Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 1, 2010: The Oceanport and Haskell Daily Double at Monmouth Park

This Turk took the month of July off from blogging. My five readers wondered what I was up to, at least I like to think one of them did, and what started as just a break to recharge the batteries turned into deconstruction of my handicapping and bet construction tendencies. Self analysis has always been something I believed made me better and I have always been a big fan of quality handicapping and post race analysis trumping quantity.

As any handicapper can attest, the race is always easier to predict after its raced. OK Turk, WTF do you mean? I mean, post race I take the race chart, watch a replay if I can find one, and let the race unfold backwards from the finish to the starting gate. I study the race within the race to spot horses with strong quarters that had bad trips along the way and I study my pre race handicap and see where I got it right and where I got it wrong. There are some races you just throw out and don't lose sleep over. Two weeks ago I stood at the rail and watched Golden Moka beat a very talented Big Red Mike and another strong runner Hotep in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie. This horse hadn't been past 5.5 furlongs and went out and shocked these route runners. Hard to fathom from the past performances.

Most of the time, most of the time, when I look at the race chart and then look at my handicap, I can see clearly what I did or what I should have seen pre race. That's what I mean, if you are going to be successful, you have to be able to look post race and make sense of it from the past performances. I digress.

I was successful this weekend because I built a good base handicap, I worked my base handicap, and my bet construction stayed true to my base handicap and I didn't over spend and under produce.

Also digressing, the above picture is Looking at Lucky meeting Cocco Puff. Very cute! Alright, let's get after it.



I wasn't that emotionally wrapped up with the results of either of these races, another good key that I sometimes struggle with. In both races I identified what I thought was the best two horses, Looking at Lucky and Get Serious, discounted them into second place and chalked the two horses I thought were at a good point in their training form and poised to strike mild upsets, Trappe Shot and Violon Sacre. It didn't happen but it doesn't mean the thought process was flawed and if I don't mind saying so myself, the bet construction addressed it perfectly.

The Daily Double bet was a simple 2 picks by 2 picks valued at $2 for an $8 total bet. It would have been a much better payout had the order been flipped, but not enough to retire on.

I had the exactas in both races as well, boxing my base handicap top two entries. My boss is a CPA who also holds an MBA. He taught me to never negotiate against myself when dealing with a counterparty. The concept is pretty simple; I offer you $5,000 for your used car, we talk for awhile and you tell me how good the stereo is and before you counter offer me I'm telling you I'll pay $6,000 for it. In this case, I have a base handicap I believe in, so why place too many contradictory bets; If I have a horse fifth in the bas handicap he shouldn't be part of my bet matrix in the superfecta in the Win or Place spots.

This thinking paid off with the Haskell bet and almost hit in the Oceanport. Taking my base handicap, I boxed the Win and Place horses, and then for horses 3-5 I boxed them for Show and 4th. Both bets were constructed identically for a five horse matrix that cost $24 dollars for a $2 super ticket. I cashed nicely on the Haskell and overall I did well for 1 hours work.

I had a line in my pre race analysis that I ultimately erased. It said that Looking at Lucky was the best three year old in the United States right now. I believed that before the race but I was hesitant to say it so boldly. I am most impressed by the way he trains on poly and then ships and looks great on dirt. If he races as a four year old I'd love to see him on turf, and the son of Smart Strike has a decent enough Tomlinson number you would think this horse could win a Grade I on all three surfaces. We could use more of that in the gene pool. I don't want to praise Lucky by knocking the rest of the class of 2010, what some may call mediocrity may just be parity. I'm leaning toward mediocrity but that doesn't mean Looking at Lucky isn't a very good, short of great, horse. The pairing with M. Garcia is unfortunate for Go-Go, but Gomez is a wildly good rider who didn't really give Baffert much of a choice.

Sister Turk and I had a wonderful day at the Spa on Saturday, taking in the Jim Dandy and the Diana. I bet A Little Warm, a horse I liked all spring, who I think can give Looking at Lucky a good run at the Travers. The thing about this group of three year olds is that I'm not sure all of them don't need just the right pace scenario and then just the right trip to win. Nobody is going out there four wide at the top of the stretch and winning on overwhelming talent. Don't be surprised to see Golden Moka crash the Travers party this year and who the hell knows what a win by him would mean for this crazy Eclipse Award category.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 1, 2010: The Monmouth Park Late Daily Double including the Oceanport and the Haskell

That fine looking gentleman to the left is none other then Super Saver, the reigning Kentucky Derby champion. He's brought his beach blanket to the New Jersey shoreline to take on a nice field of 3 YO's freshened up after the grueling Triple Crown season, as well as a member of their generation who skipped the springtime silliness and is the Turk's chalk today to upset the more recognizable names, Trappe Shot.

The Turk's just back from Saratoga where he watched the Jim Dandy Stakes yesterday, allegedly the traditional Travers Stakes prep race; this one sure seems like the prep with the bigger prize to me. Ok, let's go!

Monmouth Park Race 11/12 Late Daily Double: The Grade 3 Oceanport and the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational, post time 5:04 ET.


The first thing you note when looking over the past performances is the quality of the fields in these two races. Starting with the Oceanport, it's always nice to see a returning champion as we have with Get Serious, but it's also nice to see a fixture of a man back with him, Trainer John Forbes. We wish him well and he has a legitimate chance to return to a winners circle he has known well for over 4 decades.

Trainer Biancone brings two runners into the race and I'm partial to Violon Sacre with J. Lezcano up. A sharp 1 mile effort on firm Monmouth turf in early July with a nice late turn of foot, 9 of 11 lifetime in the money on turf for the 5 YO. Far from heavy chalk but very capable.

Get Serious has had two nice Monmouth firm turf efforts already since late May, both low 100 BSF's, before running out of steam after leading the 2.5 furlong longer Grade I United Nations. Six wins in last nine starts, the six year old NYS bred gelding will go to the post as the bettors top choice and he'll be on all my tickets in one of the top two spots.

R. Dominguez is up for Trainer Motion on Cherokee Artist. An uneven runner, I'm looking at his past performances and I'm keying on some solid turf efforts in 2010 and ignoring the ones I don't like (the fickle red pen of the Turk). I'm looking at this last three race progression that ended with a 103 BSF and a strong second at GP at 1 mile on turf. The 5 YO comes in off a 99 BSF 100K optional Claimer win on firm turf at 1 1/16 miles. Not hard to see the results are possible at a decent price.

Strike a Deal is the best of my middle tier of challengers which includes Nownownow and Whatsthescript.

In the headlining event, a top shelf collection of three year olds competes for $1 Million Dollars in what has become the early Mid Summer Derby, the Grade I Haskell. Many of these horses are making their return to the track after being freshened up after the Triple Crown races; In the field only one horse has run in July and only one horse enters with two straight 100+ BSF, Trappe Shot, the Turk's choice to again reiterate that no one three year old has done much to establish himself as the best of the best since Eskendereya imploded months ago.

This would be a big step up for Trappe Shot who began his current two race string on Belmont Stakes day in an N1X Allowance affair. Trainer McLaughlin, with A. Garcia up, have clipped away at 57% winners at Monmouth and the sone of Tapit will have to stretch out another 1/16 of a mile to a distance his Tomlinson rating (416, second to Afleet Again's 430) tells us he should be comfortable with. He ran steady fractions last time out and finished with a strong :30.36 for the last 5/16's. 4 wins in 4 starts in 2010. Hmmmmm.

Looking at Lucky is a darn good horse who has had some bad trips in his 3 YO campaign and he's been a very good 2 for 2 on fast dirt including the Grade 1 Preakness. He's been training very sharply for Baffert at Del Mar with a smokin' :58 3/5ths at 5 furlongs in his last work before shipping. M. Garcia keeps the mount and wouldn't be surprised to see a strong performance which would help clear up the 3 YO picture.

Ice Box and Super Saver are pretty darn good too and should be placed forward within the tickets. First Dude and wild card Our Dark Knight will be on the edge of the exotic plays.

As always check the weather and the scratches/changes and track condition as you approach post time. The hour by hour forecast shows that there could be significant precipitation an hour or so before race 11 goes to post at 5:04 ET. It creates problems for any handicapper, but that's why this is considered gambling. Trappe Shot has run very well in slop and has a race best 438 Wet Track Tomlinson but Super Saver could advance higher on the ticket if the track gets downgraded.

I'll be hunting for the Daily Double with no more than a 2 X 3 selection matrix and more than likely 2 X 2. 10 cent supers are in fashion and we'll be looking to have some fun after ending our self imposed blogging break in July when I handicapped my arse off in private to sharpen up for the back half of the season.

Have fun, Turk Out!