Anatomy of a Bet: The H. Allen Jerkens at Saratoga

Promises Fulfilled: Photo Horse Racing Nation @HR_Nation

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, Post Race Edition.

As I've been telling my readers, I'm a judicious bettor.  I'm a prolific handicapper, but the compulsion to bet doesn't exist in me.  I handicapped Races 6-12 at Saratoga today and only played a Pick 3 and one vertical bet, The H. Allen Jerkens.

I spent some pretty solid time analyzing this race, especially a breakdown of video on all the contenders and some of the late speed.  You'll find that blog post here.  

I swung for the fences on my primary bet.  In a rare WIN-PLACE bet I wagered $10 for $20 total on the turf to dirt switchover for Team Zayat/Pletcher and J. Velazquez, Gidu (Ire).  A $2 Win bet would have paid $21.60 and my $10 Win Bet would have paid $108.  I liked the pre race work on the dirt, especially the 4F 1st of 60 :47 3/5ths.  I don't mind taking a swing like that and missing.  I only need to hit one out of 5 to break even.

My defensive position was an Exacta.  I had determined to single the likely winner, Promises Fulfilled.  I really believed Engage or Firenze Fire would finish in Place and the bet would pay little.  I noted the Will Pays (on $2 Bet) just before Post Time:

#1 Promised Fulfilled with

• #2 Telekinesis    $48
• #3 Engage   $20
• #5 Seven Trumpets $70
• #6 Gidu (Ire) $74
• #7 Still Having Fun  $42
• #8  Firenze Fire $16

#4 Gemeaminit and #9 Funny Duck I tossed and  didn't even consider them.  

With the likely winning bet paying between $16 and $20 I limited my defensive bet to $8.

$2 Exacta #1 OVER 2,5,6,7 for $8  excluding #3 Engage and #8 Firenze Fire.  I wanted value in this defensive bet as I was wagering $28 total dollars and wanted to at least cover the risky Win Place Bet on Gidu (Ire).  I could have wagered $12 and included Engage and Firenze Fire but I just don't think that's smart money management (although I'm guilty of it at times)

I said Pre Race that Seven Trumpets had a solid 109 Late Pace Timeform and would be moving forward at the end.  I also showed some nice racing by Seven Trumpets late in the Dwyer, highlighting the exceptionally savvy riding of Robbie Albarado.  It was that work that paid off, putting the 32-1 win odds shot in the place spot and winning $82 on an $8 ticket.  

You can find the full DRF Race Chart at this link.

I've said it for years and I'll continue to say it:  You don't need to bet every race.  Do your homework, bet when you feel like you have a knowledge edge.

Thanks for reading.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The H. Allen Jerkens G1 at Saratoga

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  Don't bother coming to look for me today in the clubhouse, I won't be there.  I'm a bit under the weather and had to pass on the 300 mile drive from Buffalo to Saratoga.  I'll have to watch and play from home.  Feel free to go sit in Section H Row K seats 5 and 6 if they are an upgrade to what you have!

I took a deep dive into the H. Allen Jerkens G1 today.  I'll be playing all the races but this one interested me enough as quite frankly I don't spend much time with 3 YO sprinters.


The weather today seems to be dry.  You'll find Scratches/Changes and Track Conditions at this NYRA link.  By the way, it's pretty weak NYRA that this page is unavailable at 9:45 AM day of the biggest day of the meet.  As of 12:30 ET I see no changes to the sixth race announced.

Lets get right to this!


Race 6:  The H. Allen Jerkens (King Bishop) G1;  7 Furlongs; Dirt

Amsterdam G3: 6 1/2 F Good Dirt

Dwyer G3: 1 mile Fast Dirt



The race was really contested from the 1/2 mile pole up the stretch;  In this picture you'll see just before the 1/2 pole Firenze Fire (118 Late Timeform Pace) starting to move and looking to the outside as the rail is covered.   Seven Trumpets is covered in 4th along the rail






















With Robbie Albarado upon Seven Trumpets, he made a masterful move pulling away from the rail diagonally in the turn to clear Mendelssohn and continue the charge at Firenze Fire.

Ultimately, Firenze Fire rolled to 9 length win with Seven Trumpets took a well beaten Place


Let's go back to the Woody Stephens G2: 7F Fast Dirt




In this race we had absolutely blistering fractions set mostly by Promises Fulfilled: :21.46 First 1/4 and :22.22 Second Quarter and :24.75 third quarter with a plodding :27.58 adjusted last quarter (13.79 final 1/8).

Just look at the lane Still Having Fun (109 Timeform Pace Late) has to run into against tiring front runners.  The modestly bred Maryland bred set his career best Beyer on this day.  Engage (4 Places in seven career starts) again has no excuse for lacking a finishing kick. It didn't come out very clearly but that's Givemeaminit 18 lengths back before finishing about 7 back.  The Dallas Stewart trained La bred Star Guitar son followed this up with a dog of an Indiana Derby with a bad ride and he gets Leparoux up today.

With one hop to the wire, Engage has conceded to Still Having Fun while Givemeaminit is flying. Promises Fulfilled had nothing left.

Don't completely dismiss Ontario bred Telekinesis.  here he runs a pretty steady pace over fake dirt in the Plate Trial, beating the Place horse to Wonder Gadot next time out breaking from 15th post.






Pletcher brings an interesting Gidu (Ire) into this race.  First time dirt for the son of Frankel (GB) with J. Velaquez up.  He was the heavy chalk here beating Curlin's Honor at 7f over very firm turf at BEL in the Paradise Creek 98K.



Funny Duck  has a race third best Slop Tomlinson of 428 and won his only win on dirt in Pat Day Dirt Mile G3 at CD at 39-1.




Analysis by paralysis or good info?  I'll leave that to my readers to decide but I find these breakdowns very helpful to me as I'm assigning worth to an individual race effort.  These 3 Yo sprint classifications to me are random:  What makes this race today a Grade 1 and was the Amsterdam a Grade 3 or the Woody Stephenson a G2? To me, they are all about the same and I refuse to credit much of a difference to winning one over the other.




I can't say I have a very strong opinion and this should be a very good betting race.  I like Promises Fulfilled to break very fast and carry speed to win.  I would not be surprised if he was gobbled up in the last 1/8 of a mile.

I would not expect Engage to be the gobbler.  He's shown a propensity to finish in Place and that's where I'm tucking him in.

Firenze Fire will have to get a great ride breaking from the 8th post but should be flying late.

Gidu (Ire) is a real wild card and you have to respect Pletcher, The Zayat's and JV for placing the colt in this spot.  At the odds, worth consideration for Win-Place or Show.

Don't sleep on Telekensesis but I think its a minor prize only, and I could say the same about Seven Trumpets and Still Having Fun, both of these colts  have 109 Late Pace Timeforms and should be advancing at the end.

Have fun friends.  Turk Out!