The Nomination Is In: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade 1 at Churchill Downs

It doesn't get much more American than Stephen Foster:  Born on July 4, 1826, the composer of such American music classics as Camptown Races, Oh Susana!, My Old Kentucky Home are still songs that generations of kids sang in music class and learned to play on instruments.  Another great American institution, The Thorofan, invested in the growth of the American horse racing fan base, has again asked this bald idiot handicapper to opine on the races.  It's not a Pink, Blue, or Yellow sheet but its probably just as accurate.  Ignore as you will!

My success rate, measured as Return on Investment, is not very good with my Handicapper Corner's handicaps.  It doesn't help that I'm typically making Superfecta and Super High Five bet recommendations, but still, the handicapping has been dull and not very good.  In self analysis mode I think for some handicaps I was too conservative, afraid to look dumb.  In others I was wildly aggressive, on the edge of reckless.  I've learned that to be a  successful bettor I need to  approach my handicapping with consistency: I build my base handicap, regardless of value, and if I choose to take some risk on the bet structure for value at least I am doing it with eyes wide open.  

The first thing I noticed when I reviewed the Past Performances is how many of the runners you could make a legitimate win bet on: Revolutionary, Moonshine Mullin, Will Take Charge, Departing, Golden Ticket and Prayer for Relief could all hit the wire first.  With the way Long River, a 15-1 Morning Line sleeper, is training, that's seven of nine that could be in the winners circle. 

The weather should be good. The track should be listed as Fast.

Let's get after this!



I have Departing in the top spot.  It's the four year old geldings  2nd off a 180 day layoff, he's 3 of 5 at the distance, 1 of 1 at CD and 7 wins in 10 starts on fast dirt.  Trainer Stall and Albarado, up, clip along at 31% win  rate.  He's been training very sharply at CD.  I doubt I single him but I like his chances to provide value from my chalk spot.  Look for him to come off the pace.

I have late running Revolutionary in the next group back;  He came late for Show in last year's Kentucky Derby and he comes in off a Pimlico Special Grade 3 win.

Prayer for Relief has no top three finishes in three starts at CD.  Another off the pace style runner, the 6 YO sizzled in morning work across this track a week ago.  4 wins in 13 starts at the distance, 6 wins in 20 starts over fast dirt, he ran terribly in  2013 Clarke Handicap here.

The Alysheba, Grade 2, run at CD in May was an interesting race.




Moonshine Mullin should provide much of today's pace.   Will Take Charge will try and forget his non fire in the Alysheba.  Stevens is up again for Trainer Lukas and most likely is the one to beat and the expected post time chalk.  I'm a biog fan of Will Take Charge but I need to see him fire in his four year old season and I'll bet against the money on him.

Golden Ticket and Long River are collectively no wins in six starts at this distance.  Long River has been working very sharply at Saratoga and ran very well on the inner dirt at Aqueduct this past winter.

So what to do with this?  I think I'll take a position similar to my base handicap, with a horse like Departing on top and a series of Exacta Bets with value underneath like Golden Ticket and Long River.  To be decisive I'll go with 6 OVER 3-7-8. Three $10 Bets may interest me.

Whatever you do, have some fun and develop your own handicap and bet responsively.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs

Thank you to the Thorofan for allowing me the ooportunity to handicap for my fellow race fans. 

The Stephen Foster Handicap is the traditional kickoff to the second half of the horse racing season.  From this day a week after the Belmont, especially in the handicap division, all eyes are pointing forward to the Breeders' Cup Classic and races like this are great springboards for that.  What's not traditional is that it's under the lights, and while it is not traditional, very cool and I'm excited to have prime time racing to watch tomorrow night.  My only disappointment is with the field size of six.  While you could make a strong case for five of the six horses to win, at the end of the day it's a six horse field and I'm an exotic handicapper.  So what to do?

Well, the field size doesn't  preclude exotic options, but you have to be smart.  The Turk has been playing horses for a long time and the mistakes stick in my brain as much as the successes.  I hate to admit this, but many an exotic bet over the years I've won only to lose money.  Sad but true.  You can't over cover, and you can't invest more than you think the bet will pay.  If the bettor's top three choices come in 1-2-3, don't expect more than a two digit Tri and Super payout. 

But I'm ahead of myself:  The handicap always comes first.  I'd like to report to you that I see a horse in this field that will go to the gate greater than 8-1 and win but I'm not sure that I do.

Successful Dan comes in off a fake dirt win at Keeneland in the Grade 3 Ben Ali in April.




Successful Dan went :50 flat in the half, about :49 1/5 through the mile and rolled home for the last 1/8 of a mile at :11 2/5ths.  A criminal pace.  I don't think he'll be allowed to loop along like that today on dirt.  That said, you don't win 8 of 12 on a fluke pace or go 11 of 12 in the money by luck.  A very serious 3 wins in 4 starts at CF, with the one blemish the infamous DQ in the 2010 Grade 1 Clark Handicap. 

Ron the Greek, the now 6 YO Bill Mott trainee comes in off a game Show effort against Game on Dude in Charlestown Classic Grade 2.



Ron the Greek will be coming off the pace, most likely from several lengths back. 

Take Charge Indy, the 4 year old A.P. Indy colt comes in off a romping draw off win in the Alysheba Grade 2.





10 of 12 in the money, Take Charge Indy has won only once since the Florida Derby early in his 3 YO campaign. 

Golden Ticket is an up and down kinda runner.  J. Rosario is up for Trainer McPeek. Rosario is a 35% winner at CD with 14 wins in 40 starts.  4 works at Churchill since winning at 1 mile on May 2. 

Fort Larned, a 5 YO El Dubai son, had two miserable starts in 2013 tossing B. Hernandez off at GP in March and not firing in the Oaklawn Handicap Grade 2.  6 works at CD since the last effort, he'll either totally surprise me or he'll be out of the money, feast or famine.

Pool Play, the one horse I don't feel can win; You have to go back to the Hawthorne Gold Cup in October for his last win and comes in off two dull efforts.  The 8 YO Silver Deputy horse should be the longest odds on the board. 



I'll be honest:  I'm not sure if I like my bets or not.  I like my handicap.  I like Take Charge Indy on top and I think Fort Larned has a chance to not fire again, continuing the trend.  I plan on an Exacta as well as with Take Charge Indy over Ron the Greek and Successful Dan for $4 and I'll most likely play the Super only. 

Determine your own level of risk/reward and try not to emulate the Turk who has at times learned to take big piles of money and "win" smaller piles of money by overplaying horses in my exotics.

Have fun friends, Thank you Thorofan, Turk Out!