Post Race Analysis for Raceday March 28, 2009

The Turk didn't have any expectations with the Dubai races except to enjoy the races themselves as well as gain experience handicapping foreign horses with scant information on the PPs. The Florida Derby on the other hand, I had high expectations to not only handicap well, but to possibly find a betting situation that would result in a big payout. Well one out of two ain't bad.

Race 10 GulfStream Park: The Florida Derby Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



With two scratches, the field got a bit too small, and the money a bit too big on what the betting public sensed were the only three horses worthy of betting. They were right, but as a bettor, you're not happy when everyone else has the same opinion as you. The Trifecta paid $6.00. I did some quick math a few minutes before post and thought the Trifecta would be no more the $10.00, and with a minimum payout expectation threshold of $30.00 that I shoot for, I passed. I had two bets ready to go, and one of them was the straight trifecta, but again, a bettor like me who likes to eeck out good returns on small risk just didn't see the point.

But I'm ahead of myself. The race itself was semi-dramatic for about a furlong. Quality Road hit the stretch and the only one ready to meet him was Dunkirk. The two fine colts, the best two colts in this race, traded the for several hops before Quality Road dug in gamely and won by a length and a quarter. A solid handicapper that I know suggested to me prerace that Theregoesjojo's trainer had the horse leave something in the tank during the running of the Fountain of Youth. While I do think the horse came out of that race fresh, I also think the reality is Theregoesjojo is a quality Grade III winner, an threat for Grade II wins, and not a true Grade I horse. I'll get hate mail, but that's the way I see it. The 401 Triple Crown nominees are down to about 10 real Grade I studs and a group of 30 or so Grade II's and then some serious parity competing for Allowance Races and Grade III's. No crime in being what you are, Class comes not from what was paid for the animal, but what level the horse can consistantly be competitive at.

A solid, solid win that propels Quality Road to the top of my Derby favorites and I only hope that Trainer Jerkens finds a way to keep him sharp, but I don't think I need to worry about the horse knowledge in that man's DNA.



I feel like I want the hours of my life back handicapping Dubai. I was pretty unsucessful with the races I blogged, and I did OK with some other races on the card, but blogger ethics prevent me from bragging about races I don't previously announce my intentions with. I've got the video, including a great Japanese race call of the Dubai Duty Free. The video on both race shows a rather non compelling result, not to take anything away from either winner. I was very impressed by Well Armed. I've always liked him, but perhaps never enough to pick him over his contempories like the late Go Between.

Nad Al Sheba: The Dubai Duty Free Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on Turf for 4 YO and Up.





Nad Al Sheba: The Dubai World Cup Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on dirt for 4 YO and Up.

The Nomination Is In: March 28, 2009 - The Dubai World Cup Grade I

The Turk finds himself a bit blurry eyed after spending too long last night handicapping races I most likely won't even bet. Why won't I bet them? Huge fields, plenty of parity, and unsure weather conditions. Why will I bet? Huge fields, plenty of parity, and attractive odds on some horses that have the potential to win this race in a year where no clearly superior horse is present. I was amused by the Getty image I found this morning while looking for a picture to paint a flavor of the event. While I guess I shouldn't judge behavior, you would think this young lady would show a bit of respect to the values of the country she is a visitor of? Then again, most people in modern society seem to have no real understanding of decorum anyway, but I digress.

Race 7: Nad Al Sheba; The Dubai World Cup Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on dirt for 4 YO and up, 3 YO and up for Southern Hemisphere bred.



This is a tough race to predict with the rains that are expected and the size and quality of the field. I think when life presents uncertainty to should go with what you know. Godolphin and Saeed runner My Indy will have Dettori up, and while maybe not the best horse, he will be placed in a position to succeed at the stretch, and that's all you can really ask. Casino Drive is such an intriguing horse, full of promise, full of potential. This would be as big a win as any of Better then Honour's babies have had. Too soon to have a strategy, I'll going to watch the weather, and the tote, and spread around some win bets with value, and string a few exactas together as well, keying on my A group tagged with A's and B's. Albertus Maximus and Asiatic Boy will attract alot of money. A fun race to watch, a fun day to watch, but a crap shoot more then a handicap.
I'll be back later with the Florida Derby. Good Stuff!

The Nomination Is In: March 28, 2009 - The Dubai Duty Free Grade 1

I love the races in Dubai. It's such a dichotomy; sand and manicured dirt, waterless but lush green turf, modern architecture set against Bedouin culture.

I love the big fields chasing the big purses. It is more of a World Championship then the Breeder's Cup, at least for 4 YO and up (as god forbid an American 3 YO leaves the Derby Trail.) I digress.

After 30 something pages of PP popped out of printer for Dubai World Cup night, I decided to only blog the races I thought were the most compelling. Let's get it going.

Nad Al Sheba Race 5: The Dubai Duty Free Grade I; about 1 1/8 miles on LH Turf for 4 YO and Up or 3 YO and Up for Southern Hemisphere breds.



I like the filly Vodka. I think she comes back strong in her second race after a break. I think that Balius (IRE) has a very good chance to win this as well. Both will go off at least > 7-1. My really big live and long horse is 8 YO Niconero (AUS) coming in after a long trip and 3 weeks rest.

The Turk advocates no betting strategy. With the size and parity in this field, exotic bets are out for me, so I will look to string together a few win bets and a few straight exactas based around my ratings.

I'd like to talk more, but more 'capping to do!

For the sharp eyed amongst you, that fine looking horse is none other then 2008 Dubai Duty Free winner Jay Peg.

Breeder's Cup Heavy Hitters Preview: Well Armed

Well Armed

Trainer Eoin Harty discusses Well Armed



August 24, 2008 Pacific Classic Stakes, G1. 1 1/4 on Del Mar faux dirt. Well Armed loses to Go Between by a neck.



...Go Between angled in and settled inside then off the rail on the backstretch, went three deep on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and rallied under left handed urging to gain the lead deep stretch, then gamely prevailed. Well Armed stalked off the rail the outside a rival, took the lead three deep a quarter mile out, inched away in the stretch, fought back inside the winner in the final furlong and continued gamely to the end.

The fractions were 23.4; 47.36; 1:12.20 (24.84); 1:37.06(24.86) and a final 1/4 in 24.12 for a final of 2:01.18 (A track record for Go Between)



July 19, 2008 San Diego Handicap, G2. 1 1/16 on Del Mar faux dirt



...Well Armed sped to the early lead, angled in on the first turn and set the pace inside of Global Hunter on the second turn, kicked clear under urging, came a bit off the rail in the deep stretch and held sway. Surf Cat stalked the pace inside, came out past midstretch and finished well to be second best.

The 1 1/16 mile race was run in fractions of 23.29; 46.89(23:60); 1:10.62(23:73); 1:35.14(24.52) and the final 1/16 in 6:43 for a final of 1:41.57. Well Armed never trailed.


September 27, 2008 Goodwood Stakes, G1. 1 1/8 on Santa Anita faux dirt




...Well Armed stalked outside then alongside a rival, bid three deep leaving the second turn and into the stretch, gained the lead outside foes, inched clear under urging and held gamely. Tiago unhurried outside a rival then off the rail, came out four wide into the stretch and rallied late for the place.

The 1 1/8 race had fractions of 23.26; 46.81; 1.10.31; 1:34.86 for a final 1:47.11. At the 3/4 mark, Well Armed was 3rd, 1.5 lengths back. Tiago, as Tiago will do, was 10th at that point and rallied hard.

March 29, 2008 Dubai World Cup, G1. ~1 1/4 on Nad Al Sheba's idea of dirt