Post Race Analysis for The Jerome at Aqueduct

El Kabeir winning Jerome: Photo by NYRA/Adam Coglinese

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  Saturday's handicap was a good example of taking what a race offered, both in the handicap and with the bet construction.  OK, what do you mean by that dribble? I'm trying to say that this was a pretty easy race to decode and bet.  I think El Kabeir is a pretty nice horse, Cairo Prince I don't know, but a nice horse and the field had just a few competent runners and then a bunch of horses that had no business running in a graded stake. I gave out four possible exotic bets pre race and one Super and Tri would have won cash.  Let's recap from the pre race handicap....

a $0.1 Super:  7-9 OVER 4-7-8-9 OVER 1-2-4-6-7-8-9 OVER 1-2-4-6-7-8= $11.20.  The $2 Super paid $559.00 and the ten cent cashed $27.95.

7-9 OVER 4-7-8-8 OVER 1-4-7-8 OVER 1-2-4-6-7-8 =$6.00 BUST ($6.00)

Trifecta:  $0.50  4-7-8-9 OVER 4-7-8-9 OVER 1-4-7-8-9= $18  (Bust $18)


Trifecta $1.00 7-9 OVER 4-7-8-9 OVER 1-4-6-7-8=$22 or $11 for a $0.50 lottery ticket which paid $90.75.

Just betting the four bets dumb would have returned $118.70 with a net return of $72.50.

As I said pre race, I was more interested in watching the race than having ROI, but I don't invest to lose so a nice 156% ROI on one race is icing on the cake.

So what went well?

• I didn't value Ostrolenka as high as the bettors did.  I'm not sure what Pletcher's Musket Man son will become, but I hated the Remsen and wasn't sold today.
• I should have singled El Kabeir but a newly minted 3 YO doesn't deserve that sort of respect.  I looked for value but had him covered.
• I had General Bellamy in the show spot discounting Royal Burgh.  Pletcher's Street Sense runner also had a poor Remsen and I discounted him at my own peril in my Tri's.  

For anyone new to my blog, The Turk doesn't follow 2 YOs at all, so this is a wondrous time of discovery for me.  "A time of discovery" and "betting cash" isn't always a good mix and often this presents the investor a chance to turn $50 into $25, but racing is also about patterns and pattern identification.  The mixture of quality in this race set up for me a classic scenario with the best horse near the front in my bet construction, the best of the rest covered and the rest tossed.  It doesn't always unfold like that but when it doesn't in hindsight it seems so obvious.

Yes, Kentucky Derby points were awarded blah blah blah...There are MUCH better blogs to address that sort of thing.  Come to think of it, there are much better blogs period, but you must have not got that memo.  I'm glad you didn't and thanks for reading.

Enjoy Friends this Feast of the Epiphany.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Jerome Grade 3 at Aqueduct

El Kabeir: Photo by Reed Palmer Churchill Downs

Happy New Years friends and readers of The Turk and Little Turk.  This is the eighth year of this blog, and while never a "must read", I like to think that it has been a consistent no bullshit, no ego, handicapping analysis forum.  I modeled the blog in the image of three of my handicapping heroes, Brad Free, The Happy Handicapper, Bob Summers, and Steve Crist. I'd be remiss in not adding an honorary fourth member to that list, as my Aunt Rosie was the one who introduced me to the horses way back on 19th Street on Saturday afternoons.  Aunt Rosie loved the grey horses and she'd like El Kabeir, pictured to the left winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Grade 2 at Churchill Downs in late November.  The running line reads "...lasted late, all out."  We like that sort of effort, and this Scat Daddy son may have a bright future.  In my eighth year I plan to continue to bring the heavy hitting handicapping that my demanding readers expect.

Let's get after this!




El Kabeir is a serious 3 year old right now.  4 of 5 in the money, a big price tag at sale, a Grade 2 winner, an accomplished and still peaking sire in Scat Daddy, this Florida bred still needs to learn to rate, still has much to do, and will be at the far outside on a funky track.  I like him but I'll be betting for him to get nipped at the wire.  So who then....

I'll be backing Ackeret, more of a sprinter but this is short enough for him I think and the barn goes 17% in sprint to routes.  Ortiz Up for Rodriguez and they clip along at 26% together at this track.  Feast or famine, not singling.

Nasa and Ostrolenka are in my next tier of runners.  Nasa has the races biggest Tomlinson number at 394 but has also been used as more of a sprinter. The PA bred is trained by John Servis who has no stakes wins in past 12 months and is 12% on sprint to routes.  Ostrolenka is a Musket Man son, a Turk favorite, and had a forgettable G2 Remsen last time out after having a good fall at Belmont.

Mini Cosmo, Royal Burgh and General Bellamy make up the rest of the contenders while I tossed Now We Are Free and Tencendur at my own peril.   I'm torn on what order, but I'm mostly favoring Mini Cosmo and General Bellamy and essentially have tossed Royal Burgh in Tri's.

So what to do with this?

My real interest here isn't ROI, it's Derby Trail reconnaissance.  That said, I think I see an opportunity to assemble a cheap investment that gives me a chance to check my handicapper and bettor boxes.

a $0.1 Super:  7-9 OVER 4-7-8-9 OVER 1-2-4-6-7-8-9 OVER 1-2-4-6-7-8= $11.20.  That's a bit too pricy for me for at ten center so.....

7-9 OVER 4-7-8-8 OVER 1-4-7-8 OVER 1-2-4-6-7-8 =$6.00

and a Trifecta:  $0.50  4-7-8-9 OVER 4-7-8-9 OVER 1-4-7-8-9= $18

a bit pricey so....

Trifecta $1.00 7-9 OVER 4-7-8-9 OVER 1-4-6-7-8=$22 or $11 for a $0.50 lottery ticket.

Have fun with it friends.

Turk Out!