The Nomination Is In: The (imposter) Arlington Million at Colonial Downs

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I handicap (mostly) older horses, (mostly) running over routes of grass and I build exactas (almost always) from the information.  I believe in the following core principles:  Last speed is better than early (mostly), Older Horses give you more data and more predictability (mostly), Class matters (almost always), bet against favorites (60% of the time they lose) (almost always), build a base handicap that isn't your bet but is the best horses with best chance to win (everytime), build and adjust odds so you can compare to fair odds table (always), have fun, don't take yourself too seriously, and stay humble (forever).  

Now that I bared my soul to you, let me say I hate that they call these races Arlington anything.  Arlington, to me, the most beautiful track, with an incredible turf course, that truly attracted top European talent, was destroyed by greed and the poor leadership within the track ownership community.  Don't insult my intelligence with this BS.  While I'm happy they actually have a purse of $1.0 MM still, remember in 1981 dollars when this race started, that $1.0 MM is now worth $3.54 MM.  The race hasn't progressed  and that's why, along with other reasons, it's a poor excuse of a G1.  That's The Turk's two cents, I generally don't get into such weighty subjects, but there you go.

My son and I made many trips to Arlington over the last decade.  Those are memories I will always cherish.  I've told my backstory and my connection to the Arlington fire of 1985 before and you can find it in this link.  This track closure hurt because it was done because of terrible state leadership and the pursuit of slot revenue, terrible track ownership and apathy.  When you lose the good things in life they seldom come back.

Anyways, lets get back to the handicapping. I've been experimenting with AI lately.  While very rudimentary, I upload the PDF of the Past Performance to ChatGPT and build charts of data I like to see and compile generally by hand  (Tomlinsons, Beyers, Early and Late Timeform, Class by number of Stakes Wins).  It speeds things up for me. Next I will figure out how to automate to make the process quicker and repeatable.  I'd love to incorporate more API data into what I do but I won't pay the crazy prices for DataStream access the monopolies over this sport demand.  If anyone has an idea and wants to collaborate, let me know.

The weather should be dry and hot so assume Firm Turf.  Colonial Downs is a fairly lame website, look for scratches and changes and track condition here.  

8 June 2025; SAR; The Manhattan G1; 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf

 

19 July 2025; Mth; The United Nations G2; 1 3/8 Miles on firm Turf

17 May 2025; Pim; The Dinner Party G3; 1 1/8  miles on Good Turf.

17 June 2025; Ascot (GB); The Queen Anne Stakes G1; 1 Mile on "Good to Firm" turf.  

What to do with all of this?  I like Integration a lot here:  9 of 14 in Turf Exactas, 4 of 4 in Colonial Exactas.  Training very sharply over turf at Saratoga including a bullet :46 4/5ths at 4f with 51 others that day.  Feels right with a 5 YO son of Quality Road running well in Virginia.  Mr. Evans smiles. 

I'm going to bet that he finishes no better than Place.  Fort Washington, Cairo and Grand Sonata OVER Fort Washington, Cairo, Grand Sonata and Integration, a $2 exacta for $18.  

Sometimes the best bet is the one you don't make.  Vesting, who I didn't think could possibly win, just scratched.  a seven horse race now, and Vesting leaving doesn't change the pace consideration for me (poor early speed, mid late).  

If anything I'm less inclined to bet $18.  Try Fort Washington, Cairo and Grand Sonata OVER Integration, a $2 Bet for $6.  Mid value/low risk. 

I don't love this race, gamble wisely.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The $200,000 Turf Classic at Santa Anita

Unusual Heat

 Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 16th calendar year.  That handsome fella is Unusual Heat, the most accomplished sire in the State of California at the time of his death in 2017.  While he sired the Acclamation, he also sired many others including one I always enjoyed, the Unusual Q.T. You've been handicapping a long time when you see the names of their grandsires and remember betting them.  Such is life.                                                                                                                                                                                     Today we are handicapping the $200,000 CA State Restricted  Unusual Heat Turf Classic, run at 1 1/8 miles over the grass.  Santa Anita kept the races off the turf Friday to keep the track good for today.  I'm not sure what the turf conditions will be, but I'm expecting no worse than good but we'll see.  

The Morning line field of 9 was reduced to 8, with what most likely would have been the post time favorite, The Chosen Vron, defecting to Race 1's Cal Cup Sprint.  That leaves a wonky group that isn't quite much better than $75K allowance Class.  That's OK, we don't handicap who isn't here, just who's running.  Let's get it on!

This will be a race I may not bet, it really depends on where the action goes pre race as I just don't see much overlay potential.  I have my top two with 67% chance of winning.  I'm an exacta player, so someone other than those two winning would make the payout spicier, and if both finished no higher than Show, I'd be onto something.  Aligato has late race speed and class, winning this event one year previously.  Along layoff had the 6 YO gelded Kitten's Joy return in late October and again in late November.   Third time back, and with a very sharp :59 3/5s at 5f  last workout, I'm thinking Glatt/Prat (35% winners at SA/ 26 starts) have a live one.  I really like the consistency of Carmelita's Man.  Also a late runner, 6 of 8 in the money in 2022 with 3 wins, a Place at this distance on this track in March. Hernandez, up, 27% winner at SA currently.  

Those two I think are the top two, so who could upset them?  Well, that's where it gets a bit dicey. Royal n' Rando is making a class jump, never won at the distance, only 1 turf win in 4 starts, no wins at SA, BUT 10 of 13 in the money in 2022 with 6 wins.  Won't be much better than 4 or 5 on tote board I reckon.  Coalinga Road, a 6 year old Quality Road (Turk's favorite horse all time) goes for Carla Gaines, winless in stakes in past year, 4% sprint to turf BUT 27% dirt to turf. J. Velazquez up for second straight race.  Distance shouldn't be an issue but like Royal n' Rando, should be in the 3-5 spot on tote board.  

After those two, Kings River Knight maybe the best option.  Taking a big class jump up, the 5 YO is 3 of 3 over turf. Distance shouldn't be an issue, synth to turf shouldn't be an issue, having Dettori up isn't a negative.  The gelded son of Acclamation is training sharp and ships in ready.  A late toss for me is Doc Adams.  He'll be bet but not by me for better or worse.  C+ is my kiss of death, be warned.

What might I do?  5-7-4 OVER 1-8 for $12 is tempting but I may limit my investment to 5-4 OVER 1-8 for $4.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

   

The Nomination Is In: The Pacific Classic G1 at Del Mar

Express Train:  Photo by Benoit

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, now in our 14 year of providing handicapping and analysis.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for giving me an opportunity to handicap the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar. 

On a personal level, Del Mar was the last track I visited before the pandemic.  I was there for the Pacific Classic in 2019.  My handicapping, and my love of horse racing, was hit hard last year by the pandemic and the impact it had on the schedule, the field sizes, and life in general.  Don't take my lack of blogging to mean I'm not interested in horse racing anymore, I just was struggling to write about races I wasn't that interested in.  I've rekindled my passion for racing this summer and I've been handicapping quite a bit as I start to prepare for my favorite meet, Kentucky Downs, and getting ready for Breeders' Cup.  I'm not sure if I'll ever get back to writing 50-75 blog posts per year, but no matter how many it is, without a love for racing there can't be any.  

Anyways, lets get after this!

   

There is quantity, but not real quality in this year's edition of the Pacific Classic.  Let's take a look at some recent Video just to get a feel for the runners.  My main goal of looking at video is to provide context to the past performance running lines.  I look for trips, I gage if rank, game, dueled, outbid, dug in.  Those are the buzzwords you'll see in the race charts and I like to confirm with my own eyes or identify possible bias in the analysis.  You have to remember how many races the "experts" have to review and write notes on, and professional handicappers and racing journalists, how many races they have write about, people get lazy, or better yet, sloppy.  If you are going to find overlays, and just as importantly, underlays, you have to look at the information, and video trip handicapping is the compendium to race charts.  Can we find value?

  The San Diego Handicap G2; 17 July 2021; 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt Del Mar

Key Prep: Exiting are Express Train (W), Royal Ship (S), Tripoli (P), Magic on Tap (5), Sherriff Brown (7) 

 

The Cougar II G3; 18 July 2021; 1 1/2 Miles Fast Dirt Del Mar

Exiting: Tizmagician (1), Cupid's Claws (2) 

 

  The Monmouth Cup G3; 17 July 2021; 1 1/8 miles Fast Dirt Monmouth

Exiting: Dr. Post (1)

 

The Santa Anita Handicap G1; 6 March 2021; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt Santa Anita

Contested: Express Train (2), Tizmagician (5), Independence Hall (4), 

 

The Gold Cup G1; 31 May 2021; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt Santa Anita

Contesting: Express Train (3), Royal Ship (2 Hd)

I can't help but favor Express Train based on the San Diego Handicap.  The field was bunched and he just showed class when pressed by Royal Ship and Tripoli.  Trainer Shirreff's runner has trained well since then and appears to be in excellent form.  9 of 10 in the money on fast dirt, his last seven outings are all consistent G1/G2 efforts, and 4 of 4 in the money at Del Mar.  Solid.  

Royal Ship (BRZ) is a 5 YO Mandella trainee. No wins and only one try at the distance (The Hollywood Gold Cup) but he looked solid in that outing.  No wins in 2 tries at Del Mar.  Perfectly capable of winning. 

Tripoli  is only making 3rd dirt start after 11 turf races from the Kitten's Joy  4 YO.  He really went at Express Train in the San Diego Handicap but before that was a $60-70K ALW/OC contestant for 10 races or so.  Sadler is showing confidence, I'm not sure I should be based on race charts.  

Tizmagician is cutting back from Marathon distances.  Nice effort in the Cougar II but it's a different  tempo. Mandella/Pratt 28% winners on 29 tries at Del Mar and 36% Winners in rolling year in 90 starts.  11 of 16 in the money on fast dirt.

Dr. Post is a 4 YO Quality Road, and friends of the Turk know that Quality Road is one of my favorite horses of past 15 years.  I try to set that bias aside.  Dr. Post got a great trip in Monmouth Cup and he flashed serious speed.  Pletcher doesn't ship west without a strong belief.  First attempt at Classic Distance, First at Del Mar, if there is an upset candidate I like the speed he's going to have to target.   

Magic on Tap is slow, inconsistent.  Training very sharp at 5F, last win at 7F. If not for Baffert's name I'm not sure I give him much thought.  I  just don't see he deserves a look in my Exacta but he could be early speed. 

I'm tossing Independence Hall (ML 5-1) Cupid's Claw and Sheriff Brown.  Independence Hall is just uneven.  Perhaps the Blinkers (29% On/23% First Time) may help.  Trainer McCarthy 16% on 61 starts 61-180 day layoff and J/T Combo looking for first win in 4 tries.  

I'm not thrilled at the betting prospects on this race as much as I am looking forward to seeing who steps up from this group.  There are too few stars currently and a Pacific Classic win will make many of these horses a millionaire, which this race has none of.  

I'm going to assemble an Exacta long on risk and big on reward.  I'm going to put Tripoli/Dr. Post above Express Train, Royal Ship, Tizmagician and Magic on Top:  1-3 OVER 5-4-2-6 (1-3), a $2 bet for $16 or a $20 bet if I box 1-3.  

The reality is Express Train should roll, Royal Ship should roll, but that's handicapping.  In bet construction you have to say what if, you have to be willing to see the possibilities, and above all else, don't try to be too safe.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!  

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Downs Tourist Mile $750K

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now in our 9th Year and 11th month of providing horse handicapping and bet construction to people who neither asked for it nor read it much anymore!

The Turk absolutely loves the quirky turf only track in Franklin, Kentucky, Kentucky Downs. Quite frankly the only thing I don't like about this boutique meet is how short it is, as I'm always left wanting for more.  I'll be playing at least Race 7 (One Dreamer 250K, For F&M 3 YO and Up that haven't won a sweepstakes in 2018 and Race 8, The Tourist Mile 750K for 3 YO and Up, which I'm blogging the details of today.

Are you familiar with Kentucky Downs?  The video below gives you a feel for the Euro flavor sweeping first turn and the tighter second turn.  As well, last year's Tourist Mile is below for familiarization.  The only horse running back in the Tourist Mile is 5 YO Bandar.  Master Merion, a 4 Yo Quality Road gelding trained by Wesley Ward has a win in his only start here while Mr. Cub is 1 win in 2 starts here, a 125K ALW last year at 1 mile on good turf where he pressed the pace all the way before shaking clear as a 4-1 carrying 118# (125# today).   




2017 Kentucky Downs Tourist Mile; For 3 YOs and Up; Turf listed as Good




I went through quite a bit of analysis that was originally developed by Dick Downey of the Downey Profile.  You'll find Dick's Twitter feed here.

You find entries, scratches and changes and track condition here.  The weather looks right now to be wet and I would suspect the track will not be firm.  Let's get after it!

UPDATE 3:00 PM ET:  SCRATCH 2 Master Merion.  Turf FIRM. 




Mr. Misunderstood is having a wonderful turf career: 11 of 13 in the money over grass with 10 wins, setting his best 101 speed rating in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile at Kee.  This is a class drop for him, even from his second to last time out win in the Grade 2 Wise Dan at CD in June and his win in the Ellis Park Preview Mile for Kentucky Downs 26 days ago.

In general you'll note the Turk's Fair Line doesn't show much separation;  72.63% chance my top four wins.  This excites me thinking about the Will Pays on Exacta betting for multiple value combinations.

Mr. Cub is 8 of 14 lifetime in the money over turf, 3 of 3 lifetime at the distance and has a one mile win pressing the pace over good grass a year ago.  The 4 YO Artie Schiller gelding runs back on a 3 week layoff after a dull effort in Lure 100K, 1 1/16 Miles over good turf at SAR.



The running line calls his lost momentum a bobble.  It looked to me like a bobble or he just lost footing on his hard inside line, but whatever the horse was in front on a soft pace and at the top of the stretch dropped back to last quickly.

Bound for Nowhere, talk about a class drop, from a 6F  good turf race at Ascot to Franklin!  He ran a big race in field of 12.



118 Early US Timeform pace.  Distance increase, stretching out from his comfort zone of 5-6 F which makes some sense as the 4 Yo son of The Factor.  Julio Garcia is back up for Wesley Ward, and the combo are 41% winners  on 86 starts over past year all tracks. Here they win the Shakertown Stakes G2 at KEE, 5 1/2 Furlongs over soft footing.  Watch him explode in the straight.




Ken and Sarah Ramsey's Camelot Kitten has a very good late turn of foot with a 113 late Timeform pace fig. 1 win in last 9 starts, a fake dirt Turfway Park win in the Kentucky Cup Classic 100K.  4 wide in the last turn and his closing speed on full display.  I don't like the lack of winning, and he hasn't even been in the money but the one time in last 9 races




Krampus cuts back in distance while increasing in class.  He won last time out at 1 1/8th pressing the pace with an 89 Beyer over firm turf in a 62K OC N2X.  The 4 Yo gelded son of Shakespeare has 4 wins and is in the money 6 out of 8 starts over grass.

Master Merion, a gelded 4 Yo Quality Road ( a Turk favorite runner and a damn fine sire) is 10 of 11 in the money over grass and 4 of 5 in the money at the distance with a win at Kentucky Downs in one start.  He's also first time back from Ascot for Wesley Ward but didn't do as well as Bound for Nowhere.  Last turf win was a Breeders' Cup Weekend undercard race, Let It Ride Stakes 79K at Del Mar at 1 Mile over firm turf. I may have him too low and is a live threat at least for Place and Show.





Finally Great Wide Open (Ire) has one win in last 11, 4 wins in 24 turf starts and the 6 YO comes in on a 61-180 day break (June 23).  Big early Timeform Pace of 124.  Last few running lines: "....drifted...faltered late...no response...weakened late....game and faded.."  The "game" was his last win, 1 mile 80K OC on turf at FG.  Eh.

I tossed Bandar from contention at my own peril

I'm not sure what I'm doing yet with this one.  I'm thinking about $8-10 of Exactas and $4 of Win Bets defensively bet.  I want to get a better feel for the surface and the Will Pays before committing.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The G2 Suburban at Belmont

Follow Me Crev: Santa Anita 

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

If you told me Follow Me Crev, the five year old son of Quality Road, was racing in a six horse field, I would say of course, it's the state of racing at Santa Anita.

What's really disappointing is that this isn't Santa Anita, it's Belmont, and he goes against Shaman Ghost and maybe two more legitimate threats in the Grade 2 Suburban.

Today was a messy day at Belmont weather wise.  The track is listed as Fast at the end of day Friday.  Pay attention to the Scratches and Changes and Track Condition Page, as you always should, prior to betting.  The weather is supposed to be dry out after the rains end around midnight on Friday.

Let's get after it!






Let's take a closer look at some of these runners:

Pimlico Special G3  1 3/16 Miles Fast Dirt.  Watershed and Shaman Ghost



 Charlestown Classic G2 1 1/8 Sloppy Dirt.  Matt King Coal and Sunny Ridge.



Santa Anita Handicap G1  1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt.  Shaman Ghost and Follow Me Crev. 



Santa Anita Gold Cup G1  1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt.  Follow Me Crev (watch last 1/8 mile)



I'm really not sure what I want to do with this race.  I don't think it's a stretch to say Shaman Ghost is the best of the bunch.  10 of 12 in the money on fast dirt.  A field top Beyer of 112.  Consistent, solid efforts, typically comes late, with a physical charge in final 16th.  Game.  Driving. Flat Out.

Shaman Ghost will be heavily bet.  My only interest in this race is to either beat him or single him on top of exacta with value below. Value is relative for most of these runners, so unless I make the case for Sunny Ridge or Watershed in Place, what am I doing?

Can Follow Me Crev, Keen Ice or Matt King Coal win?  Of course they can.

Keen Ice is first back after trip to Dubai.  It's an angle I don't love.  Training sharply for six weeks now for Trainer Pletcher.  Winless in last 10 races, 2 wins in 21 starts, 1 win in seven starts at classic distance.  Ugh.  I'm not a fan of this horse at all.

Matt King Coal comes in off win and career high 102 Beyer on a fast Penn National dirt route in early June.  4 of 4 in the money in 2017 for the 4 year old son of Cool Coal Man, a Florida Bred trained by Linda Rice with Ortiz, up. Lone Speed and a front running style.  He could steal the race.

Follow Me Crev leaves California for the first time for Trainer Vlad Cerin.  He'll be coming very late with Shaman Ghost.  Loses the class battle to Shaman Ghost but with right trip its possible.

I'm thinking Shaman Ghost late but I'm going to try Matt King Coal and/or Follow Me Crev over Shaman Ghost in an exacta.  That sounds conservative and blah.

I may  box Matt King Coal, Follow Me Krev, Sunny Ridge and Keen Ice in an exacta and freeze out Shaman Ghost for a high reward/low risk betting possibility.

If I play it, and that's still a big if, it will be purely hunting for value, which means Shaman Ghost having an off day.  Sounds like a bad bet.

Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Louisiana Derby

Girvin: Amanda Hodges Weir/Weir Photography

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, a horse racing blog that has been blissfully bringing handicapping thoughts to a group of hardcore readers since 2008.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me the opportunity today to handicap The Louisiana Derby, a 1 1/8 mile prep race for the Kentucky Derby.

That good looking fella to the left is Girvin, winner of the Grade 2 Risen Star in late February at this racetrack, Fair Grounds.  To my long time readers, you'll know that The Turk doesn't really care at all about two year old racing, and I don't really spend much time thinking about these horses on the Derby trail, like the seven in this field of nine that are Triple Crown eligible.  Am I a  curmudgeon or some anti-social horse racing purist?  Not at all, I'm just a guy who likes a Past Performance sheet to be filled with data, data from 10+ career starts after the age of 3.  I like history, I like video, I'm not that partial to talking about things that I have no clue about, like pedigree analysis.  I also don't care for horse racing journalism about the horses.  Again, nothing against the good writers, but I get sucked into the feel good stories, the underdog stories, the can't miss stories, and that bias throws me off as a handicapper.  This is my Sudoku, my game of Chess, and I try to keep the bias out and the data heavy.

So, where do I start when looking at a Derby prep race?  The same place I always start, with the weather and the track condition and tote board.  Things can change rapidly with the weather here but it appears Friday and Saturday will be mostly rain free and for now we will assume a fast dirt route.

Let's also take a look at last year's LA Derby G2 and Gun Runner.




And this year's Risen Star at 1 1/16 on fast dirt with Local Hero/3, Guest Suite/6, Sorry Erik/7 and Girvin/8 returning in this match.



Trainer Joe Sharp and Brian Hernandez, up, look like they have prepared a very professional Girvin. I also liked Guest Suite who didn't have a great trip but was really coming late wide and I would expect more of the same from Local Hero, lots of speed, but can he carry it? Sorry Erik should be a non factor.

Let's get it on!




When I look at the scant past performance data on Girvin and Guest Suite (9 races between them: 5 wins, 1 place and 2 Shows) I see the Class of the race.  Monaco, a $1.3 Million dollar Uncle Mo purchase at the Spring 2016 sale is very lightly raced, works rather consistently, but hasn't done anything yet, while $0.5 Million dollar purchase Local Hero has enough speed that he will be a factor in his races. Money doesn't buy you happiness or race results, just promise.  It's still very early in the development of these race horses, but The Turk likes horses that have done it before, not just thinking about doing it.

Girvin has been on the shelf and training at Fair Grounds since winning the Risen Star and gamely coming up just short in a 1 Mile Turf race at Fair Grounds in early February.  He appears to have been genetically born to rate.  I could ramble some more but just watch the Risen Star video above, you'll see a nice late turn afoot and a confident ride by Hernandez.  I've always liked the second/third tier Jock Hernandez, the 2004 apprentice jockey of the year.  Maybe his career goes a bit more high profile if he doesn't lose the Rachel Alexandra mount to Calvin Borel.  

Being contrarian in nature, I like Guest Suite in the win spot.  The gelded son of Turk favorite Quality Road, he trains fast, his Beyer's are increasing, and with the extra distance he may be able to collar Girvin.

Patch, a very lightly raced Calumet Farms runner for Todd Pletcher, comes in off a fast one turn affair.  Local Hero, a fast Hard Spun/Liam's Dream creation, will be near the front and the only real question for me is how far does he carry and can he hold on for a minor prize.

Rounding out my contenders for Show and Exotic are Senior Investment and Hollywood Handsome. Senior Investment is a bit slow but rating really well and will be coming late.  Minor prize possible.  Hollywood Handsome has been training very sharply at Fair Grounds and also has shown a late turn of foot.

I'm not sure what I'm going to do with this yet.  I think I'll be looking at something like:

a $2 Trifecta of 6/8 OVER 6/8 OVER 1/3/4/2 would cost $16.

Whatever you do, have fun with it and bet responsibly.

Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Colonial Turf Cup Pick 3 (Race 6-7-8)

Edward P. Evans loved his horses.  Rich beyond the comprehension of most horse players, Edward P. Evans was an everyman around his horses, enthusiastic and deeply involved.  His Quality Road was my last thoroughbred obsession, and with his death on New Years Eve 2010, there is a void left in the owner/breeder/sportsman ranks that has yet to be filled.  Barbara Livingston assembled a photo essay as a memorial to the late Mr. Evans for the Daily Race Form that is worth taking a look at on this special day in Virginia horse racing, a state that honored Mr. Evans 9 times as Breeder of the Year.

As a horse fan and a horse gambler, I was pretty disappointed today.  I planned to play Belmont's late Pick 4 but I was very turned off by a 5 horse Mother Goose Stakes.  I flipped over to Hollywood only to find a 5 horse Hollywood Oaks and a bunch of 2 YO races.  I don't want to sound like a crabby ol' Turk but I can't do anything much with a 5 horse field, it doesn't play to my strengths and it isn't even that compelling.  Colonial Downs wasn't my last choice, it was my first choice for turf today, but only seven horses in the Grade 3 All Around and 8 horses in the Grade 2 Colonial Turf Cup still bugs me, but its adequate enough to handicap and assemble some small bets.

I'm still in a bit of shock over last week's Stephen Foster Handicap;  I didn't see the break out/return to form of Breeders' Cup Classic Champ Fort Larned.  Shame on me, but I don't think I would have predicted those results ever.  As handicappers we have to have short memories and put the missteps aside: The horses don't read my blog, they don't get the memo, get over it Ye' Ole crabby Turk.

Let's get after this!



The two key races of this Pick 3, the graded stakes, have smallish fields for turf races, but a core of quality horses in each.  Race 6 at 7:10 Eastern Time is the Edward P. Evans All Along.  The turf should be firm come race time.  Channel Lady, a 4 YO English Channel daughter trained by Pletcher with Castellano up, should be a money magnet and will go off at even or less than even odds.  6 of 8 in the money on turf, 6 of 9 lifetime in the money with 4 wins, loser at 1 mile on good turf last time out.  On paper she has the class and the connections.  Fairly dull morning work.  I can't help but tip my hat to her as the best horse in the field but I'm going to bet against her. 

So who then? Appealing Cat, an Augustin Stable runner for Trainer Motion, with Prado up, is the sort of sucker horse I've lost plenty of races with.  The 4 YO Successful Appeal runner bred by Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame member George Strawbridge seems to be going well right now with an N3X win and a warm up effort Grade 3 at Pimlico last month on Preakness Day.  I also like Adjacent, a 7 YO Boundary Mare for trainer McGaughey and Lezcano up.  Cutting back in distance off her last effort at Belmont, 8 of 10 in the money lifetime. 

Embarr and Welcome Dance round out my possibles.  Welcome Dance is intriguing: Sharp work in prep of first race since October She may push the pace.  My thought is that Channel Lady and Adjacent will chase the pace and Appealing Cat will fire late off of that pace.  Do they read the blog?

The Colonial Turf Cup field is also well balanced, with only Roadhog and London Lane being tossed.  I like Atigun to win.  The 4 YO Istan runner,  cutting back in distance, is 4 of 5 in the money in 2013 with a clunker in Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap and decent efforts all round. 

Air Support will get alot of play but only one win in last nine starts, but a few big efforts to Place, including last year's edition of this race, losing to Turbo Compressor by 1 1/4 lengths.

Hyper is interesting;  Trainer Chad Brown is winning 29% of turf races, 21% of Graded Stakes and 33% off this sort of layoff.  4 of 4 in the money in 2013, the 6 YO Victory Gallup runner for the Ramsey's may still have a new level to achieve in his career and today could do that.

General Logan should come late off the pace.  Swift Warrior has a good chance to upset the applecart too.  That's as deep as I'm going.

I'm going to build some reasonable Trifectas and Superfectas for both Race 6 and 7;  Both bets for both races will be the same with the superfecta 3 over 5 over 5 over 4 for a $6 dollar ten cent bet and the Trifectas  3 over 5 over 5 for an $18 50 cent bet. 

The Pick 3 I'm toying with either 3 horses over 3 horses over 3 horses for a $27 dollar 1 buck bet OR a 2 horse over 2 horse over 7 horse $14 dollar 50 cent bet. 

The Turk's Rolex fund is growing with my winnings but today seems like a pretty chalky affair so I'm more interested in having fun than losing big.  Always bet responsibly and get help if you need it.

Turk Out!

Rest in Peace Edward Evans

This shocking piece of news to start the New Year is borrowed liberally from Ron Mitchell's article at the Bloodhorse.com and we thank them for our use.

Edward Evans, whose racing and breeding program at Spring Hill Farm in Casanova, Va., produced numerous stakes winners including 2010 multiple grade I winner Quality Road , died Dec. 31 in New York. He was 68. Thanks to Sarah K. Andrew for this wonderful portrait of a horse that surely gave Mr. Evans great pleasure.

“We will miss the man first and the sportsman second,” said Spring Hill manager Chris Baker. “I will miss him personally and the sport will really miss him. He was one of a kind the way he went about his business.”


Evans was the son of Thomas Mellon Evans, a successful owner and breeder who counted 1981 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner Pleasant Colony among the stakes winners produced on his Buckland Farm. Edward Evans purchased 2,800 acre Spring Hill Farm in 1969 and among the more than 100 stakes winners he bred were 2005 Horse of the Year Saint Liam as well as homebred stakes winners Gygistar, Tap Dance, Cat’s At Home, Minstrella, and With Ability. Other recent stakes winners he raced included grade I winner Cat Moves, and grade II winners Malibu Prayer and A Little Warm.

Evans invested many years in breeding his best mares with top-quality stallions, adding the fillies to his broodmare band upon retirement. Included among his broodmares were millionaire runners Raging Fever, Summer Colony, and Gold Mover.

One of his best purchases came at the 1999 Keeneland November breeding stock sale when he bought the Strawberry Road mare Kobla, in foal to Mt. Livermore, for $1,050,000. Kobla, winless in two starts at the racetrack, is out of the graded stakes-winning Alydar mare Winglet, and her full sister was the 1997 champion 3-year-old filly Ajina. In 2006, Kobla produced Quality Road.

Just last week, Yale University announced that Evans, a member of the 1964 graduating class, had given a $50 million gift to the Ivy League school toward the construction of a new building at the School of Management. The gift will fund a portion of the estimated $189 million construction costs and the building will be named after Evans. University officials say it’s the largest gift ever given to the School of Management.

Post Race Analysis August 7, 2010; Saratoga Late Pick 4 and Remembering Tuscan Evening

Friends, The Turk is a fan of the horses first and a handicapper second. I have never been the sort of handicapper that just talks about the saddle cloth numbers, I need a deeper connection then that. It was with great sadness that I learned of the death of Tuscan Evening. I've been a big fan and backer of the Irish bred mare and she is a testament to how wonderful some of these older animals can be when placed in the right barn and campaigned in just the right way. She was a terror in California and was about to make a big splash at Arlington on Millions Day. It wasn't to be. This is another reminder of just how cruel a sport this is, when it gives you a star to cherish like Tuscan Evening only to take her in the blink of an eye. I don't think I've been this shocked since Go Between (grandson of Turkoman) died under similar circumstances 19 months ago. My deepest condolences to Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and owner William Deburgh as well as everyone associated with this truly special mare. She ran the table at Santa Anita this past meet and anyone who follows the Great Race Place won't forget her anytime soon. I think The Saturday Post captured what I wanted to say more eloquently then this Turk could express.

On Saturday I assembled what I thought would be a winning Late Pick 4 bet at Saratoga. It's funny what can happen on the way to the forum. The Pick 4 was built around the fact that Quality Road would win, no questions asked. I believed, and still do, that Quality Road is the best 4 year old in training right now. I said that knowing full well that Blame was a darn fine horse and that Musket Man always delivers a strong effort and that Haynesfield is a solid horse, and a certain Kentucky Derby winner that is being prepped by a Hall of Fame Trainer, Mine That Bird, would also be running too.

I won't take anything anyway from Blame. The scary thing for the Quality Road camp is the Breeders' Cup is about 90 days away and he gets 2 starts between now and then to be sharp as Churchill Downs is a track Blame has run big on before, as has Rachel Alexandra. I still think Quality Road is the horse that finally beats Zenytatta but it's up to the horse not some bald, blathering blogger.

Saratoga Late Pick 4 August 7, 2010 including the Test and the Whitney.



I was out of the Pick Four pretty quickly as I did not include Sea Road in my top 3 in Race 8. That said, I salvaged the day nicely with a few obvious bets. I thought a Quality Road/Blame Exacta was a no brainer exacta and it returned nicely. I also thought that a mix of Quality Road/Blame in the top two spots and either Musket Man or Haynesfield in the Show spot was an obvious trifecta and it was.

The bet I was proudest of was the exacta on race nine. I planned on taking a strong stand with Champagne d'Oro and I did and I just worked my base handicap into it.

Disciplined betting has been the key to my recent work. After my base handicap is formed I in turn form a "value handicap". Some people refer to this as making your own running line/morning line. Instead of assigning odds I assign simple letter grades. Only A and B are considered in my bets. When you are a public handicapper like this you are thrusting your bets out there way too early. I prefer to build my handicap not knowing the morning lines, and as I have said here many times before, I do not read about the races or the horses that I am handicapping as the hype or writers slant can impact the handicap.

One of the best ways to test yourself as a handicapper without losing money is to handicap a card and then compare your picks to the track handicapper and the morning line. Are you in the same ballpark? Being contrarian is one thing, knowing how to identify the top three probable winners and how to identify the bottom few finishers accurately is fundamentally what you should be focused on.

Don't lose sleep about losing a bet. A consistent approach will bring you success but bumps will happen along the way. My pick 4 was not going to be a winner today unless I went deep into the first ticket and covered Sea Road. that's OK, I took $48 dollars and took a swing for the fence. The rest of the bet wasn't bad, even the decision to single Quality Road is hard to knock in hindsight. The NYS Bred Maiden turf race to end the night should have been the tricky one and it was a breeze.

Don't try to cover too many horses; build reasonable price tickets, be consistent, and success will follow you as your skill as a handicapper grows.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 7, 2010: Saratoga Late Pick 4 including Grade I Test and Whitney

The wonderfully talented Sarah K. Andrew's portait of Quality Road is one of my favorite horse head shots of all time. This magnificent animal I am told is friendly and gentle, and on the track there is no better four year in training anywhere in the world. the Turk owns tickets to this coming Breeders' Cup and I tingle at the idea of seeing the greats that will line up against Quality Road on the biggest stage, no longer able to not enter races where he is, no longer able to run against inferior fields. The rubber will meet the road in the Breeders' Cup Classic and my money is on this beautiful monster of a horse.

Before I get all misty and blubbering, we have a Late Pick 4 at Saratoga that i'll take a run at hitting with a thin ticket and a single on Quality Road. Let's go!

Saratoga Late Pick 4 Race 8-11; First Post Time 4:42



I'll wax a bit more poetic in my post race analysis and I'll leave my spreadsheet to speak for itself right now.

Check the Scratches and Changes before you place your bets.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 31, 2010: The Belmont Park Late Pick Three including The Met Mile

It was a great holiday weekend for the Turk, closed out by a workmanlike Pick Three win at Belmont. May has been a disappointing month for The Turk as the lack of a real Triple Crown contender always saps my faith. I handicapped, but my usually race-centric mind was distracted and unfocused. I had to follow my own advice which I dole out to other horseplayers: When you don't feel like handicapping, don't! I've had a relaxing month of analyzing race charts and watching race replays without the pressure of betting or blogging. This week, with the Belmont Stakes sizing up to be a snoozer, I broke out of my funk and handicapped like mad, playing Hollywood, Arlington, Woodbine and Belmont. I felt invigorated thinking about the second half of the racing season, with Belmont and Saratoga, the Monmouth Millions, Arlington and Del Mar all on my horizon. I'm going to forget this Triple Crown season and keep it positive. How about a Quality Road, Zenyatta, Rachael Alexandra Breeders' Cup Classic to make you feel giddy about the future. Let's thinker short term then: Who's going to The Haskell, who's going to the Alabama,Travers and Woodward, who's looking for an Arlington Millions win? All good stuff without the pain of a Triple Crown setback. Ok, let's go!

Belmont Park Race 9 - Race 10 - Race 11 (Race Charts Hyperlinked- Google Doc Inserted)



I kept my betting simple today: My goal was the Pick Three anchored around Quality Road being a single choice and I hoped for a price to take either the first or last leg and pump some value into the bet payout. It didn't really happen like that with the exception of Quality Road keeping his end of the bargain.

Before I placed my bets I realized that Strike it Rich had raced the day before at Monmouth so obviously was scratched here. It made my bet fairly straight forward; three choices in Race 9, one choice in Race 10 and four chances in Race 11. I plunked down a $4 Pick Three Bet for $48 dollars and thought I'd let it ride, no pressure, just fun.

In Race 9, prerace I thought Negligee was the best runner but included Check The Label in my Pick Three. The betting public saw this race about the same way I did and most of the money laid out was on one of these two fillies. Check The Label entered off a 92 BSF and a 1 Mile Turf win at KEE. No surprise in the win but a bit surprised that Crescenda came up for Place. Trainer McDonald was clipping along at 5% winners on turf and he had yet to win a race when teamed with E. Coa up. The lightly raced daughter of Bowman's Band has now won twice and placed twice in four starts and is 3 of 3 in the money on Turf. Not bad indeed.

Race 10 saw another dominant Quality Road victory and I stand behind my statement of believing that he is the best colt in training currently in the World. As I said prerace, if anyone would challenge it would be Musket Man, and he ran his typical solid race. Tizway was a bit of surprise to me but he shouldn't have been; Came in off an N3X 102 BSF win at 7 furlongs in which he ran a final 1/8 in :11.72 and has been training 5 furlongs in :59 3/5ths. Trainer Bond/R. Maragh win about 23% of the time and Bond's won last start is 29%. All good stuff but I valued Tizway further back. I backed Le Gran Cru to finish a bit higher. He ran a strong race and really pressed the pace but that wasn't the race I was hoping for from him. Fractions of :22 2/5, :45 and 1:08 2/5ths sizzled this group and the quality (no pun intended) Grade I talent of Quality Road and Musket Man rang the bell.

As for the Maiden Special Weight I had four choices out of 12 runners I handicapped (two scratched) and the shortest price on the board won, Lisa Jean.

The Pick Three returned $40.60 for $2 and my $4 variety netted $33.20. All in all a fulfilling weekend of handicapping and a nice Pick Three win without much risk.

The Turk has been traveling quite a bit and has had an opportunity to smoke cigars in many different cities lately. A friend of mine handed me a Drew Estate Java, a coffee infused stick, and wow was it good. I don't like flavored cigars but this was really good and it went well with my morning coffee as well.

Enjoy life, it's too short. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 31, 2010; The Belmont Park Pick Three including the Met Mile

That fine looking horse in the Sarah K. Andrew photograph is Quality Road, the best Dirt horse training in the world right now. The Met Mile is one of those races that just screams "start of summer" and a nice collection of runners will make sure that Quality Road has to have an honest effort to win today. The Met Mile anchors a Pick Three that includes a tough MSW Turf affair and a 3 YO Filly Grade II on turf, The Sand Point, no walk in the park, but hey, that's why we do this. Visit Sarah's website, Rockers and Racehorses to witness an artist on top of her game and support and patronize her if you are so inclined. OK, let's get after it!

Belmont Park Race 9 - 10 - 11 Pick Three. First Post 5:16 Eastern.



Track conditions do not appear to be a problem at all, with fast dirt and firm turf. Keep your eye out for scratches and changes and look at the weather just in case.

in the first leg, the Grade II Sand Point, Trainer Terranova places blinkers on Negligee and tries to crank her back into graded stakes condition. The filly is looking for her first turf win. The Trainer/Jock combo of Terranova and J. Velazquez clip along at 27% at Belmont and Terranova himself is at 35% at the track.

Strike it Rich is a Clement runner coming in off an N1X 1 mile firm turf affair at GP in late April. The 3 YO daughter of Unbridled's Song will go off at a good price and I like her chances. It is gambling after all.

Hit it Rich, with Kent Desormeaux up, looks at sod for the first time, something Trainer McGaughey gets 14% of the time but understands 100% of all things equine. A classy Smart Strike daughter for owner Stuart Janney III. A nice late turn of foot in past two efforts will translate well.

Check the Label, with 27% winner R. Dominguez up for the first time, is on a turf roll and is 5 of 7 in the money on turf and holds the race best BSF of 92 on grass.

It's a nice collection of runners and I'm hedging with all four of my top runners in the Pick Three and I'll be looking at the top five for Super and Tri bets.

In the Met Mile I only see Quality Road losing if he's rank or doesn't go in the gate, a problem that is hopefully behind him. That said, there are some very good horses in this race at one turn and I think the big guy is better at two turns, or at least dominant in the two turn races. He'll be carrying the race heavy 124 pounds as well and going off less then even money.

As a bit of a stretch, I like Le Gran Cru just outside of Quality Road. The 5 YO Dynaformer horse comes in off a Grade III win at 1 Mile at Belmont and has been training strong for Trainer A. Jerkens. A big price and I'm hoping he can hit the top four.

If I'm looking for upset winners, I'm looking at Musket Man who has six fast dirt wins and 9 of 9 in the money on fast dirt. A :58 4/5ths 5f work signals the Yonaguska son is ready to roll.

Tizway, Convocation and Warrior's Reward will make this an honest pace and win and Kensei and You and I Forever aren't slouches either. I'm surprised how many wish to challenge Quality Road, but if he falters, some nice prices will hit the board. I'm not sure what type of inner race exotic I'll play, maybe none here because I think the pace will crack some runners and a blanket will form after Quality Road. Ahh, it's gambling, perhaps a Super just for fun!

The last leg of of the Pick Three is a Maiden Special Weight 36K at 6 furlongs on turf for Fillies and Mares foaled in NYS. Ugh! I'm going to back four horses and not worry about this one too much: Rennina/2, Lisa Jean/3, Eager Leader/5 and Triple Latte/7 seem to me to be the class here and Moonwalk Beauty/9 and Hennessy Light/12 are probables I'm going to not cover and hopefully not regret.

Happy Memorial Day to my friends, family, readers and fellow veterans. Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day February 6, 2010; The Late Pick Three at Gulfstream Park

Some days as a handicapper you are out seeking to strike the gold. Other times, well, you just get tin. A pick three win is a pick three win, and I never turn them away, but today's affair at Gulfstream Park was a walk through the land of obvious. That said, there is still money to be made stringing chalks together into sensible bets and I found a way to double my investment, so let's stop rambling and get after it!

Gulfstream Park: Race 9 - Race 10 - Race 11



I picked the three race series at Gulfstream Park along with a three race series at Santa Anita on Thursday and started noodling on it during coffee breaks Friday afternoon. Looking at it with morning lines and scratches, it seemed to be a challenging collection of races with some nice horses competing in three graded stakes races, one of which being one of the early season highlights for me, The Donn Handicap. Once I started to handicap the races in earnest a completely different picture emerged.

In race 9 a smallish field of six at first glance with one runner, Adiago (GB) there only to provide a rabbit. I thought pre-race that this was a two horse race with Court Vision my expected winner and I thought Take the Points would run very strongly. While on paper Never on Sunday appears to be an imposing force, he was a mess in the paddock and needs a bit more time to adjust. This just wasn't a betting opportunity and I'm glad I didn't throw money at the trifecta and superfecta as I had planned too, as the risk/reward just wasn't there. I don't really have an opinion on the take down of Take the Points. A straight exacta win wouldn't have been possible without the DQ. I was alive in the Pick 3 and I moved on to Race 10 in which I had a single runner.



Race 10 was a thing of beauty for Quality Road. When he reached the top of the stretch, in that short 23 second ish burst to the wire a year's worth of frustrations and unfulfilled promise faded away. This is a horse of the highest caliber and the Older Horse and Horse of the Year campaign has gotten off to a very fast start. Can either Rachael Alexandra or Zenyatta beat Quality Road right now (or at the Breeders' Cup Classic) is the question that is now more interesting to me. A Track record for the beast from Virginia. There was a bunch of very like-abled horses behind Quality Road and I took a stab at a five horse Superfecta that didn't work out but I was alive after the second leg of the Pick Three.



And then in Race 11, the Grade III Suwannee River Handicap my strongest opinion was on Tottie (GB) whom I dropped a rare win bet on early today when I thought he'd be like 8-1 only to find him the bettor's top choice. His win secured my Pick Three which paid a paltry $15. I seemed to have liked Cable more then the bettor's did and wrapping him into an exacta with Tottie proved to be lucrative.

Take The Points and somebody other then Tottie would have made the payout a bit more palatable but it is what it is.



I'm glad to hear that Eightyfiveinafifty was not hurt too badly in the bizarre incident at today's Whirlaway Stakes at the Big A.

Enjoy! Turk Out.

The Nominations Are In: February 6, 2010; Gulfstream Park Races 9-11 Pick Three

"Hey good looking, what cha' got cooking."

The handsome four year old son of Elusive Quality to the left is the Turk's heavy chalk in today's Grade I Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park, Quality Road. Our gate loading bashful superhero is the headliner in a late pick three that includes the Grade I Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap and the Grade III Suwannee River. Good Stuff!

We thank Sarah K. Andrew for the wonderful photo of Quality Road chillin' at Saratoga, please visit Sarah's website when you get a chance, you won't regret it! Let's get it on.

Gulfstream Park Race 9 - Race 10 -Race 11: Race 9 post time 5:18 ET (spreadsheet attached).



Keep checking the scratches, as there have already been four scratches from Race 11 and just as I'm writing this, You and I Forever just scratched from the Donn. The weather has been dry but that can change and you can find the hour by hour at the hyperlink. The track is currently listed as fast and the turf as good.

I smoked a Gurkha Dragon Fury as I handicapped. It was heavy and meaty, and it was a bit too lumbering for me. My mood was already a bit sour with Santa Anita closing again with the heavy rains and an all weather track that doesn't drain.

In Race 9, a smallish field of six horses go to the gate. I've been a big Court Vision fan, Mr. R. Duttrow not withstanding, and I like him in this spot. Trainer Duttrow has just gaudy stats, but the 32% on wins off a 60 day layoff and 25% of routes are pretty hard to ignore. R. Albarado is up. I'm taking a low risk approach today and I'm only looking at a second choice, Take The Points for the pick three selection. If I bet the race and I'm looking for possible value, Yate's Black Cat most likely will be the 4th or 5th bettor's favorite and has a legitimate shot coming off a nice GP 1 1/8 turf win January 22.

In Race 10, The Donn Handicap, I'm singling Quality Road. That said, I like the exotic opportunities here although 10 Cent Supers aren't in fashion, I'll be looking at my base handicap and the tote board to find some value exactas. I'm a fan of Delightful Kiss and I'm happy to see him go to the starting gate today. Duke of Mischief and Kiss the Kid cannot be ignored.

And finally Race 11, because I'm at 2 X 1 so far, I'm going to add five choices to this race and we'll see if we are still alive if we can't find a way to not screw this up! I don't really like any of these runners that much but the top four in my base handicap I think are all capable and I like Long Approach and Cable the best.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day January 3, 2010: The Hal's Hope Grade III at Gulfstream

There were questions, lots of questions, but one thing that was always known is that Quality Road is one fine horse. At the bottom of this post is the video replay of The Hal's Hope from opening day at Gulfstream Park. I don't know if he's a better miler then a classic distance runner, but he's talented enough for either and this was a good start to his 4 YO campaign. A healthy and hard running Quality Road will make the older horse division very interesting.

Race 8 Gulfstream Park: The Hal's Hope Grade III; 1 Mile on Fast Dirt for 4 YO and Up.



Quality Road came out of the gate very well and struck the lead early. Spin Master and Le Grand Cru were game and went with him through 6 furlongs. At that point You and I Forever ran up the inside and at the top of the stretch Quality Road and You and I Forever were trading strides until about 1/16 to go and Quality Road just powered away. You and I Forever ran a game second and Congressional Page and Harlem Rocker came in soon after. My pre race favorite Le Grand Cru didn't have it when it needed it against the strong pace of Quality Road, even with very moderate fractions and a final time that was a ho hum 1:36:33. The Donn Handicap on February 6th should be an interesting affair anyway, and with this win I'm sure we'll see Quality Road there.

I didn't like what I saw on the tote board and I was content with a simple win bet on Le Grand Cru that didn't work out.



Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 3, 2010; The Hal's Hope at Gulfstream & Post Race Analysis for The Count Fleet & San Gorgonio Hcp.

The fine looking, Allen Jerkens trained horse to the left is none other then two time Grade III winner, Le Grand Cru, the Turk's tepid chalk in the Grade III Hal's Hope on opening day at Gulfstream Park. Yesterday's two handicaps kicked off another year of publicly handicapping the ponies for The Turk. While I would have loved to report a big splash, it was more workmanlike and typical of the type of racetrack scores that don't kill you but don't make you rich either. Let's talk about yesterday and then get to today!

Race 8 Aqueduct: The Count Fleet Stakes; 1 mile and 70 yards on fast inner track dirt for 3 YOs and Race 8 at Santa Anita: The San Gorgonio Handicap Grade III; 1 1/8 miles on firm turf for F&M 4 YO and Up.



Full disclosure. I fell asleep yesterday afternoon and woke up with a few minutes to post at Aqueduct in the Count Fleet. I was less excited about this race anyhow after Peppi Knows scratched. I expected a better effort from Ibboyee and I hated the odds this horse was bet down to. I also liked my base handicap and didn't like the idea of a sub $10 exacta winner so I shook off the cobwebs, looked at the Tote Board and bet my 2nd and 3rd choices, which lined up with what the bettors thought as well. Laus Deo rewarded my rather lazy and uninspired bet, but a win is a win.

At Santa Anita, the scratch of Life Is Sweet eliminated a serious money magnet from the mix. I waited patiently on the tote board to see how the bettors responded and the response was about what I expected: Diamondrella was bet down to near even money with money spread nearly evenly between Cat by the Tale, Treat Gently (GB) and Diamondrella (GB). About the best value on the board was Century Park, who pre race I said would set the pace and get gobbled up at the top of the stretch, which is exactly what happened. Without a strong opinion I relied on my first impression of the race, my base handicap. Using it I constructed a win bet, an exacta and I came close to a Superfecta. I had the superfecta lined up to bet but it was a 5 horse box and I didn't think the reward was worth the bet. In hindsight I miscalculated and I left about 24 bucks at the window that should have been mine but mistakes happen, even in the confines of my quiet den. Mistakes are multiplied at the track itself with all kinds of distractions, so do your homework before you get to the track.

The results of the day were positive but more the result of good bet construction then handicapping. I don't always focus my blog on the bet construction mechanics for time constraint reasons, but soon I will do a cradle to grave blog post with spreadsheets and all on both side of the equation. I get more satisfaction from the handicapping side of things, but I get less grief from Mrs. Turk when the betting side of it pans out. A dichotomy for this horse players soul for sure!

Race 8 Gulfstream Park post time 4:43 ET; The Hal's Hope Grade III; 1 Mile on Dirt for 4 YOs and Up.



The best horse in the race is Quality Road followed by Harlem Rocker, two Pletcher trainees. That said, both enter with questions to answer and will hit the top four on class and skill more then anything else, and either could win, but I'm hunting for value and I like Le Grand Cru to win his third straight Grade III.

Le Grand Cru last raced in late October and has strung two straight upper 90 BSFs together to win two Grade III events. Working steady and fast at GP since mid December. The 5 YO son of Dynaformer is detirmined and will strike the lead early and won't cave in even if he slips back in the middle points of call. Sure its a crap shoot but most likely enters the post >5-1. No worse then fourth.

Harlem Rocker is a grade I winning miler who has raced once in over 14 months. :59 2/5ths at 5f in a handride just before XMAS, sharp enough to be competitive, talented enough to win.

Quality Road needs no introduction to most observers of our sport. Supremely talented, a bit of a tease, I do like him at 1 mile more then >8f but this is the first time back in a starting gate for real since the meltdown on live TV two months ago. I was surprised not to see some gate break training works but I'm not an Eclipse Award winning trainer so I'll zip it.

The rest of the field is a mixed bag, with the best of the bunch being You and I Forever. I'm looking at Spin Master as possibly busting into the top four.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 29, 2009; The Travers Stakes Grade I at Saratoga

Our sport is rich in tradition, something the Turk hopes it can retain in these darker hours of its history. The oldest stakes race in America, the Travers goes to post today for the 140th time at 5:45 ET on the main track in Saratoga. Awaiting the winning stable is the canoe, to be painted in their colors, where it will remain until next August to remind everyone who is the King of Saratoga at least for one year. The colors of Colonel John will join the other coats of underpaint after today.

Race 12 SAR, Post Time 5:46 ET; The Travers Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on Dirt for 3 YOs.



The Turk hasn't been a very good dirt handicapper at Saratoga as I highlighted in my analysis of the King's Bishop. Sometimes the best way to break out of a funk as a handicapper is to just keep handicapping and breaking down the results afterwards. I have spoken before about being humble or being humbled by this game; It's your choice. No matter what success I can talk about in the past, its a what have you done for me lately business and I've been a money burner on the dirt this meet. The Turk has almost stopped betting the dirt at Saratoga but I've been handicapping almost daily. I do that when I need to clear my mind, to not feel any pressure, and just take it back to basics. Saratoga is a tough play for many 'cappers, so I'm not down on myself, just reflective and being as analytical as I can be. Never lie to yourself and don't try to bet your way out of a rough patch.

Supers are in Vogue for this race and that's what I'm planning for. With that in mind, I like the morning line chalk Quality Road to win today. Three straight 110+ BSF's have placed him near the top of the 3 YO class after the maddness of Triple Crown Season ended. Training very well with Pletcher after an odd switch from Jerkens. An Owner has the right to do that and at least it was handled in a manner that didn't air publicly the raw emotions it must have unleashed to those involved. The distance and the lack of sloppy track work only concern me slightly. The son of Elusive Quality has what it takes.

My handicaps this weekend are more of a bet strategy then a dispassionate view of the horseflesh involved. Summer Bird and Kensei are clearly better horses, but I'm backing Charitable Man in the place spot. Working lights out since his solid 3rd place in the Grade II Jim Dandy, this is his second effort off a >45 day layoff, something Trainer McLaughlin hits 25% of the time.

Warrior's Reward and Summer's Bird will be right there to pounce off the pace, much of which will be driven by Trainer Zito's Our Edge. Kenesi may press the pace sooner then either of these two and I'm looking for him to falter because of this. I may be wrong, and the Asmussen trainee is a fine horse who may make me look foolish, but again, this is gambling and I'm shading him down a tad, no higher then fourth in a few of my tickets.

Warrior's Reward has the tepid Borel up. He's won only 1 of 31 races at the SPA and his in the money percentage is very poor. I'm a big Bo-Rail fan, and perhaps Warrior's Reward will help him break out. I like the 5F work on the off track and the race best 113 BSF on a wet track. Only 8-1 on the Morning Line, that will surely go up but at post value will still be there.

Summer Bird is also on his 2nd off a >45 day layoff, something Trainer Ice only hits 7% of the time. He does have a 106 BSF from his effort at the Haskell on a wet track, but an 86 from the slop at the Kentucky Derby which was also at this classic distance. Is this a BC Marathon runner or a BC Classic runner?

I am hunting for a strike today and I will employ a matrix and not a box strategy. It will aproximate a wheel and almost all my tickets will place Quality Road at the top, and the value tickets will have Charitable Man, especially if >6-1, and several will have Our Edge holding on for fourth, with Zito/Garcia a formidable team and just sparkling bullets for this rabbit. Garcia has really brought it to Saratoga, 29 wins so far and 44% in the money. Yeah.

Have Fun, Turk Out!