Post Race Results for The Beaumont Grade 2 at Keeneland

"Past Performance is NO promise of future performance" said the bald handicapper

My last blog focused on a completely bias free handicap. My point, and quite honestly, my complete outlook on handicapping is "....it's just numbers." Give me a Past Performance filled with horses who have some history, eliminate the hype and the bias, and I can usually do some good things with the handicap.

I'd add another layer to it; Give me a race where the track is fast, there are no European Invaders, and where I don't know anything about the horses, including their names, and I'd be at my best just analyzing the numbers. I don't pretend to be normal, so what works for me doesn't work for everyone, but I admit it, as hard as I try, bias creeps into my handicaps. Sometimes the race fan in me overrules the heartless and analytic handicapper in me and I find sentimentality having some role to play in my bet.

I wanted to find a stakes race last weekend and demonstrate my long held theorem. I choose the Beaumont, a Grade 2 3 YO filly sprint at Keeneland. I pay almost no attention to 2 YOs, especially fillies, and I'm not that into 3 YO Fillies until the Kentucky Oaks so when I say I knew nothing of these gals, I knew absolutely nothing.

I've been doing this a long time. It's not often you see a straight trifecta picked by a handicapper. My long time readers know I refer to myself as a "range handicapper", I predict the range (win, win-place, place-show, show-exotic, exotic, also rans) the horses will fall in within the order of finish and I don't get that hung up on picking winners. I'm an exotic player and it's a lack of emotion and bias that I credit my success with as a bettor.

It was a good handicap: On paper, the pace and the best horses seem to be evident, and red herrings like Renee's Titan and Premier Steps (Ire) didn't fool me.

Past performance is no indication of future performance. I am lucky to hit about 4 out of 10 Superfecta's. I sometimes go 0 for 10 and then turn around and hit 6 of 10. The only reason I eck out a positive ROI is by making good investments. I told my readers I wasn't going to bet The Beaumont: it was an exercise more than a betting opportunity for me. Betting my handicap cold would have won you $400.50 on a $2 bet. I never loose sleep over the money I leave on the table in situations like this. I am starting to hit my handicapping groove again and when I'm ready to invest real cash I'll let you know.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Beaumont Grade 2 at Kee and Remembering Maram

Readers of the Turk know that one of the key things I preach is not to allow outside influences, horse hype, to interfere with your handicapping. It's a very difficult thing to do, as race fan's, we want to read and follow the sport, but to do so injects bias, other's opinions, into what we think.

Sometimes I like to handicap races where I don't have any preconceived notions of the runners. A 3 year old filly sprint race for example, like the Grade 2 Beaumont at Keeneland, provides me that opportunity.

It's just numbers to me. My handicapping of horses like this has to be, as I've seen very little video of the races these fillies have been in, nor have i seen any in person that I know of. The gals have an average of 5.45 career starts, a mix of dirt, fake dirt and turf, and plenty of work on the work tab. Numbers: as long as I have em', I'll handicap em'.

I have never done well as Keeneland since the switch to the fake stuff. the combination of limited knowledge of the runners, and a track I don't handicap well, doesn't encourage me to invest my betting capital with confidence, so I'll build a handicap, build a bet strategy, but in full disclosure, my not plop down real money.

I keep track of theoretical bets, something I have done for years. My ROI is higher on theory bets than actual bets and I think the reason is pretty obvious: The fear of losing isn't there with theory betting and it makes you a bit more daring, perhaps more reckless, and I know that some of my biggest real strikes in life is when I am a bit reckless.

Anyway, I'm not sure If I'm betting for real, but let's get after it!



Training at Hollywood for weeks now, Ciao Bella Luna returns to fake dirt and cuts back in distance, a 21% angle of Hollendorfer's.

Perhaps two safer top picks, Magical Moon and Judy in Disguise (GB) break in the middle of pack. Judy in Disguise likes to be right on the pace and has strung to very good races together, with Mike Smith up this time, third pilot in three races.

Al Stall's Magical Moon cuts back and switches from turf. As a 2YO, raced at KEE in a Grade 1 and was a game Show.

Chad Brown's Premier Steps (Ire) switches from turf, something Brown has a goose egg with in 11 tries, and Brown's fake dirt record is a goose egg as well. Brown is a wonderful young trainer, and I'd be remiss to not mention Maram, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf champion, who passed away last year, far too young. Rest in Peace Maram.

Irish Presence is one I may have wrong: Gary Stevens up, the Midnight Lute gal had a bullet at Hollywood this past week and is 3 of 4 in the money on fake stuff.

Renee's Titan comes in off a poor dirt effort at 1 mile after winning on the dirt at 6.5 panels. Only 1 win in 5 tries on fake stuff. A closer, will have to navigate traffic too. I'm not sold.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!

Rest in Peace Maram