Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 6, 2010; Aqueduct Toboggan and Gotham and Anatomy of a Bet: Santa Anita Handicap

The Turk uses a curious photo to kick off his Post Race Analysis today: Pictured to the left is a shot I took of Rail Trip nipping Dakota Phone at the wire in last year's Santana Mile at Santa Anita. Dakota Phone is a curious horse: 11 Place or Shows in 23 starts with 4 wins. On that particular day at the Santana Mile he closed furiously in the stretch and almost upset the unbeaten Rail Trip. He hasn't won in his last 10 starts but he's always around the action, finishing only a head behind the underrated Richard's Kid not even a month ago. He doesn't get much respect at the betting window, but I'm not the betting window. I know Dakota Phone likes to be near the action and this was a key in a very lucrative day for the Turk yesterday. Let's get after it!

The action began at Aqueduct with Races 4 - 5 - 6 and then 10 as well as Santa Anita Race 10


The day started off well in Race 4 at Aqueduct, a five horse edition of the Toboggan. My pre race analysis was pretty much dead on although I anticipated Custom for Carlos would be the bettors favorite choice but the savvy group that plays Aqueduct rarely miss a beat and rightly put Wall Street Wonder on the top of the tote board. An easy Tri and Exacta win came out of this race and I was alive in the Pick Three.

Did I say I was alive in the Pick Three? It didn't last long. Race 5 had my last toss out Goldsville winning and when I went back to the PP's I realized I dropped him for being a synthetic horse even though he had some dirt wins. No matter, I was dead and would have been deader in Race 6 as my first toss Spa City Baby won as a big longshot.

My Gotham handicap was pretty much junk too. I liked Wow Wow Wow but I knew breaking from the far outside meant expending alot of energy early. He did, took the lead and then got dropped like a stone. I always was surprised by Awesome Act being so highly regarded by the bettor's as about the only thing I liked was Leparoux up. As a handicapper, I study the carnage and then let it go.

After eating dinner I turned my attention to the race I was thinking about all day, the 14 horse Santa Anita Handicap with no clear favorite. To me that means big payouts. I've put together below the anatomy of how the winning bet was constructed. Betting is always a secondary thing for me. I build a base handicap which I list Pre Race and I assign arbitrary grades to each horse. I toss a certain portion of each field (In Red) and I try to build stratification layers of quality within the field. Generally the horses could care less and one RED Horse will inevitably break through and screw up the handicap, but if you are consistent and apply the principals week after week as your handicapping improves so will your bet construction. The two are symbiotic.

Anatomy of a Bet: Santa Anita Handicap



That is the type of bet construction I can only do in the peace and quiet of my own home or office and could never do at a track. I need solitude, I need my PP's and my google docs, and I need my handicapper's notes to remind me that I like Dakota Phone, that Neko Bay is never respected, that betting for the first filly in 73 years isn't a great bet and that I should build a handicap that could survive watching my first and third choices finish out of the money.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: March 6, 2010: The Santa Anita Handicap Grade I

That fine looking 5 YO Mare to the left is St. Trinians (GB),a fitting Turk chalk in a large but flawed field contesting today's Big'Cap. A win by St. Trinians would be the first ever by a filly or mare in the Santa Anita Handicap's 73 year history, a lofty goal for a gal winning N2X's in December. Keep your eye on the weather and the track conditions as it was raining at the time of this writing. The Turk, like many other handicappers and horse racing fans, has been wildly frustrated by spending hours handicapping Santa Anita Saturday Stakes cards only to find out the surface didn't drain and the races cancelled. I was equally dismayed to read the comments of the bankrupt track owner that he's in no hurry to end this disastrous experiment and return to the surface embraced by America, dirt. I love the Great Race Place but it kills me to handicap races and then hope the rain doesn't fall. It's too late, let's go!

Santa Anita Race 10 Post Time 7:38 ET: The Santa Anita Handicap Grade I; 1 1/4 Miles on melting fibers and gunk that doesn't drain water well, for 4 YOs and Up.



St. Trinians (GB) is 9 of 10 in the money on poly tracks, 3 of 3 at Santa Anita and has 4 wins in last four starts. The 5 YO mare is trained by M. Mitchell with Rosario Up, a combination that hits 31% of the time. Trainer Mitchell also wins 30% of his Won Last Start starters but only 9% of Graded Stakes. A sharp two time 1 1/16 winner whose style is that of mid pack closer. It's never a good handicapping angle to pick a horse to do something that no one else has ever done so bet at your own peril. Me personally, I'm planning to bet to wheel several exotics and I just need the mare to finish Top Four.

Neko Bay is a classy Giant's Causeway son who has 5 Santa Anita wins but most on the old dirt surface. A nice Grade II win in early January and sharp training efforts make him a top four finisher for the combo of Trainer Shirreffs and M. Smith, up. Shirreffs Grade Stakes win rate is 40% and he's 29% in Routes and 39% in Won Last Starts. Good Stuff!

Speaking of not betting horses to do things they haven't done yet, Loup Breton (Ire) is an immensely talented turf runner trying synthetic for the first time. Comes in off of three nice efforts, two wins and a loss by a neck, has Gomez up for the Canali trainee. Canali's Turf/Synth hit rate is 32% and he wins 41%of the time he teams up with Go-Go.

I'm slipping Dakota Phone into the mix. Always overlooked and always capable of place or show, 15 of 23 in the money for the 5 Yo gelding.

With a big field I have Misremembered, Mast Track, Marsh Side and Jeranimo in the contender pile for one of the top four spots. About the only thing I haven't thought through is how deep and how expensive I want my exotics to cost me. Having 8 of the 14 runners here in the mix is overkill and too expensive a bet. I'll build what I call a matrix and I'll slot the horses out pretty close to my base handicap, with the horses in yellow good for Show and 4th mostly.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination is In: May 9, 2009; The Mervyn Leroy Handicap Grade II at Hollywood Park

I'm not a big fan of six horse fields. The problem is sometimes horses that I really like race in small fields. Now I could just watch and not bet. That was my preconception before getting out the PPs for this race. I suspected that Dakota Phone would give Rail Trip another hard run and could win, especially with the extra distance and the 4 YOs propensity to close hard, but I thought Rail Trip, the heavy duty chalk, would win. Zzzzzzzzzz. Then I got interested. Aggie Engineer, a horse off my radar, a 4 YO with six career starts, no graded stakes, and the owner of a 6f bullet on May 1st and a 100 BSF at 1 Mile in early April caught my eye. To the sharp eyed or those with a magnifying lens, those two horses dueling at the wire are Rail Trip and a nose back Dakota Phone.

Race 8 HOL: The Mervyn Leroy Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 mile on fake dirt for 3 YO and Up.



I'm still not sold on the merits of betting this race. I'll be watching the tote closely and the key for me will be the odds that Aggie Engineer attracts and how much money chases Ball Four and Dakota Phone as well. Ball Four laid a clunker in early January and has been freshened since then. The 8 YO has the experience to come off the bench and be sharp, but I question his legs. I am curious what Trainer Biancone might coax from this proud animal, I hope its all good. The fine looking Jockey/Horse combo is A. Solis up on 2008 Mervyn Leroy Handicap winner Surf Cat.Oh yeah, A. Solis is up on Aggie Engineer.