The Nomination Is In: May 15, 2010; The Grade II Dixie and Grade I Preakness Stakes; Race 11/12 Daily Double

I love to remember Champions in their radiant glory and none to me are more glorious then Barbaro walking into Pimlico a day before his tragic final race. I try not to think about the big fella and what could have been but I found myself today with that horrible feeling from 2006 when I handicapped the Grade II Dixie as part of the Daily Double with The Preakness Stakes and came to the running lines for Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother. I've not handicapped any of Barbaro's brothers yet and I had to stop after reading his PP and just reflect back on how great the son of Dynaformer was. Let's not forget any of our runners, be it Barbaro or the cheapest claimer, and if you find The Turk enjoyable to read, please donate to a horse charity, one like Remember Me Rescue, with their easy to use widget on the right side of my blog. Thanks to Terence Dulay for the use of mighty Barbaro's picture. Let's get after it!

Pimlico Race 11 and Race 12: The Grade II Dixie and the Grade I Preakness Stakes



The Grade II Dixie goes to post at 5:12 Eastern, a full hour before the Preakness, so get your bets in.

The weather appears to be fine, the turf appears firm and there was only one scratch at the time of this writing, but get your information ready before finalizing your handicap.

Trainer Sheppard brings Just As Well in for his second off a long layoff, something the trainer does well with just 11% of the time. The 7YO does a Turf from Synthetic switch which Sheppard wins 22% of the time with. The trainer's graded stakes win rate of 27% and his 24% win rate with Leparoux, coupled with the Just As Well's 10 of 16 in the money on turf and 13 of 22 lifetime in the money makes him formidable. Don't like as a win bet with a suspected low price but will be part of my superfecta and trifectas.

5 YO gelding Picou comes in off the race of his career, a 103 BSF win at 1 1/8 on firm turf in early April. Trainer Brown puts E. Trujillo up, and the two combine for 44% wins on 16 starts and Brown clips away at 21% on turf and 33% in graded stakes. Expect a late turn of foot.

Rahystarda has been on my radar since beating Turk favorite Rahy's Attorney in the Grade III River City Handicap last year. 9 wins on 21 turf starts and 2 wins at the distance.

The group of Nicanor, Wesley and Grassy will round out my Show and 4th spots on the exotics.

In the main event, I like the middle of the starting gate to all show for themselves well. I'm tepidly backing Jackson Bend for his guts, Looking at Lucky for his pure natural potential and Super Saver for the respect the Derby winner deserves.

The second tier to me includes Dublin, Paddy O' Prado and Caracortado.

I like Jackson Bend on fast dirt where he is a perfect 9 for 9 in the money. A 4 furlong :46 3/5ths bullet earlier this week is a big fat wow. Hall of Fame Jock Mike Smith gets the mount for the second time.

2 YO champ Looking at Lucky has had some bad trips and gets Martin Garcia up today for Trainer Baffert. His best race of the year was on fast dirt and if Garcia can wait on him a bit he should be right there.

Super Saver ran an impressive 98 BSF and lost by a neck in Arkansas Derby. Nothing to dislike about the Kentucky Derby winner except the price. He'll be apart of all tickets.

I like the hard knockin' Dublin to find the exotic ticket. Making his 5th start of 2010 and his 8th dirt start.

Have fun with these. The Turk is about to get his "preak on" with a Camacho Room 101, his current stick of choice.

Turk Out!

Anatomy of a Bet: Oaklawn Park Pick 4, March 13, 2010

There are two distinct and independant parts to the process the Turk employs before placing a bet at either a Window or at YouBet: The Handicap and then the Bet Construction. The Turk is a practical man, borderline boring except for his affinity for cigars and bourbon, two very hip things discussed in paddocks all over the country. I advocate a year or so of handicapping without betting to the bored business travelers I prattle on with over a drink and stale pretzels on the airplanes I ride weekly. Why? Because money is pressure. Losing money is pressure. Why place pressure on yourself when you aren't ready? Take a year I tell people. Handicap a few races a week, just like a crossword puzzle or Suduko, and gain your skills. I doubt anyone listens but that's my advice.

The Turk is comfortable as a handicapper. There was a time when he did whole cards five days a week and it was during that time I worked out the fundamentals of what is important to me. My handicaping isn't sexy. I block and tackle and take the numbers on the paper and try to bring order from chaos. I prefer to handicap without the morning lines and I follow a simple rule: I never read about the race i'm going to handicap before I complete my base handicap. Why? It's not information, it's personal bias reported dutifully. It screws me up to read Trainer X tell me that his horse is ready or the opposite,tell me he's not ready but really mean he is ready and will kick everyone's ass. The time for me to read is after my work is done.

The Turk is a OK gambler and bet constructor. My edict is low risk, medium reward, and readers of the Turk see pre-race analysis from me and a steady supply of post race success. I say I'm OK because my fatal flaw is not the handicap but deciding when and where to put a little bit more skin in the game in order to hit the big payoff.

This past weekend I was penny wise, dollar foolish as I left a $304 Pick Four on the table. Why did I do this? Did I get the handicap wrong? Nope, I was trying to save $18 dollars. Make this a two dollar bet, costing me $108 and you have a $600 winner.

The Anatomy of the Bet: Race 8- Race 9 - Race 10- Race 11 OP March 13, 2010



The Honeybee kicked off the beginning of the Pick 4. Right off the bat I seized on a few horses that seemed better then the rest: No Such Word was in off a win, breaking 1:00 in 5f work and had an OP win. Negatives included a win on Slop, a distance increase and a class increase. Decelerator who I named my chalk, was on nice two race progression and was breezing well. Negatives were losing half a length on the last call of the previous race and rather slow fractions to boot. Beautician seemed the most accomplished but was off a long layoff and a horrible effort the last time out. A three horse boxed exacta cost me $24 but I won a handsome $103 for my troubles. The Pick four was dead though after one race and why? Because I was trying to not over select horses for the races and I deleted the wrong runner. It happens and we'll get back to that!

My analysis of the Honeybee scrawled into the DRF Deluxe Past Performance

In race 9 I narrowed down the list to Sea Gaze/2, Grensham/5 and Follow the Leader/7. Follow the Leader, the heavy chalk won easily. I had three selections in the Pick 4 and perhaps that was overkill.

My Analysis of Race 9, a OC/40K scrawled onto the DRF Deluxe Past Performance

In Race 10, The Rebel, I made no individual race bets as Dublin and Lookin at Lucky were just too poorly placed on the tote board and the bettor's didn't bite at all on this 7 horse field that had three good horses, one OK horse, one so so horse and two that are still running. Lookin at Lucky made me take notice as I don't pay much attention to 2 YOs and he hadn't raced in a long time and never on dirt. Dublin is quickly becoming a journeyman, a Grade I winner early as a 2 YO and mostly likely capable of Grade II and III wins as a 3 YO. I had two Pick Four selections here and was fine.

My Analysis of Race 10, The Rebel, scrawled onto the DRF Deluxe Past Performance

I spent some time on the large field that greeted me in Race 11. Being a confident handicapper (not arrogant, humble but confident) I never expect to be out of the Pick 4 by this point so i take the handicap to the extreme limit. I settled on three runners that I liked so much i boxed them as a trifecta too: Regions Reward/3, Logic/9 and Corralito's Way/10. I had this end of the Pick Four covered as well. The trifecta cost $12 dollars and returned $38 for my troubles.

My Analysis of Race 11, a MDC 15.5K scrawled onto the DRF Deluxe Past Performance

So where did it fall apart? Race 8. I went with two instead of three selections. I budgeted a $50 dollar-ish Pick Four but I got a bit foolish and thought better of myself. It happens, but if it happens to often, you leave, yes, money on the table!


Study your winning bets and the losers equally. While its always easier to savor the thrill of newfound money in your pocket, the key to getting more is understanding where your strengths and weaknesses are and improving.

Have fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: March 13, 2010: The Honeybee, The Rebel and the Oaklawn Park Pick 4

The weeks are ticking by as Winter has but 14 days left before Spring arrives. The Arkansas Derby is five weeks from today and The Rebel being run today at Oaklawn Park should go a long way towards identifying the potential to reach top condition for the Kentucky Derby. Speaking of the Kentucky Derby, that dapper gentleman to left should need no introduction, relevant again after a few lean years, the winner of the Kentucky Derby four times, 13 Triple Crown race victories overall and 18 Breeders' Cup races, Mr. D. Wayne Lukas who saddles Dublin and Decelerator today, the Turk's Chalk in The Rebel and The Honeybee. Let's get after it!

Oaklawn Park Race 8-9-10-11 Pick Four Including the Grade III Honeybee and the Grade II Rebel.



As always check the weather and the scratches and changes before finalizing your bets. Know the track condition and the potential track condition at the time the races go to the gate.

The Pick Four begins with Race 8, The Honeybee, that goes to Post at 5:42 Eastern Time. The field of nine contains some real quality centered around my choice of chalk, Decelerator. Winner of her last race and the loser by a nose before that, two solid back to back OP efforts with near equal 82 BSF. Nice work since the last outing a month ago and a new rider, Nakatani up. Decelerator is carrying 122 pounds, the heaviest of the combatants.

Making her first race in 2010, Beautician returns after an abysmal effort at Hollywood park in late December. Blinkers off today for trainer McPeek and he gives the mount to R. Albarado who has a win and a 2nd in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. A great 2 YO campaign, she shares a sire with Decelerator, Dehere.

No Such Word breaks from gate for Trainer Cindy Jones, looking for her first Graded Stakes win, but she sure knows how to find the winners circle and deserves to share some of the credit with her husband Larry for the successful trainer stats he put together over time. Comes in off an N1X win in the slop at OP on Valentines Day and is on the rise but has quite a class jump to hurtle.

For the Pick Four I'm leaning towards only my two two but may stretch to all three with my last toss Tiz Miz Sue.

For the Rebel, as I said I like Dublin to win in this race and I think he needs to win with a bit of conviction as well. About the only thing not to like from the Southwest Stakes was the slow final 1/4 mile and we will see what the extra 1/16 does for him. Two nice bullets since then, the fastest work of 149 other runners on those days combined. Nakatani is up here as well.

The fashionable Kentucky Derby pick for many weeks finally makes his 2010 debut, Looking at Lucky. First time on dirt for the Baffert runner, but the Hall of Fame Trainer does win 25% of his dirt races. Blinkers on today. His work pattern from SA does not show an improving progression but a minor factor for the Smart Strike son is capable of 1 1/16 mile wins, as he has two of the only three in the race. If he were to win, a big arrow will go up on his stock but the reality is he needs to have a solid race, be in the top three and set himself up for his last prep before the Kentucky Derby as his $1.2 MM in earnings will go a long way to securing his inclusion.

An interesting group that I'm torn on sits just below these two horses: Cardiff Giant appears to be no better then a Grade III contender and is winless on dirt but did have a good effort in the Southwest. Noble's Promise makes his first start on dirt and Uh Oh Bango owns the lifetime best BSF of the field lifetime and at this distance. I'm only including my top two in the Pick Four.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day February 20, 2010; The Fountain of Youth and P3 Plus Risen Star and Southwest Stakes

That handsome gentleman to the left, Mr. Red Auerbach, I didn't personally know. What I do know is the look of satisfaction with his cigar and the quiet reflection that comes when smoking one either in solitude or in the company of good men. The Turk had a major win today at the Fountain of Youth and he celebrated with a Rockey Patel Vintage 1999 Churchill. A very good cigar indeed and a handicap and constructed bet I'm quite estatic about.

Readers of the Turk know that he doesn't gloat and holds dear a handicappers creed that reminds him to stay grounded because for every good handicap there are several bad ones.

Without gloating I can say that today's win was about building a good base handicap, taking a stand on a horse to hit the top four that the betting public hated, and taking the time to construct a matrix of superfecta bets instead of relying on expensive boxed bets or 10 cent versions that return only 10% of the joy a person could receive.

Let's go!

Gulfsteam Park Race 8 - Race 9- Race 10

Fair Grounds Race 10

Oaklawn Park Race 10





The Gulfstream Park Pick 3 was an All Stakes Pick Three that ended up being won by two chalks and a bettor's third choice. The payout was pretty pathetic and clearly not worth the risk, but it's always better to win then loose and I strung together a winning pick three.

As I said pre race, I decided to bet the individual races as exactas. The D'funnybone/A Little Warm combo got the day started off on the right foot.

My Race 9 gamble on Rahy's Attorney did not pay off and I was left empty handed on the exacta but was still alive in the Pick 3 with the win by Courageous Cat.

Race 10, the Fountain of Youth, is where I did my good work today. It starts for me with the base handicap, devoid of as much pre race hype as possible. It's not easy to avoid hype of these Derby Trail contenders. This is the time of the year where 20 or so horses are treated/viewed as the next big thing. Some of the horses that lost today are very good runners, and the trainers know that the Derby is won in May and not in February, but being flat is being flat, and after each one of these prep races some stars will rise and some stars will fall. Buddy Saint's star fell and Eskendereya and Jackson Bend's stars rose or stayed high.

The bet was a matrix variety. It's the sort of bet I can construct in the quiet of my den but I could never pull off at the track. I took a stong opinion on the race; I thought that Buddy's Saint and Jackson Bend would both be either 1st or 2nd, I thought Aikenite could be anywhere from 2nd to 4th, I then placed Pleasant Prince in the 3rd and 4th spots and I settled on Eskendereya in all four spots. If Buddy's Saint finishes in the top two I'm writing about a nice $100 dollar superfecta and instead I'm writing about a $1400 dollar winner because I looked at the PPs and took a contrarian view on Pleasant Prince; A Wesley Ward trainee who had a nice progression of Beyers's, especially a last race 1 1/8 Mile 88 BSF and then three straight 5 furlong works over a 14 day period culminating in a handride at 1:00 1/5 seconds. I liked Ward's 21% off 31 day layoffs and 31% dirt score. Curent form, current form, current form! Buddy's Saint hasn't raced since November and his work isn't that impressive. Hype? Maybe, I think he's a quality colt and we'll see what he does when he runs back.

I was too giddy to do anymore serious betting and I had a Risen Star handicap that was a complete disaster and a Southwest Stakes handicap that was pretty good with the exception of Dryfly who just didn't feeling like driving for home when he should have been driving for home. Falling star, check.

Thanks to Mr. Tony Bada Bing for pointing out to the Turk the image I had choosen was Mr. Red Auerbach, it didn't occur to this old Celtics fan so shame on me.

Good Stuff! Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: February 15, 2010; The Southwest Grade III and Oaklawn Pick Four

Friends and readers, please let us remember our fallen stars and as I ponder the races today at Oaklawn Park I think about a Southwest Stakes winner, Lawyer Ron. A Woodward and Whitney Stakes winner, winner of the Rebel Stakes, Risen Star Stakes, The Southwest Stakes and the Arkansas Derby, he died tragically from colic less then a year ago. Rest in Peace Lawyer Ron.

The Turk is enjoying a Padron Family Reserve from the confines of his office in snow covered Western new York. A new year's resolution of mine was to attend this year's Arkansas Derby, but with Rachel and Zenyatta racing a day before, I now wonder how I will gain access to the track for less then the insane prices I'm seeing tickets be offered for. If any of my readers have a suggestion, please let me know.

Today I'm thinking about a sensible Pick Four that centers around the Southwest. These bets can get expensive so never bet more then you are prepared to lose. As I tell my non horse racing fans, compared to the s**t that is offered as entertainment these days, I'm OK with moderately priced gambling activity as my main source of pleasure. We all make our own choices!

Let's get it on! As always, follow procedure: Weather, Scratches/Changes and Tote Board.

Oaklawn Park races 7-10 including the Southwest Grade III



In the featured Southwest I'm backing Conveyance. Trained by Hall of Fame b. Baffert with Go-Go Gomez up, comes to his first dirt race off Grade III San Rafael and the fake dirt. A key race, his second effort off 45-180 layoff for the son of Indian Charlie. I'm not a big fan of taking horses on a new surface and betting them on top but I'm taking a chance on current form and ability and I think he's catching some of the others at a good time in the season.

Dryfly comes in off a pedestrian yet driving win in the Smarty Jones. Borel is up on the gelding for trainer Whiting who has pedestrian trainer stats but a win over the surface and looks very good right now.

I have Pleasant Storm and Dublin rated about equal here but only because of the long layoff and trouble that Dublin has had since his Grade I Hopeful. A very key race for Dublin to show some improvement but a win isn't an overwhelming need. Pleasant Storm is training well and goes over Oaklawn surface for second time in a month.

There is a solid middle tier of runners with Mission Impazible, Cardiff Giant and Kitty's Turn that could all hit the final ticket. Pletcher's Mission Impazible is winless on dirt, beaten by a head at GP and returns with J. Velaquez up. Cardiff Giant is the field leader with 10 starts but his first on dirt for trainer Periban with Santiago Reyes up. I like this gelding but not to win here.

I'm looking at a 2 X 2 X 3 X 2 pick four for a reasonably priced ticket of $24. Some pretty tough races make up the pick four, with a nice field in a Maiden Special Weight in race 7 that contains four Triple Crown nominees. I have two in the race but I really Madrid, running for Tim Ice who could use some good karma and I may insert Madrid later which would increase my bet to $36. That may be outside what I'm willing to lose today so I reserve the right to single Race 10 with Hayn Dawg.

Race 8 is a 5.5 furlong OC40K/N2X that I liked four horses in and I'm excluded Praderoso and Hidden Bay at my peril and Race 10 is a Maiden 15K affair with a 12 horse field and three pretty solid runners with the previously mentioned Hayn Dawg, Kygar and Stormin J D.

OK friends, have fun and Turk Out!