The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, where we specialize in turf handicapping and exacta bet construction. I was telling a co-Worker friend of mine this past week that I started using "The Turk" moniker because I was afraid that my employers would think I did not take my fiduciary responsibilities seriously if I was a gambler (and in my case gambler is lower case g.) How the times have changed in modern society, where just in my lifetime you couldn't get a corporate job with long hair, long beard and tattoos, or in my case, by being a degenerate gambler type. We use to judge many books by their cover and we had the social constructs of the era guide our biases. I don't know if it's better, or worse, but life is different in America, in everyday life, and horse racing is no different. It's days like Travers Day that remind me of horse racing in the mid 80's when I started to attend tracks. Perhaps fewer cosplay gamblers back then, but lively crowds nonetheless. I'm not the old guy railing about change, just observing.
If your a parent like I am, the end of August is nearing the unofficial end of summer, with the kids going back to school soon. While Little Turk is no longer the elementary school boy he was when we attended the 2007 Travers and he blindly picked Grasshopper who nearly upset the Kentucky Derby champ, Street Sense, I still think of Labor Day weekend next week as the unofficial ending of summer and I start to turn my attention towards Breeders' Cup. The circle of life in a horse players year.
I have to think I'm not the only one that walks into Saratoga and thinks about the ones no longer with us. I think about my Dad every time I'm there. My last visit with my father was Alabama Weekend in 2013, ten years ago. What I wouldn't give to have a time capsule, but being there is the closest thing to having one.
The Bowling Green G2: 1 3/8 Miles on Good Turf, SAR; 30 July 2023
Today's seven horse field lacks much front end speed, so Channel Maker's game plan will most likely mirror the Bowling Green. I don't see it happening with the extra distance and pressure from possibly Prat, up on Stone Age (Ire).
Where will pressure on Channel Maker come from?
Watch Pioneering Spirit open up in the stretch last time out OC62K 27 July at SAR. The horse has come a long way since a March gelding and a claim out of Pletcher's barn and into Rice's. 6 of 7 ITM in 2023. 4 Wins in 6 turf starts.
Bolshoi Ballet (Ire) has the class, the connections, but current form after running at Ascot 29 July I question. Feels more like step one of a Breeders' Cup prep plan from Conditioner O'Brien. 25 months since last win.
The beforementioned Stone Age (Ire) come back for Trainer Brown after running in Dubai in February. Prat and Brown have racked up 98 wins over rolling one year at SAR, 21%. Brown is 25% in 44 tries as 1st time Trainer and 30% in 191 starts on a +180 Day layoff. His gaudy 24%/889 Turf Start and 27% in 1158 Routes and 22% in Graded Stakes in 342 starts are hard to put in context with other trainers. I feel like the four year old is also starting a prep cycle for Breeders' Cup but I'd be inclined to back over Bolshoi Ballet.
Absolutely staggering morning line of 6-5 on Stone Age (Ire). He's the class of the race, but it is first time with Brown and it is first time in a long time. I've got no choice at that price to go after him and see what comes out of it.
I'm going to build an exacta, $1 Bet boxing the 5-3-1-7 Pioneering Spirit, Bolshoi Ballet and Soldier Rising and Stone Age for $12.
And inThe Travers:
The Jim DandyG2; 1 1/8milesover sloppy dirt at SAR 29 July.
The Belmont Stakes G1; 1 1/2 miles fast dirt 10 June 2023
The Haskell G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt at Monmouth; 22 July 2023
The Preakness Stakes G1; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 20 May 2023
Matt Winn G3; 1 1/8 Miles Sloppy Dirt; EIP. 11 June 2023
The Curlin Stakes $130K; 1 1/8 Miles SAR 21 July 2023.
Similar to The Sword Dancer, Forte gets installed as a huge Morning Line favorite, and I'm going to go after him too even though his chalk is much darker than Stone Age's.
I've posted alot of video but to me this is less analysis and more tote board odd gambling. I'm going assume the track is not fast as the rains are expected to get heavier this afternoon. There are some big wet Tomlinson's in the field with exception of Mage and Scotland. I'm tossing both from my exacta pool. My value choice is Disarm. Adds Blinkers, training well, slop win and the best price.
$1 Exacta: 6-2-5-1 for $12. Alternatively, 6 Wheeled OVER 2-5-4-1 for $4.
Have fun friends, Turk Out.
I wish I could go back in time....Papa Turk, the Turk, Little Turk, one day together again.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 9th year and 11th month of providing handicapping and bet construction to people who never asked for it. It is, however free, and it as I might add, positive ROI over a long period of time.
Why does the Turk blog? I guess the easiest answer is he likes too. Some people like crosswords, some watch Jeopardy, some online porn. Me, I like my work very much and blogging is an extension of my work. I analyze data and I develop good money strategy, which is exactly what I do for a living.
I was out (albeit briefly) at Del Mar last week, and next Saturday I'll be in Saratoga for Travers Day. I haven't attend a Travers since 2007, when the Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense avoided the Spa Curse, and also the day Hard Spun became a Grade 1 winner in the King's Bishop. I stopped going because I felt priced out. I'm not super cost conscious, but Stub-Hubbed tickets in the clubhouse have gotten very pricey for the Travers and instead I started coming for either Alabama or Woodward Stakes day. I purchased tickets in the hope of possibly seeing Justify, but I'm good with whomever shows up and quite frankly, I'm getting excited to see Wonder Gadot take on the colts. I've enjoyed alot of Alabama Days and the hat pictured above was a bit of swag the Spa gave away in 2008. I admit tho, I'm getting rain fatigue this meet and I'm dreading working hard on a multi race handicap only to see races pulled from turf or multiple scratches. I'm going to hunker down and assume that the track is at least sloppy and sealed and the turf is soft. The weather, is going to be wet. You'll find the real Track Conditions and Scratches and Changes for NYRA/Saratoga here.
My handicapping plan was to develop a Pick Three Strategy for Race 8-9-10, the G2 Lake Placid on Turf, The Alabama and a $25,000 1 Mile Turf Claimer that I fear will either be cancelled or shifted to the main track after I spend quality time on it. Let's get after it!
Video Review for the G2 Lake Placid: 1 1/8 Miles on Mellon Turf.
G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational: 1 1/4 Miles Firm BEL turf
G3 Lake George: 1 1/16 on SAR outer (Mellon) Turf
G3 Wonder Again Stakes: 1 1/8 Miles Bel inner Turf
G2 Appalachian: 1 Mile over yielding turf at KEE
Penn Oaks $200K; 1 Mile on Firm Turf
And the video review for The Alabama 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt
G1 CCA Oaks 1 1/8 Miles on fast Dirt
Indiana Oaks G3: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt
Delaware Oaks G3: 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt
The Mother Goose G2: 1 1/16 Miles on fast BEL dirt.
What to make of this?
Instead of rambling about this one, I think I'm just going to let my base handicaps and fair lines speak for themselves. These races were handicapped assuming soft turf and sloppy and sealed dirt.
Midnight Bisou will most likely be singled on my Pick 3. I'll be assembling value exactas on both races as I think there are some very good possibilities for both races. Hopefully the field sizes don't change.
I'll be back tomorrow with Race 10 once I get a feel for if the race will be run, by who and on what surface.
