The Nomination Is In: The Preakness Super High Five

"My Trip to Old Hilltop was A-OK"

The Turk Clan, and friends, had a good Black Eyed Susan Day at Pimlico.  Sister Turk got up close and personal in the Infield with a boy named Goo, while we kicked back at the 1/16 pole in the first row of the grandstand.

The day got off to a bit of rocky start, as downtown traffic got snarled up due to the President visiting (his handicapping must be done already).  We were able to finally trek the 7 miles to Pimlico and we found Lot 2, Haywood, only to find a LOT FULL sign.  No matter, a nice older fella, a Navy Vet, pulled the sign back and we settled into our seats.

My experience included a "Black Eyed Susan", a hideous concoction of Vodka and some other bitter tasting stuff and I was left with a mild buzz and a Preakness glass, the real prize.

I didn't do much handicapping for Friday's card, I wanted to just relax and make some small tote board value bets.  I will say that at least twice in the grandstand I almost saw violence erupt as the teller lines were moving at a snails pace and punters were starting to get really agitated with each other.  The whole feel of the racetrack and the staff was very old school, not particularly fan friendly, and in no way very inviting to new fans.  That said, the Nathan Hot Dog fellas were top shelf.

I'm alive in the Pimlico Special/Preakness Double.  Even that was an adventure, as the teller couldn't have been less interested in that bet and had to run it through twice because he wasn't listening very well to me.  I was happy to finally see Richard's Kid again in person, but really, why is the poor fella still running? He's not a claimer, 45 starts, 11 wins, and two plus million in earnings, enough already.

Do you really think I have any plans of trying to get a Super High Five Bet right with that crew?  I'll be placing that on my portable device and not sweating it.  I think we're looking at a several thousand dollar Super High Five (not 10's or 100's of thousands) and I've created a $168 bet that has a better chance than the PowerBall (which I have a $10 spot on with co-workers).  I think I'm going to just enjoy my day at the track and hope my one big bet hits.




Have Fun Friends, Turk Out!

Little Turk and I, Grandstand, Pimlico 

The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Classic Super High 5

I'd like to start by saying that it is an honor and privilege to be able to write the handicap for the Breeders' Cup Classic for The Thorofan Handicappers Corner. The Thorofan is an organization of horse racing enthusiasts representing horse racing enthusiasts. I'm proud to be a member and a contributor.

What I'm about to propose is risky, but the upside can get seriously large. I've handicapped and constructed a SUPER HIGH FIVE bet for the Classic. The Super High Five is not a regular option on the betting menu, but for Ye' Ol Turk, it represents my white whale, a glittering jewel that I like to claim not only for the money, but for the prestige as well.

The Base Handicap is as the name implies, my primary view of the field. With both color (Green-Yellow-Red) and with Letter Grades (A-D) my base handicap reorders the field into an expected order of finish. It's no different than what the morning line odds are doing except instead of generating my own odds line (which I tediously did for many years) I rank the horses with a grade below B- outside of the Exotic Pool generally. One of the more consistent comments I've gotten over the years is "Hey Turk, you're a chalk eater." I'm good with that, because I'm an exotic bettor mostly. I often don't really care who wins, as long as I have the winner covered in my matrix, the who's who of horses in the bet and out.

Now you can take the handicap and apply any sort of exotic bet over the top of it. The beauty of taking the time to build a base handicap is if a horse scratches, I'm only sliding horses up or down. Unless the field is devoid of pace, my base handicap allows me to calmly study the tote board before the betting windows close and make value decisions on who I put in the different slots to maximize profit. I'm really not a chalk eater, but I understand the criticism.

Criticism? Who cares. You're a handicapper, you aren't trying to convince everyone who's going to win, you have to convince yourself that your hard earned betting capital is worth putting at stake on a particular contest. You can think anything you want of me when this handicap is done. A handicapper has to have thick skin. It's sort of like a cornerback who just got burned by a beautiful deep ball from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Stevie Johnson (ok bad example): you have to forget it before the next play. I've lost track of how many times one of my toss horses won a race. I don't focus on that, just the big picture overall, am I ahead or behind. Strive for consistency, in your handicapping, your bet construction and your capital investments.

Before I stop preaching, learn to walk away from a race. If this race was on Santa Anita's old fake dirt, with multiple European horses entered, I'd walk away in a second. I like to control the number of variables to as few as possible: I think the weather will be good, I think the track will be fast, I know every horse in the field well, I like my odds of separating the wheat from the chaff. What can't I control? The darn horses, they sometimes got a mind of their own, and nothing kills me more than seeing a neck or a nose separate a horse from the exotics from the also ran's.
Let's get after this before I bore you to tears!




Chalk eater or not, Game on Dude is 5 for 5 at Santa Anita. 5 of 7 in the money at the distance, Trainer Baffert, a 33% winner at SA, places Bejarano up, and the two have combined for 31% wins in 103 starts over past year at the Great Race Place.

Ron the Greek, and Bill Mott in general, have consistently left me a day late and a dollar short. Raise your hand, who saw Drosselmeyer coming last year? Two brilliant work bullets at BEL after a rare dud in his last outing. A Big Cap winner earlier this year gives him points with me but that field wasn't stellar. This Florida bred has consistently over performed and I'm counting him in here.

I love Richard's Kid. I'm shocked that he's 7 already. I hated what amounted to a lost year in Dubai but not my choice. I hated him getting yanked from Baffert, but again, not my choice. 3 of 4 in the money at SA, 5 of 11 in the money at the distance, 10 of 13 in the money over fast dirt, a strong late closer and I like how Trainer O'Neil has him going at 6f. I may be irrationally inflating his chances, but I like him in the top 5.

Nonios has been smokin' in the morning: :46 2/5ths at SA this week. No dirt wins, no wins at the distance and no SA wins for the 3 YO, and Pedroza and Hollendorfer are 4% winners together at SA. Ugh. I like his last race, I think he's on the upswing and I'm looking for value.

Flat Out was my pick last year. His last two wins were at Belmont. He's won at the distance twice, is a two million dollar earner, and he deserves exotic respect: 6 place or shows in last 13 and 9 of last 13 in the money.

Pool Play, the Hawthorne Gold Cup winner, 7 year old millionaire hard knocker. Strong late kick and I think he hits the ticket when it's said and done.

I tossed Brilliant Speed and Handsome Mike completely. If I get burned it will be by the group of Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve. This is an expensive bet and you have to make choices on who you cover, hard choices.

My bet is laid out with three options and displayed at $1 and $2 dollar investments. Who and how much you bet is your business, but invest responsibly. This is a hard bet to hit, so scale the base handicap back to Superfecta or Trifecta to increase your chances of not making a big pile of money get suddenly smaller. For those about to rock, we salute you.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Homework: The Classic



2008 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita minus the fake dirt

The Turk likes to start his homework with a video review of key races.  With today's release of Breeders' Cup PP's, its time to get down to work!

I'll be blunt;  I want to win a huge stack of money on Breeders' Cup weekend.  I think the field sizes and the lack of overwhelming class leaves the opportunity wide open. 

I like to start with the Classic and work backward.  Anyone who knows me knows I don't bother with two year olds.  I'm going to stick with what I know.  I may be an East Coast guy but I played Santa Anita heavy all year for a reason: I wanted to have a feel for the dirt here and I wanted to feel like a Great Race Place insider.  Check that box, I've played and played well the fast dirt and I'm feelin' it.  I've taken some time off the past weeks to recharge my batteries.  All in time now folks.

Let's get after it.

1 1/8 Mile Pennsylvania Derby Grade 2;  Dirt fast track;  Handsome Mike (86); Macho Macho, Golden Ticket

:49 1/5; 1:14; 1:38 4/5; 1:51 3/5

 1 1/4 Mile Travers Stakes Grade 1; Dirt fast track; Golden Ticket/Alpha (100) DH; Fast Falcon

:48; 1:12 3/5; 1:37 1/5; 2:02 3/5

1 1/4 Mile Jockey Gold Cup Grade 1;  Dirt good track; Flat Out (109); Stay Thirsty; Fort Larned

:47 1/5; 1:11 4/5; 1:36 2/5; 2:01 2/5

1 1/8 Mile Awesome Again Grade 1 @ SA; Dirt fast track;  Game on Dude (109); Nonios; Richard's Kid

:48; 1:11 4/5; 1:36 1/5; 1:48 4/5;

1 1/4 Mile Pacific Classic Grade 1; fake Del Mar dirt; Dullahan (110); Game on Dude; Richard's Kid

:46 4/5; 1:11; 1:35 1/5; 1:59 2/5

1 1/4 Mile Hawthorne Gold Cup Grade 2; Dirt fast track; Pool Play (101); Cease; Eldaafer

:49 2/5; 1:13 4/5; 1:40 1/5: 2:06 1/5

1 1/8 Mile Beldame Grade 1; Dirt good track; Royal Delta (106)

:46 3/5; 1:10; 1:35; 1:48 4/5

1 1/8 Mile Woodward Stakes Grade 1; Dirt fast track; To Honor and Serve (105); Mucho Macho Man

:47 2/5; 1:10 4/5; 1:35 3/5; 1:48 2/5

1 1/8 Mile Whitney Grade 1; Dirt fast track; Fort Larned (108); Ron the Greek; Flat Out

:46 4/5; 1:10 4/5; 1:34 4/5; 1:47 3/5

The Nomination Is In: The Hollywood Gold Cup Grade 1

The Turk feels heavily invested into Hollywood Park this meet; I've traveled there twice now from Buffalo, and when I wasn't betting and winning, I was wandering the facility and thinking about what it must have been like in another time, another era, when names like Noor, Swaps, Roundtable and Native Diver were revered as the champions they were.

To me, my favorite races are the ones that crown the champion of the current meet at a particular track, and I'm quite fond of the handicap division, so it's the Hollywood Gold Cup, The Goodwood, The Clark, The Woodward, its those races that stir this horse racing fan's soul.

A nice field and better weather than the sauna that is the East Coast has my eyes turned to the Hollywood card today. Let's get after it!



The huge post time favorite will be Game on Dude: 4 straight 100 Plus Beyers including a freakish 115 in The Californian at Hollywood in early June.



I'm going to back Richard's Kid just slightly in a hunt for value: Baffert with Bejarano up win 32% of the time. A nice workout/race win at 1 3/8 at HOL in early June after coming back from Dubai after a one year, five race, failed experiment.



I think the next three are pretty even; the filly Love Theway Youare comes in off a Grade 1 Vanity win.



Kettle Corn is an obvious choice; the winner here in December in the G3 Native Diver, a game Show after a bad start in the Mervin Leroy in May, and an exhaust fumes Place in the Californian.



I like Spud Spivens to make some exotic noise with nothing other than my gut, some nice work and an exit off a solid Allowance race close in May. I think he'll have plenty of pace targets to shoot for and wouldn't be surprised to see him fourth.

Thirtyfirststreet is still more than capable but I cant cover everybody. Anthony's Cross seems over matched here.

Nice field, should be perfect conditions as well. Have fun with this card friends.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: October 10, 2009; The Goodwood Grade I at Santa Anita

That VERY good looking fella looking calm and inquisitive is none other then the Kentucky Derby Champion Mine That Bird, making his return to the racetrack after an eventful few months. We wish him good luck today, as the Turk is a big fan of his, and he'll need it with the crowd he is going against.

Race 7 Santa Anita Post Time 6:30 ET; The Goodwood Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on fake dirt for 3 YOs and Up.



I had to go back and re watch the trip that Richard's Kid had in the Pacific Classic. It was a Mine That Bird-esque run that left most handicappers baffled in a similar fashion, not as shocking, as Mine That Bird's rise to Grade I prominence.

The day after the Pacific Classic I went back over the materials and tried to glean something from it. I came to the conclusion that Hall of Fame trainer Baffert is back on the very top of his game. Looking at the way Richard's Kid is training, I would say his current form is sharp and he is ready for a very stiff test today. A bullet at :46 4/5ths in 4f and a nice 1:12 2/5ths at 6f make me give him the tentative chalk mark on his hip. If he wins here, or acquits himself with a strong duel, it will establish the 4 YO Lemon Drop Kid son and one of the surprise older colts of 2009.

Mine That Bird is the kind of plucky little gelding that the Turk has a deep affinity for. Those cowboy connections of his are again in the bright lights after their summer plans went astray when Mine That Bird needed throat surgery and went on the shelf for a bit. We watched as Summer Bird became the "bird" everyone was talking about, but the Kentucky Derby win, the Preakness run at Rachel, the gutty but troubled trip of the Belmont can not be dismissed. Could win or could finish last? A test of faith but I believe in Mine That Bird and I'm hedging he finds the exotic ticket.

Tiago has been a Turk favorite since his three year old campaign. Tiago won the Goodwood as a 3 YO and lost by a length to Well Armed last year. This is a test of faith as well, as current form must be questioned. Hedging more down then up.

Colonel John is 7 of 10 in the money on fake dirt and has won three times on the fake stuff at Santa Anita.

A stretch is Monzante, the 5 YO gelding from Maria's Mon. Only the second race of 2009, his form of 2008 was very impressive and he is training well.

There are lots of possible exotic ticket crashers in this lineup so build your tickets wisely. I plan on using my base handicap and then inserting multiple horses boxed in the 3 and 4 spot. We'll see what we can do.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 6th, 2009: The Vice Regent at WO and the Pacific Classic GI at Del Mar

Race 9 Del Mar Post Time 8:10 ET: The Pacific Classic Grade I; 1 1/4 Miles on Fake Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



Live and Long, Richard's Kid is a prime study in educated longshot selections. Two bullets pre race and three solid works since his last race, trained by a high level trainer (Hall of Fame Bob Baffert)and a great jock with Mike Smith up. Just based on the Past Performances, you never pick this horse. It's an angle you have to look for, and even then, its no sure thing, but it happens and it's blindingly obvious in hindsight.

Einstein and Rail Trip ran solid races and seemed to be caught off guard by the strong stretch run of Richard's Kid. Colonel John had a bad trip and had to check up a few times heading into the last 1/4 mile and never got rolling. Informed, my chalk, laid back and never really fired.

It was an odd pace with speed in front and the speed throttled back. That's why they run em'.



Race 8 WO: The Vice Regent; 1 Mile on Ontario Turf for 3 YOs sired by Ontario Stallion



In my pre race analysis I had Guipago with <10% chance of winning. In reviewing the PP I see nothing that would make me think this horse was primed to win this race.

That said, I was very surprised to see this horse rise up the tote board ranking as post time approached. I placed just a few Trifecta bets based on my base handicap with a few variation on the Show horse, all bust of course.

Sometimes, a handicapper has to move on. The races were a mixed bag for me, but a handicapper learns from the wins and the losses.

Turk Out!