Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: The Classic

That's Kay, the Turk Family Weimaraner, getting her Breeders' Cup handicappers homework in. We've studied some of the contenders for the Turf in our last post and today we will look at the Classic.

I'm not sure my first emotion when I look at the contenders for the Classic. Underwhelmed? Disappointed? I dunno. Sure it's exciting the idea of a filly, Harve de Grace, as a serious contender, and the idea of Uncle Mo returning to Churchill Downs where he won the Juvenile a year ago and seemingly was a Triple Crown threat that never materialized (The Timely Writer?....nice move), but the rest of the field is really lacking star power, or is it?

I've been asked to handicap this race for the Thorofan Handicappers Corner. I was honored to be chosen to handicap such a prestigious race by one of my favorite horse racing organizations so I am hopeful that I can identify someone that can come here and win as an overlay. I'm going to try and set aside the "fan" in me and take a strong look at the expected entries and see who is peaking at the right time.

Let's Get after it!

Can anyone possibly make their first dirt start and win the Breeders' Cup Classic? Can anyone make their first dirt start in the Kentucky Derby and win that? Well, Animal Kingdom did just that this year. He wanted the distance and he was a superior athlete in comparison to his competition.

Oh Turk, horse racing has a long history, it can't possible happen twice in the same year at the same track? I don't know, we've seen a filly win the Belmont for the first time since 1905, a filly win the Preakness for the first time since 1924, two fillies win the Woodward.

So You Think is a Coolmore runner trained by Aidan O'Brien. The High Chaparral(Ire)son (yes, two time Breeders' Cup Turf champion) seems like the sort of horse that could start on dirt for the first time and gobble up the distance.

2000 M.(~ 10 furlongs) Moresbridge Stakes



2000 M. (~10 furlongs) Prince of Wale Stakes rest in peace Rewilding



Irish Champion Stakes



15 October 2011 10f British Championship Stakes



Some nice effort in all these races for So You Think. Strange days indeed.

Tizway when healthy, is a dominant handicap division runner who should need no introduction. His trainer James Bond is confident. Interestingly, Trainer Bond thinks Flat Out is the horse to beat. We'll get to him soon.



2011 Met Mile



2011 Whitney Stakes at 9 furlongs



Tizway, the son of Tiznow, will be my emotional chalk for the Classic, but it's not like he isn't talented enough to pull it off. The reports of his work at Belmont, where he shipped in to run over a faster strip of dirt, have been excellent.

Flat Out has been dazzling, with last three Beyers 107,109 and 106.

2011 Suburban H. with Flat Out in a powerful five wide move at top of stretch to win by 6 lengths.



2011 Jockey Gold Cup



2011 Woodward Stakes with Harve de Grace by a length over Flat Out



Flat Out has been training sharply for his conditioner Scooter Dickey over the Churchill Downs surface.

To Honor and Serve was highly thought of by the members of the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll at the beginning of his 3 YO season.

Injuries, perhaps from some tough efforts at Gulfstream early in the year, put the son of Bernardini on the shelf.

But after being brought back slowly over the Saratoga season, even tried as a sprinter, To Honor and Serve fired off a freakish effort that highlighted his talent setting a stakes record time over a fast PARX track.

9f The Pensylvania Derby



This Optional Claimer/High End Allowance race at Saratoga was a very nice effort at 9 furlongs as well.



Stay Thirsty is another son of Bernardini that I did a horrible job judging all year. I was fairly unimpressed with him as a 2 YO (a stupid, closed minded mistake that a horse player cannot make!)but let's review how things turned around for him.

8.5f The Gotham March 2011



I rationalized the Gotham off and he did little after that until the Belmont.

12f The 2011 Belmont Stakes



I rationalized this one off too; Wet track and a perfect rail trip. He did track the pace the whole way around and he made a nice run in the last 1/16th.

...but the Jim Dandy and the Travers can't be ignored (although the fields were pretty soft...rationalizing....)

9f The Jim Dandy



10f The Travers Stakes



I think you just toss the Jockey Club Gold Cup effort but that leaves the Travers as his last good race. Not many reports of sizzling works so we'll be paying attention over the next two weeks for some hype machine comments.

Game On Dude, poor animal, not exactly a regal sounding name he was, ummm, saddled with. Luckily, were professional horse players, we don't let names influence us. Never. Maybe a little.

The Turk's favorite trainer, Bob Baffert, really got a great game effort from Game On Dude over the Santa Anita dirt strip this year, a Santa Anita main track he's 3 for 3 on this year.

The 9f Goodwood Stakes



...and a bit of a shocker in the Big Cap

10f Santa Anita Handicap



Take a look at this effort of Tizway and Game on Dude.

9f The Charles Town Classic G3, April 2011



Uncle Mo has had quite a journey: I had a 12th picture frame ordered for my wall, the wall that has the 11 Triple Crown winners on it (this is my annual optimism)

2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile



..then just a questionable plan put together by Trainer Pletcher that gave him a very long break and then a return to action in a minor stakes race.

Injury/illness kept Uncle Mo on the shelf and the picture frame went back into my drawer. The son of Indian Charlie hasn't been past 8 furlongs since April, only twice in his career, and he's never been to 10f. My fellow blogger, Brock Sheridan at The Brock Talk wrote a nice piece recently about Mo's 220 yard elephant.

Here's the 1 mile Kelso. I'm just not sure how you can take the Super Saturday races and make something from them. Look at nice middle and end and he freaked out an awesome 1:33 and change mile.



Mo's been training sharply accordinging to the Pletcher machine.

Harve de Grace. The daughter of Saint Liam has had just an awesome year. She seems poised to be the chalk for the Classic, something she's deserving of based on her campaign. You wonder if she still has enough in the tank after some pretty tough efforts this year.

2011 Delaware Handicap at 10f was my favorite race of the year so far.



2010 Breeders' Cup Distaff



Another Super Saturday performance I'm not sure you can stake alot on but a win is a win.

The 9f Beldame



The distance....I just don't know, but luckily today isn't about handicapping as much as it is reviewing the body of work that creates a Breeders' Cup Classic Champion.

While the racing may not have been indicative on Super Saturday, the commentary and insights of the E Train, Ernie Munick are always spot on



Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 28 August 2011: Travers Day Pick Six

Which makes you look thinner, horizontal or vertical stripes? The Ol' Turk doesn't have a clue about fashion but he knows that his horizontal handicapping and betting on the Travers Stakes Pick Six card made him a whole lot phatter in wallet than his "on a diet" vertical bet Pick Six effort.

The handicaps utilized my "layer handicapping" approach and the bets followed my handicaps without deviation. I did my thinking pre-race and that allowed me to sit back, not feel that sense of panic that can arise as post time approaches, and I didn't over think the races. Regardless of the surface I focus squarely on current form, past three race run lines, over time history on surface/at distance/at course, and where and against whom the animal has been running against. On turf I place great emphasis on late turn of foot.

I only feel comfortable talking about how I go about my handicapping. I don't like to read about the races I'm handicapping until after I've completed my handicapping, as I prefer to avoid the hype and bias of the writer whose income is derived from entertaining readers and not necessarily from tossing contestants, some of whom have a better story to tell than a race to run.

A factor I really discount in comparison to contemporaries who I talk shop with is pace. I take into account where each horse will most likely be at the break and then at the top of the stretch, but I do it in broadstrokes and seldom do I predict a winner on the likely pace scenario. OK Turk, WTF does all that mean? It just means I have my own, not that complicated manner of slotting the horses into expected finish. The beauty of handicapping is there is an infinite number of ways to approach the problem but the results are the results and they can be arrived at from many different roads.

Handicapping and betting are two VERY different things. Some do one well and do OK, some do neither well and some get both ends right. Forget what they are doing and ask yourself what you are doing right and wrong. Ripping up the tickets and not taking the time to do a handicapping autopsy is a huge mistake. If you take anything away from my ramblings each each, do this step and you'll see your skills increase.

I do completely ignore morning lines before I handicap and as I said, I do my best to not read about the races I'm handicapping. I treat each race with a fresh mind and no preconceived notions. Track handicappers are pretty sharp folks, some sharper than others, but pretty sharp nonetheless. I like to see where I have runners in relation to the track handicapper. What that does for me is give me feedback, something I lack in the vacuum of kitchen table 'capping. It took me years to believe in myself when I disagreed with the track handicapper. It's those differences of opinion that often lead to my best scores, the contrarian viewpoint.

Let's review and then I'll babble some more.



My list of HITS would be placing Daveron high in the Ballston Spa, not having Sassy Image to high on my board, not betting a Trifecta in the Ballerina, even if I did leave a profit on the table, having Caleb's Posse and Uncle Mo in the exacta that drove my Superfecta and having Justin Phillips higher than other bettors. On my MISSES list would be not valuing Hot Summer and over rating the chances of Precious Soul in the Victory Ride, consistently missing on Stay Thirsty, but my Travers Coil/Shackleford placings was a bust and the Pick Six in general was just a mess.

I put about $540 dollars of capital on table yesterday. I would not have hit that Pick Six if I invested all $540 on the bet or double that. I think the bet is the "bridge too far" for the average bettor and the Pick 3 and 4 are much more achievable targets. That said, the cards always offer juicy exotics that can be hit if you layer the horses properly and you build good bets. I didn't make $6 for every dollar I bet yesterday by just having good handicaps, it was sound betting practices that you learn over time. I felt comfortable that I had the exactas and then I went five and six deep for spots Place and Show and then slimmed back for fourth. That bet structure was what I used twice yesterday and I went as exactly deep as I had color coded pre race.

I hope some of what I'm saying helps someone out there sharpen their own skills. My methods came from reading the works of Brad Free, Steve Crist, Andy Beyer, Tom Ainsile and Steve Davidowitz. I enjoy the articles in American Turf Monthly as well, and I take all this and I have my own, derivative methods. I call them derivative because nothing I do I would call original.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs

The Turk took on an assignment at the Thorofan Handicapper's Corner to handicap a winner in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. For better writing and some pretty nifty handicapping, take a swing by the Handicapper's Corner as well as the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance home page for some of the most insightful takes in racing.

Two year old horses are difficult to handicap using my traditional methodology. The reason is that their past performances are fairly scant, with this field of ten averaging 3.2 starts in their careers so far. Instead of worrying about what we don't have, let's take stock in what we do have and figure out how to use it best: We have past performances with 16 Graded Stakes starts combined to glean from, we have basic pedigree information, we have trainer/jockey statistics, quite a bit of video on nearly every entrant, and most of all, we have our experience and feel to guide us. What we don't want is our heads filled with the hype laden articles that are floating around proclaiming the next Arazi or Secretariat; Remember, when looking at the winners of this race you won't find unforgettable careers, mostly mixed racing success and a few very good stallions. Let's get after it!

Post 1 Biondetti: The son of Bernardini was born in Kentucky runs in Godolphin silks for conditioner Mahmood Al Zarooni. 3 for 3 lifetime record with a win at 1 mile on Turf in Italy on a straight away, at 7 furlongs on fake dirt at Kempton and a 7 furlong straight away fake dirt run. He represents Bernadini's first Grade I winner. He's on Lasix for the first time with A. Ajtebi up, the pilot of last year's winner, Vale of York. Let's give Godolphin credit for going on the dirt, something they don't do easily or willingly.

Grade I Gran Criterium San Siro Italy



Take what you can from this turf race. Biondetti surges to the lead under a vigorous ride but never fully extends and the Place horse stops his drive just as he pulls alongside to pass. I have him somewhere around :11 2/5ths for the final 1/8 mile (very unofficial). With this being his first dirt action, I don't see enough to sway me yet but make no mistake, he's a classy horse bred for two turns and dirt shouldnt be a problem.

Post 2: Boys of Tosconova: Dick Dutrow trained, this son of Officer out of Little Bonnet maybe lacking in a Class match-up, but a win at Saratoga in the Grade I Hopeful, a win at Belmont, and a Place in the Grade II Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at Churchill Downs makes him one of the major contenders. Watch Boys of Tosconova, with R. Dominguez up, taunt them as he cruises by.






I really like the sharp and regular work that the horse has gotten at 5 and 6 furlongs since early September. Dutrow's stats are impressive anyway, but 25% of his 2 YO's win, 31% of his 60-180 day layoffs win, 30% of his last winners win. Officer was "distance challenged" but Little Bonnet felt comfortable staying and the results are intriguing.

Post 3: J.B.'s Thunder: A son of mighty Thunder Gulch out of Rebridled Dreams, conditioned by Albert M. Stall Jr. for Columbine Stable. Two starts, two wins, including the Grade I Dixiana Breeders' Futurity on fake dirt and a turf win at Saratoga. It's his first dirt effort, but he's got the pedigree for that.





He strikes the lead and he doesn't give it up in either of these races. On Breeders' Cup Friday, few closers got very close to the horse at the front by the 1/8 pole. A nice 4 furlong :47 bullet shows he will strike the lead but will he keep it is the question.

Post 4: J.P.'s Gusto: A son Successful Appeal out of Call Her Magic, trained by David Hofmans for Gem Stable. Six starts already with four Wins and one Place with a Place in the Grade I Norfolk Stakes at Hollywood, a Win at the Grade I Del Mar Futurity, as well as Grade II and III win. Not shabby but Jaycito seemed better in the last two races and that's what I take away from this. First time dirt as well, he too likes the front.





Post 5: Riveting Reason: Watch the two previous videos of the Norfolk and Del Mar Futurity and you'll find this Maiden. Blinkers on today for Korean Conditioner Cho Myung Kwon, this son of Fusaichi Pegasus will be up against it.

Post 6: Stay Thirsty: Another Bernardini son along as is Biondetti, has one win in three starts and was out finished at 7f by Boys of Tosconova in the Grade I Hopeful at Saratoga. Trainer Pletcher has worked Stay Thirsty six times since mid September at Belmont with the most impressive at 5f in 1:00 and 1/5th. Pletcher's stats are impressive: 25% winners on over 60 day layoffs, 25% 2YO, 23% sprint to route, 24% two sprints/route, 26% dirt, 22% routes. The horse is uncoupled from stable mate Uncle Mo with Castellano up, no slouch at 20% himself.

Here's the Hopeful again.



Post 7: Uncle Mo: Hard to ignore the hype here. Son of Indian Charlie, from Playa Maya (Arch) ran an incredible Grade I Champagne as the heavy chalk in early October and appears cocked and loaded for a big effort here.



Breaking his maiden by nearly 15 lengths at Saratoga on August 28



Post 8: Murjan: Another son of Officer, out of Miss Jean Cat, this Kentucky born Peruvian runner is also an impressive 3 for 3 winning by a combined 27 3/4 lengths in the process. A surprising amount of video is available, and anyone who follows racing and is on Facebook or blogs knows the passion our South American horse racing friends have! He gets 262 race winner R. Bejarano up and lasix for the first time.





Post 9: Rouge Romance: This son of Smarty Jones trained by Kenny McPeak has three starts, winning two including the Grade III Bourbon at Keeneland. A very sharp 5f bullet in :58 2/5ths over the fake stuff on October 23rd shows very tight form. McPeek wins 21% of his Turf/Dirt switches but is only an 8% (with 92 tries) in Graded Stakes.



Post 10: Jaycito: < This new star from Zayat Stables, trained by Mike Mitchell, is sired by Victory Gallop out of Night Edition .A Place in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity and a Win in the Grade I Norfolk Stakes at Oaktree at Hollywood. Again, I think he shows the best when compared with other synthetic runners horses.





So what do we make of all this? It's hard to ignore the strong dirt form of Uncle Mo and Boys of Tosconova with the tier just below them being Jaycito and Stay Thirsty. I'm going to look to cover at least three of these horses in a multi race Pick 3 and I'll build what I think is the possible Superfecta outcome for this race. As much as I'd like to show you a long price winning, I just don't see it.






The Turk is taking a handicappers holiday at the Breeders' Cup so I'm sorry if I have disappointed any of my hard core degenerate fans. I'm having too much fun seeing so many of my favorite horses and Little Turk and I are handicapping pretty good winners and straight exactas between races to keep us warm! I am really geeked up to see Gio Ponti, Goldikova, Here Comes Ben, Quality Road, Blame, Haynesfield, and Zenyatta. It's going to be a good day! That's Little Turk above with his 46-1 ticket for Shared Account. He took a position and never wavered. Money Baby

Have fun, Turk out!

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Homework Session Part 4

The Turk has a big assignment this week and one that he's woefully prepared to handle: Handicapping the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Readers of The Turk know that I'm not a big fan of the Del Mar, Keeneland or Saratoga baby watch and that two year olds just aren't my bag. That said it's a challenge that I look forward to and its not that I can't or haven't handicapped two year olds, I just don't generally care to.

In order to prepare, I have to do my homework. It's important you understand the players and without alot of information to go by on the PP's, all you really have is your eye, the pedigree, and a leap of faith.

In this fourth and final homework session for this race I present to you Riveting Reason, Rogue Romance, Stay Thirsty and the presumed morning line favorite, Uncle Mo. Let's get after it friends!

Riveting Reason: Trainer/Owner Cho Myung Kwon campaigns this son of Fusaichi Pegasus. The Foolish Pleasure is asking the question on many people's minds now, who is Cho Myung Kwon? With Little Turk hailing from Pusan, South Korea, we are partial to this runner as well.

Riveting Reason was in a good stalking position but never seemed to accelerate here in the Norfolk at the Oak Tree at Hollywood. He was striding nicely, just slow behind Jaycito and J.P's Gusto.



And another uninspiring effort by Riveting Reason in the Del Mar Futurity. Watch it again for Jaycito's strong finish and J.P. Gusto's front running.



Rogue Romance: This son of Smarty Jones trained by Kenny McPeak has three starts, winning two including the Grade III Bourbon at Keeneland. A very sharp 5f bullet in :58 2/5ths over the fake stuff on October 23rd shows very tight form.



Stay Thirsty: Another Bernardini son along with Biondetti has one win in three starts and was out finished at 7f by Boys of Tosconova in the Grade I Hopeful at Saratoga. Trainer Pletcher has worked Stay Thirsty six times since mid September at Belmont with the most impressive at 5f in 1:00 and 1/5th. Pletcher's stats are hard to gage: 25% winners on over 60 day layoffs, 25% 2YO, 23% sprint to route, 24% two sprints/route, 26% dirt, 22% routes.



And finally, Uncle Mo. A son of Indian Charlie, from Playa Maya (Arch). Pletcher's other Repole Stable runner won in convincing style in the Grade I Champagne.



Breaking his maiden by nearly 15 lengths at Saratoga on August 28



In Zen terms, we should approach this with a beginners mind. Not beginers in the sense of a neopyte handicapper but as one without a hype filled, preconcieved winner already residing within or Turk craniums.

Who's gonna win? Who knows. Uncle Mo will be a safe pick and Boys of Tosconova and Jaycito will be more stylish because of better prices, but I'm not convinced yet. I'll be back tomorrow with an initial base handicap.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!