The Nomination Is In: November 28, 2009; The Cigar Mile Grade I at Aqueduct

With the green yoke is Bribon (Fr), The Turk's chalk in today's Cigar Mile at Aqueduct. In this Vanessa Ng photo Bribon battles and ultimately beats Smooth Air at the Met Mile, the highlight so far in the 6 YO geldings career. Trainer Ribaudo brings the Mark of Esteem (Ire) son up against a small but strong field today for a stiff test. Let's go!

Race 9 Aqueduct; The Cigar Mile Grade I; 1 Mile on Dirt; A Handicap for 3 YOs and Up (Google Docs Spreadsheet attached)



Scratches and Changes you'll find here. The weather can be seen here.

Bribon (Fr) has rested and trained since a Woodbine Mile effort that produced a running line "in touch, all out drive". His 99 BSF was nowhere near good enough to beat Ventura on that day but this is a quality grade stakes miler. Capable of a mid 100+ BSF. Ran a :59 flat 5 furlong work at Belmont that past week. Looking for tenth win in thirty starts. It will take his best effort and I'll be hedging down on 1/2 of my tickets to Place.

Kodiak Kowboy will provide a very stiff challenge to Bribon and is more then capable of winning this race. Coming in off a Grade I win in the slop at Belmont at 6 furlongs. Was pointed to Breeders' Cup but had some mucus in his lungs that needed to be cleaned out. 13 day break in works from 2 November to 15 November, with a sharp 6 furlongs in 1:12 3/5ths on that day. Looking for third Grade I win in 2009 and makes twenty third career start and is looking for win eleven.

Pyro, the supremely talented 4 YO son of Pulpit is the career money earnings leader in this race, but an erratic career it has been, making seventeenth start and looking for win number six and his first at 1 Mile. He comes in off a rather pointless trip to the Breeders' Cup where he was forced to again prove he doesn't like fake dirt. Has Migliore up today for Trainer bin Suroor.

Coupled to Pyro is his stable mate, Vineyared Haven, another Godolphin runner that coulda, shoulda been better by this point in his career. A nice 6f Grade I win in the slop at Laurel in late October and before that a DQ in the King Bishop, also in the slop, in fact hasn't raced on fast dirt since a Grade I win at Belmont in October 2008 beating Munnings and Cribnote, two that could have spiced this event up today.

So what are we to do with this? A small field with two potential winners coupled together and one toss, Vacation)that offers value without any real prospect of cashing.

I'm thinking low risk, medium reward bet strategy. Driven by Success comes in off a sloppy win at 6f and most likely will set a blistering pace as he did in the Met Mile. I'll take a position of betting him to Show and then mixing and matching a few Win and Place candidates in straight Trifecta betting. We'll have some fun and keep the exposure low.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 29, 2009: The King's Bishop and the Travers Stakes

That fine looking colt in the Adam Coglianese/NYRA photo is none other then Capt. Candyman Can, the winner of the 2009 King's Bishop at Saratoga on August 29th.

OK, I'd be remiss to not mention it was by inquiry and the disqualification of Vineyard Haven.

Vineyard Haven ran a strong race and looked like the dominant two year old he was at this time last year before his Triple Crown bid was ruined by a winter sojourn to Dubai and the home of his owners. It's within their rights, but this horse loves dirt, North American dirt, and he had this race sewn up but couldn't keep it together despite the hard work of Alan Garcia.

All that said, Capt. Candyman Can was bringing it the last few hops and I think would have won this race if not for the double bump that knocked him off stride. A classy ride by Castellano who coolly motioned at the stewards and knew the result of this inquiry from the moment it hit the board.

The Turk loves the King's Bishop. Some of the Turk's favorite runners over the last few years have thrilled me in the Travers warm-up match. While this years edition wasn't one for the ages it wasn't a snoozer either.

SAR Race 11: The King's Bishop Grade I; 7F on Dirt for 3 YOs.



My handicap was good, not earth shattering. I have struggled on Saratoga dirt most of the meet so the Capt. Candyman Can victory and my exacta payout was good medicine.



SAR Race 12: The Travers Stakes Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on NYS Dirt for 3 YOs.



As a handicapper who takes his opinions publicly, you sometimes make a choice and then get buyers remorse. That's exactly what happened with me and Quality Road.

The Turk has said before that he builds his handicaps in a vacuum. I don't like to read any pre race hype from the trainers or the TV talking heads and I don't like seeing the Morning Line until I set my own. That process works for me usually.

In this case, everything I heard and read about the preparation of Quality Road to jump from 6 1/2 furlongs to the classic distance made me feel sorta dumb and by the time the race went to post I regretted my chalk selection. That doesn't happen to me often. His antics going into the gate were all it took to add the -ey to my name.

Would I have selected Summer Bird? No. This Bird did impress me very much and my irrational opinion of his abilities at 1 1/4 miles is now gone. I did bet my base handicap but I boxed the $1 superfecta, but Hold Me Back through a wrench in those works.

It's hard to be down when you pick 4 of the top five, nearly in a row, but a win is a win and a loss is just another ripped up ticket.

Was this one a classic? It established Summer Bird as the current top three year old and it underscored that the class of the 3 YO division is either retired, injured, or a filly.

The Turk is headed to Saratoga for the Woodward. Drop me a line, I'd love to meet any of my readers near the paddock before a race. Either Sister Turk or Little Turk will be joining me. If Little Turk comes, he's prepared to offer his iron pipe locks for the late pick 4 in return for Lego's.

Best Regards, Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 29, 2009; The King's Bishop Grade I at Saratoga

That good looking colt in the Terence Dulay photo is none other then the 2007 King's Bishop Winner, Hard Spun. That was one heck of a hard knocking, hard charging horse, and you have to wonder when handicapping which one of today's King's Bishop contenders has the kind of guts needed to run flat out for seven furlongs.

The weather at race time looks iffy. Right now the track is already listed as sloppy, so don't expect a miracle dry out between now and post.

Race 11 at Saratoga, Post Time 5:10 ET: The King's Bishop Grade I; 7 Furlongs on sloppy dirt for 3 YOs.



The Turk has had great success handicapping Turf races at Saratoga this meet and I've been so-so on the main track. You should never lie to yourself. When I visited Saratoga last week I decided to watch the races closely and handicap but not bet. After each race I ripped apart the trip and my handicap and I worked out a few kinks. I'd love to say that I had a satori, a sudden awakening, that will instantly improve my Saratoga dirt ROI, but no.

I did have two sloppy track days to just sit and watch from the clubhouse. One thing that struck me was how fast the main track played while still listed as sloppy. The other thing that an off track teaches you is that quality horses win under almost all conditions. The Turk's basic philosophy is to build my base handicap regardless of track condition and then factor track condition into the shading between horses. It's a factor, yes, but does it dominate all thinking, no.

Post position is another factor, but not an overriding consideration, much less significant then say, current race conditioning. Many people will tell you that Big Drama won the race before the race, and with Coa up and breaking from the 8 spot, he will have the best view coming out out of the top of the stretch. Mrs. Turk clearly feels that way as she's backing Big Drama. There is lots to like, especially the 2 for 3 at this distance and a BSF of 108. I don't like that 5 of 6 career wins were as a 2 YO and that the horse has never raced on a wet or sloppy track. Will he like mud in his face? On the outside, will he eagerly move inside and come off the pace? I dunno. What I do know is I think the horse has the quality to be somewhere in the top three.

I'm backing Capt. Candyman Can in my top spot. I don't think he's better then either Big Drama or Munnings, but this is gambling and I think he loves this distance, is coming off a big effort against Quality Road and has won on an off track before. There's nothing in either Trainer Wilkes or Jock Catellano's stats that make me feel strongly, but there are no major negatives either. The horse is a Grade II and Grade III winner and this son of Candy Ride is a quality runner who likes to break late and may find two fast, superior horses tiring from the slop.

Munnings is a big favorite of mine. I love the speed of this very classy Speightstown son very much. He has run a 108 BSF on an off track and a 111 BSF at this distance. To me he is the best horse in this field and could easily win and has no excuse for not being in the top three.

A few intriguing horses lurk outside the top three. Despite the Odds is mid pack from gate 5, is training very well and has run very well and fast on a sloppy track. Vineyard Haven is a Godolphin runner I loved last fall and I don't have any feel for how he will respond to his first action since February. Everyday Heroes and Flat Bold are solid Grade III runners and could sneak into the exotic tickets.

I'm on the hunt for a trifecta as super's are not on the menu for this race. I'm going to place a few straight trifecta and exact bets and we'll see what happens.

Have fun. Turk Out!

October 4th 2008: BEL Race 9

G1, The Champagne for 2yos. 1 Mile on Main track.

"...I have a contrarian position the chalk. I like the 7 horse Ventana, whose ML is 8-1. This Baffert horse won at 6f his last time out and since has had a string of constant and solid works at Belmont. I'll be looking for real value here on a win bet. "

The Turk is never ashamed to admit he missed. It's part of critical analysis and getting better at the craft of handicapping. I really believed that Ventana would not only compete, but possibly win. The Baffert colt finished dead last and never challenged.

The only G1 winner before this race was today's winner, Vineyard Haven. The knock on Vineyard Haven was that the G1 Hopeful had a bad start and he won by default. I didn't buy that after looking at the Equibase Race Chart ($1.50). That said, Cribnote and Munnings came to run today and the top three today were the top three (with Munnings and Cribnote flip flopping) from the Hopeful. We seem to have some juvenile contenders finding their pecking order.

Said Vineyard Haven's jockey, Edgar Prado "I saw the horse win in Saratoga. I’ve ridden him a couple of times (in the mornings). He broke nice and easy. I had pressure, but he kept pricking his ears and going so easily. I was moving along a little bit, but when I called on him, he just accelerated. How many horses do you know that can do that: go fast, relax on the turn and then find another gear? I had to ease up in the last part because he was opening up too much on the group.”

The ML chalk, Tagg's Hello Broadway finished 5th. Another horse I liked and bet, Gone Astry, closed quickly but ran out of ground. I'll be looking for him at 1 1/16 the next time out.

Vineyard Haven paid $10.40 to win. Sometimes value stares you right in the eyes.