Post Race Analysis for Race Day October 16, 2010: The Woodbine Late Pick Four Canadian International Day

The Turk and his sidekick, The Little Turk, have almost 15,000 reasons to smile after today's Late Pick 4 at Woodbine today. I'll be celebrating with a carmel colored cashmere top coat from Jos. A Bank and the Little Turk gets a new Itunes gift card. Mama Turk, well she gets anything she wants.

The Turk preaches modesty, as this game humbles even the best of handicappers regularly, and there is a big difference between celebrating and bragging. I hope this blog entry, while gleaming of celebration, is not interpreted as bragging. So much went right, so much else could have happened, and the results are truly a reflection of an approach I've been developing for nearly twenty years of handicapping. Let's get after it friends!

It's amazing how slowly I complete a post race analysis when I lose compared to when I win, but the one thing I always do is break down my betting effort, good, bad, and often ugly. As I was just saying two weeks ago after another good effort, I prepare my DRF Formulator PP's devoid of morning lines and I eschew pre race hype. Why? It influences me, and with races that are heavy with European runners, that sort of influence really throws me off. After I handicapped I went back and looked at the Morning Lines just to see how we lined up and I wasn't surprised I had a bit of a contrarian view overall. When you handicap and make your picks public, even with a very lightly read blog like this one, you never really want to be embarrassed. The temptation is to follow conventional wisdom and fall in line with what the talking heads are predicting. You've got to learn to not worry about what others think and you have to do your own thinking. No shortcuts.

Woodbine Race 8-9-10-11 Pick Four



The post race analysis told me I was really dialed in today, so much so I think I left behind an equal amount of money that I won still on the table. I try to avoid that type of thinking, that concept of what I woulda-shoulda-coulda did.

In Race 8, The Nearctic, I backed tepidly Amico Fritz (Ger) to win. He had a hard time crossing the Maginot Line in this one, but I had Grand Adventure and Fatal Bullet straight in the Place and Show spots and I had Field Commission and Serious Attitude(Ire) in the Triactor box to take $3,366.10 on a $48 box. A great way to start the day. As I said pre race as well, I was taking four horses in the Pick 4 no matter what and I needed my fourth.

In Race 9, The E.P. Taylor, I pretty much had the top six exact in what was a pretty straight forward affair. I correctly downgraded a horse I am partial too, Mekong Melody (Ire) and placed Miss Keller (Ire) properly above Shalanaya (Ire) and Contredanse(Ire), and had Reggane (GB) fourth while the betting public tabbed him for 6th. The same $48 dollar boxed Triactor this time grossed $526.50 for me. Still alive in the Pick 4 after two.

Race 10, The Canadian International, I had a darn fine handicap with the exception of Mores Wells (GB) flying into the blanket finish. That's racing, and I was correct in downgrading Marsh Side, Simmard, and Fifty Proof, all fine horses, from the top 4. Alive after three after including the Joshua Tree (Ire), the bettors third choice.

Race 11 was a $12,500 maiden claimer that made my head hurt handicapping, but no sense in spending $144 dollars on a Pick 4 bet just to screw up the maiden claimer. I identified three horses, with Disclosure winning as the bettor's second choice.

As I've been trying to illustrate pre race, there are many different ways to approach these multi race bets, with my method being to identify a bet risk I'm willing to take and cut it off there. My Facebook friends know I've been noddling on these races since Thursday morning and I had a $300 budget for the weekend. I built a 4 X 4 X 3 X 3 selection for the Pick Four and could have used almost my entire budget on a $2 bet but I instead placed it for $1. At $144 I was quite pleased to pocket $11,099.55 and I'm doing my best to avoid thinking about what I had planned to be a $2 bet. By staying at $144 I had enough room to place boxed Triactor Bets on the three main races, nearly placing Super bets that would have paid a bundle, but if I'm anything friends, I'm a very disciplined bettor.

Handicapping is an odd mixture of math, pattern prediction, art and feel. I reject the notion that the results are best predicted by computers analyzing pace and heavily modified speed figures. A red gel pen, DRF Past Performances with workouts embedded, fractional times, jockey and trainer stats, and some limited analysis is all I really need, no pre race hype and most definitely no morning lines, track handicappers, celebrity handicappers, bloggers, anyone. I love to read all of that, but after I've committed. A new tool I'm really utilizing is a Ipad App from Equibase that allows me to quickly get information and view video of specific races. Just incredible what information we have available to us now, it's important to keep it all in perspective that in these horse events, the same things happen over and over and over again.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: October 16, 2010; The Woodbine Late Pick Four on Canadian International Day

In horse racing we remember tradition. While we may have inserted corporate names in front of our famous race names, we have, for the most part, resisted forgetting the past. E.P. Taylor is a man who should never be forgotten, and his influence in North American racing is almost impossible to underestimate. His stallion, Northern Dancer, has left a legacy of influence not only in North America but also Europe, as the Sire of Great Sires and we remember him constantly at this blog through our respect for Storm Cat, Deputy Minister, El Prado, and Danehill.

The four race series I've selected today are not for the faint of heart but that's why we call this gambling. Let's get after it!

Woodbine Race 8-11


When you handicap turf racing at the highest level in North America, you have more homework to do than usual. You will be faced with horses who have never raced in North America, placed on drugs that help with bleeding but also give a good boost to performance, with past performances that deny you the type of information you are use to having, and then the people factors: Why did the connections send this horse? What are they thinking? Is he better than it shows on paper? Did he race better left handed or right handed? Was there a significant performance difference over different turf conditions? You really need to watch the big Grade I races and get a feel for how these races are contested. The Turk loves dirt and embraces it as the surface of American horse racing tradition. That said, I love the grass and the challenge of handicapping these races, with big fields, lumbering fractional times and smoking hot final 1/8 miles.

As always, start your homework with track conditions and scratches/changes. With turf, it's often the weather over the past several days you have to consider, so hunt for the best information you can find.

Race 8 is the Nearctic, 6 furlongs on the turf and returns last year winner, Field Commission. Winless in six starts in 2010 and he adds blinkers today. The Turk's very tepid chalk is Amico Fritz (Ger). With Mike Smith, up, the Grade II winner to me represents good value and a legitimate shot. Serious Attitude is a 4 YO filly with Gomez up and taking lasix for the first time should be even longer and a little less live, but still intriguing. Fatal Bullet and Grand Adventure will give honest efforts and Bridgetown will attract bettors interests but I'm looking elsewhere.

This is a pretty solid field of runners and I will back four in this race and hope to be alive coming out of this first race when I'm done. Dubious, but that's the plan!

Race 9 is the E.P. Taylor, a 1 1/4 mile turf affair with 10 starters that also returns last year's winner at 44-1, Lahaleeb (Ire). Two stronger home track runners are here from the Roger Attfield stable, Mekong Melody (Ire) and Miss Keller (Ire). They are faced with a very strong contingent of European runners led by Shalanya (Ire), Reggane (GB) and Contredanse (Ire) . I'm backing Miss Keller, the winner of the Grade II Canadian at 1 1/8 miles over a good Woodbine turf track one month ago. Attfield is clipping along at 29% winners of Won Last Start runners and he has Castellano up. Arkarlina (Fr) is a Grade III winner who may be peaking.

In the big event, the Grade I Canadian International, I'm expecting the bettors chalk, Redwood (GB) will continue to impress. Winner of the Grade I Northern Dancer on firm turf at 1 1/2 miles here one month earlier, if he keeps his form he'll need it as he's facing a more impressive group here. He'll be pressed by Grade I winning Chinchon (Ire), who shocked me with his very impressive turn of foot over firm Monmouth turf in the Grade I United Nations. A very impressive "Zenyatta like" swing wide to the outside from dead last at the top of the stretch and just bury everyone. He's bouncing back off a dull race in France on soft going in September. Al Khali and Marsh Side are both honest horses who will run solid but I expect them to be near the bottom or off any tickets. Joshua Tree (Ire) is slightly intriguing and you have to wonder why he's here and what he's capable of and the Attfield runner, Simmard is running his second off a longer than 180 day layoff and looked sharp coming back against Al Khali and Winchester at 1 3/8 on firm Belmont turf.

The Pick Four ends for me with a $12,500 Maiden Claimer. The 13 and 14 horses, Hazards of Love and Disclosure with Da Silva and Husbands up, offer a chance to take chalk and keep the Pick Four bet size a bit smaller, and the 9, Danish Spirit, represents some good value.

Tough races for sure. Build your own handicaps, read drivel like this only after you make your own tickets up, and above all else, have fun handiguessing the best sport on earth. Turk out!