Post Race Analysis: The Mother Goose. "It's Just Numbers and Patterns"

 It's just numbers and pattern recognition.  While there are always outliers, if you approach your handicapping from the same place mentally, with the same application of thoughts applied to the runners, if you avoid the greatest traps of all, "the biases", you'll likely predict winners regularly and be successful with your handicap to at least have a fighting chance at assembling a proper bet.  

Two different sides of the coin, handicapping and bet construction.  I am a top shelf handicapper, especially with my approach to only handicapping in low volumes, but I'm just an OK bettor, much better as a bettor (say that three times) when I don't concern myself with losing.  That's a hard thing when you write about the races and your perceived credibility is measured strictly by wins and losses.  It took me a long time to realize that the only person who will ever truly know at how good I am at the horse game is me, and once I realized that, I stopped picking chalk to win in these written blog posts and started picking the best risk/reward combinations.  I always did that when I was just sitting in the stands and banging out bets, but it's more difficult than you might imagine when you write out the handicap and you are sticking your ass and credibility out there.  Anyways, I've been doing this a very long time and my closest readers know my handicappers eye, that's all I really care about.  

Bias.  Avoid the biases

•     Authority Bias:  Morning Line or TV Personality picks.  
•    Bandwagon Effect:  Putting aside my fan instincts.
•    Confirmation Bias:  Keep an open mind and don't prejudge the outcomes prematurely. 
•    Recency:  Important, but not everything.  Where are these athlete's in their cycle?
  

You'll find the Race Replay here at NYRA Website, I wasn't able to find a shareable Youtube video yet.  

As I said prerace, Xigera was heavy chalk and I predicted 5 out of 10 times he would win this race.  The real key is always identifying horses that can run better than their odds and horses that don't deserve their short odds. I already identified that Xigera deserved short odds, but look at Defining Purpose, fourth down the tote board at $7.2-$1 odds.   I thought she could match Xigera early (she did) I thought she could be better late (she couldn't).  Still, a simple $1 Exacta Box of these two returned $8.20 on a $2 investment.  That's how you make money better favorites in the Exacta.  

If you boxed my top four in the Superfecta a $1 bet for $24 returned $63.50.  It ultimately comes down to the handicapper's secret weapon, the Fair Odds table. I didn't win these bets, I would have never placed these bets, but the handicap and the analysis pointed to these selections and this race is a classic "don't overthink it" example.  Undervalued Asset was early speed and hadn't been past 6.5f.  Foggy Night was slow overall but had early speed.  Julia Shining has the flashy pedigree but doesn't know what she is, nor does Peak Popularity.  You see these sorts of patterns every week.  A handicapper must learn to understand why a horse is entered into the particular race and what the plan is for that horse by the connections.  

Xigera, if she comes back as a 4 YO, will be fun to watch.  Everyone else, what is the plan?

 It's all numbers friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Handicapping Analysis: The Honey Fox G3 at Gulfstream

Welcome Friends to The Turk blog. 

I write handicapping analysis of generally Graded Stake horse races. I started handicapping in 1986 when I spent a summer in Saratoga training to operate nuclear reactors in the sleepy town called Ballston Spa. I lived just blocks from the track. In the mid 1970's, like a lot of kids who grew up in that era, my only access to horse racing was older relatives, ABC Wide World of Sports and Sports Illustrated Magazine.  I had an Aunt, my dear Aunt Rose, who would baby sit me from time to time on Saturdays while my dad worked volunteering at a nearby Boys and Girls Club, and she was my first contact with the sport. I remember sitting at my older cousins house in 1977 watching Seattle Slew win the Preakness at a second cousin's first communion party. I loved reading Sports Illustrated, an era before the instant access internet, and I read and was fascinated by Formula One, Professional Boxing and Horse Racing. It was a simple time in a young boys life. 

In 1986, I was a young man, not quite 20, living in a paradise-like Saratoga (Jumel Place, just blocks from the Oklahoma Training Track.) The highlight that summer was seeing Sylvester Stallone with a bevy of women surrounding him. I worked a lot of mid and night shifts and I would grab the Daily Race Form with my breakfast and handicap. It was like a crossword puzzle to me and the next day I'd see if I was any good. Gambling was never really my thing, but I liked to predict.

Not much has changed in almost 40 years. I hate the term "tout," a label which is what bloggers like me get pigeonholed into. I'm touting no one. My handicaps and my bet constructions are offered free of charge, I have never made any attempt to monetize the blog, and all I'm doing is carefully unpacking a race each week at a level that the track handicapper doesn't have the time to do. Morning Lines and Track Handicappers miss signs, miss over and underlays, because they are busy, because they are surrounded by biases, perceived or not. One race a week I get into the mitochondrial and look for how the field should finish. I offer a bet suggestion on a simple exacta only basis, and the rest is up to you. 

I find my blog to be a relaxing therapy to the hustle and bustle of my job. Operations at a publicly traded company is high stakes, high expectations. Handicapping is an escape for a few hours each week. Horse racing is like a time machine back to Aunt Rosie's couch on 19th Street.

Anyways, I like to build these post race analysis looks at my handicapping, primarily for two reasons:  What did I miss or get right in that race and who should I quietly be watching for in an upcoming race. I will tell you I have had great success watching horses finish 4th or 5th up the track in one race, but showing me something with late turn of foot and stride, and finding them as overlays when most think of them as underlays.  

The Honey Fox G3: Fillies and Mares 4 YO and Up over Firm Turf: 1 Mile. GP.

Honey Fox G3

Race Chart

I identified Princess Theorem and Faith In Humanity (Fr) pre race.  

Faith In Humanity (Fr) Notes:

I really liked her early speed and her post position and thought she'd come out of gate and throttle this race.  Sharp works, with two bullets at 5f in late February.  Of course, being a Brown horse his stats off the layoff are good.  And finally, she was a grade 3 (class neutral) horse.  I still think Speak of the Devil (Fr) is the better horse, but not yesterday, and she herself was coming off a layoff since last June.  

Princess Theorem Notes:

When you are looking for value that that fill the second spot in an exacta, this is exactly what you are looking for.  I didn't think the mare could win, but late speed and a last race win at the distance and over same surface is a recency nod I can't ignore.  -2 Class note is to me she's a 25K OC horse, not a Grade 3.  

Look at :23 second final quarter in last race.

Yes, she finished Show, but could have easily finished Place.  The $1 Trifecta with her paid $373.80.  If you would have taken my top four and boxed them, you win the Tri.  The $2 Exacta, my juice, paid $48.60.  

I'm not touting, I'm analyzing at a level that no track handicapper could possibly because there are not enough hours in the day.  

Aunt Rosie

Have fun friends, Turk out! 

Post Race Analysis: The Unusual Heat Turf Classic at Santa Anita 1/7/2023

 

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog. 

This past weekend we had our first blog of the year, and our first exacta win of the year.  For new readers, this blog's main purpose is to handicap turf runners and then to develop bet strategies for exactas.    That's all I do.  I use to be a Superfecta bettor, Pick 4 and 6 guy, but I've limited myself intentionally to really refine my eye for runners over a route of grass.  

I'm a bit of an oddball with strong opinions.  As much as I love the writing of turf writers, I won't read anything about the races I'm handicapping before they are run.  I won't look at Morning Lines.  I absolutely won't listen to Fan Duel TV talking heads before I've decided my bet.  Bias creeps in everywhere and I just try to limit the amount of bias I have to deal with.  

So now that you know that The Turk is a weirdo (I refer to myself in the third person just to accentuate this), you should also know that I'm not the horse player I once was.  My day job requires the appearance of fiduciary responsibility at all times, and I gave up being a degenerate gambler some time ago.  I enjoy tearing down the past performances of older horses running over 1 1/8 miles over firm (preference) grass like others may like crossword puzzles or Sudoku.  I love the mental exercise of ranking the horses, which you'll see in my Base Handicap.  From my Base Handicap, I form m y bet construction.  Always exacta's, always hunting for value.  I like the pool sizes and I like studying larger fields and finding the the overlays as well as identifying underlay's and taking advantage of the betting public's mistakes. 

The Turf Classic $200K: 1 1/8 Miles on good turf.

There was no real science on this one.  Pre-race I said "...What might I do? $2 5-7-4 OVER 1-8 for $12 is tempting but I may limit my investment to $2 5-4 OVER 1-8 for $8".   The $8 limited bet returned a net $17.60.  It's a win by a neck, take it and move along.  

I'll be back this weekend with the Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf at Gulfstream Park.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for the Grade 2 San Gabriel at Santa Anita

Dicey Mo Chara:  Benoit Photo

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  As I said, pre race, I didn't see this as a betting opportunity race because I believed the public would see this race as I did, some combination of Masterof- foxhounds, 

Prince Abama and Dicey Mo Chara in the exacta.  

While the the handicap was good, the bet construction lacked vision.  It's important to always remember that bet construction has to realize your opportunity cost for the risk involved.  Speaking English, If I'm going to bet money, I need to get my money back plus a minimum 3X multiplier, or a $12 bet has to return $48.  It doesn't always work out like this, but you get the idea.  That's not to mean  I won't sometimes go after low hanging fruit, but in general I need my expected return to justify the bet. 

I use a simple formula pre race:  Horse 1 Odds X (Horse 2 Odds +1)= Return on exacta.  It's not to the penny, but its quicker and easier than looking at the will pay chart as it rotates through the field.

Let's come back to this is a second, but first speaking of English, lets watch the race con un picante sabor español.

The San Gabriel Grade 2: 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up.

From the DRF Formulator Race Charts (unpaid and unsolicited plug- I'm comfortable with the DRF tool, it's that simple)

So Pre race I was thinking $3.80 * ($1.20+1) = $8.36 for a $1 Exacta and $16.72 for a $2 Exacta. Those numbers are generally a bit overstated and I typically use 80% of the value I calculate.  I would have won the battle and lost the war.  

What I should have done is consider and give more credit to Flashiest and his 7 Santa Anita Starts, his 3 Place Finishes at the Distance and his excellent late speed.  Added to that is the public's opinion of him at post time:  $21.90 to 1,  Let's plug that into the calculator with Dicey Mo Chara on top:

$3.80 * ($21.90+1)=  $87.02  The $1 Exacta paid $71.40.  For my simplicity I used 80% of my estimate to account for takeout= .80*87.02=$69.62.  You get the idea. 

If I was building bets off the handicap, this one was obvious.  Now in hindsight it's super obvious.  As I start to handicap more and more, I'll get sharper, a fact I've learned many times over the years when I take some time away.  This wasn't a race worth betting under my base handicap, it needed value.  That value actually has to have a chance.  Late speed and a record of Place finishes was starting me in the face.

Anyways, better luck next time.  Turk Out!