The Nomination Is In: The King Edward G2 at Woodbine

  Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet construction.  Today's focus is on Woodbine's The King Edward Grade 2.  How does the Turk pick which races he plans to handicap? I think one of my strengths as a handicapper is my experience handicapping all tracks, ages, surfaces, sexes, distances  and class over decades, but also my refinement of my turf racing eye. You'll find me handicapping most weekends 8-10 furlong races with fields of at least 8.  That's what makes the blogging interesting.  I generally use the Bloodhorse Stakes Calendar to help me understand what's in the Conditions Book for the particular weekend and then I use the tracks website to look at entries before I shell out money for a DRF Formulator Past Performance card.  I've used many PP's over the years but I enjoy Formulator and I believe in following a consistent approach to every handicap.  I've gone horizontal more this summer than I have in some time.  I like to anchor P4's to solid graded stakes on the turf.

So, that's it, no great mystery to the why's or the where's I handicap.  I do have favorite tracks, and Kentucky Downs has really become a favorite track of mine over past several years. I just find it compelling, and for a grass junkie, it checks all the boxes.

Bloodhorse Stakes Calendar

Let's get after it! 

I'm on a bit of a time crunch today so I'm just going to jump right to it:  I see Treason, War Bomber and Shirl's Speight as the class of the field with primarily the best late turns of foot and class.  

While I don't think he's the best, this is gambling:  I'm going to wheel War Bomber OVER Treason, Shirl's Speight, Pao Alto and Lucky Score, a $2 Exacta for $8.  Nothing complicated.   I liked War Bomber leaving The Connaught Cup at 7f a month ago, and with a better trip and more grass I like him even better.  

The Connaught Cup G2: 23 July 2023 Race 8 WO.  My handicap link is here:

  

Treason cuts back 1 panel from his Place effort in early July on Canada Day in the Dominion Day G3.  Watch War Bomber get dusted, now two efforts back from today.  

 

 Have fun friends, Turk Out.

Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 27, 2009; The King Edward Grade II at WO

A good race for the race fan in me. Pre-Race, I lamented the difference between being a race fan and a bettor. It's as big a gulf as the difference between handicapper and bettor, perhaps with more passion.

I'm a fan of Rahy's Attorney. He thrilled me with his Woodbine Mile win last year. I backed him in the Connaught Cup and he came up a bit short. Even yesterday I wasn't sure his current form was better then his challengers, so I backed Sterwins. The calculating bettor in me went against him and I fought the race fan in me who wanted to back him. Duality and dichotomy have no real place in this game.

Before I get all misty eyed and weepy, remember The Turk isn't a an advocate of betting to feel good. I handicap many races I never bet. I love the mental challenge, but when I bet, I bet to win. Win means different things to different people. To the Turk it means betting small dollars (generally less then $15/race) and turning it into either the same amount or a slightly bigger amount. Positive cash flow. While being happy for Rahy's Attorney return with panache (a new course record at 1:44.73), I was positive cash as well.

Race 7 WO: The King Edward Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on Canadian Turf for 3 YO and Up.



Because of the small field and the amount of heavily bet favorites who I knew would be in the top three, I declined any boxed bets. Instead I fashioned Tri bets based on my base handicap with Sterwins/Rahy's Attorney and I had one ticket with Society's Chairman and one with Baletti. Those went bust.

Round two I flipped Rahy's/Sterwins and placed Society's Chairman and Balletti on separate tickets for Show. That was the winner, and my $8 wagered returned $39.90.

I'm not really sure why the betting public liked Baletti so much. He ran a nice Allowance race recently with a 101 BSF, but betting him down that low against Grade II warriors like Sterwins and Rahy's Attorney wasn't reasonable.

The Bison City $250,000 is today at WO at 3:27 ET. It's 1 1/16 on fake dirt for Canadian foaled 3 YO fillies. We'll be back for that I reckon.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: June 27, 2009: The King Edward Handicap Grade II at WO

Deja Vu. Flash forward from May 24th and the top combatants are back at it again from the Connaught Cup Grade III at WO, run at 1 1/16 on Turf. Today's Grade II King Edward, run at 1 1/8 on Turf I reckon will have the same results. Before I go to far, in case you didn't see the news yet either, Terrain did pass away last night after he was injured in the Iowa Derby. He was my chalk in last night's affair and I never like to see that happen.

That fine looking colt pictured is Sterwins, winner of the before mentioned Connaught Cup.

Race 7 WO Post Time 4:01 ET: The King Edward Grade II; 1 1/8 on Turf for 3 YO and Up.



I'm semi-tempted to flip Sterwins and Rahy's Attorney but I can't make a strong enough argument that Turk favorite Rahy's Attorney is in better current form. It is his second race back after a long layoff, and I do believe he is a better horse. It's tough to be a horse fan AND a serious bettor, as conflicts do arise. It's a three horse race in my mind, but Baletiiis interesting and could upset the exotic cart.

Again, my sympathy to Terrain, trainer Stall and her owners.