Showing posts with label Paddy O'Prado. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paddy O'Prado. Show all posts

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 21, 2011: The Late Pick 4 Preakness Day at Pimlico

Is your bourbon glass half full or half empty?

I find myself asking that as I sat here alone going through the days events. On one hand I am blogging about a day with an over $5,000 profit, yet, as I studied the race chart, I realized that I had the Super High Five choices cold within my Superfecta bet on the Preakness, and the Superhigh Five paid a whopping $49,742.

I left alot of money on the table with a bet I never considered. My creature of habit ways that I preach as the secret to my consistent results can sometimes work against me when considering new ideas.

My nature is half full and I'm not regretful at all. I'll learn from this and when I have the feeling like I had today I'll consider the Super High Five and maybe karma will be there for me.

Let's get after it!

Pimlico Pick 4 Race 9-12



i could taste this Pick Four and in the end it didn't work out. I was high on Shackleford for the Kentucky Derby but I really thought the speed wouldn't carry today and it did.

Race 9 started great for me; I loved Shared Account but I went into the race planning to bet against her and I nailed No Explaining cold. I'm a big Roger Attfield fan over the grass and his filly looked great up the stretch. I placed for me a rare win bet which paid $8.80 and I had a simple four horse superfecta box that I cashed as well.

I passed on betting in race 10 with the scratches, especially Pleasant Prince, my chalk. I covered Apart in the Pick 4 and stayed alive. I like the way the colt battled, something I hadn't seem much in him previously.

I was high on Baryshnikov in race 11 and he only faltered ounder a gritty effort by Paddy O' Prado who I wisely covered in the Pick 4 to stay alive again.

And finally in the Preakness I had tunnel vision on betting the Superfecta and never considered the Super High Five. Never once did I consider the bet. I'm not too proud to admit mistakes and I'll learn from it. Even the Ol' Turk learns new tricks as time goes by. I went deep into my handicap for the Superfecta, skipping over only Flashpoint who I thought would rabbit and falter, which he did. I didn't cover Shackleford in the Pick 4 as I thought he'd fizzle and die to, but in reality, I was too conservative. Adding him to my Pick 4 would have cost me an additional $96 and I would have netted $255. I don't like to over cover in the P4, so ( have to love with it.

I'm not going to sing the blues about woulda, shoulda, coulda bets. I hit a big time signer and I was all over this card as well as the Black Eyed Susan card. Staying consistent and keeping an open mind about opportunities like the Super high Five is the lesson I'll take from this.

I'm drained. Turk Out!

Saturday, October 2, 2010

The Nomination Is In: Belmont Park October 2, 2010; The All Grade I Pick 4

It's hard to put into words what Joe Hirsch represents to me. You meet so few people in life that you can say that their integrity is without question. You meet so few people in life that did things their way and in the process defined themselves through an unyielding pursuit of perfection within their careers. The greatest tribute to any person is to remember them after they pass away. Elites in society since the dawning of the Enlightened Age built monuments to their greatness while on Earth and their names adorned these physical objects long after their bones turned to dust. Mr. Joe Hirsch isn't remembered because he built a bridge or a building, but because he was revered, honored by the sport that he served. When you wonder what happened to the greatness of horse racing, ask yourself where the dignity and culture of horse racing went to. Ask yourself if dignity can be found at an off track betting parlor. Ask yourself where are the ambassadors to the sport and where its cultural relevance is. Joe's voice has been replaced by legion. The new media has expanded to fill the void left by fading newspaper and magazine coverage. Joe's legacy in print carried on, Joe's legacy of grace, integrity, class and style needs to find its Renaissance. The greatest sport on earth cannot be diminished by the failings of it's human leaders and lets hope that someone will one day have the chance to the next Joe Hirsch instead of toil in virtual anonymity. Let's get it on!

Belmont Park Race 7-10 Late Pick Four



It's wonderful to find weekend after weekend relevant racing at Belmont in the fall and today's edition of Jockey Club Gold Cup Day is no exception. Today is the last prep for many of these horses whose next stop is The Breeders' Cup in early November. The Turk spent most of the week in the greater NY area, and while he would have liked to have stayed for the event in person, he's going to enjoy it plenty with Little Turk from the comfortable surroundings of home, but we are getting pretty excited about our road trip to Louisville for the Breeders' Cup, now just a few short weeks away.

We have an interesting and challenging pick Four in front of us, made more challenging by the incredibly wet weather to hit Elmont in the past few days. Without a very warm sun, the idea that the track or turf will improve to fast or firm seems unrealistic. Make sure your first stop is to See the track conditions, the current weather, and the scratches and changes, as factors beyond the past performances may seriously alter the landscape. I based my handicap on yielding turf and a sloppy main good main track.

In Race 7 we have the Grade I Flower Bowl Invitational . Making arguably the most anticipated arrival from Japan since Casino Drive is Red Desire, grand daughter of Sunday Silence. This 4 YO has beaten and been beaten by some of the best Grade I international talent out there. Getting Lasix for the first time, I'm downgrading just slightly because of the track conditions she'll face, even with wily K. Desormeaux up (not my pick at Belmont all things being even). I'm backing for her first win in 5 starts in 2010 Forever Together. A disappointing last race in Saratoga for Sheppard's runner, I like her on the softer turf and I think Sheppard is a master at preparing for a season's big moment, and the next six week is the season for this Champion. Gomez up. The race features plenty of questionable current form and I like Shared Account, training well since the Diana to be fresh. Trainer Motion is clipping along at 24% off 61-180 day layoffs. I backed Ave (GB) in the Beverly D. and was shocked that she was the post time chalk and she didn't handle the race that well. Has shown an ability to come back strongly in first race back off layoff and has handled soft turf very well in the past. Attfield and Castellano combine for 44% winners on 9 starts. I'd be shocked if Kertanna came up for better than Show. I'm thinking superfecta this race as well and will back three most likely for the P4.

Race 8 is the Grade I Beldame. A six horse field is packed with quality and a bunch of horses who are glad to stop being measured against Rachel Alexandra. Desormeaux, up on Unrivaled Belle, gets my nod here. Trainer Mott at 20% winners on 61-180 day layoffs and the girl has been resting since two Grade I's where she ran a flat effort from the Place spot and couldn't advance and refused to retreat. Came on most people's radar with her stunning defeat of Rachel Alexandra at Churchill Downs, the race where you had to start to worry if the defending Horse of the Year would ever regain her 2009 form. Persistently, the latest Rachel Alexandra slayer, seems to be in a good spot in her form cycle and I like the Phipps Stable runner to give a strong effort today. Life At Ten has four wins in five starts and gave an incredible effort in a bizarre speed duel with the previously oft mentioned Rachel Alexandra in the Personal Ensign. I have no reason to believe that effort took a toll on the 5 YO Malibu Moon mare but that's what I'm saying. Bonnie Blue Flag snuck in under the radar ever so slightly in the Grade I Test and has been training awfully well for Baffert who puts Gomez up. Depending on the price at post time, I may W-P-S this 3 YO Mineshaft daughter.

In Race 9, the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic I'm leaning towards Never on Sunday (Fr), another in a long line of Biancone strong turf runners. An eleven horse field, the turf will weigh in on the outcome and as usual, a strong late kick from a pack of horses 1/8 out will be the margin of victory. Paddy O' Prado will get lots of play, rightly so, but facing older horses is never easy and it's the longest race he's run, something is 274 Tomlinson Rating discounts. Those ratings are a minor tool so don't get too hung up on that, I just like others here, like Winchester, trained by turf master craftsman Clement. Should be one hell of a race!

And in the main event, Race 10's Jockey Club Gold Cup, I'm inclined to single Blame but I'm going to take the extra expense and slip in a value horse, which to me Haynesfield is. one win on sloppy dirt and a 460 Tomlinson rating for the 4 YO Speightstown son, toss the Whitney and focus on the Suburban and his 4 wins at Big Sandy, with R. Dominguez up, and a trainer/jock combo clipping away at 32% at BEL. In a real contrarian view, I'm discounting Rail Trip who will have real mud tossed in his 5 Yo face for the first time and instead backing Darley runner Tranquil Manner to bring a good price onto the ticket. I never know what to do with Fly Down.

Last week's post race analysis is up below after the Turk couldn't get to it in a busy week. I had a nice Superfecta win in the first race and ended up slightly ahead on a day when I got little right. Always be honest with yourself about the good work and your bad.

Post Race Analysis of the Late Pick 4 at Belmont September 25, 2010.