The Nomination Is In: January 17, 2010; Santa Anita Park Pick Three Races 6-8

The Turk had some fun with a low risk, and ultimately no reward day yesterday on a Pick Three at Santa Anita so I thought I'd do it again. I hit two out of three on a 3 X 2 X 3 $1 dollar, $18 dollar total bet that paid $33 dollars because of wins by two very favored animals.

I think the moral of this type of bet is to keep the risk low but don't bother betting it if you don't think you can make a case for the bettor's second or third or even lower choices, as chalk hunting won't pay off and this is a harder bet and costs a bit more then say a 10 cent super with a five horse box.

Ok, let's get after it!

Santa Anita Park Races 6-7-8; The Late Pick Three; First Post Time 6:06 ET



Right off the bat you'll notice I've sized the bet to fit the maximum I want to wager. Today's Pick Three is a 2 X 3 X 3 for $18 dollars. I have ranted before about how much I have enjoyed various handicapping books only to have my stomach turn when I read the money management sections of those tomes. Money management is a personal decision and your decision should be to carve out positive ROI using whatever manner of bet gives you the best chance to do that. I generally avoid multi race bets that include N1X,
N2X, OC ALW, as they are just fraught with too many intangibles. That said, they are fun and occasionally I like to just have fun and not focus on the workmanlike, salt mine worker mentality that I often need to scrape out positive cash on these heavily scrutinized stakes runners that I favor. I built a bet with a wager amount I feel comfortable knowing that I have a better chance of losing then winning with. This will get old very quick but for now, I'm amused. It's tempting to throw extra choices into these bets, don't!

In Race 6, a 6.5 furlong downhill turf course 32K Claimer, I chopped the 11 horse field down to 4 and then ultimately 2 horses, Noblety/3 and Crossing the Line (NZ)/7. I had the #1 horse, Figeac and the #6 Ten Meropa in the mix but this was the race I settled on getting myself to two choices. Noblety will most likely enter the gate as the bettor's favorite and Crossing the Line has won 5 times in 8 tries on turf and would give me more value.

In Race 7, a 6.5 furlong OC 80K/N1X fake dirt race for CA bred 3 YOs with other restrictions I narrowed the 8 horse field to three runners, A Plus Topper/2, High Success/3 and Runaway Bandido/7 with my last toss out Wolf Tail/6. Runaway Bandido will enter the gate somewhere around 3rd or 4th bettor's favorite and I like the horse to win after working nicely, a drop in distance from 1 1/16 in a 100K stakes race, and sporting Mr. Mike Smith up.

In Race 8, The El Encino Grade II, 1 1/16 miles on fake dirt for F&M 4 YO and up, I like Justwhistledixie/9 to win as the bettor's top choice, but she should get a better price because of the inclusion of Stardom Bound/7 in the field. I don't underestimate Rose Diamond (Ire)/1 as a possible winner and my last toss was Spirit Seeker/11.

Again, I think these Pick Three's are alot of fun, especially when you get past the first race alive, I just don't think they will help my ROI very much long term. That said, have fun and Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: Belmont Stakes Day Race 9: The Acorn Grade I

No waxing poetic today on the races I've handicapped so far. The Acorn to me seems very wide open. Justwhistledixie will be the chalk at post time, of that I am very sure. 5 Straight wins, 5 of 6 on dirt and 7 of 7 lifetime in the money gives you that sort of respect, but the devil is in the details. No races since late March and some fine females around her going off at odds that are lower then they should be. It creates a beat the chalk angle that alone is worth chasing. Let's give it a twirl. By the way, that horse above is Zaftig with J. Velazquez up, winner of the 2008 Acorn in a picture taken by Cindy Pierson Dulay.

Race 9 BEL: The Acorn Grade I; 1 Mile on Dirt for 3 YO Fillies.



I don't have a bet strategy yet, but I know I'm going hunting for exacta and trifecta glory and I'll be boxing my selections. 10 cent superfectas are always in fashion as well.

I think Justwhistledixie is just to good to not be top 3, so she'll be there on every ticket. I'll work my basic handicap after that and I'm going to play Funny Moon in the top spot on several tickets and hope for the best. The tough part will be the middle of this handicap: I don't see much seperating the quality of Casanova Marie, Dream Play, Four Gifts and Doremifasollatido, and the morning line refelcts that, making all four 6-1. I think I like them in the order I have them in my basic handicap.

The Nominations are in: November 28th, 2008

I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving. The Turk, along with little Turk and the whole Turk brood keep a low profile on Turk-ey day, but we feel pretty safe now that the feather frenzy is over.

I'm looking to handicap and enjoy 4 particular races today.

Race 3 at the Big A is The True Affair, a 7F jaunt around cold dirt for Fillies 2 YO.

The ML favorite is at 3-1, a Kiaran McLaughlin trained, Garcia ridden, West Point Tbreds owned Justwhistledixie. This is a tough race to call and I'm predicting a good payout for the winner as well as some insight into these baby girls, which is why we are paying atention instead of lined up like lemmings outside a box store.

Race 11 at CD is the 1 1/8 mile, G2, The Clark Handicap, being held for the 135th time. There are some horses as a horse fan I really enjoy and this is quite a treat to get this lineup. I most likely won't be betting because I think, but also want, Commentator, the ML 1-1 favorite, to run away with it. The Turk loves Commentator, and that's why I'm smart enough to not get too carried away with betting this one. I will say, if you can make make an arguement against Commetator, the money will be there. That will be my approach. I really liked Einstein early this year, unraced since the Arlington Mile way back in early August.

The last tw races for me today will both be at HOL. Race 6 is The Miesque, a 1 mile G3 for 2 YO Fillies on Turf. Kiaran McLaughlin again has the ML favorite, 5-2 Habaya, running for Shadwell Farms today with R. Migliore up. I wonder what's like to have a barn full of potential like Kiaran seems to have had the past few?

And finaly, Race 8 at Hollywood, The Citation Handicap, G1, 1 1/16 miles raced across Turf for 3YO and up. ML favorite is Whatsthescript coming off a 99 Beyer in the Breeder's Cup Mile. I'm going to be studying this one closely as I think it will be a great race with a good payout most likely.

The Turk is settling in for a little work and a little pleasure. I appreciated the kind notes of Thanksgiving blessings from strangers but readers of the Turk. I hope you all enjoy some good leftovers and some great races.