Post Race Analysis of the Stakes Race Grab Bag: The Hendrie at Woodbine and The Californian at Hollywood

Layer Handicapping: WTF Turk?

I'm a layer handicapper;  I don't generally care which horse finishes first, second or last as long as I can predict which part of the field the horse will be in.  I break them into A, B, C and D, with A and B horses part of the Exotic ticket and C and below Toss Outs.  I provide shading sometimes with +/- but most of the time, I don't really care. 

Yesterday was a perfect example of layer handicapping, for on a day when both of my chalks finished dead last I still cashed 3 of 4 bets, winning two superfectas, one trifecta, and losing the fourth bet, a trifecta, when I refused to cover Clubhouse Ride in the top spot.  The bet would have been a net negative cash winner so I'm glad for that stroke of handicapper luck. 

All in all, a nice $75 net day for 1 hour of handicapping which could have been nicer but the overbet horses found a win to win both races, a bit of handicapper non luck; every action has an equal and opposite reaction I reckon!




At Woodbine, Delightful Mary off the very long layoff was the best by far.  Sid Attard with Heavenly Pride, also off a very long layoff, was second best.  Never be afraid of long layoffs when sharp trainers have been working them consistently for six weeks or more;  these sharp eyed men study the conditions book and find good spots to get the horse back in the gate. Little River, as in her last race, couldn't handle the distance and Trainer Cox must reconsider two turns.



At Hollywood, Clubhouse Ride did what I bet against, winning after 5 straight Place finishes.  I knew Liaison would be bet very heavy, so with those two 1-2 there was NO value at all in this race.  My chalk, Blueskiesandrainbows couldn't sustain the speed and with his loss, the value of the bet evaporated.  I lost $7 bucks on the Super and I could have won the Trifecta but not made any additional money  as I said prerace I would exclude Clubhouse Ride from the Trifecta top spot, the only change from my Superfecta base handicap.  The Tri won $55.70, the bet would have cost $56, so there you have it. 



This was less a demonstration in top skill as instead an example of solid handicapping, decent betting, and positive ROI, albeit a modest payout.  I am on the march to bang out positive ROI week in and out at The Turk, so I'll take the money and run.

Enjoy your Sunday Friends;  I can't say I'm giddy about the Belmont; I'm not sure what I'll handicap next week, and while I will wager something on the Belmont, I know there is better value out there amongst the graded stakes and I just have to find it.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 3 Hendrie at Woodbine and Grade 2 Californian at Hollywood Park

Blueskiesandrainbows

The Turk was looking for interesting races that he could bet and win today. It seems like an obvious statement, but many horse players want to play a specific track regardless of the ticket or the conditions before them. I say, tilt the field in a way that works for you.

I am avoiding the New York State bred card at Belmont like the plague because the racing to me just isn't that compelling, and while as a fan I'm interested in a couple of the races at Penn, it's a track I seldom handicap and I don't plan to start, so I'll pass. I settled on two polytracks, but two tracks I have a good record of handicapping well. I guess the point I am trying to make is to look for betting opportunities where the odds are a bit tilted in your favor; just because you are at the track doesn't mean you have to bet those races. I am good with turf races between 8 and 10 furlongs but I know I'm not very good with 12 furlong races, so I skip those. I skip muddy and sloppy tracks when possible, I skip races moved off turf, I skip 2 YO races and seldom do I handicap 3 YO filly races. Know thy self and know which situations produce your worst results and avoid those.

Let's get it on!



The Hendrie at Woodbine is a very interesting race as most of the field have run quite a bit over that track and most have had success. Any of four gals has a chance to win and my tepid chalk is Little River, with Da Silva up. The four year old Exchange Rate daughter raced well at KEE and then came home to go win at WO in early May. Trainer Cox and Da Silva win 40% of the time together in 15 tries. 4 fake dirt tries have all ended in the money.

Acting Naughty from post 1 won the Grade 3 Whimsical in late April at WO by a head over Starship Universe and Katie Get Excited. 6 wins in 13 fake dirt tries and 13 of 16 in the money on WO fake dirt.

Trainer Sid Attard brings Heavenly Pride here off a layoff since September. The 5 YO Sky Mesa Mare has been training steady since April and should offer a nice price.

Trainer Mark Casse goes one step further, bringing Delightful Mary in off a layoff since March 2012. The 5 YO Florida bred is training very sharply and has three wins in 4 starts at WO.

Starship Universe and Katie Get Excited are in the mix for the exotics while I tossed Man Stuff and Actionontwo from any prizes. 20 cent Superfecta and 20 cent Triactors are on the menu and I'll place one of each.

At Hollywood, the Grade 2 Californian at 1 1/8 miles over fake dirt is a pretty competitive as well. I'm also present a tepid chalk here as well, Blueskiesandrainbows, pictured above. Hollendorfer and Bejarano are 31% together in 48 tries at HP and 32% together over running year in 123 tries. That's money. Weakened at 1 1/16 last time out.

Liaison, 6th in the Kentucky Derby and this year's Santa Mile winnerwon the Grade 3 Leyroy that Blueskiesandrainbows faded in. Kettle Corn was there too. Hmmm......



Liaison will be bet hard: 6 of 6 in the money on fake dirt, 5 of 5 in the money Hollywood, but no wins in 3 starts at the distance.

Kettle Corn is impressive as well: 12 of 13 in the money on fake dirt and 7 of 7 in the money at Hollywood Park. 7 wins in 21 starts lifetime for the 6 YO Candy Ride (Arg) trained by Sadler with Espinoza up.

The betting here for me is against Clubhouse Ride.  5 straight Place finishes and only 3 wins in 27 tries.  I respect the 5 YO, but not enough to back the win in the Trifecta, only in the Super. 

Oilisblackgold, Holladay Road and Batti Man (Arg) are too sharp to not consider for a minor place on the ticket, so no tosses in this one. 10 Cent Super and $1 Trifecta options are available and I'm going to try one of each.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 13, 2009: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I at Churchill Downs

The Little Turk was campaigning for glory on the soccer field this past weekend. The chance to watch him run free up the wing gave the Big Turk a chance to decompress after handi-blogging nearly 100 races this calendar year. I had several races set aside this week to handicap, but after spending an hour or so on the Stephen Foster field, I could not find the focus to think of any other hoofbeats.

Resetting the pre-race buzz, I looked at this race as a chance for Einstein to once again prove to the racing world that he is the best older horse racing right now in North America. The Pitts trainee doesn't care about the surface at all, he just runs and wins. I also expected a big coming out party for Researcher and Finallymadeit.

The Turk often talks about the best bets being the ones you don't make. I couldn't settle on a bet strategy that I liked so I passed on betting at all. That proved to be a good move, as two horses I considered candidates for Show and the 4th spot on the Superfecta, Macho Again and Asiatic Boy, went right to the wire for the top two spots, while Einstein had a horrible trip and only his class allowed him to find Show.


Race 10 CD: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I: 1 1/8 miles on my ol' Kentucky home dirt for 3 YO and Up.



Watch the trips and tip your hat to the winner.



The race I wanted to handicap this weekend was The Californian at Hollywood Park. Congrats to the former claimer Informed, a horse I would not have picked. The best bets are sometimes the ones we can't make because jr. is playing soccer. Go Fire!