The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Classic Grade 1

 

Welcome friends to The Thorofan Handicappers Corner and this handicap of the Breeder's Cup Classic presented by The Turk, with the aid of his trusted sidekick, The Little Turk. I'd like to start by thanking The Thorofan for the opportunity to share my thoughts with their readers, and I'd like to encourage horseplayers to consider joining the growing ranks of a premier fan based organization like The Thorofan.

 

Handicapping and Gambling are different sides of a coin to me.  I almost always start with a base handicap.  My base handicap is just a reordering of the horses within a range of expected finishes, what I layers.  I try not to get too emotional about the horses, but its hard as a fan and a handicapper.  That said, when I'm investing money, I try to leave emotions at the door and remain completely objective.  One way I do that is to not get caught up too much in the pre race hype that accompanies these major horse racing events.  I tend to avoid reading the slew of excellent turf writers who cover these events, especially the human interest pieces.  Perhaps that takes away some of the fan experience, but it also helps me eliminate outside biases.  My point is that my almost 30 years of handicapping has taught me that a consistent approach to handicapping is important to improving your ROI into the black. 

 

I think I digressed and I tend to do that!  I start with a base handicap and I develop an opinion as to how many legitimate horses are in a field and what the pace situation is expected to be.  With that thought I can layer speed, stalking and closers into what I believe is the right layer of finish.  I seldom enter a handicap with a particular choice on the betting menu already chosen, but for major racing events, I am held is sway by the Super High Five, that shining cup at top of the mountain that few sip from.  OK, dramatic yes, but as a handicapper and bettor, its my ultimate challenge, as elusive as a Pick 6, and a crazy adrenaline rush when you hit it, which I  have on several occasions.

If you are looking for a safe win bet, leave now, as this is not the blog for you.  That said, when I prepared my handicap I saw a layering that lends itself to The Super High Five, and that is a layering of the talent level of the horses within the field, which I think is pretty defined, especially with the scratch of Ron the Greek, an especially hard horse to layer.  You can keep up with any other scratches or changes here.

Let's stop chatting and get after this.




When you enter a handicap with a particular bet in mind, which again is not my typical approach, I take one of two tacts:  I see value and I have a wide open win spot OR I have an overwhelming favorite and I am going to back the favorite, either singling or having no more than two horses layered to win.  With Game on Dude here, I am taking the later approach, placing him as a single on my ticket, and moving on.  A couple of thoughts:  A boxed 7 horse $1 bet on the Super High Five would cost you $2,520, a six horse box is $720 and a 5 horse box is $120.  These are expensive bets.  They pay out in the thousands, and I've hit a few that have paid out $4,000 and I've come within a head bob of $75,000.  You can't cover everybody in an exotic bet.  You will have to make choices based on your read of the past performances, how the track is playing, and ultimately have some luck.  Game On Dude is 5 for 5 in 2013, 7 wins in 8 starts at Santa Anita, 8 of 11 in the money at the distance, 10 of 16 on fast dirt, training fast and Hall of Fame jock Mike Smith up for Baffert.  I'd place his odds of winning at 2 in 3 tries and that's good enough for me to make this single selection.  Would there be more value placing him Second and having an upset winner, perhaps Will Take Charge, nipping him at the wire: Absolutely and I encourage my readers to have the stomach to make those type of bold bets, as the payout will be phenomenal. 

Which leads me to my next digression: Make your own opinions.  I've been handicapping for many years, and blogging my handicaps for some time too, and I've never once said that I had an iron pipe lock of a handicap and that you would be foolish to ignore my opinions.  Wrong! I have stunk this Handicappers Corner up to high heaven over the years, but I've also had my share of success.  Just have fun and bet responsibly.  I think I digressed again.

I have a three horse layer for Place:  Will Take Charge is a horse I loved early on the Derby trail and was happy for Lukas at the Travers and the PA Derby that this horse he patiently conditioned had arrived.  Boon or Bust, I have him 2nd through 5th.  Mucho Macho Man I think is the best of this group: He's run awfully well at Santa Anita but there is absolutely nothing to make you think he wants 10 panels.  The only difference between my $96 and $84 dollar bet ideas is being a bit more behind Mucho Macho Man and only covering Place and Show.  Finally, the champ, Fort Larned, cannot just be casually ignored (like I did last year).  I'm not sure he's been challenged all year and I don't have any sort of feel for him.  I think he could finish anywhere from Place to 8th. 

My last layer is Palice Malice, Flat Out and Paynter.  Any of them are good enough to go Place-Show and you could make a strong case to flip flop Palice Malice and Mucho Macho Man and Paynter or Flat Out with Fort Larned.  Again, you have to make choices. 

Choices.  Such a dirty word sometimes.  Toss outs are a choice and historically someone from this group will gallantly charge into 4th or 5th place, 12 lengths behind the winner and screw up the bet.  I like Last Gunfighter quite a bit:  4 wins in six starts in 2013, 6 wins in 12 fast dirt moments, and nice connections with Trainer Chad Brown and Castellano up.  Moreno will have early speed.  I'm expecting a deep fade in the last 1/8 mile, and I need that fade to be at least to sixth place.  Declaration of War is clearly very classy but I'm not biting and I am completely discounting Planteur (Ire), always a kiss of death.

I know I have at least one or two more iterations of my bet structure to make before tomorrow.  Play with your own, watch today's dirt races and see where the winners at a 1/8 pole, at the 1/4.  I expect most of the winners on dirt at Santa Anita to be the early speed, with the wild card being an extra length of track to cover. 

Have fun friends, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Woodward Day Late Pick 3

Paynter last year (insert sad emoticon)

 Welcome friends the the Labor Day Weekend edition of The Turk and the Little Turk.  Traditionally I like to be at the Spa on Woodward Day but it just didn't work out this year.  My family and I did get to spend a very lovely and low key day at the track on Thursday where Little Turk took home the Turk Clan handicapping challenge, parlaying consistent win and show bets into positive ROI.  It makes this big, bald idiot handicapper proud to know I have raised the next generation of horse players, that I've done my part to keep horse racing alive and well. 

Little Turk is growing up in an era where racing is just out of sight of most kids who aren't growing up in a racing town or the bluegrass. 

When I was his age, pre internet, I looked forward to my Sports Illustrated Magazine subscription every week, and during the Triple Crown season and during the summer there was a horse racing article every week. 



 

Paynter Now!

The children of this generation are barely exposed to the beauty of the race track.  Race tracks to me are like safe harbors, calm water where you get out of the daily rat race, forget the cell phone, forget the worries, and just relax.  I've exposed Little Turk enough to the sport where he's developed a love for it, and while it rates below Soccer, Football and Hockey, at least its above bowling and curling in the landscape of entertainment options for him.

Ahh Paynter.  I worried so about this proud and beautiful Haskell winner, son of Awesome Again  with Tizamazing as a Dam, as he recovered from serious medical problems, and I watched in awe at how he decimated an Allowance Field at Hollywood Park early this year in his comeback.  I love stories like this and its what makes me stay a horseplayer, the horsefan in me.  Thanks by the way for Casey Phillips for the use of that lovely photo of Paynter.  The one of Paynter being cared for I believe was Justin Zayat, but whoever took it, thanks as well.

I am a horseplayer first and foremost when it comes to my money.  I have no problem whatsoever with how anybody bets, and we all know people who bet sentimental favorites.  The Turk doesn't pretend to be anything other than I handicapper who brings a consistent approach to his handicaps and bets, winning more than losing, but I am not the type of handicapper, the type I avoid and don't particularly enjoy spending time around, who believe they alone understand the Rosetta stone of racing. If you want to bet Paynter because you are inspired by him, go right ahead!  The horse racing fan is thrilled to see him at the Spa today, I give Baffert credit for shipping him here when there were races at Del Mar that he could have done well with too. He will draw betting action no doubt, which will leave me my Pick Three single, Successful Dan, at a better price.  horseplayer and horsefan can coexist-  I'm assembling a pretty low risk Pick 3 and if Paynter wins, I'll be happy too. 

Let's get after this!



I like the field in the Bernard Baruch quite a bit: Turallure, down lately, Tetradrachm, Za Approval and Silver Max are all fine quality, and So Long George, a shipper from Woodbine, must be respected too. 

I like those five in some combination for a Superfecta;  The base handicap has Silver Max on top and I like the :58 3/5ths bullet he dropped at SAR on the 18th of August and I think he'll be OK even if the turf isn't firm.

It's a good time to bring that up.  Track Conditions are hard to say for later.  Keep your eye on those and the scratches and changes.

Going in his second off a layoff is Tetradrachm, a horse quite frankly I had never heard of before (and i can't say that too often in the Stakes Races).  The 4 YO gelding won at 1 1/16 on firm SAR turf this meet and Bill Mott and Johnny V are clipping away at 27% together.

I'm a Clement fan and Za Approval is a classic late turn of foot turf runner.  6 wins in 12 turf tries, 9 of 12 in the money on turf, 2 wins in 3 starts at the distance and a SAR victory in his resume. 

Turallure has gone a VERY long time between wins but lost by a head over turf listed as good at SAR this meet and can't discount him for Show or Exotic.   I may have So Long George too low but I typically don't back Woodbine shippers into SAR to win so I won't cover in the P3 to my peril.  His Nijinsky Grade 2 win was really well done and can't be discounted from hitting the board as high as Place. 

The Grade 1 Forego at first blush seems a Zayat Stable slam dunk, and are they plotting a Forego-Woodward sweep?  D. Wayne Lukas revival continues to go well as Fast Bullet comes to his barn, along with all the promise that 4 wins in 5 starts brings for a lightly raced 5 YO.  His game for this 7 furlong affair seems pretty simple: go fast and hold on.  He's won on an off track and he may get loose on the lead and fly across sealed dirt.  Fast Bullet is Coupled with Justin Phillip, no slouch either and the winner of 4 starts on off tracks. 

I like either Lea or Sage Valley to throw the upset.  Lea is going on dirt for only the second time but does have a win on slop. Al Stall picks his marks well and B. Hernandez is up and the two win 26% of the time together. There is no Wise Dan in this race to thwart the 4 YO First Samuri runner.  Sage Valley has been training very well for Rudy Rodriguez and this winner of the James Marvin looks very capable.  I like this as a betting race very much and we'll be playing supers with the base handicap.  Is Jackson Bend really six?  I'm feeling old!  Not a bad $3,000 Hear No Evil son. 

In the main event the scratch of Fort Larned takes some of the sizzle out of the betting but we'll manage with what's left.   Put your hand up in the air if you've bet Flat Out away from BEL and got your teeth kicked in?  2 wins on off tracks and two sizzling works for Bill Mott's runner and recent Suburban G2 winner but zero of three wins at SAR.  Ron the Greek, another Mott I've consistently screwed up since the Lecompte (is Ron the Greek really six years old?  Now I do feel old!) doesn't seem to be at his best right now.  I'll most likely flip flop him and Paynter depending on the track conditions, as I know Ron the Greek doesn't mind slop but I don't know about mighty Paynter.

Successful Dan does seem to be in good form but he'd be going on the off track for the first time in his career.  Paynter would be for the second time since the slop of the Derby Trials at CD last year.

I've only got one betting option right now, an $18 dollar 3 by 3 by 1, with my single being Sucessful Dan.  I doubt this wins quite frankly and sometimes the process of typing out my handicap sways me.  I'm more likely to single Silver Max, go three deep with the coupled entry in the Forego, and maybe 4 deep in the Woodward, pushing the bet out to $24. 

I'll be watching the weather and track conditions before I have to make my P3 bet at around 4:30 ET.  have fun with it friends, we shift towards Belmont and Santa Anita next as we start to gear up for my favorite betting weekend of the year, Breeders' Cup. 

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The 144th Belmont Stakes Superfecta

I scrapped the blog entry that I wrote, just hit the delete button, right after the news that I'll Have Another was scratched. I considered not blogging or betting at all. Just numb. If you're reading a horse racing blog, I'm betting you know exactly what I mean.

Secretariat doesn't belong to me. In 1973 I was seven, and while my parents saw Secretariat race, those feelings aren't first person to me. Affirmed, different story. While hard for young people now to believe, horse racing was on television, was covered in Sports Illustrated, was in the daily newspapers. I remember like yesterday sitting at a family first communion party for my little cousin watching Affirmed win the Kentucky Derby. I remember vividly coming home from school to check the mail for my SI magazine. I experienced that Triple Crown as a horse racing fan, not a bettor, and the thrill of it is still deep set within me. I was convinced Big Brown was going to win. Take Desormeaux off and I would have declared it a lock. I liked I'll Have Another coming out of Santa Anita Derby, but I wasn't sold until the Preakness stretch run. My deleted blog entry singled I'll Have Another in the Superfecta, I thought he would win the Triple Crown. I had his summer mapped out in my mind. I saw him winning the Goodwood G1 before winning The Breeders' Cup Classic. Hope dashed, yet hope still springs eternal. Another Triple Crown season will come next year and another chance to fall wildly in love with a horse, a jockey and even a trainer and connections that while flawed, are really just a mirror of society in general.

I think this is a decent betting race still and I've built a 10 Cent and $1 Dollar Superfecta that has some value. Let's get after it!



A Baffert/Lucas Exacta- Is this 1999 or 2012? I like Paynter on top, but more gut feel than anything. Less polished that Dullahan or Union Rags, he's sharp and rested. Quite a class jump, but 4 of the last 5 Belmont Winners were starting their first Triple Crown race. Not singled, but solid value and a legit shot.

Optimizer is me being a bit, optimistic. Trainer Lucas finally broke his year long Graded Stakes slump. This English Channel son should still be running with a 1/4 mile to go. What a story this would make: Lukas, freshly stitched up, in a late career swoon. Storybook.

Dullahan has winner's credentials and I mean him no disrespect, I'm just thinking a bit different today. Roman's training regime, especially the the 4f :45 4/5ths run blow and the 1 mile work is mastercraftsman like. Winless in four tries on dirt.

Union Rags is a nice horse but not a great horse yet. I think he could be a very good handicap division horse and if he comes out of today healthy he still has a late summer and fall to make some noise with. I can't see a win, but just too good to ignore. I like the jock switch as Leparoux didn't seem to get the best of him this year.

Street Life goes for Chad Brown and has lots of talent. Five Sixteen is a gelded son of Invasor. Gut call.

After such a let down, today will just be about what could have been and a bit of fun with who's still left.

Have fun friends, Turk out!