Post Race Handicapping Analysis: The Honey Fox G3 at Gulfstream

Welcome Friends to The Turk blog. 

I write handicapping analysis of generally Graded Stake horse races. I started handicapping in 1986 when I spent a summer in Saratoga training to operate nuclear reactors in the sleepy town called Ballston Spa. I lived just blocks from the track. In the mid 1970's, like a lot of kids who grew up in that era, my only access to horse racing was older relatives, ABC Wide World of Sports and Sports Illustrated Magazine.  I had an Aunt, my dear Aunt Rose, who would baby sit me from time to time on Saturdays while my dad worked volunteering at a nearby Boys and Girls Club, and she was my first contact with the sport. I remember sitting at my older cousins house in 1977 watching Seattle Slew win the Preakness at a second cousin's first communion party. I loved reading Sports Illustrated, an era before the instant access internet, and I read and was fascinated by Formula One, Professional Boxing and Horse Racing. It was a simple time in a young boys life. 

In 1986, I was a young man, not quite 20, living in a paradise-like Saratoga (Jumel Place, just blocks from the Oklahoma Training Track.) The highlight that summer was seeing Sylvester Stallone with a bevy of women surrounding him. I worked a lot of mid and night shifts and I would grab the Daily Race Form with my breakfast and handicap. It was like a crossword puzzle to me and the next day I'd see if I was any good. Gambling was never really my thing, but I liked to predict.

Not much has changed in almost 40 years. I hate the term "tout," a label which is what bloggers like me get pigeonholed into. I'm touting no one. My handicaps and my bet constructions are offered free of charge, I have never made any attempt to monetize the blog, and all I'm doing is carefully unpacking a race each week at a level that the track handicapper doesn't have the time to do. Morning Lines and Track Handicappers miss signs, miss over and underlays, because they are busy, because they are surrounded by biases, perceived or not. One race a week I get into the mitochondrial and look for how the field should finish. I offer a bet suggestion on a simple exacta only basis, and the rest is up to you. 

I find my blog to be a relaxing therapy to the hustle and bustle of my job. Operations at a publicly traded company is high stakes, high expectations. Handicapping is an escape for a few hours each week. Horse racing is like a time machine back to Aunt Rosie's couch on 19th Street.

Anyways, I like to build these post race analysis looks at my handicapping, primarily for two reasons:  What did I miss or get right in that race and who should I quietly be watching for in an upcoming race. I will tell you I have had great success watching horses finish 4th or 5th up the track in one race, but showing me something with late turn of foot and stride, and finding them as overlays when most think of them as underlays.  

The Honey Fox G3: Fillies and Mares 4 YO and Up over Firm Turf: 1 Mile. GP.

Honey Fox G3

Race Chart

I identified Princess Theorem and Faith In Humanity (Fr) pre race.  

Faith In Humanity (Fr) Notes:

I really liked her early speed and her post position and thought she'd come out of gate and throttle this race.  Sharp works, with two bullets at 5f in late February.  Of course, being a Brown horse his stats off the layoff are good.  And finally, she was a grade 3 (class neutral) horse.  I still think Speak of the Devil (Fr) is the better horse, but not yesterday, and she herself was coming off a layoff since last June.  

Princess Theorem Notes:

When you are looking for value that that fill the second spot in an exacta, this is exactly what you are looking for.  I didn't think the mare could win, but late speed and a last race win at the distance and over same surface is a recency nod I can't ignore.  -2 Class note is to me she's a 25K OC horse, not a Grade 3.  

Look at :23 second final quarter in last race.

Yes, she finished Show, but could have easily finished Place.  The $1 Trifecta with her paid $373.80.  If you would have taken my top four and boxed them, you win the Tri.  The $2 Exacta, my juice, paid $48.60.  

I'm not touting, I'm analyzing at a level that no track handicapper could possibly because there are not enough hours in the day.  

Aunt Rosie

Have fun friends, Turk out! 

The Nomination Is In: The Honey Fox G3 and The Turk Hits the 700th Post Milestone

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. Today's post mark's a real milestone for this blogger, my 700th Post. 

 So much has changed since September 2008 when I wrote my first tentative posting. In the world that was just before Twitter, Facebook hadn't fully blown up yet, and horse racing, while damaged at that point, was not the devalued product we see now. Hollywood and Arlington, two of my favorite tracks, were there and now gone, not to mention countless synthetic racing surfaces. 

 I joined a blogging alliance, but by the time I joined it was obvious that blogging was a dinosaur medium, with long form writing being replaced by 140 characters. As Prince said, A sign of times. My blog, even in the best of days, was never highly read. My focus on handicapping pigeonholed me and limited my readership. I've stayed true to what I like to do and I've never worried about monetizing my efforts or increasing my clicks. I write what I write, and if it's read by even one person, that makes me happy.

 There have been moments when I considered quitting the blog. My love of horse racing perhaps hit a 30 year low at the beginning of COVID. It coincided with the death of both Poppa and Pops, my Father in Law and Father, in a span of weeks. The world was a dark place. Racing was turned on its head, and I just lost interest. 

It wasn't until late last year did I start to regain my love of both blogging and horse racing. My job has become very busy, as we took our business to the publicly traded market and grown it significantly. Its put a cramp on my automotive restoration activities (slowed, not stopped) but created a need for this form of mental health: the deconstruction and decoding of past performances and race charts into betting possibilities. Over time I've narrowed my focus even further, primarily focused on two things: Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. Also over time I dropped my son, The Little Turk, from the blog title. While my not so little 23 year old will still take horse racing road trips with me (Del Mar just before COVID), he has his own sporting interests (The Buffalo Bills, Sabres and Fantasy Football) that he is pursuing.

So, The Turk remains, older, still bald, but more importantly,  a wise old handicapper who has created positive ROI over a long period of time by focusing on the fundamentals of handicapping, avoiding the parts of the conditions book I'm not good at, and decoupling handicapping from Bet Construction, with an eye towards winning battles and ignoring the war.  

Without too much fanfare, just like the last 699 posts, I present to you my thoughts on The Honey Fox, a 1 mile turf affair at Gulfstream on Fountain of Youth day.  I made a rare foray back onto dirt as well this weekend, and my thoughts on the Santa Anita Handicap can be found here as well.  

The Honey Fox G3: 1 Mile over Fast Turf at GP

I'll keep my betting simple today.  I think Chad Brown's Speak of the Devil (Fr) is a beast: 8 of 11 Distance Exacta, 9 of 16 Turf Exacta, 4 wins in last 9.  

I'll single Speak of the Devil (Fr) with some of the value horses on the board at post time.  Nothing fancy, just workmanlike betting that is rooted in fundamental math. 

If you want to really hunt for value, consider adding Faith in Humanity (Fr) to the win spot.  4 YO, also trained by Brown, will have the rail and great early speed.  White Frost will also get some attention from savvy bettors:  Last time out winner over this surface at this distance, the Mott trained Candy Ride mare is four of four in the Turf exactas lifetime.  2nd off a long layoff that included all of 2022.  

Have fun friends! Turk out.