Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 25, 2011: The Cornhusker Handicap Day Late Pick Four at Prairie Meadows

I'm not sure about you race fans, but I enjoyed the action at Prairie Meadows this past weekend, especially Saturday night. As predicted, there were money magnets in the races, as both the Iowa Oaks and the Iowa Derby had a 1 to 2 horse taking heavy action and both horses, Daisy Devine and Astrology, finished out of the money. You hard core types know what that means, cha-chang!

I am kicking myself a bit: If you would have bet my pick 4 as I laid out Saturday morning exactly as I had it, you would have spent $180 and returned $1556.50. I went cheap in Race 10, the $12,500 Maiden Claimer and covered only three horses instead of five. These races are hard to predict and I should have just covered what I handicapped, but The Turk is human and I do leave money on the table from time to time. No matter how experienced or good you think you are, you will make mistakes, if that's even the right term. I was comfortable with a $180 Pick Four bet but I hate to over-cover and I out-thought myself. I try not to dwell on the mistakes and I'll move along.




The Iowa Oaks


The Iowa Derby



The Cornhusker Handicap



I had a thought tonight: The sport is marketed constantly to a wide public audience with mixed results. A big problem is so few sports reporters give a hoot about racing. It's time the sport "targets" key reporters and columnists at major old media news organizations and sponsors trips to the track. The track is the drug, the track is what sells itself. The more columnists and radio talk show hosts that talk up their love of the sport, the more it will sink into the mainstream again.

Who loves football wildcard games on Saturday Nights? Prairie Meadows, with the big races going off between 9-10 PM Eastern time, could have been huge had it been marketed by a organization that had racing's best interests in mind, not just the interest of a big track. Just sayin'....

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: Leg 2 of Late Pick Four on Belmont Stakes Day; The Just A Game Grade I

The Turk's chalk in the Grade I Just a Game is C.S. Silk, captured to the left in a nice photo by Candice Chavez, who we thank for its use.

Expect yielding turf, no better than soft going. None of the runners had significant soft going experience so I started with a review of their abilities over the expected turf and settled on covering four from this field of nine, in this the second leg of the late Pick Four.

Let's get after it!



C.S. Silk is a five year old mare daughter of Medaglia d' Oro trained by Dale Romans. She's been training over Belmont turf now for the over a month after a so-so effort over yielding turf at KEE in April. Cutting back in distance, 9 of 14 in the money over turf and 3 of 4 in the money at the distance. Very tepid chalk but I'm expecting a decent price and this is gambling afterall!

Aviate (GB) with Kent Desormeaux up, comes in off a win in Grade 2, 1 mile turf event at CD. Tied with Amen Hallelujah with last race best Beyer. Mott's winning 19% of his Won Last Start's and 17% of his Graded Stakes, with a solid 15% over grass.

Strike the Bell is a bit of a stretch but I like the 6 of 9 in the money at BEL and 11 of 15 in the money on turf for Trainer Donk who places Ramon Dominguez up, a 28% winner.

Fantasia (GB), trained by J. Sheppard for Augustin Stables, has a yielding turf, 1 mile win from last October at WO. Winless in 2011, the five year old Sadler's Well mare ran a poor Just A Game a year ago.

I most likely will work Gypsy's Warning (SAf) in too; Team Valor's six year old Leparox up is 14 of 17 in the money over turf with 7 wins and is 5 of 5 in the money at the distance, she's also starting over BEL turf for the first time. 2nd effort in 2011, Trainer Motion is winning 22% of his Graded Stakes and is 19% over grass. Very impressive and demands attention.

I like Amen Hallelujah, just not in this spot. R.Dutrow and IEAH, not so much.

have fun friends, more later, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 21, 2011: The Late Pick 4 Preakness Day at Pimlico

Is your bourbon glass half full or half empty?

I find myself asking that as I sat here alone going through the days events. On one hand I am blogging about a day with an over $5,000 profit, yet, as I studied the race chart, I realized that I had the Super High Five choices cold within my Superfecta bet on the Preakness, and the Superhigh Five paid a whopping $49,742.

I left alot of money on the table with a bet I never considered. My creature of habit ways that I preach as the secret to my consistent results can sometimes work against me when considering new ideas.

My nature is half full and I'm not regretful at all. I'll learn from this and when I have the feeling like I had today I'll consider the Super High Five and maybe karma will be there for me.

Let's get after it!

Pimlico Pick 4 Race 9-12



i could taste this Pick Four and in the end it didn't work out. I was high on Shackleford for the Kentucky Derby but I really thought the speed wouldn't carry today and it did.

Race 9 started great for me; I loved Shared Account but I went into the race planning to bet against her and I nailed No Explaining cold. I'm a big Roger Attfield fan over the grass and his filly looked great up the stretch. I placed for me a rare win bet which paid $8.80 and I had a simple four horse superfecta box that I cashed as well.

I passed on betting in race 10 with the scratches, especially Pleasant Prince, my chalk. I covered Apart in the Pick 4 and stayed alive. I like the way the colt battled, something I hadn't seem much in him previously.

I was high on Baryshnikov in race 11 and he only faltered ounder a gritty effort by Paddy O' Prado who I wisely covered in the Pick 4 to stay alive again.

And finally in the Preakness I had tunnel vision on betting the Superfecta and never considered the Super High Five. Never once did I consider the bet. I'm not too proud to admit mistakes and I'll learn from it. Even the Ol' Turk learns new tricks as time goes by. I went deep into my handicap for the Superfecta, skipping over only Flashpoint who I thought would rabbit and falter, which he did. I didn't cover Shackleford in the Pick 4 as I thought he'd fizzle and die to, but in reality, I was too conservative. Adding him to my Pick 4 would have cost me an additional $96 and I would have netted $255. I don't like to over cover in the P4, so ( have to love with it.

I'm not going to sing the blues about woulda, shoulda, coulda bets. I hit a big time signer and I was all over this card as well as the Black Eyed Susan card. Staying consistent and keeping an open mind about opportunities like the Super high Five is the lesson I'll take from this.

I'm drained. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 21, 2011; The Preakness Day Late All Graded Stakes Pick 4

These are the good days in the racing calendar friends; We have a new Kentucky Derby champion, Animal Kingdom, hope is flowering like Maryland's Black Eyed Susan's about a possible Triple Crown, and a wonderful all graded stakes Pick 4 gives us an opportunity to handicap and then bet within the races and vertically throughout the later stages of the card. Two turf races run at something less than firm and two dirt races that most likely will be listed as fast, but not speed carrying, is what it looks like to me and I'm feelin' it. Let's get after it before my devout readers get raptured!

Pimlico Race 9-12: The Late Pick 4 including The Preakness



Keep an eye on the weather and the scratches and changes. The best thing to do is watch some of the undercard and get a feel for how the two track surrfaces are playing.

Race 9 offers a 1 1/16 mile turf affair. The eight horse field is pretty strong with heavy chalk Shared Account, and some overseas breds, No Explaining (Ire), Desert Sage (GB) and Dyna Waltz (GB). I'm going to hope that the Breeders' Cup champ Shared Account is a bit off her game off a +180 layoff (trainer Motion does win 15% of these tho) and that one of the invaders takes the top spot. I'm a Roger Attfield fan and his No Explaining comes in off a nice yielding turf effort at KEE about 1 month ago, while Chad Brown has turf maestro Leparoux up on Desert Sage off of two nice wins and now stepping up in class. Dominguez is up for Team Sheppard and Strawbridge on Dyna Waltz, a formidable threesome.

Race 10 is a wide open grade III dirt mile and one sixteenth: Trainer Motion brings Icabad Crane, the NY bred son of Jump Start in as an expected chalk but Wesley Ward restarts Pleasant Prince and I'm hoping for the right price. Both are logical win candidates and Researcher and Apart should be factored in as well. My 'tweener is Colizeo, who I still may cover if I go the 50 cent route; 7 of 8 in the money at the distance and 9 of 12 on fast dirt for trainer Pletcher.

The Grade II Dixie on turf marks the return of Paddy O' Prado, who a year ago started his march towards turf powerhouse after finishing up the track in the Preakness. Will be heavily bet, covered by me as well, but I'm looking for two horses, Baryshnikov and Slews Answer to provide incredible value on this bet if they could take the win spot. Slews Answer is a lightly raced Trainer Motion charge (is it me of is he everywhere now?)and the Ghostzapper son out of Slews Final Answer was bred for this surface and distance and only lacks in experience. Baryshinikov is a 5 year old journeyman with 33 starts, 7 wins and most likely a price around 12-1.

In the Pick Four finale, the Grade I Preakness , I'm backing Animal Kingdom, but I rate Mucho Macho Man, Dance City and Astrology strong contenders. I won't ramble any more than that and we'll just watch it and see what happens.

I'll be building superfectas based on my base handicaps and I will be watching the undercard and adjusting if need be for the track conditions. Dialed In may rank higher if the speed dies on the front end like yesterday but I'm just not there with him.

Have fun friends, don't take it too seriously, bet responsibly and enjoy!

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 19, 2011; The Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four including the Azeri and the Rebel

That smilin' cowboy to the left is Larry Jones, the winning conditioner of Havre de Grace, the 2011 winner of the Grade III Azeri at Oaklawn Park on Rebel Stakes day.

The Turk netted $140 bucks but came up just short of his targeted Pick Four bet when the last leg, a Maiden Claimer, didn't go our way. A Superfecta bet on the Azeri did well for me, as I didn't think it was too complicated to have Havre de Grace and Blind Luck 1-2 and then find a few others for Show and 4th. My Superfecta bet in the Rebel came up just off, as Sartaoga Red and JW Blue snuck in ahead of lumbering duo Sway Away and JP's Gusto. Sway Away was a real disappointment and I'm curious where he turns next, while J.P's Gusto is about what I thought he was. The race was very different then what I handicapped with the scratch of Elite Alex and then the late scratch of Alternation, but no excuses.

What do we make of The Factor. I've loved him this spring but perhaps wrongly pigeonholed him as a sprinter/miler. The gallop out showed me he's got 1 1/8 no problem and 1 1/4 may be within reach.

Oaklawn Park Pick Four March 19, 2011







We've finally reached the most interesting part of Derby prep time. The serious runners of the 3 YO crop will be making plans for their final preps and horses we may be discounting at this point will slip under the radar. What a great sport, ain't life grand?

Have fun this week, be safe, show your friends and family you love them. The Turk gave up bourbon and cigars for lent so I'm overcompensating with coffee to keep my cheery disposition intact.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 1, 2010: The NYRA Pick 4 including the Count Fleet Stakes

Yeah, it looks JUST like this. the glamorous people, wandering up the driveway, to watch the Count Fleet Stakes in mildy inclement weather. Come on down and check it out. Well, not really, but there are construction trailers and signs pointing to a different future and the old barn ain't too bad and when you get hungry, check out Don Peppe around the corner for some great food.

Happy New Year Friends and Readers of the Turk and Little Turk. The holiday season is always special, and New Years Day is once last chance to relax and recharge the batteries before the grind begins anew. I took a gander over at Santa Anita, but a five horse field in The Robert Frankel Grade II and a not so interesting rest of the card turned my eyes back to the NYRA Pick 4 at Aqueduct and a not so exciting claimer and maiden race that are intermixed with the Count Fleet and ChampagneforAshley Stakes. Let's roll with it!

Aqueduct Pick 4 Race 6-7-8-9



The Count Fleet has been contested by horses of good caliber, with Haynesfield and Smarty Jones just two notable alumni. Today's edition has a few potential stakes winners; Pants on Fire with two time winner R. Dominguez up, comes in with a near win on the track and a trainer in Kelly Breen who wins 24% of 2nd races off 45 day layoffs.

Rush Now is a stakes winner with a 38% winner combo at the Big A of Rose up and Anthony Dutrow conditioning. Dutrow's stats are pretty gaudy and I won't rattle them all off but 25% stakes winners on 75 tries is sweet.

J J's Lucky Train and Arthur's Tale, especially Authur's Tale, look strong and if you want more than a chalky taste in your mouth,the son of Bernadini may be a good direction to look.

In Race 8, the ChampagneforAshley Stakes, three horses stand out: Eminent Tale has been off since mid November and training regular at Aqueduct. The modestly bred runner starts for Dick Dutrow Jr. who wins 28% of 2nd off 45 starters and 26% of his dirt races.

Beau de Beaupre comes in winning two in a row, including a stake at Aqueduct.

Sky Music is a Pletcher/Dominguez joint looking for a bounce back after a last race erratic effort as the heavy chalk.

I'm pushing the time for this sequence, so have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: November 20, 2010: The Aqueduct/NYRA Late Pick 4

That handsome son of Golden Missile is Golden Moka, a crazy 8 month layoff horse who never went past six furlongs before shocking the Canadian horse racing Triple Crown Series with a win at the Turk's home track, Fort Erie. Freshened after a dull effort in late September, and not my chalk here, but clearly capable and a great story for horse racing and his connections.

Golden Moka is carrying top weight will be taking on a nice field of speed in the featured race at Aqueduct and the top race in the Pick 4, the Grade III Discovery Handicap. Let's get after it!

Aqueduct Late Pick 4: Race 6 Post Time 2:48 ET



The weather should be fine but keep your eye on ths scratches/changes as there are alot of "also eligibles" in the two turf races. The dirt should be fast and the turf should be firm.

For my presumptive Pick Four I'll be singling Kid's Kate in the Foil. In the Discovery Handicap for a seven horse field I like the match ups quite a bit. I'm backing Shadwell Stables' Al Muhatsib but Teaks North and Dominant Jeannes will be forces to reckon with.

I'll do my job as a blogger a bit better tomorrow and actually say something about these runners in my post race analysis, and for now will have to let my chart speak for itself.

And finally an overdue review of my losing effort at Churchill Downs Last week. While The Turk picked three of four winners in the Pick Four, it was a dull and uninspired effort. Always be honest with yourself and take days off when you need to.



Stage Magic was 9 out of 9 with with and 6th of 9 with the bettors and he undid my handicap. Moving on. I know Sister Turk, Calvin was up at Churchill Downs.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day October 16, 2010: The Woodbine Late Pick Four Canadian International Day

The Turk and his sidekick, The Little Turk, have almost 15,000 reasons to smile after today's Late Pick 4 at Woodbine today. I'll be celebrating with a carmel colored cashmere top coat from Jos. A Bank and the Little Turk gets a new Itunes gift card. Mama Turk, well she gets anything she wants.

The Turk preaches modesty, as this game humbles even the best of handicappers regularly, and there is a big difference between celebrating and bragging. I hope this blog entry, while gleaming of celebration, is not interpreted as bragging. So much went right, so much else could have happened, and the results are truly a reflection of an approach I've been developing for nearly twenty years of handicapping. Let's get after it friends!

It's amazing how slowly I complete a post race analysis when I lose compared to when I win, but the one thing I always do is break down my betting effort, good, bad, and often ugly. As I was just saying two weeks ago after another good effort, I prepare my DRF Formulator PP's devoid of morning lines and I eschew pre race hype. Why? It influences me, and with races that are heavy with European runners, that sort of influence really throws me off. After I handicapped I went back and looked at the Morning Lines just to see how we lined up and I wasn't surprised I had a bit of a contrarian view overall. When you handicap and make your picks public, even with a very lightly read blog like this one, you never really want to be embarrassed. The temptation is to follow conventional wisdom and fall in line with what the talking heads are predicting. You've got to learn to not worry about what others think and you have to do your own thinking. No shortcuts.

Woodbine Race 8-9-10-11 Pick Four



The post race analysis told me I was really dialed in today, so much so I think I left behind an equal amount of money that I won still on the table. I try to avoid that type of thinking, that concept of what I woulda-shoulda-coulda did.

In Race 8, The Nearctic, I backed tepidly Amico Fritz (Ger) to win. He had a hard time crossing the Maginot Line in this one, but I had Grand Adventure and Fatal Bullet straight in the Place and Show spots and I had Field Commission and Serious Attitude(Ire) in the Triactor box to take $3,366.10 on a $48 box. A great way to start the day. As I said pre race as well, I was taking four horses in the Pick 4 no matter what and I needed my fourth.

In Race 9, The E.P. Taylor, I pretty much had the top six exact in what was a pretty straight forward affair. I correctly downgraded a horse I am partial too, Mekong Melody (Ire) and placed Miss Keller (Ire) properly above Shalanaya (Ire) and Contredanse(Ire), and had Reggane (GB) fourth while the betting public tabbed him for 6th. The same $48 dollar boxed Triactor this time grossed $526.50 for me. Still alive in the Pick 4 after two.

Race 10, The Canadian International, I had a darn fine handicap with the exception of Mores Wells (GB) flying into the blanket finish. That's racing, and I was correct in downgrading Marsh Side, Simmard, and Fifty Proof, all fine horses, from the top 4. Alive after three after including the Joshua Tree (Ire), the bettors third choice.

Race 11 was a $12,500 maiden claimer that made my head hurt handicapping, but no sense in spending $144 dollars on a Pick 4 bet just to screw up the maiden claimer. I identified three horses, with Disclosure winning as the bettor's second choice.

As I've been trying to illustrate pre race, there are many different ways to approach these multi race bets, with my method being to identify a bet risk I'm willing to take and cut it off there. My Facebook friends know I've been noddling on these races since Thursday morning and I had a $300 budget for the weekend. I built a 4 X 4 X 3 X 3 selection for the Pick Four and could have used almost my entire budget on a $2 bet but I instead placed it for $1. At $144 I was quite pleased to pocket $11,099.55 and I'm doing my best to avoid thinking about what I had planned to be a $2 bet. By staying at $144 I had enough room to place boxed Triactor Bets on the three main races, nearly placing Super bets that would have paid a bundle, but if I'm anything friends, I'm a very disciplined bettor.

Handicapping is an odd mixture of math, pattern prediction, art and feel. I reject the notion that the results are best predicted by computers analyzing pace and heavily modified speed figures. A red gel pen, DRF Past Performances with workouts embedded, fractional times, jockey and trainer stats, and some limited analysis is all I really need, no pre race hype and most definitely no morning lines, track handicappers, celebrity handicappers, bloggers, anyone. I love to read all of that, but after I've committed. A new tool I'm really utilizing is a Ipad App from Equibase that allows me to quickly get information and view video of specific races. Just incredible what information we have available to us now, it's important to keep it all in perspective that in these horse events, the same things happen over and over and over again.

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day October 2, 2010; The Belmont Park All Grade I Pick Four

A picture from the wonderful Sarah K. Andrew of Haynesfield, winner of the 2010 Jockey Club Gold Cup and the key horse that powered a Turk 1-800-Hammer Iron Cold Lock $2,595 Pick 4 win.

The Turk spent about 2 hours handicapping these four races and then another 90 minutes posting my blog entry. That's the sort of effort I can't put in while I'm sitting in the stands at the track but today, in my home study, I felt it and I played it.

As I say all the time friends The Turk never, never, ever brags. This game is humbling. I consider myself a good handicapper but what does that really mean? At the end of the day, nothing because nobody is right all the time. I hear often that the races are run on dirt (or grass) and not on the paper past performances. While true, the beauty of the Daily Race Form Past Performance (Yes I'm an unpaid and unsolicited spokesperson and my preference is Deluxe Formulators with full trainer stats, split times and works mixed in with race results, and I like the handicapper notes but not the morning lines) is that all the information is there to make informed decisions and good handicaps.

The Turk admits to his closet friends that I don't think you even need to watch the races to handicap well. I went years before Youtube/HRTV/TVG etc where I almost never saw video of the races I handicap and bet. The information is there on paper. Flukes happen all the time, but over the long haul, the best horses at the right point in their form cycle and entered in the right place in the conditions book win.

One piece of information I completely ignore and I encourage my readers to completely ignore is morning lines. Don't let the Turk, morning lines, anyone, tell you who is going to win before you come up with your own base case model. Sometimes I'll look after I bet, sometimes I'll look after I take my handicap final, but it will influence you and influence is the enemy. You're smart friends, you don't need bias. I also skip the hype filled articles chock full with BS quotes from trainers and connections about why their horse will win. The articles are a bias of the writer and they will screw you up. Enjoy the articles after you commit to a handicap, as the writing of turf journalists is very high quality and reflects well on the spirit of Mr. Joe Hirsch on the day we remember him.

What was the key today for The Turk? Losing my last two weeks Pick Fours bets most assuredly: Woodbine Mile day two weeks ago and Gallant Bloom day at Belmont last weekend. I'm competitive and I hold this blog and my handicapping to a high standard. My post race analysis is really a post bet analysis and what my post race analysis has been telling me is that I've been nailing winners but not covering enough. I've been on a heavy "less is more" kick and perhaps I took it too far. I had a $200 budget today and I covered who I thought I needed to and spent $144 dollars and then I placed a $20 bet on one horse to win, the horse I suggested was the horse to beat Blame, Haynesfield. Do I think he's better than Blame, no, but the NY bred loves NY dirt as much as Blame loves Churchill Downs. So that was my secret, I was pissed I lost the past two weekends and resolved to not lose again. If Blame wins, if Paddy O' Prado wins, if Unrivaled Belle wins, I'm talking about a Pick Four win that doesn't justify the betting risk. It takes luck too and luck isn't anywhere to be found on a past performance.

Belmont Park Late Pick Four Races 7-8-9-10



So what really was powering my results: I included Ave (bettor's sixth highest choice) in my bet even though I soured on her after the Beverly D. I mentioned pre-race my respect for Attfield/Castellano and I was rewarded. I got the obvious 8th Race right by covering Life at Ten (bettor's second choice) even though I was concerned the speed duel with Rachel Alexandra may have set her back. I rated Winchester high (second bettor's choice) even though I never expected the bettor's to rate him so high, but again the key was I refused to accept the fact that Blame was unbeatable, I refused to consider Rail Trip, and I believed in Haynesfield and I said so.

$2,680 gross earnings on a bet of $164 dollars. Good Stuff indeed.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 25, 2010 Belmont Park Late Pick 4 including the Grade II Gallant Bloom

That's Rapport, the Grade III winning runner for Trainer Baffert with M. Garcia up and the Turk's chalk in the Grade II Gallant Bloom at Belmont Park today. The Turk went to the tape and had to watch the Grade III Azalea before I could get comfortable picking Rapport. With R. Albarado up, Rapport shot out of the gate for a quarter mile in :21 1/5 and a half mile in :44 3/5 before shortening her stride in the stretch and getting gutty to hold on for fourth. Garcia goes back up, winning his last three rides with her, and she takes on the regal and much classier Sara Louise, last seen on a race track in November 2009.

These late September races are setting the stage for horses thinking Breeders' Cup and you get a mixture of horses coming off breaks or horses in a second of three race cycle looking to be peaked in early November. This Late Pick Four ain't no walk through the garden either. No real singles jump off the page and if I went purely off my base handicap I'd spend a whole lot and most likely lose or return less than my investment. That's not a good place to be so we will have to take some chances, gamble, and see if we can't make the investment and possible reward come back into the proper perspective. Let's get after it!

Belmont Park Late Pick 4; Post Time for Race 6 is 3:39 ET



In Race 6, I'm backing Stevil, a 30 start 5 YO gelding who's been in the money 19 times. He's most likely the bettor's chalk here although Lemon Spice, a Chad Brown runner with Borel up, will get play. Lemon Spice is 6 of 10 in the money on turf with a 92 BSF on fast Gulfstream Turf and is 4 of 5 in the money at the distance. For value, Glacier Bay is a nice 4 YO son of Distorted Humor and carries a race high 123 pounds. 4 of 6 in the money in 2010.

Race 7 is a claimer with a $25K purse again run a 1 1/16 miles on what should be firm turf. Shimmering Forest returns to this class after Placing at Saratoga on Woodward day. 4 of 5 in the money on turf. Hasten to be King is a stretch but comes in off a first race maiden breaker who was bred by Bobby Frankel and is now trained by Contessa. A nice turn of foot at 6f for Gomez, M. Luzzi is up today for the first time turf try. Don Balcazio is the best of the rest and I respect Trainer Clement with Maragh up, winners of 23% together at BEL.

Race 8 is an Allowance N1X with a $54,000 purse. Pretty Boy Freud is my tepid chalk; 10 of 13 in the money lifetime, a win would double Trainer O'Brien's 2010 total in 57 tries. I'm warming up on Devon Rock, starting sixth race, 3 of 4 in the money on Turf and a winner on Belmont turf in June. Will press the pace but his last few run lines paint a picture, "...faded...weakened...lugged in..." Optimism is a string suit of mine. Missinglisalewis is more polished with 6 of 8 in the money at the distance, 11 of 17 in the money on turf and 6 of 10 in the money on the turf at Belmont for Trainer Domino. Harmonizer, with Leparoux up, tries turf for the first time, something Trainer Maker does Ok with at 16% of his tries and a dirt to turf switcher at 18%. He's got dirt speed but he'll need to stay further today as well.

And in the Gallant Bloom Rapport gets my nod after a 103 BSF and win at Saratoga on Travers Day in the Grade III Victory Ride. Sara Louise won the Victory Ride last year only to run Place to Indian Blessing in the Gallant Bloom. The Godolphin Team bounces back from +180 layoffs 31% of the time and the horse has plenty of class and quality to not be phased by the inactivity. I'm not buying if 2-1 or 3-2 but I'm covering in Pick 4. Qualia is a nice horse for one of The Turk's favorites, Trainer Ribaudo, and the bettors might be comforted by My Jen and Pretty Prolific, capable teases.

As bettor's, this is a card that we ask for: Nine horse fields, quality competition, few heavy chalks, good stuff indeed. If you want easy, well, go somewhere else. I love Big Sandy in the fall, and with dirt being the surface of choice at the Breeders' Cup again this year I believe we'll see the best fall racing here instead of Oak Tree Hollywood.

Build your own handicap and have fun with it. Watch the weather which should be great, the scratches and changes, and keep that tote board in your mind. Value, value, value, but most importantly, fun, fun, fun. Never bet more then you can afford to lose from your household's budget.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 7, 2010: Saratoga Late Pick 4 including Grade I Test and Whitney

The wonderfully talented Sarah K. Andrew's portait of Quality Road is one of my favorite horse head shots of all time. This magnificent animal I am told is friendly and gentle, and on the track there is no better four year in training anywhere in the world. the Turk owns tickets to this coming Breeders' Cup and I tingle at the idea of seeing the greats that will line up against Quality Road on the biggest stage, no longer able to not enter races where he is, no longer able to run against inferior fields. The rubber will meet the road in the Breeders' Cup Classic and my money is on this beautiful monster of a horse.

Before I get all misty and blubbering, we have a Late Pick 4 at Saratoga that i'll take a run at hitting with a thin ticket and a single on Quality Road. Let's go!

Saratoga Late Pick 4 Race 8-11; First Post Time 4:42



I'll wax a bit more poetic in my post race analysis and I'll leave my spreadsheet to speak for itself right now.

Check the Scratches and Changes before you place your bets.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day April 17, 2010: The Aqueduct Pick 4 including the Distaff Handicap

That good looking sire to the left is an A.P. Indy son, father of Pashito the Che and yesterday's Distaff Handicap winner, Tar Heel Mom, Flatter.

The Turk found success yesterday with the Aqueduct card. On a sloppy sealed track we "assembled" a Pick 3 and Pick 4 winner as well as an exacta and trifecta win and a handicap of the Distaff Handicap that we nailed the exact order of finish prerace. I made a point of discussing pre-race that the card at Keeneland with the Lexington and the Giant's Causeway, or Santa Anita with The Santa Barbara were more attractive but that I wanted to play the Big A card. Remember, don't be married to playing a particular place, look at the cards and pick the one you think you can win. Let's get after it!

Aqueduct Race 7 - 8 - 9 - 10 : The Pick Three and Pick 4 including the Distaff Handicap.



The bet construction followed my pre-race analysis nearly identical. Readers of the Turk know that I like to prepare my base handicaps and then use that base handicap to assemble my bets. Race 7's winner was the third shortest price on the board, Odessa's Hope. Our Special Effort had control to the top of the stretch but tired and with D. Cohen up, Odessa's Hope powered away to win by 2f.

Race 8 was won by the fourth lowest price, Positive Pitch. Two legs of the Pick Four were now in the books, won by my last horse included in the bet construction. Good stuff, let's keep going.

Race 9 was the Grade II Distaff Handicap. I really liked this field and this would have been a much more competitive field on a fast track, but it was sloppy and sealed and one horse stood out on the PP's as the one to beat on slop, a strong runner on her own, Tar Heel Mom. Taking control at the 1/4 pole, she fired off fractions of :22, :44 4/5, 1:10 1/5 and then brought it home at 1:24 2/5ths and was pressed just slightly at 1/2 pole and then not again. The Turk put all five starters in exact order pre race and I had a $2 exacta and $2 Trifecta win to show for it. Don't be influenced by hard talkin' handicapping types that would tell you that nailing chalky exactas and trifectas isn't worth the effort: $42.20 gross on $4 bet is always worth it!

Race 9 brought to an end the late Pick Three which the Turk took down for $119 on a $36 dollar bet. I took it but one race was left to complete my goal, a Pick Four win.

Race 10 almost got away from me. My pre-race chart excluded Ballast (Ire). It was a big field of 10 in a one mile turf claimer and as I wrote my blog entry I got more and more enamored with the experience of Ballast (Ire): This was the 9 YO geldings 47th Turf start, 25 of 46 in the money on Turf and recent steady turf efforts. 1 win in the last 13 efforts almost turned me away but I inserted and completed my day with the Pick 4 win. I did not expect Ballast to be the bettors top choice. In the vacuum of my office I had him slotted no better then 4th choice, but my top choices are still out there running as I type.

So what to take away from this? Today was about bet construction more then my ability to pick single winners of difficult races. The easiest of the bunch was the Grade II Distaff Handicap, and I nailed that exactly, a feat more rare then I would expect. The other three races were just the ol' Turk tossing most of the field and settling on the expected favorites and inserting some value as well. My rule of thumb is if I have three choices in a race, at least one has to be a reasonable price with a reasonable chance of victory. I got that and got decent payouts on my bets.

I'd be remiss to not mention Tuscan Evening (Ire). I first handicapped Tuscan Evening last November at Hollywood and was impressed, but what she did at Santa Anita this meet was really special. Congrats.

Have fun with your bet construction. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: April 17, 2010; The Aqueduct Late Pick 4 including the Grade II Distaff Handicap

The are several nice stakes races going on today: Keeneland's Lexington Stakes, The Charles Town Classic, and at Santa Anita, The Santa Barbara. Instead of handicapping those, I thought I'd dig in for a little gritty Aqueduct action for no other reason then I'm a New York fella at heart. That's Justwhistledixie, with her connections from West Point Thoroughbreds, and previous trainer K. McLaughlin. She's under the care of Bill Mott now, and she's at a longer price most likely today then she's been in awhile. A smallish but talented field of six after two early scratches greets her in the Grade II Distaff Handicap, the featured race today at the Big A. Let's get it on!

Aqueduct Race 7-8-9-10: The Pick Four



Gather your information before you start. You'll find the weather here and the scratches/changes here.

Race 7 is a $15,000 claiming race for 3 YOs foaled in NYS. There are a few horses here that have had good efforts in the slop; Our Special Effort/1 has a career best BSF of 66 on a sloppy Aqueduct track.

That said, I'm going with what I consider better horses in the first leg of the Pick Four. Odessa's Hope/6 is a 4 Yo with D. Cohen up for Trainer Gyarmati. Blow Up/9 is dropping back in class for Trainer Toscano and Never Give Up/10 also drops in class for Trainer B. Brown. brown has great stats with 21% claimer wins, 24% Won Last Starts, and 25% 2nd Off Over 180. Considering singling.

Race 8 is a 6 furlong 40K N1X for Fillies and Mares. I like three here and I think the bettors will too: Risky Rachel/2 has a good win on slop, Spanish Luck/4 is trained by R. Reid who has fantastic stats and this horse has the most earnings per race of the field. Positive Pitch/7 is a B. Levine trainee with a win at the distance but never on slop. Thinking of just betting the first two here.

Race 9 is the Grade II Distaff Handicap. Tar Heel Mom has 3 wins on an off track which makes her hard to ignore. Justwhistledixie is a quality horse who hasn't won in four races. Mott drops her distance and brings her in after sharpening her since late February. Matchless Orinda will provide lots of early speed but will fight the slowing track as she goes. Trainer Pletcher's Hour Glass also has shown a strong affinity for off track and is the most consistent runner of the bunch. I'm going to bet some exacta/trifecta combinations straight and have a bit of fun with it.

Race 10 is a 1 mile turf affair, currently still listed as on the turf. Marina Market/5 goes for Trainer S. Asmussen for the first time, something he pulls off wins with 21% of the time. No turf wins yet but Asmussen is 17% on the Dirt/Turf switch. Sydney Road/10 has 3 Turf wins and 5 of 7 in the money on Turf. Ballast (Ire) has 9 turf wins and is 25 of 46 in the money on Turf. I am considering inserting Ballast into my Pick 4 as long as I don't exceed my bet allowance of $54 dollars.

Have Fun with it, Turk Out! Go Sabres!

Anatomy of a Bet: Oaklawn Park Pick 4, March 13, 2010

There are two distinct and independant parts to the process the Turk employs before placing a bet at either a Window or at YouBet: The Handicap and then the Bet Construction. The Turk is a practical man, borderline boring except for his affinity for cigars and bourbon, two very hip things discussed in paddocks all over the country. I advocate a year or so of handicapping without betting to the bored business travelers I prattle on with over a drink and stale pretzels on the airplanes I ride weekly. Why? Because money is pressure. Losing money is pressure. Why place pressure on yourself when you aren't ready? Take a year I tell people. Handicap a few races a week, just like a crossword puzzle or Suduko, and gain your skills. I doubt anyone listens but that's my advice.

The Turk is comfortable as a handicapper. There was a time when he did whole cards five days a week and it was during that time I worked out the fundamentals of what is important to me. My handicaping isn't sexy. I block and tackle and take the numbers on the paper and try to bring order from chaos. I prefer to handicap without the morning lines and I follow a simple rule: I never read about the race i'm going to handicap before I complete my base handicap. Why? It's not information, it's personal bias reported dutifully. It screws me up to read Trainer X tell me that his horse is ready or the opposite,tell me he's not ready but really mean he is ready and will kick everyone's ass. The time for me to read is after my work is done.

The Turk is a OK gambler and bet constructor. My edict is low risk, medium reward, and readers of the Turk see pre-race analysis from me and a steady supply of post race success. I say I'm OK because my fatal flaw is not the handicap but deciding when and where to put a little bit more skin in the game in order to hit the big payoff.

This past weekend I was penny wise, dollar foolish as I left a $304 Pick Four on the table. Why did I do this? Did I get the handicap wrong? Nope, I was trying to save $18 dollars. Make this a two dollar bet, costing me $108 and you have a $600 winner.

The Anatomy of the Bet: Race 8- Race 9 - Race 10- Race 11 OP March 13, 2010



The Honeybee kicked off the beginning of the Pick 4. Right off the bat I seized on a few horses that seemed better then the rest: No Such Word was in off a win, breaking 1:00 in 5f work and had an OP win. Negatives included a win on Slop, a distance increase and a class increase. Decelerator who I named my chalk, was on nice two race progression and was breezing well. Negatives were losing half a length on the last call of the previous race and rather slow fractions to boot. Beautician seemed the most accomplished but was off a long layoff and a horrible effort the last time out. A three horse boxed exacta cost me $24 but I won a handsome $103 for my troubles. The Pick four was dead though after one race and why? Because I was trying to not over select horses for the races and I deleted the wrong runner. It happens and we'll get back to that!

My analysis of the Honeybee scrawled into the DRF Deluxe Past Performance

In race 9 I narrowed down the list to Sea Gaze/2, Grensham/5 and Follow the Leader/7. Follow the Leader, the heavy chalk won easily. I had three selections in the Pick 4 and perhaps that was overkill.

My Analysis of Race 9, a OC/40K scrawled onto the DRF Deluxe Past Performance

In Race 10, The Rebel, I made no individual race bets as Dublin and Lookin at Lucky were just too poorly placed on the tote board and the bettor's didn't bite at all on this 7 horse field that had three good horses, one OK horse, one so so horse and two that are still running. Lookin at Lucky made me take notice as I don't pay much attention to 2 YOs and he hadn't raced in a long time and never on dirt. Dublin is quickly becoming a journeyman, a Grade I winner early as a 2 YO and mostly likely capable of Grade II and III wins as a 3 YO. I had two Pick Four selections here and was fine.

My Analysis of Race 10, The Rebel, scrawled onto the DRF Deluxe Past Performance

I spent some time on the large field that greeted me in Race 11. Being a confident handicapper (not arrogant, humble but confident) I never expect to be out of the Pick 4 by this point so i take the handicap to the extreme limit. I settled on three runners that I liked so much i boxed them as a trifecta too: Regions Reward/3, Logic/9 and Corralito's Way/10. I had this end of the Pick Four covered as well. The trifecta cost $12 dollars and returned $38 for my troubles.

My Analysis of Race 11, a MDC 15.5K scrawled onto the DRF Deluxe Past Performance

So where did it fall apart? Race 8. I went with two instead of three selections. I budgeted a $50 dollar-ish Pick Four but I got a bit foolish and thought better of myself. It happens, but if it happens to often, you leave, yes, money on the table!


Study your winning bets and the losers equally. While its always easier to savor the thrill of newfound money in your pocket, the key to getting more is understanding where your strengths and weaknesses are and improving.

Have fun, Turk out!