and you never really know how much time you have left. To me, the Kentucky Derby is a celebration of life, an annual renewal to the true believers in the sport, a reminder of what was, and a message of what could be.

I treasure the Derby and I love talking to people not that familiar with the sport because, well, as a sport we have a real fan base problem, and it's the only way we are going to bring fans back. Yesterday, The Turk Clan hosted a Kentucky Oaks Day party. The house was alive with horse talk and when the race was run the room became electric with interest and excitement. To my friends that are fully engaged in horse racing year round I'll preach to the choir, embrace these Kentucky Derby folks. While the irons hot start starting Preakness. On Memorial Day get your family gathered around for the Met Mile. Talk to them about Saratoga, a festival of top quality racing. Plan a Breeders' Cup party. Have a laptop and take bets on your Twinspires account. Engage people and the horses do the rest.

This is part one of my Kentucky Derby analysis. There will only be a part 2 if i have something to add or if something changes in my thinking, and if it does, I'll repost by 5:45.

One nice thing about handicapping the Derby is by this point in their three year old careers, these animals are close to known quantities. Some of them have yet to show the potential in races, but talent and potential has been revealed. I focus my handicapping on what I can measure, either visually or in a previous performance. I take into account morning work but do not assign too much in the overall quotient to it. I establish ranges, which I display in color and with letter grades. I'm an exotics bettor, and on most days I bet vertically and horizontally through the card, meaning I bet Pick 3 and Pick 4 which is the winners of multiple races in a row as well as individual races where I pick winners and sometimes as many as the top four, or on big days, five finishers. I'm a horse fan first and a bettor a distant second. I have no qualms handicapping and not betting and don't get sucked into the thought that you need to have some action, skin in the game, to enjoy it. You do not. Embrace the people and the animals on a layer deeper than "3 horse, 8 horse" and think about Scat Daddy winning the Florida Derby and now being an emerging leading sire. Ask yourself who is Doctor Hansen? Read about Michael Matz and his bravery and compare him to the affable Bob Baffert. You don't need the action, the characters, both two and four legged, are pretty interesting all on their own.

For those of you needing a 1-800-Hammer moment, let's get after it!



I'm assembling multiple bet combinations from this Base Handicap. The issue I have, which I have to sort out, are my bubble horses, from Dullahan down to I'll have Another. It's my opinion those five horses are the key to the Superfecta and Super High Five. I'll ramble more in the post race analysis about what I was thinking with my Base Handicap, I don't want to dwell too much right now or I may start flip flopping. As for who's going to win? I don't have a clue but I like the two favorites and any of my A or B horses have a good shot.

I'm still alive in the Oaks-Derby Double. The Appleton Turk cousins helped build that Double bet and a special Turk prayer goes to to her and her family as a family member battles to regain her health.



Have fun, Turk Out!

The Kentucky Oaks-Kentucky Derby Double

One of my favorite types of fun bets is a double spread across two days, and to me the best ones are the Oaks-Derby Double as well as the Blackeyed Susan-Preakness Double.

The Ol' Turk is looking for some value, but even betting favorites who are at 4-1 still has value. I've narrowed my bet pool down to 4 in the Oaks and 6 in the Derby, with an eye towards value with a few of my Derby choices. A $2 box of this is worth $48 bucks, a fair bet for what could be nice reward.



Nothing fancy, just fun, especially if Friday goes as planned.

I'll be making Mint Juleps in a few hours, back door guests are welcome

Turk out!

The Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll Final Edition 2012

Pencils down folks! We've analyzed, we've tweeked, we've tweezed, dissected, bisected, rambled about, pontificated over, looked at pace scenarios, studied video, groused over foaming, sweating, gallup outs, breezes, fake dirt, layoffs, jocks, yada yada, yada.

Friends, it's the Kentucky Derby, it's one and one quarter miles long, longer than any of them have ever run before. Some of them want to run that far, some of them don't. Some will rabbit to the front and you'll think you that longshot is going to make you rich, but inevitably he will hit a wall and horses sitting just off the pace will start to surge forward. There will be a few that have one big run in them. From the blimp shot this will be an awe inspiring thing, as they weave through traffic like a Porsche amongst Yugos.

I'd love to tell you who's going to win but I can't. in fact nobody can. Not pink sheets, white sheets, celebrity handicappers, player services, nobody. What a good handicapper can do is give you is a range of possibles. I'm a range handicapper, I segregate the horses into groups, assemble bets based on these ranges and, well, hope for the best. My advice to new players is always the same: Handicap lots of races, assemble win and exacta bets, bet little. Learn what works and what doesn't by analysis. Sometimes it will be obvious in hindsight, and sometimes you just have to say, ehh, what the heck.

It's been my pleasure writing about and grading the Kentucky Derby contenders over the past several months. The Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll team is a salty bunch. You can learn quite a bit from them individually, much more than you will reading mainstream media writers. I hope you enjoyed our rankings as much as we did doing it. I'll be back tomorrow with Oaks/Derby selections.

Turk Out!

Handicappers Homework: Decoding the Derby Contenders

It's hard not to get excited about the Kentucky Derby. To people who are heavily invested in this sport, and I'll only speak for myself, I love seeing Derby coverage in the mainstream media as well as excitement build with horse racing civilians. As a blogger, I make new readers and new friends every year that I do this; I like to think that this is because I'm friendly, easy to approach, and don't have alot of fancy jargon's and metrics tied to my handicapping.

At this point in the season, the three year olds are starting to show us what they have. These are not the blank sheets of paper we handicapped last year during the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, no no no, these horses now have a resume, and these sort of resumes are best watched, not read. To my new friends and new readers, do yourself a favor, stop reading and just watch some video on these animals. Pay attention to the last 12 to 24 seconds of the race, watch which horses are extending their strides and which ones are contracting. Watch which horses pull even with other horses, do the pass them, do they get close and not pass them, is this a pattern in their other races.

Ignore most of what you read, including bald idiot handicappers like the ol' Turk. Go to DRF.com and watch the clockers reports. The best handicappers in America are not writing the articles in the mainstream press, even the mainstream horse racing press. Fluff and human interest stuff sells papers but it doesn't give you a clue about who will win the Derby. Try a few blogging sites where you will find some really sharp folks. For you newbies, try Hello Race Fans! as well as horse racing blog aggregate sites like Race Wire 360. The 'Ol Turk is a proud member of a fantastic group of writers at Turf as well as The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance.

I think it's pointless to do too much handicapping before you know the post position draw and what the weather seems to be shaping up as. With a basic idea of how the race may unfold I have broken down the 20 horses into three groups: Horses with a chance to Win, Place, Show or be in Superfecta or Super High Five, Horses with a chance to be in the Top 10 and Horses I've tossed out of consideration. The last group is most assuredly where you will find this year's winner!

Group 1: Union Rags, Bodemeister, Daddy Nose Best, Gemologist and I'll Have Another
Group 2: Hansen, Creative Cause, Alpha, Take Charge Indy, Went the Day Well, Dullahan, Rousing Sermon
Group 3: Daddy Long Legs, Liason, El Padrino, Prospective, Trinniberg, Optimizer, Done Talking, Sabercat

Anyway, watch the videos, it won't take long, and spot for yourself a winner.

Have fun with it. The Turk will be back tomorrow with the final edition of the Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll and Friday Morning we will have our Oaks/Derby Double selections ready to go. turk out!

Breeders'Cup Juvenile 2011



Arkansas Derby 2012



Santa Anita Derby 2012



Florida Derby 2012



Wood Memorial 2012



UAE Derby 2012



Sunland Derby 2012



Blue Grass Stakes 2012



Spiral Stakes 2012



Tampa Bay Derby 2012



Cash Call Futurity 2011

The Wireplayers Dirty Derby Dozen Final Poll 2011

DJ, cue Waltzing Matilda. The Wire Players Derby Dozen Pool has reached their final opinions for 2011. I say farewell to Brian, Rob and Geno and Derek, so long to Carly, Brian and Jessica, see you soon to Tony Bada Bing, Ten Cent and Dylan and fair winds and following seas to the Falcon of horse racing, Steve.

The Turk loves the sport of horse racing and never tires from trying to spread the gospel of Ruffian, Hard Spun, Turkoman and Commentator. It's folks like these in the Derby Dozen Poll that bring passion and energy to our sport, and as long as we have that, we have hope. We also have the equine: Never asks to be a free agent, works hard, sacrifices, seeks glory for sportsmanship sake, sometimes gives the ultimate sacrifice in the name of our entertainment. Forget the idiot professional football players who can't keep their twitter accounts or thier other twitters in thier zippers and embrace the horse.



The Turk is planning on handicapping a fast main track for Saturday with soft turf for the ones on green. I like Archarcharch and Mucho Macho Man but the heavy capping begins tonight.

Have fun friends. Turk Out!