The Nomination Is In: The Canadian Stakes G2 at Woodbine

 

Starting in the chute, 2.2 Furlongs after the turn to the line

Welcome Friends To the Turk Blog, where I focus on turf racing and exacta betting.  It's been some time since I've handicapped Woodbine.  No particular reason for avoiding this track, it's actually not that far from my house (about 45 miles and one international bridge crossing away) and The Turk has enjoyed many an afternoon in the facility, with Woodbine Mile Day on my list of annual fun.  

It's a big track, a 1 mile dirt oval and an absolutely enormous turf route.  Today is Connaught Cup G2 day, which is Race 7, but I'm going to look at the race just before it for the blog, the G2 Canadian Stakes for Fillies and Mares 3 YO and Up.  

It's a small field with a HUGE morning line favorite.  I like to be contrarian in my betting but not in my handicapping.  Gimme a Nother (SAf), first time lasix, multiple G1 winner in South Africa, a place in G2 Hillsborough in Tampa, place in G3 Modesty at Churchill, well back of She Feels Pretty over yielding turf at SAR in the G1 New York.  45.5%, 6-5 Morning Line?  That has to be in metric or something.  A very good mare but will she win this G2 5 out of 10 times?

Let's get after it!

The Canadian Stakes G2:  1 1/8 Miles (1 turn) on Turf.

Let's take a look at that New York G1 race and see how she moves.

6 June 2025 SAR: The New York G1; 1 3/16ths on Yielding Turf

8 March 2025 TAM: The Hillsborough G2;  1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf

What a difference in those two races.  She moved really well in a field that will be more like today's field than one with She Feels Pretty in it.  Carrying top weight at 124.  

28 June 2025 WO: The Nassau G2; 1 Mile on good Turf.

By all looks, Gimme Me Nother (SAf) should win this race, but let's think contrarian and make a low risk, high reward bet:

4-3 Over 2-3-4, a $2 Exacta for $8.  I will place a $2 Rolling Double on 4 in Race 6 and 3-8 Race 7.  

Not a lot of deep thought here, just looking to knock off that huge favorite.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The King Edward G2 at Woodbine

  Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet construction.  Today's focus is on Woodbine's The King Edward Grade 2.  How does the Turk pick which races he plans to handicap? I think one of my strengths as a handicapper is my experience handicapping all tracks, ages, surfaces, sexes, distances  and class over decades, but also my refinement of my turf racing eye. You'll find me handicapping most weekends 8-10 furlong races with fields of at least 8.  That's what makes the blogging interesting.  I generally use the Bloodhorse Stakes Calendar to help me understand what's in the Conditions Book for the particular weekend and then I use the tracks website to look at entries before I shell out money for a DRF Formulator Past Performance card.  I've used many PP's over the years but I enjoy Formulator and I believe in following a consistent approach to every handicap.  I've gone horizontal more this summer than I have in some time.  I like to anchor P4's to solid graded stakes on the turf.

So, that's it, no great mystery to the why's or the where's I handicap.  I do have favorite tracks, and Kentucky Downs has really become a favorite track of mine over past several years. I just find it compelling, and for a grass junkie, it checks all the boxes.

Bloodhorse Stakes Calendar

Let's get after it! 

I'm on a bit of a time crunch today so I'm just going to jump right to it:  I see Treason, War Bomber and Shirl's Speight as the class of the field with primarily the best late turns of foot and class.  

While I don't think he's the best, this is gambling:  I'm going to wheel War Bomber OVER Treason, Shirl's Speight, Pao Alto and Lucky Score, a $2 Exacta for $8.  Nothing complicated.   I liked War Bomber leaving The Connaught Cup at 7f a month ago, and with a better trip and more grass I like him even better.  

The Connaught Cup G2: 23 July 2023 Race 8 WO.  My handicap link is here:

  

Treason cuts back 1 panel from his Place effort in early July on Canada Day in the Dominion Day G3.  Watch War Bomber get dusted, now two efforts back from today.  

 

 Have fun friends, Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The Connaught Cup G2 at Woodbine

 Welcome Friends to The Turk blog.  I've been a handicapper since 1986 and a Horse Racing Blogger since 2008 with a general specialization of older horses running across a route of grass with exacta bet constructions.  I've been flexing my turf sprint chops over the last few weeks for a change of pace as I like to make sure I don't ignore my handicapping on these sort of races.  I've been handicapping for a long time, and my approach to how I analyze a race has been refined over a long period of time.  My influences are pretty standard for handicappers of my generation: Tom Ainslie, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz.  My own derivative method is to break down these races for Early and Late Speed, Class, Distance, Form and Work, Jockey and Jockey/Trainer stats.  I video handicap when I have time and I feel like I need more context.  I block and I tackle.  What I don't do is handicap looking at the Morning Line, nor do I read articles about the races or the runners before I handicap.  I try to leave other's bias out of my analysis and only deal with my own inherent biases.  

Woodbine is the closest major track to The Turk's home base of Western New York.  I had the pleasure of going to the Fort Erie Race Track last week, the first time since COVID ended.  I learned to play sprints by playing Fort Erie ad nauseum when I was younger.  It's a wonderful track with an uncertain future.  

Today's 7f, 1 turn Connaught Cup Stakes G2 at Woodbine has a nice 10 horse field with a 9 YO favorite, Wesley Ward's Bound for Nowhere, to me sets up a great chance to bet against the old veteran son of The Factor.

Let's get after it!

Connaught Cup G2:  WO 7f on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up

Years ago when I stopped handicapping with any foreknowledge of the Morning Lines, I learned that I was able to spot under and overlays easier.  That said, I had to develop my ability to handicap and set my own fair lines.  In today's race War Bomber (Ire) jumped off the page to me as an overlay.  Let's take a look at his last time out on the Canada Day holiday, the  1 1/8 mile Dominion Day G3 on fake dirt.  

Cutting back will only help, as the blistering 1:11 3/4 mile pace he's up for, just not much beyond that. Good early speed, should be forwardly placed.  20-1 Morning Line,  3 wins in five WO starts, 3 wins in 7 turf starts, winless in two  2023 starts.  I like for a win bet at the right price.  Jock Civaci jumps to Lucky Score, so he's most likely skeptical too!

Lucky Score and Dream for Tomorrow will be respected by the bettors. Lucky Score is moving up a furlong in distance (unraced previously a 7f) but is 4 of 6 Win/Place at WO and over turf and hit triple digit Beyer last time out, also on Canada Day, the Grade 2 Highlander, 6f over grass.  

 

That was a hell of a ride by Civaci to win at the wire at $14.30.  Dreams for Tomorrow has 25% winner Patrick Husband, up, for McGaughey who ships in. The 6 YO is cutting back 1f.  Should be tactical and within a few lengths of the lead at top of stretch and possesses excellent closing speed from there.     

Bound for Nowhere is my kind of horse.  The 9 YO won a G2 last year here at Woodbine but is off to a slow start in 2023.  Adding distance from past two race 5.5f affairs. Dangerous, but I'm skeptical.  

It's a deep race.  Churchtown cuts back 1f and is starting off an 80 day layoff, but training sharply at WO since mid June.  Attfield wins 20% of stake races but has only had 2 turf sprints over a rolling year, of which he has yet to win.  5 of 6 Win/Place over Turf, 2 of 2 Win/Place at WO.  

My last serious consideration is Dream Shake, only second turf start, a surface he is a maiden on.  Ran and won a 7f fake dirt OC50K on 2 July.  Fascinating, but I like to see some success first.  

So what am I doing with all this?  A win bet for War Bomber (Ire) as long as I'm >8-1.  My exacta will be Lucky Score wheeled with War Bomber, Dreams of Tomorrow, Churchtown and Dream Shake.  I'm ignoring Bound for Nowhere at my own peril, I just don't like anywhere near 8-5

Have fun friends!

Turk Out

The Nomination Is In: The Belle Mahone $100K at Woodbine

Gamble's Ghost- Photo by Michael Burns

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I woke up yesterday with a terrible headache, the sort of headache I get when a serious change in the weather is upon us.  The headache sapped me of my willingness to work my way through 28 pages of Past Performance for races 6-10 at Kentucky Downs.  I did enjoy the races and I'm disappointed I missed out on such a lovely day of opportunities at the betting window.  September to me, with the buzz of Saratoga and Del Mar behind us, is about some of my lesser played yet favorite tracks:  Kentucky Downs, Presque Isle Downs, Woodbine and PARX. There is a little biy of something interesting to be found in September at each of these tracks leading up to big weekends at Belmont and Santa Anita one month before Breeders' Cup Weekend.  The rhythm of the race calendar is alive in my mind and with the coming Fall comes these tracks, and today I'm playing Woodbine mostly to avoid the rain that will make a mess of many other places.

Today's featured race for blogging purposes is the $100,000 Belle Mahone Stakes, a 1 1/16 Mile fake dirt affair for Fillies and Mares 3 YO and up.

The Morning Line favorite is 7-5 Gamble's Ghost, pictured above.  in my Turk Fair Line, I think his odds are close to 1-1, a 50% chance of winning, a rare value for me to assign but it's hard to argue against last year's winner not repeating.  Let's get after it!




Gamble's Ghost is a beast: 9 wins in 13 Fake Dirt starts, 6 wins in 8 starts at this distance, 9 wins in 13 Woodbine starts, $720,000 in earnings .  Zero wins in six starts away from Woodbine and Zero Wins on Turf and Zero wins on Dirt.  This horse likes the fake dirt surface.  Here she is in the Grade 3 Ontario Matron.




I'm a gambler, and I see a 1-1 horse as having a 50% chance of losing as well as having a 50% chance of winning.  The ONLY reason for me to play this race is the off chance she gets beat.

If you are going to bet the heavy chalk loses, you better have someone who can win.  My choice is Superioritycomplex (Ire), The 4 YO Hard Spun Irish daughter out of Justlookdonttouch (Ire).  

Watch this very professional late turn of foot from her at Arlington over yielding turf in mid August.  She's the five horse  with dark blue silks, about 6 lengths back at top of stretch before drawing off.

  

My Arch Enemy, a 4 YO Arch for conditioner Mark Casse is early speed who should hold the rail most of the way.  6 Show finishes in 12 lifetime starts. 

Giada Vegas returns to action after a layoff since mid February.  Also conditioned by Mark Casse, he's 18% off +180 Day break.  3 of 3 at Woodbine and 3 of 3 at the Distance for the Scat Daddy 5 YO.

I'll be playing the exact and the 20 cent Super based on my bet selections listed above.

Have fun friends!  We'll be back mid week for the last two days of the Kentucky Downs Meet. 

Turk Out!

Post Race Recap with Video of Woodbine Pick 3 Race 3-4-5 30 August 2017

It started with good intentions. A handicapper, time on his hands.  A night time card with >$100,000 stakes.  What could go wrong?

Welcome friends to The Turk.  I'll leave Little Turk out of this tonight as he wasn't dumb enough to bet a Pick 3, win the sequence and find a way to post a negative ROI but that's what I did.

In race 3, I covered two horses after the early scratch of Eminent Force/6.  I thought Melmich would win as the very heavy chalk and he did.

In Race 4, I thought Miss Sea would win as the chalk but I covered Sweater Weather who went to post at $3.30-1 and the second choice among bettors.  Onto the last leg alive.

In Race 5, I covered four (4) Two Year Old's primarily on Trainer/Jock stats.  The heavy chalk won and the $29.30-1 horse I covered, Loopety Loo/9 was Place, 4 lengths back.

Three races, two heavy chalks and a negative ROI.   It was just for fun, I bet the $0.20 version and kept my loss to $2.91.

I'll live to fight again.

Gave a good night friends, Turk Out!

Race 3




Race 4



Race 5

The Nomination Is In: The Woodbine Race 3-4-5 Pick 3

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk mid week edition.  I was traveling quite a bit this week and thought I'd take a shot at mid-week Woodbine as I start playing the track quite regularly leading up to Woodbine Mile Day.    I've always like the way the fake dirt plays fair here and I find the races interesting usually, especially the restricted to Canada or Ontario races.

I'm not going to ramble too much pre-race.  Keep an eye on the toteboard as well as scratches and changes,

Have fun friends!  Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Nassau on Turf at Woodbine

Clement: Photo by Nancy Rokos

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk.  It's nice to break away from the Triple Crown trail to handicap races where my real passion is, turf running.  A route of turf over a beautiful course really stirs the Turk's horse racing imagination.  With all due respect to mega trainers like Pletcher, et al, I most admire  the turf training maestros like a Johnathan Sheppard, John Gosden or Christophe Clement, pictured left.  The term Conditioner seems to have been created for him.

Woodbine's turf course is one of my favorites in North America, just behind Arlington.  Woodbine is far ahead of Arlington in generating stakes races and purses.  While I'm playing Arlington today, for a beautiful early season Saturday, the card should be much better than it is.  How a Saturday card, in what is a short race season at Arlington, cannot contain a single stakes race or have a purse over $25,000, is very concerning to me about the future of that track.

Anyway, that's a subject for someone who knows what they are talking about, a serious journalist or blogger, and not this idiot handicapper.

Let's get it on!

Woodbine Race 8: The Nassau Grade 8, 1 Mile on Turf

	Horse/Post	Turk's Grade
Win	Stellar Path (Fr)/4	A+
Place	Deceptive Vision/9	A
Show	Resistivity/11	A--
Exotic	Overheard/3	B++
Also Ran's	Winning Rhythm/12	B
	Sky Treasure/7	B-
	Strut the Course/1	C++
	Skylander Girl/2	C
	Surtsey/5	C
	Llanarmon/6	C
	Copper Kitten/8	C
	Silent Star/10	C
	Woodbine Race 8: Post Time 4:45 ET	The Nassau G2
	1 Mile on Turf	For F&M, 3 YOs and Up

I'm focused on faster handicapping.  I'm developing a better technique for when I am at the track and making a spot play, looking at Past Performances for the first time seconds after one race ends and with only enough time to quickly review and get to the windows.  I've become to accustomed to sitting at the table in dead silence, with my charts and graphs, and taking tons of time to assemble complex exotic bets.  At the track, I toss all that in the garbage for a few spot plays here and there.

I'm typically not a fan of betting any race I haven't put alot of preparation into, but what the heck, I'm letting my hair down (metaphysically speaking that is!)

Stellar Path and Deceptive Vision were the top horses coming out of my cursory review.  Stellar Path is a versatile 4 YO, 10 of 14 in the money, 7 of 10 in the money at the distance, and coming in off a less than firm turf win.  Deceptive Vision comes in off a win at KEE on the dirt, a switch Pierce wins 50% of the time, albeit on 4 tries.  Husbands up.

A group of four horses made it into my exotic pool.  I say exotic loosely, as I'm looking at Exacta primarily, maybe Tri, maybe not. Resistivity, a Mark Casse trainee, has been training sharply and looks ready to step up in class.  Expect a great price.  Overheard, 10 of 11 in the money on turf and 3 of 3 at WO, has been training up since an early April fourth at KEE.  Winning Rhythm I think would like more distance, has only 1 win in 6 at this distance, none at WO, and is 0 of 3 in 2015.  Sid Attard first time with trainer stats 9% on 22 tries.  Sky Treasure I expect will be on ticket anywhere but first.  Casse's mare spent the Winter at SA.

Simple Exacta: $2 Bet  4, 9 OVER 4,9 3,7,11,12 for $20

Simple Triactor ($0.20 bet available) $2 Bet 4, 9 OVER 4,9,3,7,11,12 OVER 4,9,3,7,11,12 is $80.

I doubt I care that much so we will try to thin that down to something liker this:  $2 Bet 4,9 over 4,9 11,3,12 over 9,11,3,12,7 for $58.

Have fun friends!

Turk Out

The Nomination Is In: The Queen's Plate $1,000,000 at Woodbine

Attfield looking for 9th Win: Globe and Mail

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, handicapping today for the Thorofan Handicappers Corner.

The Queen's Plate, a restricted classic distance race run over poly, has been a tough race for me to handicap over the years.  The contenders often  have varied and unimpressive past performances, especially when compared to their three year old contemporaries in the United States.  Once you embrace Woodbine as a track to play you'll learn its poly places pretty fair, that in general turf like pace is the norm, and that it's racing, just a bit different, and with just a bit different paradigm.  The trainers are good, the locals are good, there is a home field advantage and Yanks just don't show up and win easily. Fillies win, maidens win, it's a gosh darn free for all!  So what is a handicapper to do? The same thing he always does:  be consistent in your approach.  What that means for the Turk is a complete analysis of the Past Performances, video analysis where practical, an open mind, and bet construction that comes only after a base handicap, regardless of odds or tote board action specifically, is created.

Anyway, let's jump into this and see what we have to work with!




I print my DRF Formulator PP's (now that they print again- don't get me started on that debacle DRF!) without Morning Line odds.  In my opinion, morning lines are another handicappers bias and bias is something I try to avoid.  I also try to avoid reading articles pre race, mainstream media or other bloggers, about a certain horse, owner, or any sort of human interest tied to the horse. Again, that creates bias.  As a racing fan, I get into all that stuff, just after I've ponied up to the betting window.  I do however like to print the DRF Closer Look and DRF's Jennifer Morrison is one of the best.  Her opinions provide just enough of a balance to my own opinions and after doing this a long while, I like the collaboration, albeit loose collaboration.

We Miss Artie seems like an overwhelming favorite and I would suspect he will be bet down top even money or lower. :26 2/5ths in the last 1/4 mile of the Kentucky Derby, across a surface he didn't much like, winner of the Spiral and handily in the Plate Trial on 15 June.  Trainer Pletcher, with Castellano up, have a three for three poly winner and Pletcher won the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at KEE.  Pletcher won the Queen's Plate in 1998.  Were not talking unbeatable but very solid.

I like Asserting Bear and the filly Lexie Lou as possible upset candidates.  Asserting Bear should like the extra distance, is very game, and has been training sharply.  Trainer Baker places Sutherland-Kruse up. Only one win in 5 poly tries.  Lexie Lou should also attract betting dollars.  Winner of Woodbine Oaks on 15 June, she sports the best Beyer on fake dirt of all starters and is 8 of 11 in the money at Woodbine lifetime.  Husbands, Up and Trainer Casse are 27% together at WO in 179 tried over past year.

My next group of four could jump into Place, but I'm expecting Show, fourth or fifth: Matador, Casse's second of three starters, with Leparoux up, came off the road and posted a $75K OC win going away at 8.5 panels on 28 June.  A Malibu Moon colt.

Lions Bay, sent to the gate by young Jamie Attard, is really stepping up in class, but he should like the distance.  Tower of Texas is Trainer Roger Attfield's lone entrant as he attempts to win this race for the ninth time.  1 win in 8 Poly starts. 1 win in 7 WO starts. He has a perfect running style and I could easily make a case for a Win spot.  Consider playing him for a good price.  John Velazquez is up today.

Ami's Holiday is my cut off line.  A good effort in G3 Lexington at KEE  and  a G3 winner across this track.  Jock/Trainer combo of Contreras/Carroll won in 2011 with Inglorious and Carroll has won this twice. 

Majestic Sunrise and Coltimus Prime are my only two "non tosses":  Casse's third starter Majestic Sunrise ran well in the Plate Trial; Coltimus Prime ran well in the Blue Grass Stakes but comes in off a slow N2L Allowance win at WO at 1 1/8 Miles on June 8.

I'm tossing at my own peril Niigon Express and Man O' Bear.  Either could have been in my Exotic Group.  I'm tossing without fanfare Athenian Guard, Cap in Hand, Heart to Heart and One Destiny (entered 5 July as well).

There is a mandatory payout Super High Five with 20 cent options.  Better than a lottery ticket and I'll take an educated bet over an idiotic lottery ticket any day.

What shall The Turk do?  After pondering a bit I wasn't able to assemble a Super High Five ticket that created an investment option that felt good in my gut.  I have however built a Superfecta option I'll consider:

$0.20 Superfecta:  4-6-12-14 OVER 4-6-12-14 OVER 4-8-10-12-14-15 OVER 4-8-10-12-14-15 =$60  Will it pay enough to cover the bet?  I have to think on that awhile.  Speculative investments are just that, and past performance is no promise of future outcomes. Bet responsibly or just use monopoly money and enjoy the racing.  It should be a good card.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Nearctic Grade 1 at Woodbine

The Turk has had a very busy past month or so: work, school, family, everything was stacked against me handicapping the ponies, but alas I've handicapped the card at Woodbine today and later tonight I begin Breeders' Cup preparations.

I believe in balance in life.  When I'm rushed in life, I shed all the things that aren't critical to me, like handicapping and blogging.  If my mind isn't clear and free to focus purely on handicapping, then I just wait until it is.  That's a big difference from when I was younger and I would cut corners and handicap quickly through the card so I could get some action in.  I practice patience now and it works for me.





I'm going to leave my base handicap now to speak for itself.  I'll be back soon to celebrate the fifth anniversary of this blog and take a look at the Breeders' Cup Classic contenders.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Sky Classic Grade 2 at Woodbine

Sky Classic was the 2 YO Horse of the Year in Canada and later in his career he won an Eclipse Award in the United States as the Best Turf Male.  Today's race is a worthy contest in his name, as the top five in my base handicap are all of exceptional class and quality. 

The race is in about an hour, so I won't prattle too much about layers, and base handicaps and blah , blah blah, lets just get after it!

Perfect Timber will need to run the race of his four year old life today, but the son of Perfect Soul (Ire), owned by the exceptional smart Charles Fipke has been training sharply since a career best in Place to Forte Dei Marmi (GB) in a 12 panel G3 at WO on yielding turf in early July. Forte Dei Marmi (GB) has also been training exceptionally well, and both are trained by Roger Attfield.  He's got Da Silva up here so the shrewd Attfield must feel strongly that the results will be the same, but we'll see. 

Hampstead Heath and Grand Arch are both trained by Brian Lynch.  Grand Arch will most likely strike the front and i predict the 4 YO gelding will be going backwards at the end. 

Irish Mission is the one that can rain on the parade;  Mark Frostad's filly from Giant Causeway must prove she can step up in class as well as beat the boys.  A minor prize seems possible. 

Hotep is a shadow of himself at but still could surprise. 





20 cent Triactors  and 20 cent Superfectas are on the menu.  I'm leaning towards a 5 horse box Super and a 4 Horse Box Tri. 

Have fun Friends,  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 3 Hendrie at Woodbine and Grade 2 Californian at Hollywood Park

Blueskiesandrainbows

The Turk was looking for interesting races that he could bet and win today. It seems like an obvious statement, but many horse players want to play a specific track regardless of the ticket or the conditions before them. I say, tilt the field in a way that works for you.

I am avoiding the New York State bred card at Belmont like the plague because the racing to me just isn't that compelling, and while as a fan I'm interested in a couple of the races at Penn, it's a track I seldom handicap and I don't plan to start, so I'll pass. I settled on two polytracks, but two tracks I have a good record of handicapping well. I guess the point I am trying to make is to look for betting opportunities where the odds are a bit tilted in your favor; just because you are at the track doesn't mean you have to bet those races. I am good with turf races between 8 and 10 furlongs but I know I'm not very good with 12 furlong races, so I skip those. I skip muddy and sloppy tracks when possible, I skip races moved off turf, I skip 2 YO races and seldom do I handicap 3 YO filly races. Know thy self and know which situations produce your worst results and avoid those.

Let's get it on!



The Hendrie at Woodbine is a very interesting race as most of the field have run quite a bit over that track and most have had success. Any of four gals has a chance to win and my tepid chalk is Little River, with Da Silva up. The four year old Exchange Rate daughter raced well at KEE and then came home to go win at WO in early May. Trainer Cox and Da Silva win 40% of the time together in 15 tries. 4 fake dirt tries have all ended in the money.

Acting Naughty from post 1 won the Grade 3 Whimsical in late April at WO by a head over Starship Universe and Katie Get Excited. 6 wins in 13 fake dirt tries and 13 of 16 in the money on WO fake dirt.

Trainer Sid Attard brings Heavenly Pride here off a layoff since September. The 5 YO Sky Mesa Mare has been training steady since April and should offer a nice price.

Trainer Mark Casse goes one step further, bringing Delightful Mary in off a layoff since March 2012. The 5 YO Florida bred is training very sharply and has three wins in 4 starts at WO.

Starship Universe and Katie Get Excited are in the mix for the exotics while I tossed Man Stuff and Actionontwo from any prizes. 20 cent Superfecta and 20 cent Triactors are on the menu and I'll place one of each.

At Hollywood, the Grade 2 Californian at 1 1/8 miles over fake dirt is a pretty competitive as well. I'm also present a tepid chalk here as well, Blueskiesandrainbows, pictured above. Hollendorfer and Bejarano are 31% together in 48 tries at HP and 32% together over running year in 123 tries. That's money. Weakened at 1 1/16 last time out.

Liaison, 6th in the Kentucky Derby and this year's Santa Mile winnerwon the Grade 3 Leyroy that Blueskiesandrainbows faded in. Kettle Corn was there too. Hmmm......



Liaison will be bet hard: 6 of 6 in the money on fake dirt, 5 of 5 in the money Hollywood, but no wins in 3 starts at the distance.

Kettle Corn is impressive as well: 12 of 13 in the money on fake dirt and 7 of 7 in the money at Hollywood Park. 7 wins in 21 starts lifetime for the 6 YO Candy Ride (Arg) trained by Sadler with Espinoza up.

The betting here for me is against Clubhouse Ride.  5 straight Place finishes and only 3 wins in 27 tries.  I respect the 5 YO, but not enough to back the win in the Trifecta, only in the Super. 

Oilisblackgold, Holladay Road and Batti Man (Arg) are too sharp to not consider for a minor place on the ticket, so no tosses in this one. 10 Cent Super and $1 Trifecta options are available and I'm going to try one of each.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Nijinsky Grade 2, Post Race Day Results for the Osunitas Purse at Del Mar and a SAVE FORT ERIE Plea

Far be it for me, The Ol' Turk, to start a handicapping blog by making an impassioned plea, but a horseplayer has to do what a horse player has to do. Beautiful Fort Erie, which I believe is one of the five oldest race tracks in North America, is scheduled to be closed because of government shortsightedness (Ok more complicated then that but that's the Readers Digest version). Horse players from all over North America can not sit idly by while race tracks are allowed to be closed. I urge all of you to send letters and emails, like the good people of Fort Erie are doing to the Ontario Premier, Dalton McGuinty; You can follow this link for the best way to contact him.

We cannot stand idly by when tracks start to close. There will be a domino effect that will spill over and just because you don't think that Fort Erie or some other track isn't important as long as you have your precious Del Mar or Saratoga, think again.

OK, thank you for listening and I hope I stir some of my degenerate gambling base to action.

The Nijinsky could have been a great race with 2 or 3 more combatants. This is an impressive 6 horse field with 5 legitimate contenders. I'm going to take a run at a exactor based on my base handicap below.



Imagining looks like a strong Phipps Stable runner and I regret not being able to make the drive up to Woodbine today just to see the four year old sonm of Giant's Causeway. Cutting back in distance, he'll be strong to beat.

Pender Harbor, Hollinger and Riding the River will have something to say about that.

As far as Del Mar yesterday, flip Imperialistic Diva (Ire) and Broken Dreams and I have that race dead cold. Such is life as a horse bettor. I find its best to study the results and move on. I've noted how well Byrony (Ire) closed with a late turn of foot and how Halo Dolly tracked along. I continue to advocate not being concerned about contributing to the tracks handle in the first few days of the meet; Watch the races and read the race charts before jumping in with real cash wagers.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: November 12, 2011; The Late Pick Three at Churchill Downs including The Mrs. Revere Grade 2

This picture sums up my 2010-2011 Breeders' Cup experience at Churchill Downs over the past two years; it blew by. It really is hard for me to believe that two of these events have come and gone and I'm loathe to compare the two years because that's not really fair with the solar eclipse of a mare, Zenyatta, creating such a huge buzz in the grandstands last year. On Friday the Turk Clan parked in the prepaid lot right next to Roy and Gretchen Jackson, the owners of Barbaro. I asked Mrs. Jackson if it was difficult for her to come back to Churchill Downs and she answered my awkward question kindly and said it was a place of great memories for her. Thank you Mrs. Jackson for being so forthright with me.

I had a decent two days of gambling, more or less break even. My biggest thrill was Amazombie winning the Breeders' Cup Sprint and my lowest low was being "that guy" loudly telling everyone that Court Vision should have been retired only to watch him win the Mile. I had my money on Turallure and I have a real soft spot for the Woodbine Mile and I should have bet the Woodbine Mile Exacta as that paid a sick about of mooola. Long Live Goldikova, she was a real special treat, and her connections were very sporting with the way she was campaigned, a real lesson to some of our American runners.

I swung for the fences with the Super Hi Five on the Breeders' Cup Classic. If I had won, you'd know about it by now. I had tossed Ruler on Ice but I had the other four. We'll revisit that bet more times in my life. I had Game On Dude to win and really thought I had a sleeper after I jumped off Flat Out. I don't know if there was any more Chantal could have milked out of him, but the way Drosselmeyer flew up the outside, I just don't think she saw him or there was no response. Either way, I enjoyed myself and i enjoyed the weekend for what it was: Multiple Grade 1 winning horses with long odds on very good animals in every race.

The Turk is never going to be confused as being gregarious in my social life. I fake it well in the business world but I'm a pretty reserved fella. I loved walking through the paddock, seeing the excitement, feeling the vibe of people digging horse racing (and vodka). I woke up early on Saturday morning and channeled some positive energy, driving to Mt. Washington before winding my way back to Churchill Downs to watch the horses from the fence line on Longfield Avenue graze and be happy.

The glamour of racing cards with multiple graded stakes one after another is just about over the calendar year. I like to handicap in November and December to sharpen up and look for 3 year olds who were lost in the shuffle and will be staying in training for 2012. I just don't give a hoot about 2 year olds and I never will- I'll get excited about them when the long Derby Trail begins again. I'll be handicapping Churchill until after the Clark and then I'll bounce over to Hollywood park, where I have had some really big December's in the past few years.

I've got a Pick Three at Churchill Downs that I've been noodling over which includes the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere. Let's get after it!



I really like Hungry Island's 2011 body of work but the Garden City, while looking like an off the board effort deserves a look;



She came out of traffic in a perfect striking position but it was Winter Memories day. I liked the rally. That said, I'm backing Marketing Mix to win.

Marketing Mix is a Medaglia d'Oro filly out of Instant Thought (Kris S.) The Ontario bred will have grass master Leparoux up for trainer Tom Proctor, who's a 20% turf winner. A solid 2011 Woodbine campaign, a win in an always competitive Wonder Where, a nice Pucker Up G3 at Arlington and a Place to Together in the QE2 Cup G1 at Keeneland. Training sharply and running well, a deadly combination.

Bizzy Caroline breaks from the two post for trainer McPeek with M. Cruz up. A dreadful Del Mar Oaks G1 was followed up by a Place in the G3 Valley View at Keeneland. A bullet on the poly track there last week. 5 of 8 in the money lifetime over turf, 2 wins in 2 starts on CD turf, the Afleet Alex daughter looks like a handful.

Smart Sting is a Smart Strike/Perfect Sting joint, trained by Roger Attfield. I was ecstatic to see Mr. Attfield win his first Breeders' Cup race (could that possibly be i thought, but yes it was) with Perfect Shirl in the Filly and Mare Turf. Wow! Johnny V is up. 5 of 6 in the money in 2011 with 2 turf wins, but winless at the distance and winless in one effort at Churchill. Comes off a 8.5 furlong fake dirt G3 win and a decent Virginia Oaks G3 effort two back.

Sea Level Drive is easy to overlook but I'm intrigued. An N1X winner on poly at Arlington, she ends up in Leigh Bently's barn, runs a well beaten Place to Marketing Mix in the Pucker Up G3 at 25.5-1 odds and follow that up as the 1.3-1 chalk in an N2X win at 8.5 furlongs on the fake stuff at KEE. This Malibu Moon should like the turf here and Trainer Arnold has her back but there is some baggage there: Arnold is a 3% winner on Fake Dirt to Turf crossovers and a 7% stakes race winner.

Hungry Island, Louakhova and New Normal round out my exotic covers. Louakhova has never finished off the board in 7 starts and won in her North American debut at 1 mile on yielding turf in October. I may be foolish not covering her in the P3 but you can't cover everyone friends!

The New Normal has been training well at Woodbine for Trainer Frostad. Friends, if you aren't paying attention to the good horsemanship north of the American border, pay more attention, especially to Woodbine. The Canadians love bringing good horses south in the Winter. A G3 winner as a two year old, she's been training well but this is first race off a long layoff, a break Frostad wins 15% of the time off of.

I'm going to assemble a Superfecta for the Mrs. Revere and I will most likely follow my alternative bet selection for the P3, perhaps stretching out to one more horse in the Mrs. Revere, Louakhova and downplaying Smart Sting. Hmmmmm. Things to think about minutes before the gate throws open. By doing your handicapping well in advance, I can focus on bet construction, allowing the tote board to help me make some value judgements.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 29, 2011; The Connaught Cup Grade II on turf at Woodbine

The weather up in the Turk's neck of the woods has been rainy, with rain and a bit more rain. We aren't complaining because we haven't had to suffer through the devastation of tornado's like we have seen in the Midwest, but we have had to sacrifice much of The Little Turk's May soccer schedule and the early season turf racing at Woodbine.

Turf racing in the north is a cherished commodity, a sign that its warm enough to actually grow grass. Today's 77th edition of the Connaught Cup is one of those little signals to us northern folk that its OK to go outside without a layer of fleece on. It also gives us an opportunity to remember Prince Arthur, The Duke of Connaught and the Governor General of Canada during the first Great War, something my core audience of degenerate, hard core gambling types like to do.

I'm not sure if its a sign of a mini resurgence in horse racing or not, but The Turk and Little Turk's website traffic has blown up this month, setting an all-time high mark for visitors. Thanks for all my friends and readers who humor the Ol' Turk by dropping by.

I'm excited to again say The Turk Clan will be making our way to Churchill Downs later this year for the Breeders' Cup, attending with our dear friends, Cathy the Canadian Turk and her family. More on that when it gets closer, I need to remember that is a time of the year when grass doesn't grow at my house or Woodbine, a thought to depressing to dwell on.

Let's get after this!

Woodbine Race 8: The Connaught Cup Grade II on Turf



My initial thought after building my base handicap was that this race was too chalky to consider. I think an awful lot of Grand Adventure, and I really see this as his race to lose. The 5 YO son of Grand Slam, trained by Frostad, with Husbands up, is a classy serious runner with 5 turf wins in 15 starts, 2 of 2 at this distance and 5 of 10 on Woodbine grass. That doesn't mean he's unbeatable, in fact its been 11 months since he did win. That said, I like the 5 1/2 furlong soft turf effort he had at Keeneland in April and I'm going to back him as a single instead of betting against him.

The only way I can back the chalk as a single and make this interesting is to find some real value below him. Hailstone is a big leap of faith; Also running after trying Keeneland turf, he cuts back from a mile and sixteenth for trainer Casse.

Macias was a well thought after Bob Baffert runner as a two and three year old before being vanned offat Delmar last August. He switched to Asmussen's barn and the Zayat runner had a nice poly effort in Keeneland in late April. Plenty good for the top four!

Hollinger has been training very sharply at Woodbine and makes his second start off a greater than 180 day layoff for Roger Attfield. I'm looking for a minor prize.

I'm betting against a few runners and need them to lose to make this gambling exercise well played. Artic Fern is lightly raced and tries turf for the first time. The gelding has shown flashes of being special, I'm hoping not today. I'm a Signature Red fan and I expect he's the one that will trip me up a bit. I'll most likely cover him and cut someone else back. That other is Woodbourne, who I have higher right now but am rethinking and most likely will slide down below Signature Red.

The beauty of handicapping in advance is giving yourself time to reshape and rethink a bit just before heading to the window. It's not easy but try to do your handicapping before you go to the track and face the distractions that present themselves.


Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: April 2, 2011: Woodbine Opening Day Pick Three including the Debut Stakes

The natural inclination of most race fans in the United States is towards the Triple Crown series, especially the Kentucky Derby. I can't say I'm wildly excited about the Kentucky Derby right now. I will be as it gets closer, but the way some of the horses have been prepped, or lack of prep with racing, it's just not that fun. There are exceptions: It's been fun watching The Factor and Premier Pegasus, and Soldat gave me a thrill, but The Timely Writer left me cold, no matter how good Uncle Mo may be.

What happened to the ideal of sportsman and women, campaigning their horses, winning some, losing some, but campaigning? Last weekend's races in Dubai, while maybe not a great example because of the purse sizes, is a race and a venue for sportsmen to bring their best; If it doesn't go well the horse can be set back months in training and conditioning, but to win there, the prestige and money, that's what drives people. I'm not sure I can describe any better the feeling of coldness that I have when a horse wins a grade I, gets enough earnings, and then is left on the shelf with a plan of two preps and the Derby. I hate it. Did I mention I hate it? If I was in charge I'd mandate not only graded earnings but I would put a subtractor on the earnings if they were all achieved in one or two races, and I'd discount two year old earnings at 60 cents on the dollar to three year old earnings.

Alas, I'm not in charge, I'm just a fan, and God knows, a fans voice ain't worth much nor will I lament that, as a horse player has to retain a certain amount of dignity. I'm a shelp, and I'll watch the Derby and I'll root for a Triple Crown Winner, and if Uncle Mo wins, every trainer for years will duplicate the approach and the super trainer will feel vindicated, people who have an opinion like me will be mocked and marginalized. Self fulfilling prophecy? Perhaps? Perhaps it's just the fact that my Lenten sacrifice of Bourbon and Cigars is making me crotchety?

Today is opening day at Woodbine, a track that for whatever weird double standard I don't get angry and emotional about the fake dirt like I did at Santa Anita. I don't hold it against Arlington but I've lost interest in Keeneland. More evidence I'm a loon I suppose.

Let's get after it!

Woodbine Race 6-7-8: First Post for the Pick Three 3:28 ET



What I like about Woodbine early season racing is the odd mix of class drops, layoffs, works, preps, even jocks who haven't been up in some time. It's sorta a free for all and you just have to wade in. My picks seem like they will end up pretty chalky, so the bets will be small. Today isn't so much about today, I'm looking for form to see who I'm watching when they run back in several weeks.

In the Debut Stakes, I'm backing Don's Folly who was beaten by a length in this affair last year. A six year old horse, the only non gelding in the field. Training very sharply, especially a 4f handride in :47 and 1/5 at WO last week. The pick!

Drunken Love and Paso Doble will be in the mix; Drunken Love, with Husbands up for Trainer Michael Pino, ran a 5f prep on the turf at GP in late January. Classy and may be ready to challenge for the win. Paso Doble needs no introduction to fans of Woodbine. 2 wins in last 19 starts but 11 of 20 in the money, this 5 year old is now trained by Mark Casse and has been training well but draws the rail in this short 5 panel run. Daniel Be Good and The Boy's Ring round out the superfecta I'm toying with.

Have fun with whatever you are playing today; The Florida Derby looms on Sunday and I'll be back later to take a look and get sucked back into Derby preps.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day October 16, 2010: The Woodbine Late Pick Four Canadian International Day

The Turk and his sidekick, The Little Turk, have almost 15,000 reasons to smile after today's Late Pick 4 at Woodbine today. I'll be celebrating with a carmel colored cashmere top coat from Jos. A Bank and the Little Turk gets a new Itunes gift card. Mama Turk, well she gets anything she wants.

The Turk preaches modesty, as this game humbles even the best of handicappers regularly, and there is a big difference between celebrating and bragging. I hope this blog entry, while gleaming of celebration, is not interpreted as bragging. So much went right, so much else could have happened, and the results are truly a reflection of an approach I've been developing for nearly twenty years of handicapping. Let's get after it friends!

It's amazing how slowly I complete a post race analysis when I lose compared to when I win, but the one thing I always do is break down my betting effort, good, bad, and often ugly. As I was just saying two weeks ago after another good effort, I prepare my DRF Formulator PP's devoid of morning lines and I eschew pre race hype. Why? It influences me, and with races that are heavy with European runners, that sort of influence really throws me off. After I handicapped I went back and looked at the Morning Lines just to see how we lined up and I wasn't surprised I had a bit of a contrarian view overall. When you handicap and make your picks public, even with a very lightly read blog like this one, you never really want to be embarrassed. The temptation is to follow conventional wisdom and fall in line with what the talking heads are predicting. You've got to learn to not worry about what others think and you have to do your own thinking. No shortcuts.

Woodbine Race 8-9-10-11 Pick Four



The post race analysis told me I was really dialed in today, so much so I think I left behind an equal amount of money that I won still on the table. I try to avoid that type of thinking, that concept of what I woulda-shoulda-coulda did.

In Race 8, The Nearctic, I backed tepidly Amico Fritz (Ger) to win. He had a hard time crossing the Maginot Line in this one, but I had Grand Adventure and Fatal Bullet straight in the Place and Show spots and I had Field Commission and Serious Attitude(Ire) in the Triactor box to take $3,366.10 on a $48 box. A great way to start the day. As I said pre race as well, I was taking four horses in the Pick 4 no matter what and I needed my fourth.

In Race 9, The E.P. Taylor, I pretty much had the top six exact in what was a pretty straight forward affair. I correctly downgraded a horse I am partial too, Mekong Melody (Ire) and placed Miss Keller (Ire) properly above Shalanaya (Ire) and Contredanse(Ire), and had Reggane (GB) fourth while the betting public tabbed him for 6th. The same $48 dollar boxed Triactor this time grossed $526.50 for me. Still alive in the Pick 4 after two.

Race 10, The Canadian International, I had a darn fine handicap with the exception of Mores Wells (GB) flying into the blanket finish. That's racing, and I was correct in downgrading Marsh Side, Simmard, and Fifty Proof, all fine horses, from the top 4. Alive after three after including the Joshua Tree (Ire), the bettors third choice.

Race 11 was a $12,500 maiden claimer that made my head hurt handicapping, but no sense in spending $144 dollars on a Pick 4 bet just to screw up the maiden claimer. I identified three horses, with Disclosure winning as the bettor's second choice.

As I've been trying to illustrate pre race, there are many different ways to approach these multi race bets, with my method being to identify a bet risk I'm willing to take and cut it off there. My Facebook friends know I've been noddling on these races since Thursday morning and I had a $300 budget for the weekend. I built a 4 X 4 X 3 X 3 selection for the Pick Four and could have used almost my entire budget on a $2 bet but I instead placed it for $1. At $144 I was quite pleased to pocket $11,099.55 and I'm doing my best to avoid thinking about what I had planned to be a $2 bet. By staying at $144 I had enough room to place boxed Triactor Bets on the three main races, nearly placing Super bets that would have paid a bundle, but if I'm anything friends, I'm a very disciplined bettor.

Handicapping is an odd mixture of math, pattern prediction, art and feel. I reject the notion that the results are best predicted by computers analyzing pace and heavily modified speed figures. A red gel pen, DRF Past Performances with workouts embedded, fractional times, jockey and trainer stats, and some limited analysis is all I really need, no pre race hype and most definitely no morning lines, track handicappers, celebrity handicappers, bloggers, anyone. I love to read all of that, but after I've committed. A new tool I'm really utilizing is a Ipad App from Equibase that allows me to quickly get information and view video of specific races. Just incredible what information we have available to us now, it's important to keep it all in perspective that in these horse events, the same things happen over and over and over again.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: October 16, 2010; The Woodbine Late Pick Four on Canadian International Day

In horse racing we remember tradition. While we may have inserted corporate names in front of our famous race names, we have, for the most part, resisted forgetting the past. E.P. Taylor is a man who should never be forgotten, and his influence in North American racing is almost impossible to underestimate. His stallion, Northern Dancer, has left a legacy of influence not only in North America but also Europe, as the Sire of Great Sires and we remember him constantly at this blog through our respect for Storm Cat, Deputy Minister, El Prado, and Danehill.

The four race series I've selected today are not for the faint of heart but that's why we call this gambling. Let's get after it!

Woodbine Race 8-11


When you handicap turf racing at the highest level in North America, you have more homework to do than usual. You will be faced with horses who have never raced in North America, placed on drugs that help with bleeding but also give a good boost to performance, with past performances that deny you the type of information you are use to having, and then the people factors: Why did the connections send this horse? What are they thinking? Is he better than it shows on paper? Did he race better left handed or right handed? Was there a significant performance difference over different turf conditions? You really need to watch the big Grade I races and get a feel for how these races are contested. The Turk loves dirt and embraces it as the surface of American horse racing tradition. That said, I love the grass and the challenge of handicapping these races, with big fields, lumbering fractional times and smoking hot final 1/8 miles.

As always, start your homework with track conditions and scratches/changes. With turf, it's often the weather over the past several days you have to consider, so hunt for the best information you can find.

Race 8 is the Nearctic, 6 furlongs on the turf and returns last year winner, Field Commission. Winless in six starts in 2010 and he adds blinkers today. The Turk's very tepid chalk is Amico Fritz (Ger). With Mike Smith, up, the Grade II winner to me represents good value and a legitimate shot. Serious Attitude is a 4 YO filly with Gomez up and taking lasix for the first time should be even longer and a little less live, but still intriguing. Fatal Bullet and Grand Adventure will give honest efforts and Bridgetown will attract bettors interests but I'm looking elsewhere.

This is a pretty solid field of runners and I will back four in this race and hope to be alive coming out of this first race when I'm done. Dubious, but that's the plan!

Race 9 is the E.P. Taylor, a 1 1/4 mile turf affair with 10 starters that also returns last year's winner at 44-1, Lahaleeb (Ire). Two stronger home track runners are here from the Roger Attfield stable, Mekong Melody (Ire) and Miss Keller (Ire). They are faced with a very strong contingent of European runners led by Shalanya (Ire), Reggane (GB) and Contredanse (Ire) . I'm backing Miss Keller, the winner of the Grade II Canadian at 1 1/8 miles over a good Woodbine turf track one month ago. Attfield is clipping along at 29% winners of Won Last Start runners and he has Castellano up. Arkarlina (Fr) is a Grade III winner who may be peaking.

In the big event, the Grade I Canadian International, I'm expecting the bettors chalk, Redwood (GB) will continue to impress. Winner of the Grade I Northern Dancer on firm turf at 1 1/2 miles here one month earlier, if he keeps his form he'll need it as he's facing a more impressive group here. He'll be pressed by Grade I winning Chinchon (Ire), who shocked me with his very impressive turn of foot over firm Monmouth turf in the Grade I United Nations. A very impressive "Zenyatta like" swing wide to the outside from dead last at the top of the stretch and just bury everyone. He's bouncing back off a dull race in France on soft going in September. Al Khali and Marsh Side are both honest horses who will run solid but I expect them to be near the bottom or off any tickets. Joshua Tree (Ire) is slightly intriguing and you have to wonder why he's here and what he's capable of and the Attfield runner, Simmard is running his second off a longer than 180 day layoff and looked sharp coming back against Al Khali and Winchester at 1 3/8 on firm Belmont turf.

The Pick Four ends for me with a $12,500 Maiden Claimer. The 13 and 14 horses, Hazards of Love and Disclosure with Da Silva and Husbands up, offer a chance to take chalk and keep the Pick Four bet size a bit smaller, and the 9, Danish Spirit, represents some good value.

Tough races for sure. Build your own handicaps, read drivel like this only after you make your own tickets up, and above all else, have fun handiguessing the best sport on earth. Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: September 19, 2010; The Woodbine Mile and Late Pick Three including the Northern Dancer

The Turk has been a big fan of the Woodbine Mile since its inception. The race, run over the The outermost E. P. Taylor turf course is 1 1/2 miles long with a chute allowing races of 1 1/8 miles to be run around one turn. The Taylor turf course and the main dirt course at Belmont are the only mile-and-a-half layouts in North American thoroughbred racing. You need to have a basic understanding of the courses as in many locations a second turn would have been required and that changes the dynamics. In this internet thingy day and age this information is a search browser trip away. Woodbine is the Turk's second favorite turf course in North America, and just like my favorite, Arlington, it's saddled with fake dirt for the main track, a turn off that I struggle to get by. No matter, today is one of the great days at Woodbine, and the Mile and The Northern Dancer, both Grade I's, are premier events. The fields are strong and the handicapping was really difficult, so let's just throw it out on the table and see what we got!

Woodbine Race Track Races 8-9-10; The Late Pick Three with the Grade I Northern Dancer and the Grade I Woodbine Mile, post time of Race 8 is 4:34 ET.


As always, check for scratches/changes, weather (and go back a few days for turf events) and monitor the tote board as the day goes on.

The Pick Three kicks off at 4:34 ET with the Northern Dancer. Marshside was entered all over the place this summer before finally shipping into Woodbine to take the Grade II Sky Classic. It was masterful work inside the conditions book by Trainer Drysdale. I like him here as well but he won't be without strong challengers and this is a good race to look for value. I'll be taking my base handicap and looking at the tote board before post. If I'm backing a horse second or third who is the third-fifth favorite with the bettors and the horse is > 6-1, I'm looking for a win bet to be defensive with. I like Memorial Maniac, a five time loser at this distance to be a real value play. Spice Route is very strong and I can never tell what to make of Expansion, with a wild card being Redwood (GB) who seems to run better RH than LH.

I'm going to keep the risk low on the Pick Three. I'll most likely single or provide just a second cover with value in the Northern Dancer.

The Allowance Race contains an interesting collection of even horses and I'll cover as many as four here, Thunderball, Lady's First Cat, Perfect Loch, and a value pick in his second career start, Summanus, son of Thunder Gulch who will have to shock while adding more distance. There will be some safe value mixed in as well with Casual Dude, Smart Sky, Shellback and Spirit Flying all very capable. Gambling ain't always going to be easy and often you will be perplexed: Build your handicap and live with it, the post race analysis is the tool you use to make adjustments in future base handicaps.

For the main event, the picture for this handicapper is no cleaner. I'm backing Famous Name for no reason other than I had to many nicks against the other runners and perhaps my lack of knowledge with him gave him an unfair advantage. It's quite possible. I think the Usual Q.T. is a nifty horse for Trainer Cassidy, winning 8 of 16 career starts including some of the biggest California turf events and he's 5 of 5 at the distance. No rational reason to downgrade him except I'm not sure he'll love the course and that's what I'm banking on. That said, Grand Adventure and Smokey Fire will fire well on this course and Victor's Cry seems fresh and primed. Trainer Goldberg, a 26% winner, brings in Straight Story with Maragh up, and is more than capable of hitting the board.

As a handicapper, I like to be tested with big, competitive fields. As a gambler, I prefer to pick softer targets, and as a blogger I'm just going to do my best with the marks that I'm interested in. Have fun with it. I'll be betting safely within the races, hunting for value, while I'll most likely keep the pick three to $2 2 picks X 4 picks X 2 Picks $32. I'd actually like to go a bit lower.

Have Fun, Turk out!