The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, usually focusing on Turf Racing and Exacta Betting. I said normally because today I'm handicapping the Jersey Short Pick Six (20 cent minimum), which incorporates The G3 Molly Pitcher, The G1T United Nations and the G1 Haskell. There was a time when this blog focused on Superfecta Betting but I've never been much of a horizontal bettor. It's not that I can't pick winners, it's part of the job description, but I never wanted to invest the time or the gambling capital needed. As the Turk nears retirement, I can see a day coming in my future where I get back to handicapping whole cards for mental exercise and relaxation, and I do think horizontals will be my thing as I spend full days in Hawaiian shirts without a care in the world. That's if the sport survives, but that's another rant for another day,
Full disclosure, I'm not betting my Pick 6, it's purely a mental exercise for me right now. I'll most likely paly most of these races as Win Bet or Exacta, but the Pick 6 betting strategy I don't have enough time into thinking about and I will revisit it another day. If you are into the horizontals, today may be the day to focus on the $500,000 guaranteed Pick 4 Race 9-12 or the $250,000 guaranteed Late Pick 5, Race 10-14.
Let's get after it!
Monmouth Park: Races 8-13 P6
In race 8, I have Late Speed with Proxy/6 and Early Speed with Whelen Springs/7. I see them as the class of this race, and they checked all my boxes for class, recent form, performance.
If I'm still alive after Race 8 (which is not a given!), I go into two races that I plan to single. In Race 9, I went seven deep with potential win candidates but I'm singling Fore Harp/9 with Paco Lopez (29% MTh) up. slight cut back, great recent form cycle, Trainer/Jock solid.
I've played risky and lose, and if I'm still alive (it's gambling but...) in Race 10, the G3 Molly Pitcher I'm singling Search Results/4. Brown/Rosario 20% this rolling year , Brown's 34% at Monmouth, 30% off the 40 ish day layoff, and just great form.
In the Grade 1 United Nations, it's hard not to root for Red Knight. The 9 YO has a G1 and G3 win this year and placed in a G2. Was a bit fractious in the gate in the Manhattan last time out. I expect him to be post time favorite which is wild, but I'm covering some value with him who I really like, Catnip/3 and Planetario (Brz)/6.Catnip is very intriguing, training well, winner in G3 Monmouth last time out.
In the Haskell I'm not looking towards the Kentucky Derby winner, Mage. Next time out I will like him more, but I'd like to see how he bounces back. I really like Salute the Stars/3; Winner last time out here, improving and value. Geaux Rocket Ride/1, Tapit Trice/5, Extra Anejo/7 and Arabian Knight/8 are all solid and to me, a cut above the rest. Great betting races in this Pick 6. I don't believe I'm alive in this thing, but we solider on!
Finally, in Race 13, Boston Princess/2, Cecile/7 and Fortineno (Ire)/9 are my choices as best of the field.
Wasn't a great post, I think I'm burned out from such compelling fields and heavy handicapping. I'll unwind it tomorrow.
Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, focusing on turf racing and exact betting, and I am the Turk. For those of you that don't know me, I started handicapping at Saratoga in the summer of 1986 and started this blog in 2007. I like older runners over grass, as I find the data available on them, as well as their long careers as stakes runners, compelling. I'm not that wrapped up in Triple Crown euphoria, but I watched the Kentucky Derby for the first time since 2019 and handicapped it for the first time in many years, and do I love the handle and the big fields. Chaos pays. I did win the Trifecta on the Turf Classic and I won the Exacta on the Kentucky Derby, but I only netted about $46 dollars across both. I wasn't a very sharp bet constructor, but better than a sharp stick in the eye.
Today is more like the typical race I handicap, a Graded Stake older horse turf race, which I generally like between 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles in length to handicap. I'm not a marathon handicapper and I'm not a one turn sprinter handicapper either. Know thy self!
So what to do with this? Lets start with a piece of very relevant video, the Grade 2 Elkhorn from KEE on 22 April
I like how the four year old gelded Verstappen went eye to eye with the veteran Red Knight and found the will to pull ahead. Don't underestimate the competitive nature in video handicapping analysis. Everyone else in the Elkhorn that is going here did what you would expect, running style wise.
I wanted to find some video on Warren Point (GB), the 4 YO gelded son of Dubawi (Ire). This is over fake dirt from last October. Good staking trip and great late turn of foot.
I don't know if the Morning Line spread will hold, as I value Verstappen much more than the Belmont track handicapper did. I plan on putting Verstappen/4 and Warren Point (GB)/2 OVER 4-2-1-6-3, a $2 Bet for $16.
Have fun with it friends.
Turk Out
This is not a race or a track I would generally handicap. It's not that I'm biased, I just find the variables too many and the motivations of the connections too varied regarding the starting of turf runners in a northern climate track in late November. You have the tight inner track, the weather, the horses who are building towards next year, the horses who are looking for one last kick at the can, the grizzled vets who are on their way to amassing 50 starts in their careers. You get it all post Breeders' Cup, late season racing. All that said, what these types of races are good for to me is isolation: Almost all the runners are outside of the hype and BS marketing that can skew a horse players opinion of a race, and quite frankly very few of them I have played this year. It allows me in the isolation of just my red gel pen annotated DRF Formulator PPs (an unpaid endorsement) to study the data and bet purely on what I see on paper and a bit of video.
Let's get after it!
The NYRA website is one of the more friendly horse player track sites in my opinion. You'll find scratches and changes and track condition here. The weather Friday/Saturday is for rains to end around 4 PM Friday and be pretty dry and windy after that. The inner turf track is listed as Good right now, I can't imagine it getting much better or worse but I'll take note of track conditions at end of today. This is an inner turf race, you'll find a press release here describing the new inner turf course which was unveiled in late 2018 replacing the "all weather" inner track. I have never played it, but take into account the turns are tight and the field is big. The race does not start in the chute.
I'd argue the finish line is off a bit but you get the idea.
Sadler's Joy on pure class, current form, solid connections. If I bet the race I'll most likely single him but I really need to get a feel from the tote board what the value proposition is on an exacta or trifecta. Comes in off two solid Grade 1 efforts. His late speed, tactical speed and the race distance should allow him to close but there is a chance he made be further back at the top of the stretch than he may normally like. Again, based on tote board, I may cover him in place and show but a lot of that depends on the price I get for the four horse group I have in yellow.
I'll work backwards. Red Knight is intriguing but may come to odds with a shorter price than morning line. I love the Alvarado/Mott 25% strike rate at AQA with 72 starts. Cutting back off a win. Ran last year's edition of race (5th).
Roger Attfield's Tiz a Slam is training exceptionally well at Woodbine and ships in for this. Late speed, cutback distance. I don't care for gate position so his trip will have so much to do with his outcome.
I really like Nakamura. Training well for Conditioner Motion, this 4 YO son of Motion's most famous trainee, Animal Kingdom (although Turk's favorite was Shared Account, daughter of another Turk Favorite Pleasantly Perfect- I think I digress) Ilike the late speed. 5 of 5 In the money in 2019 (one bump from 4th from DQ), 10 of 12 in the money over grass.
A million dollar purchase, Marzo has earned $263,000 in 16 lifetime races, the gelding goes for Trainer Michael Maker after bouncing through alot of barns. 7 of 9 in the money in 2019, 7 of 8 in the money over turf, alot of potential in the right hands and patience level.
Glorious Empire is of course dangerous. 8 YO deserves to wind down soon and this may be the swan song. 6-1 morning line seems generous, I don't see him in the top four.
Red Right Hand is interesting. 6 of 7 in the money in 2019, early tactical speed, I question if the gelded son of Looking at Lucky is good enough, fast enough, to step forward and beat the top of my chart. I don't think so, yet.
Another that is very interesting to me at the start of 2020 will be 4 YO Petit Fils (Fr) trained by Christophe Clement. Clement is 9% first time Lasix, 10% First Time Trainer, 4% first time North America. This talented gelding I will have my eye on next few starts.
This is purely a tote board play for me. I feel pretty strongly that this is Sadler's Joy race to lose. I will need to believe the tote board would reward me for his misfortune. I'd love to see him get bet down to 6-5 or better and then I would come in with a box 1-3-4-8, a $2 Exacta for $24.
