Anatomy of a Bet: The $100,000 Laurel Turf Cup Exacta

Hello Don Julio: Photo Gulfstream Park Twitter Feed

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

Simple.  I don't say that to boast, I say that to point out opportunities exist to make money in this game.  In this morning's blog post, I repeatedly stated that the $100,000 Laurel Park Turf Cup was a wide open race.  The morning line and presumptive post time chalk, Hello Don Julio looked vulnerable, but from whom?  An eleven horse field of vanilla.  For the first time perhaps ever in the long history of The Turk, I suggested an exacta bet with The Turk's top two favorites over the field.  For a $20 bet, it looked like the downside case was Hello Don Julio won and Final Copy at $3.70 odds, Renown at $5.20 or Vintage Matters at $7.20 Placed, returning me about the value of the bet.  The upside was if some of the longer prices came in Place, and $115 to $1 Cooptado (Arg) did just that returning the Turk $130 or $110 net.  Cooptado (Arg) on paper looked rough, the 8 YO hadn't hit the board in 5 races in 2018, and unraced since June.  Working at Laurel over the main track, Trainer Thomas Morley did a nice job putting him in a good spot.  His late Timeform Pace fig is 102 but that late turn of foot has not been evident in any of this year's races.

Why'd I pick the field to Place?  Again, it was wide open on paper.  My Turk Fair Line illustrates this.  Am I retiring on this win?  No, but again, The Turk says it all the time, I'm a low risk, medium reward handicapper/Investor and I just keep carving out this type of wins that are offset partially by the losses, but overall positive ROI.

Churning out a positive return on investment has become the game to me.

Have fun with whatever your game is.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The $100K Laurel Park Turf Cup

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.

Wide Open!  That is what I would say to describe today's handicapping challenge, the $100,000 Laurel Park Turf Cup, which thanks to the track announcer, confirmed to me that the race is indeed on the turf today.  Twitter is a powerful tool for a handicapper who is trying to collect information.  I understand budgets are tight at the tracks, but a good social media poster who can respond to tweets is incredibly helpful.  Through 4 races while I write this the Turf is listed as good. 

Wide Open!  Let's get after it.





Renown (GB) enters off a show finish (Place through DQ) in the $100K John's Call Stakes at SAR in mid August.



Bottled up along the rail after breaking from 5 hole, Renown (GB) darted through a hole late showing as his  running line said "...good courage". 11 of 20 In the Money over grass with 8 wins, a 50% winner at this distance in 12 starts, distance (1/8 cut), class (same), and weight (-1) all pretty consistent with last time out for conditioner Elizabeth Voss who is 49% in the money and a 19% winner in 2018 over 37 starts in these conditions.

Hello Don Julio  enters off 1 3/8 $80K OC at SAR where he finished Place by a neck after leading most of the way.   9 of 16 in the money over grass, no wins in only one try at the distance for the 6 YO gelded son of Afleet Alex. Class, Distance and Weight (+2) all step ups.

Postulation is down over past two races but is going with Michael Matz today for first time (29% in 7 tries with first timers). Training sharply, the 6 Yo gelded son of Harlan's Holiday is going at same distance, with similar class and weight (+1), 8 Win-Places in 19 career starts. 

Tizzarunner has 2 wins in 3 Laurel Park starts and breaks from far outside post today.  Winless in 2018, class dropped from Grade 2 to 3 to $97K and now $100K stakes.  Last time out at Ellis Park  he finished well beaten in the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Preview. 

Final Copy and Vintage Matters break 1 and 2 on the inside respectively.  Final Copy has no wins in 5 tries at the distance, drops in Class from Grade 2 Nijinsky at Woodbine at similar distance but picking up 3 pounds.  Over good turf he ran evenly throughout. Ontario bred Malibu Moon 4 YO trained by Roger Attfield. 

Vintage Matters hasn't won in 2 years and 2 months, only has 1 win in 11 turf tries and is 1 of 11 lifetime as well and is 6-1 Morning line incredibly.  Wide Open!

Not In Charge has nice late turn of foot and comes in with a 1 1/2 mile win overfirm turf on this course. Scuba , a 7 YO gelded son of Tapit, makes his 5th career turf start and is looking for win 2. 

I'm thinking that any of the field can PLACE but only a few logical winners, led by Renown and Hello Don Julio.  I'll be building exacta tickets after looking at the Will Pay's just before they head into the gate.

Have fun friends.

Turk Out!