Post Race Analysis for Race Day April 11, 2009: The Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby

The Little Turk strikes. Pre race, I talked about the work that General Quarters was putting in at Churchill Downs, including a 5f in :58 work. I was impressed and made a note that if he started the Derby, that type of speed on that surface would bode well. I like General Quarters, but not enough to bet him to win, but the beauty of being a 9 year old handicapper is no fear. The Little Turk was rewarded with a $30.60 win bet, which to him meant more Star Wars Legos. Hold Me Back had a good effort. Mafaaz broke in the air and showed his abilities as well as his inexperience all in the span of 2 minutes. Nothing about this race changed my mind from my pre-race comments; There were some nice horses here, lots of parity, but few world beating Grade I types. I credit consistency with my exacta win, which paid a cool $117.60. I made my handicap, I worked my handicap, I followed my rules about when to bet or not bet Trifectas and Superfectas, and I cashed a workman-like ticket. I said pre-race that if I won money at this race I wouldn't gloat, and I'm not. Little Turk guessed and his guess negated 2 hours of handicapping analysis on my part. The 2 hours of work allowed me to make educated bets and the one I expected the least, hit. Consistency. Robert Pirsig's Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Mechanics teaches much about the pursuit of quality in life. I like to think I apply the metaphysics of quality to my 'capping. A Turk has to have standards. I'm proud of the Little Turk. He listens to me talk about the horses, he watches the replays when I blog, and he has a fantastic memory for what impresses him. He seized on General Quarters not because of the name, but because of what he saw with his eyes. Trip handicappers everywhere, rejoice.

Race 9: Keeneland; The Blue Grass Stakes Grade I; 1 1/8 on fake dirt for 3 YOs.





Race 11: Oaklawn: The Arkansas Derby Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.

I wasn't surprised to see Papa Clem take this one. As I said pre race, Papa Clem is battle tested and has consistently raced against the best in the 3 YO class and has acquitted himself well. Old Fashioned has an effort that Larry Jones can build on. You'd like to see more desire to finish, but this is still a fine colt. I think it was a weak field, or more appropriately as i said pre race, a field of parity outside of the top two. My exotics were mostly blown up by the presence of Summer Bird, a horse that Mrs. Turk identified as live and long. The exacta payout was a result of the consistency I have been preaching; Build your handicap, work your handicap, bet no more then you feel comfortable losing.





Little Turk, Mrs. Turk, and The Turk himself colored Easter Eggs tonight. Not satisfied with his domination of the handicapping world, Little Turk left his stamp on the symbol of the secular holiday as well. I thank the higher power who brought this little boy to me from half a world away. He's someting special!

The Nomination Is In: April 11, 2009: The Arkansas Derby GII

The Turk got on a rolling rant this morning when writing up the Bluegrass Stakes. He'll do his best to avoid that again. This is an interesting race, a Grade II with more Grade I talent then the Grade I Blue Grass. But like that race, a mixed bag of current form and surface switches means a bunch of parity on paper. Where I think this race is different is at the top. Old Fashioned lost the Rebel and you would think the sky fell in. The horse can still flat out run, and run at this distance. He'll be challenged for sure and he's not the dominant force that the hype machine made him out to be, but he'll win more races then most and he's trained by the best. For the sharp eyed amongst you, that's 2007 Arkansas Derby Winner, the mighty Curlin with Albarado up.

Race 11 Oaklawn Park: The Arkansas Derby Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



No condescending rants, I'll limit those to one per day. I will preach consistency, and I will apply that with my bet strategy that will key on Old Fashioned on most tickets to win, but I may make an argument for any of my A's.

Little Turk likes Old Fashioned as well and Mrs. Turk is hunting for ROI nirvana with Summer Bird.

Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 14, 2009

The Turk had what he likes to call a mental health afternoon. After retrieving Kay from the vet, I had nothing to do except take care of my sick pooch, and watch the ponies. It was a good day, with a mixed bag of handicapping, as well as the biggest one day payout I've had in 2009. I don't want to be a windbag, so let's get right to it!

Race 4 at the Great Race Place, bankrupt Santa Anita Park: The San Felipe (Grade II); 1 1/16 miles on "pro-ride" for 3 YOS.



No big surprises. I was happy to see Pioneerof the Nile win impressively, but would have been more impressed if the field was a bit stronger. I don't see how this race tells us anything more about this horse then we already knew. I placed no bets on this race but would have lost the few exactas I had in mind, as New Bay collapsed after an impressive first 6 furlongs.




Race 9 at Fair Grounds: The Louisiana Derby (Grade II): 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.

The Turk felt good about this race. I loved the field and the more I studied the race, the better I felt, which is usually a sign that I will not only lose my bets, but be embarrassed by my choices. Not today! Readers of the Turk know that I'm not about the betting, and that exotic betting strategies don't interest me. I re-do the morning lines for probable finishes and most of the time I'm content with just seeing how it goes. There is one betting situation I like to take advantage of: The chalk who I feel confident will win and several other horses with OK odds of 3-1 or higher that I can fill tickets out with. I generally avoid expensive boxes unless its a 1o cent super. I felt really good about my top six horses, and I liked my one-two combo enough to anchor everything to them. Nearly six hundred dollars on less then 20 dollars in bets. I'd like to say that happens all the time but....






Race 10 at bankrupt Gulfstream Park, The Gulfstream Park Handicap (Grade II); 1 mile for 4 YOs.



I felt as good about Bribon(Fr) as I generally get, so this is more indicative about my skill level then the last race was. I had six dollars on three trifectas that I donated.



And the shocker of the day, Race 10 at Oaklawn Park, The Rebel (Grade II): 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.



My cousin Marge asked me on Facebook if I had any good Irish named horses to recommend to her. I told her Win Willy was a huge longshot that would pay over 50 bucks on a 1 dollar bet. Well, I was right and wrong. Win Willy did win but he paid $56.80 on a buck. Wish I would have got a piece of that action.

I don't think this means much. I think Old Fashioned and rider Dominguez thought they had it in the bag and nobody read that memo to Win Willy. Current form for the first Saturday in May starts about 1 weeks from now. Ramp up in a week, have a monster final prep and work fast and strong for 3 weeks, and if Old Fashioned does that, nobody remembers The Rebel in mid March. It is troubling, but not a show stopper. The track was listed as good. No excuses please. I tried to illustrate in the above spreadsheet how wildly wrong the betting public had this one.



And the Turk didn't handicap or watch this race, but the 11th at Tampa Bay Downs, The Tampa Bay Derby (Grade III), 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.



I'm going to have to sort this one out. General Quarters has flirted with my interest, and this one is more significant then what happened with Old Fashioned, as he just never fired. I really liked this race though. Musket Man was flyin'

The Nomination is In: March 14, 2009 - The Rebel, Grade II

The race that many people will be watching today is The Rebel, and the colt that people will be watching is none other than Old Fashioned. Trainer Larry Jones marches some fine three year olds towards the first Saturday in May, and he's ramping his charges up slowly, trying to do right by them. I wonder if he ever considered shipping to the Louisiana Derby, but he knows more about his business then I do. The Rebel was a Grade III last year, and pictured is a horse that the Turk isn't too familar with, Sierra Sunset, winner of the 2008 Rebel Stakes, with Christopher Emigh up. Photo by Danny Johnston.

Race 10: Oaklawn Park: The Rebel, Grade II: 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.



I think Old Fashioned should and will win this race. When I have that type of certainty in my bones I like to build straight tickets from my ratings board that will include some value. I'll be watching the tote as always in the hunt for value, but I'm intrigued by the lightly raced Hamazing Destiny as a possible ticket gate crasher. Wise Kid and Silver City look primed to contend. This is a tough race for Old Fashioned, as he can only satisfy expectations by winning.

The Turk has been typing way too much the past few hours. It's time to watch more ponies prance.

Post Race Analysis for Raceday February 16, 2009

Oaklawn Park Race 9: Southwest Stakes Grade III; 1 mile on dirt for 3 YOs.

The Turk likes to wax poetic about learning and evolving as a horseplayer. Last night I wrote about being too conservative when I had a nice bet on the Dearly Precious at the Big A. It was a five horse race and I knew, as many others did, that my top three graded horses would finish in the top three, yet I was too conservative to place a creative bet and pocket an OK tri payout.

I'm still good with passing on the Dearly Precious bet. I'm a handicapper, but not a big bettor. My game is small bets, mid sized rewards, and I also believe strongly in the best bet is often the one you don't make. With all that said, with the size of the field today, and the number of quality horses that were going off at long odds, the light clicked on that I had a betting situation and I wondered how I would approach it.

Resetting the situation, I felt Old Fashioned was the best horse in this race, but I thought Silver City had a good chance based on current form. I graded them both A plus horses, and to me there was a good rift between these two and my next highest graded horse, Poltergeist.

This morning, while I handicapped the Southwest I thought there was a pretty good chance of a pretty good sized tri payout, especially if one of the longer odd horses rounded out the ticket. As a handicapper, even one as conservative as me, when you feel pretty good, you have to let it ride.

With my belief that the top two horses would finish 1-2 or 2-1, I decided to place a series of tri bets and hope for the best. It worked and paid $111 dollars.



Obviously my gamble isn't worth it if the third choice of the bettors finishes third. I took a chance, which isn't like me, but again, I felt pretty good. My blog isn't about betting theory or even betting strategy. I fancy myself a horse race analyzer who occasionally bets. Here's hoping I can keep my current very hot streak alive, but any horseplayer worth his red flair pen knows I'll run cold soon.

I'll order a few bourbons tomorrow on the airplane to celebrate.

The Nomination is in: February 16th, 2009

The Turk is very interested in the Southwest today at Oaklawn. 10 of the 401 Triple Crown nominees are present, which means someone has a chance to announce themselves as a real contender, but many more will be exposed as good horses who shouldn't be spoken of in the same breath as Triple Crown.



It seems to me that Silver City and Old Fashioned are the two best horses in this race. I believe, as many others do, that Old Fashioned is a special horse; Good at 2 YO but not rushed, allowed to be a horse for a long break after Thanksgiving, working steady and fast, and the absolute best Trainer working in North America right now, Larry Jones. Jones saddled 477 runners in 2008. It was too many for a trainer who believes in the traditional ways of doing things, the right way of doing things. For all those reasons, Old Fashioned is going to be fully prepared for the Derby, but maybe he's not at his absolute best today. The competition to garner the earnings in this era of fewer prep races must be intense. I think Old Fashioned could win this race even at 90% effort.

I think Silver City is a fine horse. The Unbridled's Song son may be a classic distance runner, but he'll have to prove himself at longer distances. William Calhoun, who saddled 866 runners in 2008, winning 26% of the time, including a gaudy 28% on dirt, 27% of last start winners and 26% off >31 day layoff, has been working Silver City in a mixture of 1 mile breezes and 4 and 5f bullets.

After the big two, there are some interesting horses running today that could take a real leap up in profile, including one I don't have the guts to pick too high, but I go hmmmmmm when I look at his run lines, Kick On. I don't like his post position, but he's working really well and fast. At 1 mile, with the speed he's been flashing, you never know, especially if the fractions get numbing. He's flashed early speed in his races but faded, so well see.

On an unrelated note, the Turk is now a Thorofan. After reading the news that Turk jock favorite Richard Migliore joined the fledgling group, I wanted to be a part of a grass roots organization like this that is about the fans and growing the sport. Thorofan should consider the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance as a strategic partner, providing a fan voice to the fan group.

For more information: www.thorofan.com