Post Race Analysis for The Clark Handicap

Hopportunity winning the Rebel- Photo by AP

It doesn't matter sometimes if you are a visionary or just a bit lucky.  Sometimes you can do all the handicapping right and screw up the bet construction,  sometimes you can get it all wrong, or sometimes you can pass on a bet that hits.

My sin today was not betting a Super that I had nailed cold.  I focused on a Tri, didn't like the prospects of getting a return on investment and passed.

 In my pre race handicap, I had some good thoughts, but they hinged around Departing winning and Hopportunity and Constitution giving a very good showing of themselves.  Most of that happened.  I also liked the class of Protonico and the spunk of Pick of the Litter, and that was useful too.

I couldn't settle on a bet.  I ultimately liked this bet the most:

4-1-7 OVER 1-4-7-5-6-9 OVER 1-3-5-6-7-9, a $2 Tri for $134.

It just seemed illogical to me to invest that sort of cash into a race where I had the Tote boards 1-2-3 horses in my top three.  I've mastered the art of turning $100 into $50 at the race track and I try hard to avoid that.

What did I do?  I passed.  I didn't bet.  That's a skill I didn't possess in my 20's and 30's but I developed over time.  I could have bet $134 and made $300, not shabby, but I wasn't feeling it and I passed.  I will say I liked Hopportunity before the race and but I was surprised he took the chalk.  The bettors were right on Departing who will end 2014 on a much lower note than he ended 2013 with.

Moral to the story?  There is no moral, do your homework and assemble my base bet.  I had three horses (in blue) I thought could win and four more I thought had the potential to win the Trifecta. If I boxed them it would have been a losing investment, with a $420 price and a $120 loss.

I'm normally a Superfecta Bettor.  I had the Superfecta nailed.  A boxed bet wouldn't have worked at $1680,returning $1,540 for a $140 loss, but my matrix style Superfecta I normally play would have hit and hit hard:   4-1-7 OVER 1-4-5-6-7-9 OVER 1-3-5-6-7-9 OVER 1-3-5-6-7-9, a $2 bet for $472 would have returned a gain of $1,068.

I never get too emotional about money I leave on the table.  My approach is to treat each win and loss the same, analyze, see if there is anything to glean, and then move on.

Moving on....Turk out!

Thanks DRF 

The Nomination Is In: The Clark Handicap G1 at Churchill Downs

Departing (Photo by Reed Palmer Photography)

The Clark Handicap is a post Thanksgiving tradition for me like many racing fans.  It's a Grade 1, usually including some of the handicap divisions greats, vying for a last big win, possibly in an attempt to leaving a lasting impression with Eclipse Award voters.  This years, edition, not so much.  It might even be subtitled " Former Derby Darlings trying to get back to their winning ways"  as Hopportunity and Constitution were two of the biggest names in racing in February, but oh what a difference 9 months can make.  It may not be the handicap division all star game that I'd prefer, but in the horse racing game these days, you get what you get.

The track should be fast, even if the temperature a bit brisk.

Lets get after this!



I'm looking for the breakout performance that never seemed to happen this year for Departing.  Lost by a neck last time out to Pick of the Litter at KEE.  It was right there for him and he lost.



Distance isn't an issue for Departing; 3 of 3 in the money at CD, 4 of 5 in the money in 2014, 7 of 9 in the money at the distance, and a bullet 11/13 at 4f in :48 flat.

The next two are a coin toss for me, they could both win, they could both finish out of the money, I have no real notion how they will respond. Of the two, I like Hopportunity a bit better. 2nd race off the long layoff, something Baffert hits on 27% of the time.  Loved his Rebel, will see what he's got.  It means nothing today, but let's watch and remember this year's trail runners.



While we are on the nostalgia trail (which means NOTHING in racing for current form), let's look at the dream trip Constitution had in the Florida Derby.



The 3 YO Tapit would have been retired in the past, and the racing game needs more stars to come back and run, so it would be a boon to the sport to see runners like Constitution and Hopportunity find their second acts.

Today, I'm just thinking of their Class.  In a Class review, these two are near the top of the pack.  Current Form, I'm not sure.  As I said, either could win, both could finish far up the track.  I'm going to cover both and see what happens.

The next four runners I have slotted will make or break my betting I reckon, and the rest of the field I've tossed.

Easter Gift, a five year old Hard Spun (is that possible?  Time goes by too quickly!) is 0 of 2 at CD, 1 of 5 at the distance, a bit slow.

Pick of the Litter is capable of Show to Fourth, I don't think the win.  4 wins in 7 runs at the distance, 4 of 5 in the money at CD but only one win in 5 CD dirt starts.  Comes in off G2 Fayette that's posted above.

Knights Nation, 4 YO gelding, has 13 of his 18 starts on Turf and owns 1 dirt win.  Slow, but will be coming late.

Prontonico, 3 YO Giant's Causeway, I don't know what to make of.  First trip to CD. Won G3 Discovery last time out in slop.  I'm not sure I put much on that. 3 of 6 on fast dirt.  Classier than rest.



So what am I going to do with this?  The Trifecta I assembled I'm not thrilled with thinking about what the tote board odds may look like:

$2 Tri:  4-1-7 OVER 4-1-7 OVER 1-7-5-9-3-6= $56

I'll have to watch the tote board but chances are My Win and Place horse will be 1-2 on the tote board.  A $56 investment would most likely provide a negative return.

I may want to play with some combinations like this:

$2 Tri:   4 OVER 9 (value) OVER 1-7-5-9-3-6 =$10  another alternative may be 4 OVER 9 OVER 6 for $2 and not loose any sleep over it.

In this bet I single Departing (eh), single a Place horse (perhaps one of the late hard runners) and then drop in 5 into Show spot.

Again, I'll be watching the tote board to get a feel for what other bettors think before I decide on the investment.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade 1 at Churchill Downs

It doesn't get much more American than Stephen Foster:  Born on July 4, 1826, the composer of such American music classics as Camptown Races, Oh Susana!, My Old Kentucky Home are still songs that generations of kids sang in music class and learned to play on instruments.  Another great American institution, The Thorofan, invested in the growth of the American horse racing fan base, has again asked this bald idiot handicapper to opine on the races.  It's not a Pink, Blue, or Yellow sheet but its probably just as accurate.  Ignore as you will!

My success rate, measured as Return on Investment, is not very good with my Handicapper Corner's handicaps.  It doesn't help that I'm typically making Superfecta and Super High Five bet recommendations, but still, the handicapping has been dull and not very good.  In self analysis mode I think for some handicaps I was too conservative, afraid to look dumb.  In others I was wildly aggressive, on the edge of reckless.  I've learned that to be a  successful bettor I need to  approach my handicapping with consistency: I build my base handicap, regardless of value, and if I choose to take some risk on the bet structure for value at least I am doing it with eyes wide open.  

The first thing I noticed when I reviewed the Past Performances is how many of the runners you could make a legitimate win bet on: Revolutionary, Moonshine Mullin, Will Take Charge, Departing, Golden Ticket and Prayer for Relief could all hit the wire first.  With the way Long River, a 15-1 Morning Line sleeper, is training, that's seven of nine that could be in the winners circle. 

The weather should be good. The track should be listed as Fast.

Let's get after this!



I have Departing in the top spot.  It's the four year old geldings  2nd off a 180 day layoff, he's 3 of 5 at the distance, 1 of 1 at CD and 7 wins in 10 starts on fast dirt.  Trainer Stall and Albarado, up, clip along at 31% win  rate.  He's been training very sharply at CD.  I doubt I single him but I like his chances to provide value from my chalk spot.  Look for him to come off the pace.

I have late running Revolutionary in the next group back;  He came late for Show in last year's Kentucky Derby and he comes in off a Pimlico Special Grade 3 win.

Prayer for Relief has no top three finishes in three starts at CD.  Another off the pace style runner, the 6 YO sizzled in morning work across this track a week ago.  4 wins in 13 starts at the distance, 6 wins in 20 starts over fast dirt, he ran terribly in  2013 Clarke Handicap here.

The Alysheba, Grade 2, run at CD in May was an interesting race.




Moonshine Mullin should provide much of today's pace.   Will Take Charge will try and forget his non fire in the Alysheba.  Stevens is up again for Trainer Lukas and most likely is the one to beat and the expected post time chalk.  I'm a biog fan of Will Take Charge but I need to see him fire in his four year old season and I'll bet against the money on him.

Golden Ticket and Long River are collectively no wins in six starts at this distance.  Long River has been working very sharply at Saratoga and ran very well on the inner dirt at Aqueduct this past winter.

So what to do with this?  I think I'll take a position similar to my base handicap, with a horse like Departing on top and a series of Exacta Bets with value underneath like Golden Ticket and Long River.  To be decisive I'll go with 6 OVER 3-7-8. Three $10 Bets may interest me.

Whatever you do, have some fun and develop your own handicap and bet responsively.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Preakness Super High Five

"My Trip to Old Hilltop was A-OK"

The Turk Clan, and friends, had a good Black Eyed Susan Day at Pimlico.  Sister Turk got up close and personal in the Infield with a boy named Goo, while we kicked back at the 1/16 pole in the first row of the grandstand.

The day got off to a bit of rocky start, as downtown traffic got snarled up due to the President visiting (his handicapping must be done already).  We were able to finally trek the 7 miles to Pimlico and we found Lot 2, Haywood, only to find a LOT FULL sign.  No matter, a nice older fella, a Navy Vet, pulled the sign back and we settled into our seats.

My experience included a "Black Eyed Susan", a hideous concoction of Vodka and some other bitter tasting stuff and I was left with a mild buzz and a Preakness glass, the real prize.

I didn't do much handicapping for Friday's card, I wanted to just relax and make some small tote board value bets.  I will say that at least twice in the grandstand I almost saw violence erupt as the teller lines were moving at a snails pace and punters were starting to get really agitated with each other.  The whole feel of the racetrack and the staff was very old school, not particularly fan friendly, and in no way very inviting to new fans.  That said, the Nathan Hot Dog fellas were top shelf.

I'm alive in the Pimlico Special/Preakness Double.  Even that was an adventure, as the teller couldn't have been less interested in that bet and had to run it through twice because he wasn't listening very well to me.  I was happy to finally see Richard's Kid again in person, but really, why is the poor fella still running? He's not a claimer, 45 starts, 11 wins, and two plus million in earnings, enough already.

Do you really think I have any plans of trying to get a Super High Five Bet right with that crew?  I'll be placing that on my portable device and not sweating it.  I think we're looking at a several thousand dollar Super High Five (not 10's or 100's of thousands) and I've created a $168 bet that has a better chance than the PowerBall (which I have a $10 spot on with co-workers).  I think I'm going to just enjoy my day at the track and hope my one big bet hits.




Have Fun Friends, Turk Out!

Little Turk and I, Grandstand, Pimlico 

The Nomination Is In: The 100th Edition of the Louisiana Derby

What a finish!  The Risen Star Stakes horse racing fans, run at the Fair Grounds in late February was one of the more thrilling finishes this Kentucky Derby prep season.  I've Struck a Nerve, the huge long shot winner is off the Derby trail with an injury, but many of his combatants, like Code West in the shocking pink and Palace Malice in the kelley green and yellow dots, along with Golden Soul, Proud Strike, and Mylute are back in Saturday's one hundredth running of the Louisiana Derby. 

I'd like to thank The Thorofan for the opportunity to handicap what should be a wide open race.  As a race fan, this is what you look forward to: 14 runners in a prep race, trying to punch their ticket for the Kentucky Derby.  As far as I'm concerned, the Kentucky Derby Points Entry System is a rousing success.  Sure it may need some tweaks, but there isn't a darling from the 2 YO season that isn't feeling pressure to run and get points.  How can that not be a good thing!

As a handicapper, I'll often skip races like this, or more accurately, I may not build too complicated a wager around a group of horses where just about anything can happen.  I like to have a feeling that I understand the variables: pace, track condition, class, trainer motivation, and I can't say I have many of those here, or do I.  Motivation is pretty simple: trainers aren't entered here to prep for The Derby Trials, they are prepping for a spot among the Top 20 in the Derby Starting Gate.  Weather:Fair Grounds isn't a track I pay often, and one reason is this time of the year it can be a swamp and I don't like the variable, but it looks dry and it should be fast.  Pace: Titletown Five will strike the front, Code West will push the pace, but there should be a real tight grouping at the top of the stretch and the extra distance will favor the horses that don't mind dirt in the face and traffic, conditions they are indeed prepping for.  The more I type, the more I like this race.  Let's handicap it and then figure out how to wager it.  That sound you hear is Little Turk mocking me "....do you feel lucky, punk?" 

Let's get it on!

The weather has been dry and looks like Saturday will be dry, but keep your eye on track maintenance before you finalize your wagers. 

A good place to start is always some video of the most current races of some of the key horses here.

Risen Star Stakes 23 Feb 2013 FG 1 1/16 Fast 



El Camino Real Derby 16 February 2013 GGF 1 1/8 fake dirt (Nina's Dragon)



Withers 2 February 2013 Aqu 1 1/16 Inner Fast Dirt (Revolutionary)






Al Stall has two horses in this race, recently nominated for the Triple Crown, and I'm backing Departing for the win.  a sizzling :47 1/5 4f bullet at FG off a drawing away 1 mile effort at Sam Houston. This War Front son will like the distance and has a great post draw.  If B. Hernandez, up, a 19% winner at FG, can negotiate the traffic I like his chances. 

Code West is the real deal,  perhaps the class of the field, a Lemon Drop Kid son out of Charitabledonation, a VA bred (ohh, my beloved Quality Road, where art tho?), gamely fought in the Risen Star and I have no reason to doubt he won't have that same fight here. 

Revolutionary most likely beat nobody on the inner dirt in the Withers.  That's not the point.  I loved the way he navigated traffic and tight space.  I don't like that Castellano has run at FG this year but he's a darn good rider and there will be traffic again. He's the Morning Line favorite, I'm betting against win but I think he'll be top 4.

Palace Malice, son of mighty Curlin, has Prado up, his third pilot in his last three races.  A steady old hand like Prado may settle him down.  I think he's talented but he has to show it more, so this looks like a great spot to do that.  He ran gamely as well in the Risen Star, no reason he can't win this as well but I have him in the Exotic Mix with a Place or Show possible, top 6 expected. 

Titletown Five is going from 6 and 7 furlong sprints to routes, a move Lukas is only 4% at in 45 tries.  I think he'll be going backwards at the wire and I have him in the exotic mix as possibly holding on for fourth but most likely he'll be well back.  Bet accordingly.

In the "rip the heart out of the Turk" role is Mylute, Sunbean and Golden Soul.  Any of those could move up to Show or Exotic.  Mylute has the blinkers off and the local runner should be a nice price. Sunbean, Stall's other late nominee, has three FG wins all in restricted State races but wow he's been running well.  At Fair Grounds a horse like this can and does win.  I'll be watching the price, currently a 12-1 morning line, and I'll play him in a few wagers.  Golden Soul, with Calvin Borel up, seems like he is dangerous, but we'll find out. 

So what to do? 



I'm going to go with a 10 Cent Superfecta, rare for me, but a reflection of the fact that these prep races are a bit of a crap shoot for the Ol' Turk and my personal ROI on these events isn't where I'd like it to be.  I built a pretty good handicap, it's not too conservative, its not too risky, and I think my bet construction is plausible.  Too bad the horses don't ever seem to get the memo!

Whatever you do, have fun with it;  Do you homework, don't bet the family mortgage money, and if you have a gambling problem, try to get some help, this should be entertainment, not something that strains your relationships.

Turk Out!